Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Polar Vortex / Stratosphere Watch 2022 / 2023


Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Frost and snow. A quiet autumn day is also good.
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl

I'm struck at 10 days how far off centre the 10hpa vortex is becoming, and through the layers it is lacking coherence of shape. A 90 degree twisted stretch profile. The extent to which a setup like this puts it close to being wobbled and squashed to the point of no return I do not have the skill to see - but for a mid December vortex it looks rather unhappy to me.

Could contain: Necklace, Jewelry, Accessories

  • Insightful 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
1 minute ago, Catacol said:

I'm struck at 10 days how far off centre the 10hpa vortex is becoming, and through the layers it is lacking coherence of shape. A 90 degree twisted stretch profile. The extent to which a setup like this puts it close to being wobbled and squashed to the point of no return I do not have the skill to see - but for a mid December vortex it looks rather unhappy to me.

Could contain: Necklace, Jewelry, Accessories

It’s the baroclinic tilt throughout the Strat that will be all important in bringing the Strat down. Lovely view there

  • Like 2
  • Insightful 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
3 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

The 12z gfs brings the 10 hpa zonal flow down to 10 m/s late on in week 2.  That’s v low for December. 

There is a reversal at 1 hpa above 80 N 

That’s good and close to what I had worked out just looking at the models. Tilt excellent too. Just a few more pumps of hot air and the balloon will fly and the Strat will be brought down. What’s good is that we are seeing a consistent but strengthening signal here, and I believe similar with Eps. Perhaps we will just get a SSW before Jan - either way it will be a close run thing. 

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
  • Insightful 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Scunthorpe
  • Location: Scunthorpe

Could contain: Plot, Chart, Heat Map

It's still showing up and not only weaker than average in the stat but also look at the increasing signal for a weak jet in the trop which only means one thing, blocking.

The main thing is where the blocking is

Strange that in this WQBO winter as well as the previous one in 2020/21 we have signals for a SSW yet in the EQBO winter of 2021/22 we came no where near getting even a minor warming

What happened to the EQBO enhancing SSW prospects whilst WQBO reducing them?

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
3 hours ago, chionomaniac said:

Perhaps we will just get a SSW before Jan - either way it will be a close run thing. 

As long as a SSW doesn't lead us into a milder pattern further down the line?!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
13 hours ago, Don said:

As long as a SSW doesn't lead us into a milder pattern further down the line?!

Blocking patterns don’t tend to last for more than three weeks so I’d say an ssw would be welcome and the earlier in Jan the better.  However, ec46 and glosea aren’t seeing anything at this time. most extended modelling are seeing a westerly return for Jan so if we’ve had a two or three weeks of decent cold in December then maybe a roll of the dice for Jan and feb post ssw  would be reasonable !  

Edited by bluearmy
  • Like 3
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
48 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Blocking patterns don’t tend to last for more than three weeks so I’d say an ssw would be welcome and the earlier in Jan the better.  However, ec46 and glosea aren’t seeing anything at this time. most extended modelling are seeing a westerly return for Jan so if we’ve had a two or three weeks of decent cold in December then maybe a roll of the dice for Jan and feb post ssw  would be reasonable !  

All the more reason to make the most of this current cold spell and hope it delivers some widespread snow before it ends!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl

The lower Strat still showing weak zonal winds even though at the top normal speeds abound.

Just shows the disconnect that continues towards Christmas.

Could contain: Plot, Chart, Heat MapCould contain: Person, Face, Head 

The upper vortex continues to get pushed around from wave 1 warmings.

All points to another couple of weeks of troposphere blocking and a southerly tracking jet.

  • Like 2
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Scunthorpe
  • Location: Scunthorpe
24 minutes ago, phil nw. said:

The lower Strat still showing weak zonal winds even though at the top normal speeds abound.

Just shows the disconnect that continues towards Christmas.

Could contain: Plot, Chart, Heat MapCould contain: Person, Face, Head 

The upper vortex continues to get pushed around from wave 1 warmings.

All points to another couple of weeks of troposphere blocking and a southerly tracking jet.

Definitely similar to 1995 and 2010 in that regard. Both of those had robust vortex at 10hpa with a big disconnect below in the trop.

What's different to those years is the repeated wave 1 warmings which could be what makes the difference and ensures a chance of longer cold rather than a front loaded winter that goes away.

1995/96 is a better match for a more all rounded cold winter over 2010/11

Seems it's the MJO and the EP La Nina driving the pattern this year instead of that pesky vortex.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

A sudden change in the ec 46 takes the zonal wind right up above 50m/s just after Xmas before it drops back towards average through the first half of Jan 

certainly a marked shift from this model - I have noticed the gfs fi beginning to ramp up the 10 hpa flow later week 2.  Some runs are  bringing the strengthening flow down to the trop but at a latitude around 50N 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
3 hours ago, bluearmy said:

A sudden change in the ec 46 takes the zonal wind right up above 50m/s just after Xmas before it drops back towards average through the first half of Jan 

certainly a marked shift from this model - I have noticed the gfs fi beginning to ramp up the 10 hpa flow later week 2.  Some runs are  bringing the strengthening flow down to the trop but at a latitude around 50N 

I hope those who have had snow during this cold spell have made the most of it!!  Amazing how things can fall apart so rapidly!!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Swineshead, Boston, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Swineshead, Boston, Lincolnshire

This isn't what you want to see if we are looking for a SSW?

Could contain: Plot, Chart, Smoke Pipe

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
19 minutes ago, Frostbite1980 said:

This isn't what you want to see if we are looking for a SSW?

Could contain: Plot, Chart, Smoke Pipe

No it's not!!  A pear shaped winter?!!  Going by that we can expect another PV of doom moving forward!

Edited by Don
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Swineshead, Boston, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Swineshead, Boston, Lincolnshire
7 minutes ago, Don said:

No it's not!!  A pear shaped winter?!!  Going by that we can expect another PV of doom moving forward!

I Know the vortex isn't coupled but after the beating up of the upper vortex I was surprised to see this.......some of the CFS runs going for a record strength at 10 hpa

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
2 minutes ago, Frostbite1980 said:

I Know the vortex isn't coupled but after the beating up of the upper vortex I was surprised to see this.......some of the CFS runs going for a record strength at 10 hpa

We will likely know all about it when the vortex does couple according to the CFS and looks like it's happening now? 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Swineshead, Boston, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Swineshead, Boston, Lincolnshire
5 minutes ago, Don said:

We will likely know all about it when the vortex does couple according to the CFS and looks like it's happening now? 

Maybe Chio or Blue will be able to help answer this one 😝

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.

I would say personally that we still have a bit of time on our hands - perhaps until the end of the year before upper zonal winds will start to propagate to the trop. Until this point the coupling will still be broken.

At every level except 2hPA the strat u wind is around average and this decreases the lower you get

2hPA

Could contain: Plot, Chart

10Hpa

Could contain: Plot, Chart, Shark, Sea Life, Fish, Animal

70Hpa

Could contain: Plot, Chart

!00Hpa

 

Could contain: Plot, Chart

  • Thanks 6
  • Insightful 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Swineshead, Boston, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Swineshead, Boston, Lincolnshire
32 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

I would say personally that we still have a bit of time on our hands - perhaps until the end of the year before upper zonal winds will start to propagate to the trop. Until this point the coupling will still be broken.

At every level except 2hPA the strat u wind is around average and this decreases the lower you get

2hPA

Could contain: Plot, Chart

10Hpa

Could contain: Plot, Chart, Shark, Sea Life, Fish, Animal

70Hpa

Could contain: Plot, Chart

!00Hpa

 

Could contain: Plot, Chart

Thanks for that Chio, does this mean that the chances of a SSW is decreasing if the trop couples in the new year?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
1 hour ago, Frostbite1980 said:

Thanks for that Chio, does this mean that the chances of a SSW is decreasing if the trop couples in the new year?

No SSW is to do with trop wave activity 

  • Like 2
  • Insightful 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
5 hours ago, chionomaniac said:

I would say personally that we still have a bit of time on our hands - perhaps until the end of the year before upper zonal winds will start to propagate to the trop. Until this point the coupling will still be broken.

Thanks for the thoughts.  Hmm, perhaps my earlier comments were a little hasty?! 🙄

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Scunthorpe
  • Location: Scunthorpe

Could contain: Chart, Heat Map

The disconnect shows up nicely here with those above average red anomalies from 40hpa upwards and those below average blue anomalies below 40hpa.

I'd say we are still very much game on for trop blocking and a year similar to 1995/96.

  • Like 2
  • Thanks 2
  • Insightful 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
  • UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

    UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2024-03-28 09:16:06 Valid: 28/03/2024 0800 - 29/03/2024 0600 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH - THURS 28 MARCH 2024 Click here for the full forecast

    Nick F
    Nick F
    Latest weather updates from Netweather

    More rain on the way: Storm Nelson brings gales Thursday, but rain and wind easing for Easter

    Spells of rain or showers with sunshine in between affecting most areas today, snow over northern hills. Storm Nelson arrives tomorrow, bringing gales to southern coasts and windy elsewhere with further showers. Showers and wind easing somewhat into the Easter Weekend. Read the full update here

    Netweather forecasts
    Netweather forecasts
    Latest weather updates from Netweather

    UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

    UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2024-03-27 09:35:27 Valid: 27/03/2024 0900 - 28/03/2024 0600 THUNDERSTORM WATCH - WEDS 27 MARCH 2024 Click here for the full forecast

    Nick F
    Nick F
    Latest weather updates from Netweather
×
×
  • Create New...