November 2022 C.E.T. and EWP contests -- final month of the 2021-22 competitions

[Don]

2 hours ago, reef said:

The current 9.9C is equal to the warmest (1994), so if we're well above this at the mid-month point then there's a high possibility of challenging for the warmest.

Which would not be good news, but we're used to that these days!

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield up to 9.4C -0.2C below average. Rainfall 17.5mm 19.8% of the monthly average.

[Roger J Smith]

At this point, the GFS looks like a 1938 (or 1978) redux, quite mild to about 18th then starting to turn a little colder towards end of the run (which is 25th today). Would say we will get to 11.0-11.5 by 18th then drop back into low 10s or high 9s by 25th. There is even a hint of the shillitocettwo storm (see their forecast post for reference) shown for 23rd. Cold to very cold by end of the run in Ukraine which may make news given the situation. Mild there now, also in Russia. 

Warmest OCT-NOV combo in v2.0 is 12.5 9.5 (11.0 avg) in 2011. We need 9.3 to beat that. Another mild combination was back in 1818, 12.0 9.5 (10.75 avg). Winter 1818-1819 was rather bland (by Dalton standards) 3.6 4.4 4.3 for the three winter months and 6.8 8.6 Mar-Apr relatively warm for those times. There were three fairly decent cold spells from mid December to early January, the lowest daily CET was -3.0 on 17 Dec 1818. No daily precip available but a rather dry Dec (and also Mar), near normal Jan-Feb. Could have been some snow with those cold spells, probably melted around 3-6 Jan. As we probably recall, winter 2014-15 a rather dry and bland affair also. Would take that Dec 1818 just to see if the cold had snow with it or not. 

[Earthshine]

November CET continues the run of obscene maximum CET anomalies this year.  The rest of this year needs to be -3.14°C below average to miss the record.  With yet more fiendishly warm temperatures into next week that required anomaly will probably creep closer to -4°C (i.e. we would need a seriously memorable December to miss the record).

[Roger J Smith]

Yes, the sum of Nov-Dec needs to be 10.6 to break 2014, so 9.0 + 1.6 or 9.5 + 1.1 or 10.0 + 0.6 for Dec. 

Will take a Dec 1981 outcome to keep 2014 on its throne. 

[Summer Sun]

10.0c to the 9th

3.6c above the 61 to 90 average
1.5c above the 81 to 10 average

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield up to 9.5C bang on average. Rainfall unchanged.

[Roger J Smith]

EWP is probably around 61 mm now, looks likely to add 35-45 mm by 26th and maps for that date suggest potential for further rain 27th-30th, so it begins to look like a Freeze win in the contest, as all that adds up to 96-106 mm plus unknown amounts. Of course it could be wrong. The CET looks like it will soar to about 11.5 by 15th then slump back to 10 eventually, some chance of it taking a run at the 9.9 (1994) record but a bit early to be too sure about that. Anything under 9 at this point would require the cooler interval becoming quite chilly and no further warming at end of month. 

[Mapantz]

I'm at 12.4°C here, even after 10 days. That's 4.1°C above the MO derived average for this area. The average temp today has been 14.3°C - crazy!

[Don]

1 hour ago, Roger J Smith said:

Anything under 9 at this point would require the cooler interval becoming quite chilly and no further warming at end of month. 

My 7.4C guess became a bust very quickly!!

[Summer Sun]

10.2c to the 10th

3.8c above the 61 to 90 average
1.7c above the 81 to 10 average

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield up to 9.7C +0.4C above average. Rainfall 17.5mm 19.8% of the monthly average.

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield up to 10.1C +0.8C above average. Rainfall Unchanged

[Summer Sun]

10.6c to the 11th

4.2c above the 61 to 90 average
2.2c above the 81 to 10 average

[Roger J Smith]

Records fell on the 11th, a new daily mean (14.3) replaces 13.8 in v2.0 from 2015; max of 15.9 replaced 15.5 from 1938; min of 12.7 tied 2015. This brings the number of high daily mean (v2.0) records to 9.5 for the year; it would be 9.0 in legacy because the tie achieved on 28 Oct was not a tie with the legacy value (1888). Only a small number of years have more records in either list. By breaking a 2015 record, 2022 moves ahead of 2015 in v2.0 records set. Still behind 2011 (11.0) and 1947 (10.5). 1976 lost some ground from legacy to v2.0, was at 9.5 in legacy where it was ahead of 2015, 2011 and 1947 (each at 9.0). 2022 would be tied with 1947 and 2011 in CET legacy and now ahead of 2015 having broken one of its 9 records. 

Edited November 12, 2022 by Roger J Smith

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield up to 10.2C +1.1C above normal. Rainfall unchanged.

Should be a slow decline from here to the end of next week. Today looks to be foggy and if it doesn't clear could be a drop for today as well.

[Summer Sun]

10.7c to the 12th

4.3c above the 61 to 90 average
2.3c above the 81 to 10 average

[Methuselah]

2 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

10.7c to the 12th

4.3c above the 61 to 90 average
2.3c above the 81 to 10 average

I think November must be one of our months that has warmed the most... Back in the 1960s, it used to snow in November!

[Nick L]

28 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

I think November must be one of our months that has warmed the most... Back in the 1960s, it used to snow in November!

Purely anecdotal but it does feel as though Autumn in general has warmed up more than any other season. September is an extension of summer and then it's only a very gradual cool down into an Autumnal feeling December.

[Methuselah]

1 minute ago, Nick L said:

Purely anecdotal but it does feel as though Autumn in general has warmed up more than any other season. September is an extension of summer and then it's only a very gradual cool down into an Autumnal feeling December.

And, to be even more anecdotal, where have all those September & October frosts got to?

[Scorcher]

2 hours ago, Nick L said:

Purely anecdotal but it does feel as though Autumn in general has warmed up more than any other season. September is an extension of summer and then it's only a very gradual cool down into an Autumnal feeling December.

Air frosts before mid November are pretty rare across much of the country. They've become very unusual indeed in October here. To me it feels like all the seasons have warmed up. Most of the remarkably warm months in the last 20 years or so seem to have been in autumn and spring.

[Roger J Smith]

EWP update, after a few relatively dry days stalled at 58 mm, but GFS now wetter in outlook period and by 29th the maps show a grid average of 70 mm more, for 128 mm. 

CET outlook, seems likely to edge up further then start falling, rather slowly at first, then more steadily. Could be near 9 C or even into the 8s by end of month. 

[Shillitocettwo]

    Yes in my experience Autumn does seem to have warmed more than any other season, I remember when you would get well below zero nights and frost in November, now the entire season seems barely capable of scraping a light ground frost together,and that's in the Midlands bang in the middle of the CET area! 

    On the other hand the one month that seems to have failed to notice Global Warming is June..... I'm sure I did a plot of June CETs since the Maunder Minimum days and incredibly the trend line was negative!

[Roger J Smith]

1822-51 was the warmest 30-year interval for June in the old CET, we were approaching it (14.72 I think it was) when the v2.0 thing happened and I haven't gone into my files to see if 1822-51 is still ahead of 1993-2022 or not. It was going to get passed in the legacy version. But still, no other month has a peak 30-year average further back than about 1971-2000. 

[Summer Sun]

10.8c to the 13th

4.4c above the 61 to 90 average
2.5c above the 81 to 10 average