November 2022 C.E.T. and EWP contests -- final month of the 2021-22 competitions

[Roger J Smith]

This month is the final stage of the 2021-2022 competition year. CET November historical information in part 1 below, EWP in part two. Good luck !!

 

C.E.T. forecast competition -- averages and extremes for November

(note: all data adjusted to v2.0 CET)

Recent months are shown in three groups, mildest (bold), median (italics) and coldest (underlined). The ties mentioned are in one decimal values from v2.0, but the table recognizes ranks based on two decimals not shown. Many but not all values from about 1974 to 2005 are now lower by 0.1 or 0.2 than previously in the CET legacy version. Various averages have also come down 0.1 or 0.2 as a result. 

15.5 ... warmest day (5th, 1938)

14.4 ... warmest day in second half (22nd, 1947)

 9.9 ... warmest Nov 1994

 9.5 ... second warmest Nov 2011
 9.5 ... third warmest Nov 1818 
 9.4 ... tied fourth warmest Nov 2015 and 1938
 9.3 ... sixth warmest Nov 1743

 9.2 ... seventh warmest Nov 1730

 9.1 ... eighth warmest Nov 1817

 8.9 ... ninth warmest Nov 1881 

 8.7 ... tenth warmest Nov 1939

 8.6 ... tied 12th warmest Nov 2009 (with 1821)

 8.5 ... tied 14th warmest Nov 2014, 2020 (with 1899, 1951, 1953)

 8.4 ... tied 19th warmest Nov 2002 (with 1913)

 8.3 ... tied 21st warmest Nov  2018 (with 1978)

 8.2 ... tied 23rd warmest Nov 1997 (with 1822 and 1963) 

 8.1 ... tied 26th warmest 1729, 1946

 8.0 ... tied 28th warmest Nov 2003, 2006 (with 1661, 1710)

 7.8 ... ... 1984

 7.7 ... ... 1982, 1999

 7.6 ... ... 1981, 1986, 2004 

 7.5 ... ... 1995, 2001  ... ... ...

 7.4 ... ... 1983 ... ... ... ... ...... ---- average of 2001-2021 ----  

 7.3 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ---- average of 1991-2020 ---- (also 1992-2021)

 7.2 ... ... 1992, 2007, 2021 ... ... ... ...

 7.1 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... .. 

 7.0 ... ... 2008 ... ... ... ... ... ---- average of 1981-2010 ----

 6.9 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...... 

 6.8 ... ... 2000, 2012, 2017 ... ... 

 6.7 ... ... 1990 ... ... ... ... ... ---- average of 1971-2000 ---- 

 6.6 ... ... 1991 ... ... ... ... ... ... ......  

 6.5 ... ... ... ... ... ... ...... 

 6.4 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ---- average of 1961-1990, 1901-2000 ----

 6.3 ... ... 1987 ... ...

 6.2 ... ... 2019 ... ... 

 6.1 ... ... 2005, 2013 ... ... ... ... ... ---- average of all years 1659-2021 ---- (6.07)

 6.0 ... ... 1989, 1998 ... ...

 5.9 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ......  ---- average of 1801-1900 ----

 5.8 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ......   ---- average of 1701-1800 ----

 5.7 ... ... 1996

 5.6 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...  ---- average of 1659-1700 ----

 5.5 ... ... 2016 ... ... 

 5.1 ... ... 2010 ... ...

 5.0 ... ... 1988 ... ... 

 4.5 .... ... 1993 ... ... 

 3.9 .... coldest in recent years (tied 20th overall) 1985

 3.3 .... tied eighth coldest 1740, 1746, 1786, 1919, 1923

 3.2 .... tied sixth coldest 1862 with 1910

 3.1 .... fifth coldest Nov 1851

 3.0 .... fourth coldest Nov 1684
 2.9 .... third coldest Nov 1807
 2.8 .... second coldest Nov 1915
 2.3 .... coldest Nov 1782

--0.6 ... earliest sub-zero mean (7th, 1791)

--2.1 ... coldest in first half (15th, 1965)
--4.0 ... coldest day (28th, 2010) 
__________________________________________________

 

Enter your CET forecast by Monday, October 31st at midnight, or with increasing late penalties on the first three days of November.

===============================================================================

(2) Optional E.W.P. forecast contest -- November 2022

__ contest is scored using Hadley EWP data __

__ winter month snowfall is converted by liquid equivalent, roughly 10:1 reduction factor, e.g. 10 cm snow = 10 mm precip __

 

202.5 mm __ 1852 _ wettest 1766-2021 ... also second wettest month to Oct 1903

200.8 mm __ 1770 _ 2nd wettest ... also third wettest month overall

196.5 mm __ 1940 _ wettest of 20th century... 1929 had 195.9 mm

192.1 mm __ 2009 _ wettest since 1981

110.2 mm __ 1925-54 highest 30-year average for Nov (since 1766-95)

106.1 mm __ mean for 1991-2020 

104.4 mm __ mean for 1992-2021

100.4 mm __ mean for 1981-2010

 93.6 mm __ mean for all data 1766-2021

 76.9 mm __ 1845-74 lowest 30-year average for Nov (since 1766-95)

 41.9 mm __ 2021 _ driest since 1981 

 23.1 mm ___1805 _  second driest 1766-2021

 17.0 mm ___1945 _ driest 1766-2021 

___________________________ ** __________________________

Recent November EWP  ...  

2021 _ 41.9 mm ... ... 2020 _ 67.9 mm ... ... 2019 _ 138.1 mm

2018 _ 104.9 ... ... 2017 _ 81.0 ... ... 2016 _ 116.6 ... ... 2015 _ 126.7 ... ... 2014 _ 126.8

2013 _ 79.2 ... ... 2012 _ 135.8 ... ... 2011 _ 52.9 ... ... 2010 _ 97.5 ... ... 2009 _ 192.1

>>> Enter your EWP forecast in mm with your CET forecast, same deadlines 

Good luck in this final contest of the current competition year. 

Edited October 31, 2022 by Roger J Smith

[feb1991blizzard]

6.9c and 51mm rain  please -   might still be in with a shout of annual (particularly ewp) (although doubt it) so worth just getting something up early anyway - early indicators suggesting a little below average on both fronts.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

I might enter this again…life has stabilised.   A ‘bang’ may happen in Nov….will be in touch.  Great work RJS

[richie3846]

7.8c please

[Weather26]

7.6C and 96mm please.

[SteveB]

7.9c and 79mm please. 

[Bobd29]

8.2C and 84mm please

[WarwickshireLad]

8.7C for me please

[NeilN]

6.8c and 155mm

The month where the song "November Rain" comes true....

[Polar Gael]

7.3°C and 103.5mm for me please. 

[chilly milly]

7.6c and 45mm please

[JeffC]

6.8C and 80 mm please

Edited October 24, 2022 by DiagonalRedLine
Can't get rid of quote! (Edit: quote terminated - DRL)

[DiagonalRedLine]

A guess of 7.2*C and 60mm, please. 

Mild or warm start possible, but reckon it’ll get rather cold after mid-month with some frost and perhaps a spot of wintry weather.

[Summer18]

8.5C and 92mm please 

[Shillitocettwo]

With the revised CETs I see the first over 10.C month making it the warmest on record.

    Very little cold weather on offer at least in the CET zone with a notable exception....

    Around the 24th an horrific storm rivalling the Great Storm of 1987 will tear through the UK bringing havoc in its wake. Very notably it will see an insane temperature swing from highs exceeding 20.C around noon which will be wiped out to give blizzards by teatime and 0.C conditions on a vicious northerly cold front quickly chasing the warm one. 

  Very mild at 10.3.C and a wet 127mm to boot.

[Methuselah]

9.0C and 107mm please, Roger.

[Don]

1 hour ago, Shillitocettwo said:

With the revised CETs I see the first over 10.C month making it the warmest on record.

    Very little cold weather on offer at least in the CET zone with a notable exception....

    Around the 24th an horrific storm rivalling the Great Storm of 1987 will tear through the UK bringing havoc in its wake. Very notably it will see an insane temperature swing from highs exceeding 20.C around noon which will be wiped out to give blizzards by teatime and 0.C conditions on a vicious northerly cold front quickly chasing the warm one. 

  Very mild at 10.3.C and a wet 127mm to boot.

Sounds like the day after tomorrow!! 😱 😱

[WarwickshireLad]

On 20/10/2022 at 11:06, WarwickshireLad said:

8.7C for me please

Beginning to get worried even this will look conservative/too low but I will hold for now! 

[virtualsphere]

9.6C and 142mm please

[Don]

3 hours ago, WarwickshireLad said:

Beginning to get worried even this will look conservative/too low but I will hold for now! 

Go for a record breaking CET of 12C!!

[snowray]

8.1c and 100mm please.

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

7.4C and 88.2mm please

[I remember Atlantic 252]

9.1C and 194mm

[rwtwm]

8.8c and 120mm please

[Roger J Smith]

On 24/10/2022 at 04:26, Shillitocettwo said:

With the revised CETs I see the first over 10.C month making it the warmest on record.

    Very little cold weather on offer at least in the CET zone with a notable exception....

    Around the 24th an horrific storm rivalling the Great Storm of 1987 will tear through the UK bringing havoc in its wake. Very notably it will see an insane temperature swing from highs exceeding 20.C around noon which will be wiped out to give blizzards by teatime and 0.C conditions on a vicious northerly cold front quickly chasing the warm one. 

  Very mild at 10.3.C and a wet 127mm to boot.

That date is also new moon. The Daniel Defoe storm of 1703 was also at new moon (o.s. 26/11-27/11, would have been 8-9 Dec had the calendar moved to Gregorian dates in Britain as in Europe, that didn't happen until 1752). There would be added storm surge issues due to that lunar timing. 

Not saying this won't happen either, my assessment of the current pattern is that it could easily provide explosive deepening at almost any point, sea surface temps are running quite high and these unseasonable air masses will sooner or later overstress the system, you would think. Not sure if we would be waiting that long for the inevitable (although the details might be different, I would expect a strong storm to end up with slightly colder rather than dramatically colder temps). 

Will just put in a placeholder of 8.9 and 173 mm, think it could be rather like Nov 2009 unfortunately.