November 2022 C.E.T. and EWP contests -- final month of the 2021-22 competitions

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

I’ll go with another mild and wet month - 8.4c & 115mm.

[Andrew R]

10.1C, please.

[mulzy]

7.3C and 85mm please

[jonboy]

8.1 and 115mm please

[summer blizzard]

6.8C, 107mm.

Generally damp and cyclonic but the mean low shifts east as the month progresses.

 

 

 

[Stationary Front]

7.9 with 112mm please

[noname_weather]

8.4C and 132mm

[seaside 60]

7.9C

75MM

[damianslaw]

7.7 degrees. A very mild first two thirds, followed by a colder last third.

[Don]

This honestly gets more difficult every month but to hell, lets go with a CET of 7.4C (or 4.7C!!).  Mild or very mild first half with a tentatively cold second half, but who would seriously want to call this?!

Meanwhile, EWP of 92mm please.

[February1978]

8.3c and 94mm please

Unsettled and mild at first, settling down but still mildish

[J10]

8.0c and 120mm

 

[Kentish Man]

8.6C thanks

[Roger J Smith]

Posting this one minute before deadline to amend my own EWP forecast on time, J10 this does not change the order of my CET forecast which I am not amending (8.9) from its original 19th in the order. EWP changed from 173 to 113 mm.

 

Table of forecasts for November 2022

Numbers in brackets after Forecaster name refer to order of entry. You can still enter late up to end of Thursday 3rd of November with increasing late penalties applied. Those late entries will be edited into this table. 

CET _ EWP _ Forecaster (order) _______________ CET _ EWP _ Forecaster (order) ___________

10.3 _127.0_ shillitocettwo ( 12 ) ______________ 7.9 __ 79.0_ SteveB ( 03 ) __________________

10.1 __ 65.0_ syed2878 ( 29 ) __________________ 7.9 _ 105.0_ sunny_vale ( 23 ) _____________

10.1 _ --- ---_ Andrew R ( 45 ) ___________________7.9 __ 86.0_ Blast From The Past ( 26 ) ___

 9.9 __ --- --- _ Summer Sun ( 20 )_______________7.9 _ 112.0 _ Stationary Front ( 49 ) _____

 9.6 _142.0_ virtualsphere ( 14 ) _______________ 7.9 __ 75.0 _ seaside60 ( 51 ) ____________

 9.3 _122.0_ davehsug ( 35 ) ___________________ 7.8 _ --- --- _ Richie3846 ( 01 ) ______________

 9.1 _194.0_ I Remember Atlantic252 ( 17 ) ____ 7.8 _ 120.0 _ John88b ( 28 ) ________________

 9.1 _122.0_ Reef ( 25 ) _________________________ 7.7 __ 90.0_ Wold Topper ( 24 ) ____________ 

 9.0 _107.0_ Ed Stone ( 13 ) ____________________ 7.7 __ --- --- _damianslaw ( 52 ) ____________

 8.9 _113.0_ Roger J Smith ( 19 ) _______________ 7.6 __ 96.0_ weather26 ( 02 ) ______________

 8.9 _ --- --- _ Earthshine ( 27 ) __________________7.6 __ 45.0_ Chilly Milly ( 08 ) _______________ 

 8.9 _120.0 _ SLEETY ( L1-1 ) ____________________

 8.8 _120.0_ rwtwm ( 18 ) ______________________ 7.6 _ 103.0_ Mr Maunder ( 33 ) _____________

 8.8 _111.0_ Emmett Garland ( 22 ) ____________ 7.6 _ --- --- _ Walsall Wood Snow ( 39 ) ______ 

 8.7 _ --- ---_ WarwickshireLad ( 05 ) ___________ 7.5 _ 100.0_ DR(S)NO ( 34 ) __________________ 

 8.7 _ --- --- _Froze were the Days ( 31 ) ________ 7.4 __ 88.2_ Kirkcaldy Weather ( 16 ) ________

 8.7 _123.0_ stewfox ( 40 ) _____________________ 7.4 __ 92.0 _ Don ( 53 ) _______________________

 8.7 _ --- ---_ Mark Bayley ( 41 ) ________________ 7.3 _ 103.5_ Polar Gael ( 07 ) ________________

 8.6 _ --- ---_ Kentish Man ( 56 ) ________________ 7.3 __ 85.0 _ Mulzy ( 46 ) _____________________

 8.6 __ 97.0 _ dancerwithwings ( L1-2 ) _________

 8.5 __ 92.0 _ Summer18 ( 11 ) _________________7.3 _ 106.1_ 1991-2020 average (7.3 104.4 1992-2021)

 8.5 __ 70.0_ The PIT ( 32 ) _____________________ 7.2 __ 60.0_ DiagonalRedLine ( 10 ) __________

 8.4 __ 87.0_ Feb1991Blizzard ( 42 ) ___________ 7.1 _ 115.0_ Freeze ( 38 ) _____________________

 8.4 _115.0_ prolongedSnowLover ( 44 ) ______ 7.0 _ 100.4_ 1981-2010 average ______________

 8.4 _132.0_ noname_weather ( 50 ) __________ 6.9 __ 42.0_ Frigid ( 21 ) _____________________

 8.4 _133.0_ Booferking ( L1-3 ) ________________

 8.3 __ 94.0 _ February1978 ( 54 ) ______________6.8 _ 155.0_ NeilN ( 06 ) _____________________

 8.2 __ 84.0_ Bobd29 ( 04 ) ____________________ 6.8 __ 80.0 _ JeffC ( 09 ) _____________________

 8.1 _100.0_ snowray ( 15 ) ____________________ 6.8 _ 107.0_ Summer Blizzard ( 48 ) _________

 8.1 __ 97.0_ Midlands Ice Age ( 43 ) ___________ 6.6 __ 77.0_ Godber 1 ( 37 ) __________________

 8.1 _115.0_ Jonboy ( 47 ) ______________________ 6.4 __ 65.0_ daniel* ( 36 ) _____________________

 8.0 _102.0 _weather-history ( 30 ) ____________

 8.0 _120.0 _ J 10 ( 54 ) _________________________

 8.1 _102.0_ Consensus ______________________

 

56 on time forecasts, and three late so far, 59 total _ consensus (median) 8.1

============================================

 

EWP forecasts in order

194_ IRem ... 155_ NN ... 142_ virt .. 133_boof^ .. 132_non .. 127_shil ... 123_stew .. 122_ Reef, dave ..

120_rwtwm, John, J10,SLE^ .. 115_Fre,pSL,jon .. 113_ RJS .. 112_SF ... 111_EG .. 107 _EdS,SB

106.1_91-20 .. 105 _sunv .. 104.4 92-21 _ 103.5_PG .. 103_MrM .. 102_wx-his.. 100.4_81-10 ..

100_ snow, DR(S) .. 97_MIA,dww^ .. 96 _wx26 .. 94_Feb78 .. 92 _sum18,Don .. 90_WT .. 88.2 _KW ..

 87 _Feb91 .. 86 _BFTP .. 85 _Mul .. 84_bob ... 80_Jeff .. 79 _Ste ... 77 _ godb .. 75_sea .. 70_PIT

 65_syed, dan* .. 60_DRL .. 45_Chil .. 42_Frig

46 on time forecasts, three late so far (^) _ 49 total _ 102.0 mm median consensus

 

 

Edited November 10, 2022 by Roger J Smith
just fixing the appearance and removing stale dated info

[Don]

5 minutes ago, Roger J Smith said:

Posting this one minute before deadline to amend my own EWP forecast on time, J10 this does not change the order of my CET forecast which I am not amending (8.9) from its original 19th in the order. EWP changed from 173 to 113 mm.

Sorry you're going for such a high CET, Roger.  Any thoughts on winter as a whole?  Apologies if I've missed them!

[Roger J Smith]

My winter thoughts are basically mixed intervals of all kinds, possibly not too far above normal for the average but you figure it's bound to be slightly above (1991-2020 normals). I think there could be some rather strong storms in the mix, and perhaps one wintry spell which is most likely to come in December. 

By the way I agree with some who are saying mild then colder for November but I think the average will be over 10 in the middle third and it may be like 1978 which started to leak warmth late in the month after running very mild. Would not be surprised really by any outcome between 8 and 10. 

Edited November 1, 2022 by Roger J Smith

[SLEETY]

8.9 c 

120mm

Another mild month but think it will turn very much colder the last week or so. 

[Dancerwithwings]

8.6c & 97mm cheers 

[booferking]

8.4c 133mm rain thanks

[damianslaw]

November 1st marks the start of cold half of the year. However, first half of Nov is often very mild, milder than many a second half to April, largely due to mild minima.

[Roger J Smith]

CET November 1981-2010 averages and 1772-2021 extremes

______________________________________________________

 

Date ____CET mean__CET cum____MAX ___________ MIN ______ CET running mean (extreme values)

all data converted to CET v2.0 values (see note below table re 1981-2010)

 

01 Nov ___ 9.4 ______ 9.4 ______ 13.7 (1894) ______ 1.1 (1926) ___ 13.7 (1894) ____ 1.1 (1926)
02 Nov ___ 8.9 ______ 9.1 ______ 14.3 (1821) ______ 0.4 (1880) ___ 13.9 (1894) ____ 2.0 (1880)
03 Nov ___ 8.9 ______ 9.1 ______ 15.0 (1996) ______ 1.8 (1980) ___ 13.6 (1894) ____ 2.7 (1880)
04 Nov ___ 8.4 ______ 8.9 ______ 14.2 (1946) _____0.8 (1845&48) _ 13.1 (1996) ____2.7 (1880)
05 Nov ___ 8.2 ______ 8.8 ______ 15.5 (1938) ____ 0.8 (1801&1901) __12.7 (1894) __ 3.1 (1782)

06 Nov ___ 8.1 ______ 8.6 ______ 14.2 (2015) ______ 0.7 (1868) ___ 12.3 (1996) ____ 2.7 (1782)
07 Nov ___ 8.2 ______ 8.6 ______ 13.7 (2015) _____ --0.6 (1791) ___ 11.8 (1938) ____ 2.4 (1782)
08 Nov ___ 8.6 ______ 8.6 ______ 13.4 (1852) _____ --1.2 (1812) ___ 11.8 (1938) ____ 2.4 (1782)
09 Nov ___ 8.0 ______ 8.5 ______ 12.3 (1988) ______ 0.2 (1921) ____ 11.8 (1938) ____ 2.3 (1782)
10 Nov ___ 7.8 ______ 8.5 ______ 13.2 (1977&2015) __ 0.1 (1812) __ 11.7 (1938&2015) _ 2.4 (1782)
 
11 Nov ___ 8.2 ______ 8.4 ______ 13.8 (2015) ______ 0.3 (1828) ___ 11.9 (2015) _____ 2.4 (1782)
12 Nov ___ 8.1 ______ 8.4 _____ 13.8 (1938,1947)_ --1.5 (1919) __ 11.9 (1938) _____ 2.6 (1782)
13 Nov ___ 7.1 ______ 8.3 ______ 14.7 (1938) _____ --0.9 (1862) ___ 12.1 (1938) _____ 2.6 (1782)
14 Nov ___ 6.7 ______ 8.2 ______ 13.4 (1938) _____ --1.0 (1925) ___ 12.2 (1938) _____ 2.5 (1782&1919)
15 Nov ___ 6.7 ______ 8.1 ______ 13.5 (1821) _____ --2.1 (1965) ___ 12.0 (1938) _____ 2.3 (1919)

16 Nov ___ 6.7 ______ 8.0 ______ 13.3 (1997) _____ --2.3 (1901) ___ 11.9 (1938) _____ 2.1 (1919)
17 Nov ___ 6.3 ______ 7.9 ______ 12.9 (1997) _____ --2.0 (1841) ___ 11.8 (1938) _____ 2.3 (1919)
18 Nov ___ 6.6 ______ 7.8 ______ 12.7 (2020) ____ --1.3 (1798&1871) __11.6 (1938)__ 2.6 (1919)
19 Nov ___ 6.3 ______ 7.8 _____ 12.5 (1994&2003) _ --2.1 (1815) __ 11.4 (1938) _____ 2.9 (1786&1919)
20 Nov ___ 6.1 ______ 7.7 ______ 12.7 (2009) _____ --1.2 (1829) ___ 11.2 (1938) _____ 2.9 (1786)

21 Nov ___ 5.7 ______ 7.6 ______ 13.7 (1947) _____ --1.5 (1880) ___ 10.9 (1938) _____ 2.9 (1786)
22 Nov ___ 5.7 ______ 7.5 ______ 14.4 (1947) _____ --2.3 (1773) ___ 10.7 (1938) _____ 2.8 (1786)
23 Nov ___ 5.7 ______ 7.4 ______ 13.3 (1947) _____ --3.9 (1858) ___ 10.5 (1938) _____ 2.7 (1782)
24 Nov ___ 5.8 ______ 7.3 ______ 12.5 (1980) _____ --3.6 (1816) ___ 10.4 (1994) _____ 2.6 (1782)
25 Nov ___ 6.2 ______ 7.3 ______ 12.1 (1964) _____ --1.9 (1923) ___ 10.4 (1994) _____ 2.5 (1782)

26 Nov ___ 6.1 ______ 7.2 ______ 11.9 (1983) _____ --2.1 (1904) ___ 10.4 (1994) _____ 2.4 (1782)
27 Nov ___ 5.9 ______ 7.2 ______ 11.3 (1818) _____ --2.7 (1890) ___ 10.4 (1994) _____ 2.3 (1782)
28 Nov ___ 5.7 ______ 7.1 ______ 12.0 (1828) _____ --4.0 (2010) ___ 10.2 (1994) _____ 2.2 (1782)
29 Nov ___ 5.4 ______ 7.1 ______ 12.2 (1818) _____ --2.6 (1801) ___ 10.1 (1994) _____ 2.3 (1782)
30 Nov ___ 5.7 ______ 7.0 ______ 12.3 (2001) ___ --1.6 (1796&1973) __9.9 (1994) ___ 2.3 (1782)

I have reduced all 1981-2010 values by 0.1 as the end of month value of 7.1 in legacy CET is now 7.0 in v2.0.

This approximation may contain some slight errors though.

Note that legacy record lows have been substantially altered in a few cases, the -4.6 for 24 Nov 1904 went to -3.5 and is not even a daily record now, 1816 took that with -3.6. Also 23rd 1858 was -4.2 in legacy, but 28th 2010 at -4.0 (unchanged) is now the monthly record. 

_________________________________________________________________

1991-2020 CET daily and running means 

01 ___ 9.6 __ 9.6 _______ 11 ___ 8.1 __ 8.6 _______ 21 ___ 6.2 __ 7.9

02 ___ 9.1 __ 9.4 _______ 12 ___ 8.4 __ 8.6 _______ 22 ___ 6.3 __ 7.8

03 ___ 9.2 __ 9.3 _______ 13 ___ 7.6 __ 8.5 _______ 23 ___ 6.0 __ 7.7

04 ___ 8.7 __ 9.2 _______ 14 ___ 7.7 __ 8.4 _______ 24 ___ 6.3 __ 7.7

05 ___ 8.6 __ 9.0 _______ 15 ___ 7.7 __ 8.4 _______ 25 ___ 6.5 __ 7.6

06 ___ 8.5 __ 9.0 _______ 16 ___ 7.4 __ 8.4 _______ 26 ___ 6.6 __ 7.6

07 ___ 8.7 __ 8.9 _______ 17 ___ 6.8 __ 8.2 _______ 27 ___ 6.7 __ 7.6

08 ___ 8.4 __ 8.9 _______ 18 ___ 6.8 __ 8.2 _______ 28 ___ 6.4 __ 7.5

09 ___ 7.9 __ 8.7 _______ 19 ___ 6.4 __ 8.1 _______ 29 ___ 6.1 __ 7.5

10 ___ 7.9 __ 8.7 _______ 20 ___ 6.1 __ 8.0 _______ 30 ___ 5.8 __ 7.4

(these are from legacy CET, as the 1991-2020 monthly average has dropped to 7.3 in v2.0, it could be assumed that many of the above data points have dropped by 0.1 but some may be same and some down 0.2. I will be working on this issue eventually, many other data files to fix up with v2.0 now in play.

[Greyhound81]

5 hours ago, damianslaw said:

November 1st marks the start of cold half of the year. However, first half of Nov is often very mild, milder than many a second half to April, largely due to mild minima.

Does warmer SSTs = higher minimum temperatures, and stronger sun = higher maximum temperatures?

Edited November 2, 2022 by Greyhound81

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

I just hope it cools down over Europe sooner for ski resorts to open on time.

[Roger J Smith]

CET files not fully updated but values now appear in the full history section if not 2022 ... and the average so far is 10.7 C to third. 

EWP starts out wet, 22.7 mm to 2nd, adding perhaps 5-6 more on 3rd (rain mostly in south). Close to 30 mm then so far.

[Summer Sun]

10.7c to the 3rd

4.3c above the 61 to 90 average
1.6c above the 81 to 10 average