November 2022 C.E.T. and EWP contests -- final month of the 2021-22 competitions

[johncam]

3 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

10.7c to the 3rd

4.3c above the 61 to 90 average
1.6c above the 81 to 10 average

Deary me , looks like another avove average month if models are correct 

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

Warmest year on record looking likely.

On 03/11/2022 at 06:35, prolongedSnowLover said:

I just hope it cools down over Europe sooner for ski resorts to open on time.

Well not looking any better on the latest 12z run…

[Roger J Smith]

12z GFS showed CET running mild to about 15th then somewhat cooler for about five days, would suggest CET near 9.0 to 9.5 by 20th. EWP rather dry in most areas, despite very high totals in north Wales and Cumbria (also parts of Ireland and western Scotland), grid average about 30 mm, running total by 20th around 60 mm. 

[Don]

5 hours ago, johncam said:

Deary me , looks like another avove average month if models are correct 

Yes, it would take a heck of a cool down later in the month to bring the CET down to average or below if current models are to be believed!  A record breaking year pretty much in the bag now!

[Summer Sun]

9.8c to the 4th

3.4c above the 61 to 90 average
0.9c above the 81 to 10 average

[Roger J Smith]

In the annual EWP contest, Freeze (115 mm) is marginally ahead of Feb1991Blizzard (87 mm). I have worked out that 97 mm is the likely scoring balance between them, so an outcome below 97 mm is likely to give Feb1991Bliz enough of a points margin to overtake Freeze. Any outcome above 97 mm will probably result in a win for Freeze in the contest. Third place PIT (70 mm), fourth place Mulzy (85 mm)  and fifth place Bobd29 (84 mm) have no mathematical chance of overtaking Feb1991Blizzard (they could overtake Freeze). 

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield at 9.1C -0.8C below average. Rainfall 4.2mm 4.8% of the monthly average.

[Summer Sun]

9.6c to the 5th

3.1c above the 61 to 90 average
0.8c above the 81 to 10 average

[richie3846]

5 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

9.6c to the 5th

3.1c above the 61 to 90 average
0.8c above the 81 to 10 average

The difference between the two average periods is huge. 1c wider than the start of October, approximately. It could just be weather patterns of course, 30 years isn't that long, but it does look like early November has warmed disproportionately (not sure about the rest of the month).

I'd hazard a guess that sea temperatures play a more important role in autumn warmth, because of lack of sun energy.

[Roger J Smith]

EWP currently around 34 mm, GFS adds only 25 mm grid average to 22nd, for a total of about 59-60 mm. 

CET looks likely to remain high all through, could reach low to mid 10s, then would likely back off after 20th to 9.5-10.0 by 22nd.

[Summer Sun]

9.4c to the 6th

3.0c above the 61 to 90 average
0.8c above the 81 to 10 average

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield at 9C -0.8C below average. Rainfall 5mm 5.7% of the monthly average.

[Roger J Smith]

The rather large difference 1961-90 to 1981-2010 obviously stems from the period 1961-80 since 1981-90 is in both periods. 

So I had a quick look and noted that 1961-62, 1964 to 1968, and also 1974 to 1976, 1980 were all quite chilly in the first ten days of November. There were a few quite mild years too, but we haven't seen very many starts to November that were fairly common back in the 60s and 70s. As the 30-year averages are not as different as these early November running means, we can assume that conditions in late November became more similar to "recent" conditions. 

[weatherforducks]

The difference of 3.0C shown to 6th November compared with the 61 to 90 average means the 61 to 90 figure used is 6.4C.  However, this is the average for November, not the average for the first 6 days of November so overstates the difference.  

[mb018538]

18 minutes ago, weatherforducks said:

The difference of 3.0C shown to 6th November compared with the 61 to 90 average means the 61 to 90 figure used is 6.4C.  However, this is the average for November, not the average for the first 6 days of November so overstates the difference.  

It's a cooling month, so the beginning part will nearly always be well above average before it evens out by the end of the month. That said - it looks way, way above average for the next week, so we're going to be halfway through November with the CET up at all time high levels. Would take blizzards and a freeze to get back down to average after that sort of start, and we all know that's probably not happening. 

[weatherforducks]

In contrast, the difference given for 81 to 10 of 0.8C to 6th November is comparing the 81 to 10 average for the first six days.  This partly explains the large disparity between this figure and the 61 to 90 difference of 3.0C.   

[Roger J Smith]

I wonder how long they have been doing that, maybe since v2.0 started? 

(went back to March and April 2022 the last CET legacy months, and they weren't doing this then, they were doing what they should now be doing, referencing a running 1961-90 mean, as one can see by following the daily reports, in those warming months, the 1961-90 normal values keep rising)

Even so, if they were doing it correctly as we do it with 1981-2010, I think the values for early Nov 1961-90 would be about what they're saying. Just a coincidence. 

Apparently then this is another consequence of changing from CET legacy to v2.0, possibly indicates they haven't updated all of their data bases from the v2.0 revisions yet. 

Edited November 8, 2022 by Roger J Smith

[Summer Sun]

9.6c to the 7th

3.2c above the 61 to 90 average
1.0c above the 81 to 10 average

[feb1991blizzard]

On 05/11/2022 at 19:02, Roger J Smith said:

In the annual EWP contest, Freeze (115 mm) is marginally ahead of Feb1991Blizzard (87 mm). I have worked out that 97 mm is the likely scoring balance between them, so an outcome below 97 mm is likely to give Feb1991Bliz enough of a points margin to overtake Freeze. Any outcome above 97 mm will probably result in a win for Freeze in the contest. Third place PIT (70 mm), fourth place Mulzy (85 mm)  and fifth place Bobd29 (84 mm) have no mathematical chance of overtaking Feb1991Blizzard (they could overtake Freeze). 

Still my earlier comments about the rest of month hold true, not buying into any settled weather that lasts beyond a few days, its just now ive underestimated the wetness, should be on around 70 or 80mm by 22nd.

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield back to 9.1C -0.6C below average. Rainfall 12.4mm 14% of the monthly average.

[Roger J Smith]

EWP now close to 50 mm, will gain a mere 20-25 mm by 24th according to GFS. Amount by then 70-75 mm. CET looks very mild for about a week, should push into the 10-11 range, then cooler (near average) for the second week of the outlook, means near 7 C for the rest of the interval would bring CET at 11 (15th) back to about 9.0 C. 

[Summer Sun]

9.9c to the 8th

3.5c above the 61 to 90 average
1.3c above the 81 to 10 average

[Don]

47 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

9.9c to the 8th

3.5c above the 61 to 90 average
1.3c above the 81 to 10 average

Wonder where the CET will be this time next week?  Around 11C probably?!  Yet another above average month of 2022 virtually in the bag now!

[reef]

19 minutes ago, Don said:

Wonder where the CET will be this time next week?  Around 11C probably?!  Yet another above average month of 2022 virtually in the bag now!

The current 9.9C is equal to the warmest (1994), so if we're well above this at the mid-month point then there's a high possibility of challenging for the warmest.

[Weather-history]

The CET trackometer for November 1938

1. 9.7
2. 9.0
3. 9.5
4. 10.4
5. 11.4
6. 11.7
7. 11.8
8. 11.8
9. 11.8
10. 11.7
11. 11.7
12. 11.9
13. 12.1
14. 12.2  
15. 12.0
16. 11.9
17. 11.8
18. 11.6
19. 11.4
20. 11.2
21. 10.8
22. 10.7
23. 10.5
24. 10.2
25. 10.0
26. 9.9
27. 9.7
28. 9.5
29. 9.5
30. 9.4

 

Edited November 9, 2022 by Weather-history