November 2022 C.E.T. and EWP contests -- final month of the 2021-22 competitions

[SLEETY]

January and February must have considerably warmed from the long-term average since the late 80s.

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield at 10.2C +1.2C above normal. Rainfall 17.6mm 19.9% of the monthly average

[Roger J Smith]

After we were alerted to the fact that the 1961-90 CET comparisons were to end of month (but 1981-2010 on our reports are related to running means), I calculated these running means for the 1961-90 CET values (v2.0) just for reference ... 

15th __ 7.4

20th __ 7.0

25th __ 6.8

30th __ 6.4 (this is the value all days are being compared with in the CET tables and our daily reports)

 

[Weather-history]

On 13/11/2022 at 14:39, Ed Stone said:

And, to be even more anecdotal, where have all those September & October frosts got to?

Had an air frost here on the 17th September, 2 months after it got to 39.1°C

[Weather-history]

On 13/11/2022 at 14:36, Nick L said:

Purely anecdotal but it does feel as though Autumn in general has warmed up more than any other season. September is an extension of summer and then it's only a very gradual cool down into an Autumnal feeling December.

It feels to me that October has warmed up more than any month and this process seems to have started earlier than with the other months.

There have been only 7 sub 10°C Octobers since and including 1983. 

There were only 7  10°C> from 1862-1900 inclusive

[North-Easterly Blast]

1 hour ago, Weather-history said:

It feels to me that October has warmed up more than any month and this process seems to have started earlier than with the other months.

There have been only 7 sub 10°C Octobers since and including 1983. 

There were only 7  10°C> from 1862-1900 inclusive

I think that the warming trend in the October CET became evident from the 1960s onwards, and CET records show evidence that there was a warming trend in the November CET from the 1930s onwards.

One remarkable statistic is that the month from mid October to mid November this year was the warmest since daily CET records began in 1772.  Although we do not have daily records prior to 1772, this year has very likely seen the warmest mid-October to mid-November period since the CET record began in 1659.  I calculate that mid-October to mid-November this year has a CET of 12.2.  So although it is not a record warm CET for a calendar month, it has still been a record warm month spanning a mid-month to mid-month period, nevertheless.

Edited November 15, 2022 by North-Easterly Blast

[Scorcher]

1 hour ago, Weather-history said:

Had an air frost here on the 17th September, 2 months after it got to 39.1°C

Surprising you had one that early. I think Rostherne got close in September but remained above freezing. I imagine the Chat Moss area must be one of the coldest areas in the NW at night though.

[saintkip]

On 12/11/2022 at 12:05, The PIT said:

Sunny Sheffield up to 10.1C +0.8C above average. Rainfall Unchanged

Why is your Sheffield average so much higher than the CET zone  average? Surely Sheffield should be lower?

[Summer Sun]

10.8c to the 14th

4.4c above the 61 to 90 average
2.6c above the 81 to 10 average

[The PIT]

8 hours ago, saintkip said:

Why is your Sheffield average so much higher than the CET zone  average? Surely Sheffield should be lower?

It's not it's lower

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield down to 10.1C +1.2C above normal.  Rainfall 18.3mm  20.7% of the monthly average.

[Roger J Smith]

In before SB asks about warm first halves of November; this is the current list with 2022 estimate based on known max and min today. (holding at 10.8) ... now confirmed, and as this is the v2.0 age and temperatures are final when posted, this list will not otherwise need adjusting at end of month (probably) ... rank at end of month includes some years that had no daily data (1743 6th, 1730 7th, 1729 t25th, 1722, 1731,1741 t34th), and ranks colder than t42nd (7.7) are not shown. The warmest end of November CET that was not supported by an entry in this list was 1913 (8.4, t18) which was at 8.2 C on 15th. 

 

Rank ___ Year ___ CET 1-15 ____ CET 1-30 (rank one decimal)

_ 01 ____ 1938 ___ 12.0 ______ 9.4 (t4)

_ 02 ____ 2015 ___ 11.4 ______ 9.4 (t4)

_ 03 ____ 2022 ___ 10.8 ______ ?? ?? 

_ 04 ____ 2011 ___ 10.5 ______ 9.5 (t2)

_t05 ____ 1818 ___ 10.4 ______ 9.5 (t2)

_t05 ____ 1994 ___ 10.4 ______ 9.9 (1)

_ 07 ____ 1978 ___ 10.3 ______ 8.3 (t20)

_t08 ____ 1817 ___ 10.0 ______ 9.1 (8)

_t08 ____ 1899 ___ 10.0 ______ 8.5 (t13)

_t10 ____ 1852 ____ 9.9 ______ 7.9 (t31)

_t10 ____ 2005 ____ 9.9 ______ 6.0

_t10 ____ 2018 ____ 9.9 ______ 8.3 (t20)

_t13 ____ 1881 ____ 9.7 ______ 8.9 (9)

_t13 ____ 2002 ____ 9.7 ______ 8.5 (t18)

_t15 ____ 1847 ____ 9.6 ______ 7.9 (t31)

_t15 ____ 1939 ____ 9.6 ______ 8.7 (10)

_t15 ____ 1982 ____ 9.6 ______ 7.7 (t42)

_t15 ____ 2020 ____ 9.6 ______ 8.5 (t13)

_ 19 ____ 1894 ____ 9.5 ______ 7.9 (t31)

_t20 ____ 1811 ____ 9.3 ______ 7.7 (t42)

_t20 ____ 1947 ____ 9.3 ______ 7.2

_t20 ____ 1955 ____ 9.3 ______ 7.0

_t20 ____ 1963 ____ 9.3 ______ 8.2 (t22)

_t20 ____ 1977 ____ 9.3 ______ 6.4

_t20 ____ 1983 ____ 9.3 ______ 7.4

_t26 ____ 2003 ____ 9.2 ______ 8.0 (t27)

_t26 ____ 2014 ____ 9.2 ______ 8.5 (t13)

_t28 ____ 1931 ____ 9.1 ______ 7.8 (t34)

_t28 ____ 1951 ____ 9.1 ______ 8.5 (t13)

_t30 ____ 1866 ____ 9.0 ______ 6.9

_t30 ____ 1898 ____ 9.0 ______ 7.2

_ 32 ____ 1914 ____ 8.9 ______ 6.8

_t33 ____ 1822 ____ 8.8 ______ 8.2 (t22)

_t33 ____ 1830 ____ 8.8 ______ 6.9

_t33 ____ 1849 ____ 8.8 ______ 6.6

_t33 ____ 1900 ____ 8.8 ______ 7.3

_t33 ____ 1973 ____ 8.8 ______ 6.0

_t33 ____ 2021 ____ 8.8 ______ 7.2

_t39 ____ 1779 ____ 8.7 ______ 5.7

_t39 ____ 1792 ____ 8.7 ______ 7.1

_t39 ____ 1821 ____ 8.7 ______ 8.6 (t11)

_t39 ____ 1827 ____ 8.7 ______ 6.9

_t39 ____ 1834 ____ 8.7 ______ 6.7

_t39 ____ 1877 ____ 8.7 ______ 7.1

_t39 ____ 1902 ____ 8.7 ______ 6.8

_t39 ____ 1916 ____ 8.7 ______ 6.8

_t39 ____ 1999 ____ 8.7 ______ 7.7 (t42)

_t48 ____ 1772 ____ 8.6 ______ 7.2

_t48 ____ 1897 ____ 8.6 ______ 7.6

_t48 ____ 1953 ____ 8.6 ______ 8.5 (t13)

_t51 ____ 1850 ____ 8.5 ______ 7.4

_t51 ____ 1895 ____ 8.5 ______ 7.5

_t51 ____ 1948 ____ 8.5 ______ 6.3

_t51 ____ 1984 ____ 8.5 ______ 7.8 (t34)

_t51 ____ 2007 ____ 8.5 ______ 7.2

_t51 ____ 2009 ____ 8.5 ______ 8.6 (t11)

I have included a good sample of earlier years by setting a low bar of 8.5 at mid-month. That is barely above average now. Nov 2010 was 8.1 ending up 5.1. 

(coldest 1919 ____ 2.3 ______ 3.3) 

At least a few of these mild Novembers were followed by cold winters or cold intervals in more average winters. 

Edited November 16, 2022 by Roger J Smith

[Relativistic]

Christ, 1938 was a freak show.

[Summer Sun]

10.8c to the 15th

4.3c above the 61 to 90 average
2.7c above the 81 to 10 average

[The PIT]

Stubbornly refusing to drop in Sunny Sheffield. Still at 10.1C +1.3C above average. Rainfall now at 36.6mm 41.4% of the monthly average. 

Today was a rather cold day so finally should be a drop tomorrow.  Rainfall on the radar doesn't look to bad so not expecting a huge amount probably enough to put us back on average rainfall. Hopefully wrong as we need the rain.

[Roger J Smith]

EWP estimate (should have stayed with my original guess) now looking very high, 150-160 mm (currently around 80 mm). 

CET lots of cooler days ahead, a few milder again briefly around 25th, current estimate of finish 8.5 to 9.0 C. 

Only one contest guess above the likely EWP finish, can probably post a fairly accurate estimate of scoring soon.

Top 25 November EWP values for comparison are:

 1 _ 1852 _ 202.5

 2 _ 1770 _ 200.8

 3 _ 1940 _ 196.5

 4 _ 1929 _ 195.9

 5 _ 2009 _ 192.1

 6 _ 2000 _ 182.1

 7 _ 1951 _ 180.4

 8 _ 1970 _ 178.6

 9 _ 2002 _ 176.2

10 _1810 _ 174.4

11 _1963 _ 165.9

12 _1954 _ 163.9

13 _1939 _ 162.1

14 _1842 _ 160.9

15 _1946 _ 158.0

16 _1926 _ 157.9

17 _1772 _ 157.3

18 _1944 _ 155.2

19 _1836 _ 154.0

20 _1950 _ 152.3

t21_1935 _ 151.6

t21_1984 _ 151.6

23 _1888 _ 150.1

24 _1791 _ 150.0

25 _1960 _ 149.8

[Summer Sun]

10.6c to the 16th

4.2c above the 61 to 90 average
2.6c above the 81 to 10 average

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield at 9.9C +1.2C above normal. Rainfall 49.7mm 56.3% of the monthly average. Today's rain will bring up above average for the number of days in the month.

[damianslaw]

On 15/11/2022 at 08:09, North-Easterly Blast said:

I think that the warming trend in the October CET became evident from the 1960s onwards, and CET records show evidence that there was a warming trend in the November CET from the 1930s onwards.

One remarkable statistic is that the month from mid October to mid November this year was the warmest since daily CET records began in 1772.  Although we do not have daily records prior to 1772, this year has very likely seen the warmest mid-October to mid-November period since the CET record began in 1659.  I calculate that mid-October to mid-November this year has a CET of 12.2.  So although it is not a record warm CET for a calendar month, it has still been a record warm month spanning a mid-month to mid-month period, nevertheless.

I suspected the case. Similiar to record warmth mid Nov to mid Dec 15.

6 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

10.6c to the 16th

4.2c above the 61 to 90 average
2.6c above the 81 to 10 average

Quite remarkable but not surprised. Should see quite a drop in coming days but likely finish at least 2 degrees above the mean 61 to 90 average continuing the warmth of 2022, when will it ever end?

[North-Easterly Blast]

9 hours ago, damianslaw said:

I suspected the case. Similiar to record warmth mid Nov to mid Dec 15.

Quite remarkable but not surprised. Should see quite a drop in coming days but likely finish at least 2 degrees above the mean 61 to 90 average continuing the warmth of 2022, when will it ever end?

The persistent warmth of 2022 really began in September 2021, which was a very warm month with a notable late heatwave in the first half, and we have not had a below average month since May 2021, and we have in fact not even had a month that was even below the most recent averages but not the older averages, since August 2021.  Although to be more precise, November 2021 at 7.3 CET was fractionally below the most recent 1991-2020 average of 7.4, but still above all the older averages.  

[Frigid]

1 hour ago, North-Easterly Blast said:

The persistent warmth of 2022 really began in September 2021, which was a very warm month with a notable late heatwave in the first half, and we have not had a below average month since May 2021, and we have in fact not even had a month that was even below the most recent averages but not the older averages, since August 2021.  Although to be more precise, November 2021 at 7.3 CET was fractionally below the most recent 1991-2020 average of 7.4, but still above all the older averages.  

I don't remember Nov 2021 feeling anywhere near average, feel like the CET doesn't quite reflect the entire month. Was very mild up to the last week where we got frosts and a good snowfall - Winter 2021/22 had zilch

[Summer Sun]

10.5c to the 17th

4.1c above the 61 to 90 average
2.6c above the 81 to 10 average

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield down to 9.7C +1.0C above normal. Rainfall 76.8mm 87% of the monthly average.

Today was back to average so no drop for tomorrow.

[kold weather]

Well anything below 8c for November is now pretty much out of the question. The next few days do look a little cooler however there is pretty good agreement now on a milder spell developing for at least a few days around the 24-25th.

 

[Summer Sun]

10.4c to the 18th

4.0c above the 61 to 90 average
2.6c above the 81 to 10 average