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Polar Vortex / Stratosphere Watch 2022 / 2023


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Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
42 minutes ago, Coopsy said:

Canadian forecasters are being quite bullish about a very cold February due to an SSW and subsequent split and a chunk of PV sitting over Canada as a result. Not sure what that would mean for the UK though. 

Depends where it sits in Canada I suppose. 

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Posted
  • Location: Canmore, AB 4296ft|North Kent 350ft|Killearn 330ft
  • Location: Canmore, AB 4296ft|North Kent 350ft|Killearn 330ft
50 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Depends where it sits in Canada I suppose. 

True - it’s a large country. They seem to think W Canada at the moment 

Edited by Coopsy
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Posted
  • Location: Scunthorpe
  • Location: Scunthorpe

Some very warm 2nd warmings showing up on the GEM 00z in particular although the GFS 00z Op run has a good go too

Could contain: Plot, Chart, Outdoors, Nature, Map, Person, Face, Head, Atlas, DiagramCould contain: Plot, Chart, Nature, Outdoors, Map, Atlas, DiagramCould contain: Nature, Outdoors, Plot, Chart, Map, Hurricane, Storm

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GEM 00z P12 at +324h

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WOW

First +20C warming I have ever seen modelled on the GEM

Edited by SqueakheartLW
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Posted
  • Location: Cork City
  • Location: Cork City

This may be a stupid question but I'll ask anyway. With a warming world is there more likelihood of SSWs due to the potential for higher temps to reach the Arctic and cause a displacement or SSW?

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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
9 hours ago, Coopsy said:

Canadian forecasters are being quite bullish about a very cold February due to an SSW and subsequent split and a chunk of PV sitting over Canada as a result. Not sure what that would mean for the UK though. 

Possibly not great news if a chunk of vortex extends to Greenland.

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

The gfs ops have been taking the day 14/16 spv high up from nw scandi towards Iceland. seems it’s dangerous to dismiss gfs ops when they begin to show some continuity at 10hpa.  eps has been solid on nw scandi at day 14/15. This morning they show this 

Could contain: Purple, Spiral
 

So with the upper strat on the drift and still warmings ongoing, it’s tough to make any calls.  If we do see a ssw later this week, it will be a minor displacement. It looks to have no effect in our latitude. Latest cross section of gfs op shows reversal over the polar field from top to bottom  - you could extrapolate that this allows for blocking north of 70N and we could strike lucky but current forecast placement of trop vortex segments is not promising in that respect for nw europe 

 

Edited by bluearmy
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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

Does anybody know how low the GFS brings zonal winds by the 4th, that’s a funky chart.

spacer.png

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Posted
  • Location: Istanbul/Turkey
  • Location: Istanbul/Turkey

Friends, I recommend you to translate my article about European Siberia's and SSW into English and read it. I studied the situations in which the Siberian high pressure came to the west.

Now we see many parallels with SSW in winter 2012.

2014b.gif?w=640
WEATHERINDEXTR.WORDPRESS.COM

Sibirya Yükseği Ocak ayında Tiber Platosunun kuzeyinde Moğolistan-Rusya sınırı etrafında ortaya çıkan bir termik antisiklondur. Yazın termik alçaklar da olduğu gibi sinoptiğin sırt tarafında oluk(trof) tarafına göre daha...

 

Edited by Havaturkali
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Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl

Looking through the layers from the latest gfs run the warming is well underway and by day 5 we can see the displacement  starting to show.

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Looking at the 500 pattern for the same time

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It can be deduced that this looks like a  good connection to whats playing out higher up with the main spv/tpv favouring our side of the Arctic.This doesn't bode well for higher latitude blocking if the displacement plays out like this.

Later frames show this trend continuing with the spv being squeezed but not fractured on our side of the pole.

Day 10 below

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We know the zonal winds are forecasted to slow but a chunk of vortex left to our north west is a hurdle unless we find a spell of tropical forcing to amplify the pattern later on.The mjo is not currently in a favourable phase but may well get there later in February.

Given the time lag this is making any change to a cold pattern very late in the day but for now that seems the only straw to clutch given the way this displacement is forecasted to go.

 

 

Edited by phil nw.
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Posted
  • Location: East Ham, London
  • Location: East Ham, London

Evening all 🙂

Forgive my ignorance on this but I've always thought the continued Wave 1 attacks on the PV at 10 hpa don't do us any favours because all they do is send the PV back to Canada/Greenland.

At the far end of FI, we are seeing the end of that and the much diminished PV is left staggering round.

I'm therefore thinking 7-10 days after that is when I would be expecting us to get to some favourable conditions for cold weather fans.

I don't know if the strat is coupled to the trop currently (or really what that means) but the Wave 1 push from Siberia keeps the PV in NE Canada and maintains a strong jet through the North Atlantic - I think we're in this position for the next 2-3 weeks.

I've thought mid-Feb was when we would see a decisive pattern change to some late winter cold for the British Isles - the softening up of the PV and the consequent relaxation in zonal wind speeds are part of this but we do need other pieces of the puzzle (MJO) to fall favourably.

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Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Frost and snow. A quiet autumn day is also good.
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl

Latest EPS strat 10hpa forecast

Could contain: Plot, Chart

Looks to me that chances of an SSW in the near term have faded. Mid Feb knockout blow possible but that will depend on how trop patterns setup over the coming weeks. Disappointingly I suspect the core of winter, and the coldest part of February, are now a done deal in terms of top down impacts and with the MJO working its way through the IO we are a fair way from getting any pacific support for high lat blocking. GFS products show that the warming we are now seeing happen is shunting the vortex over towards Europe

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and the overall vertical profile shows a similar shunt through most of the layers

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For winter lovers I think this is a disappointing position for the end of the month. Not much to hang a hat on in terms of reconnecting with continental cold as the current cold spell, snowless for many, comes to an end.

Not quite a winter is over post....but I suspect we are in for a flatter, milder, wetter spell of 2-3 weeks before we see if we can get a late winter finale as February moves into March and the MJO comes back into the reckoning along with possible strat developments. From a personal perspective it is now once in the last 10 years that I have seen significant lying snow (BFTE 2018) and that was in March. I cannot remember the last time Dec-Feb brought snowfall to the south - maybe 2012? Would have to check my camera roll. We have had some good frosts this year, more than I can remember in many years, but overall it is getting ever more difficult and draining to be a snowhunter in the UK unless you live at altitude or in the far north. Que Sera.

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2 hours ago, Catacol said:

LWe have had some good frosts this year, more than I can remember in many years, but overall it is getting ever more difficult and draining to be a snowhunter in the UK unless you live at altitude or in the far north. Que Sera.

A bit off topic, but here on the IOW we had 2 amazing falls of snow in January and March 2013, 3 falls in 2018 and about 5-8cm worth in 2019 away from the east and south coast of the island. All cold was strat triggered too, with 2019 being a displacement. 🙂 
No different to the previous 40 years here really. Our worst snow drought was from Dec 1987-Nov 1993, with 1991 having a slight dusting. We are yet to beat that!

 

Edited by IW Met
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Posted
  • Location: Glasgow
  • Location: Glasgow
On 25/01/2023 at 21:22, damianslaw said:

This thread has gone very quiet after a flurry of activity in recent days, is it likely to stay moribund rest of the winter season now?

With 90% confidence I'd say Yes.  Mediocre winter.

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

Surprised no one has posted this in here!!!!😊

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Posted
  • Location: NorthWest Central London, United Kingdom
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snowy Winters, Hot and Sunny Summers - Never Mild!
  • Location: NorthWest Central London, United Kingdom
12 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Surprised no one has posted this in here!!!!😊

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Looks good, but too much scatter to say with confidence that it would entail colder weather for the UK or not......

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Posted
  • Location: Isle of Lewis
  • Weather Preferences: Sun in summer, snow in winter, wind in Autumn and rainbows in the spring!
  • Location: Isle of Lewis
3 minutes ago, mpkio2 said:

Looks good, but too much scatter to say with confidence that it would entail colder weather for the UK or not......

That's a significant number of runs below 0... 

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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
16 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Surprised no one has posted this in here!!!!😊

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Hasn't been particularly reliable though, flip flopping around between updates.

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
27 minutes ago, mpkio2 said:

Looks good, but too much scatter to say with confidence that it would entail colder weather for the UK or not......

Look at the mean(thick blue line),...getting close to a reversal so i am taking note

23 minutes ago, Don said:

Hasn't been particularly reliable though, flip flopping around between updates.

yes it has but i suspect this could be more on the mark as the polar night jet weekens thanks to the sun getting higher at higher latitudes.

Edited by Allseasons-si
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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

That's a poor update albeit not surprising.

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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
50 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

That's a poor update albeit not surprising.

A poor update in the sense that it could lead to a cold start to spring?

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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey

Polar Stratospheric Clouds seen from

Aberdeenshire.  They are rare clouds as -85c needed high up in stratosphere for these to occur.  Being seen so far south latitudinally is also rare on top of them rare in the first place.  Wonder what ramifications will come from this?

 

BFTP

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
5 hours ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Polar Stratospheric Clouds seen from

Aberdeenshire.  They are rare clouds as -85c needed high up in stratosphere for these to occur.  Being seen so far south latitudinally is also rare on top of them rare in the first place.  Wonder what ramifications will come from this?

 

BFTP

None. It's just symptomatic of the displaced vortex, it quickly takes control.

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Posted
  • Location: Isle of Lewis
  • Weather Preferences: Sun in summer, snow in winter, wind in Autumn and rainbows in the spring!
  • Location: Isle of Lewis

Any updates on the zonal winds graph ? 

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