Model Output Discussion - Deeper into Autumn

[BlueHedgehog074]

Howdy

Please continue your discussions of the models in here. Felt a bit of a fresh start was needed. Previous thread was also getting very very long.

We kindly ask you to please keep things friendly in here. Posts that are: rude, harassing other members, full of colourful language or are overall unsuitable for this thread are considered unacceptable. And repeated offences of this may find you banned or suspended from this thread (and a lovely long stay in our Netweather Jail ) 

Of course, though, we would hate to do that and trust everyone to keep this place welcoming. A place that we would want to visit and be part of. 

We do advise you double-check the contents of your post before hitting submit to make sure it is model related. For general discussion about the weather this season, the Autumn 2022 - Moans, Ramps and Chat is already very active, so please head over there: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/97423-autumn-2022-moans-ramps-chat/#comments

Although we’re getting quite deep into Autumn now, it looks like the weather will continue to be mild to warm this week as the models unleash further South-Westerly to Southerly winds over the UK (perhaps more Westerly tomorrow):

With Low Pressure close by to the West of the UK in the Atlantic, this will bring further spells of rain and showers to places - some showers of which will likely to continue being thundery. Eastern and South-Eastern areas seeing the best of the brighter spells between the wet weather at times. Some windy periods too, especially towards Western and North-Western areas. For the time of year, there is some (very) impressive warmth from this setup.

Also, for a bit of fun (something that I think was covered in the previous thread), is that this mornings 00Z ECMWF run at 234 hours has the 850 hPa temperatures getting this warm over South-Western UK:

 

16*C 850 hPa temperatures! Even for Summer that is something! (tho not exceptional).

Plus this very recent post additionally from Scorcher in the previous thread covering something similar: 

https://community.netweather.tv/topic/97297-model-output-discussion-autumn-arrives/?do=findComment&comment=4729472

Some of you I’m sure will be looking for colder weather at some point. Frost, snow, freezing fog, etc. Will November bring a change to the weather pattern? Can it bring a setup favourable for many of the cold weather enthusiasts seeing the strong heights to the East of the UK over mainland Europe give up the ghost? Time will tell.

Previous thread: 

 

Edited October 23, 2022 by DiagonalRedLine
Corrections and tweaks

[Scorcher]

Just to continue the discussion from the old thread about next weekend. The 850hPa temps shown by the GFS for next Sunday are considerably higher than what we saw in late October 2014.

In fact Thursday looks very similar indeed to Halloween 2014, yet it's put in the shade by what is being shown for the weekend.

Currently most sites are predicting around 20C at best for Thursday- I imagine 22C would be likely and possibly higher in such a setup.

Edited October 23, 2022 by Scorcher

[Don]

1 minute ago, Scorcher said:

Just to continue the discussion from the old thread about next weekend. The 850hPa temps shown by the GFS for next Sunday are considerably higher than what we saw in late October 2014.

In fact Thursday looks very similar indeed to Halloween 2014, yet it's put in the shade by what is being shown for the weekend.

Could somewhere record 25C if the conditions are right next weekend?!  Would be absolutely exceptional, albeit not entirely surprising given this year so far!!

[Scorcher]

2 minutes ago, Don said:

Could somewhere record 25C if the conditions are right next weekend?!  Would be absolutely exceptional, albeit not entirely surprising given this year so far!!

I'm not sure Don- we haven't really seen such a warm airmass before so late in the year so it's difficult to say. You'd have to say it isn't impossible given it's a warmer setup than Halloween 2014.

[Don]

20 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

I'm not sure Don- we haven't really seen such a warm airmass before so late in the year so it's difficult to say. You'd have to say it isn't impossible given it's a warmer setup than Halloween 2014.

Yes, that must be a record breaking warm airmass being shown for this time of year?  I think 25C could well be achieved if it's sunny, just going by what happened in 2014.

[Frosty.]

Perhaps November will be different!….well at least it won’t be October! 

But seriously, the GEFS 12z mean, longer term hints something cooler once the trough pulls away to the north east with a hint of mid Atlantic ridging to follow?… ..now I’m really entering the realms of fantasy!..to insinuate we might see a cooler NW’ly flow in early November…that’s desperate!  

 

[Weather-history]

54 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

Just to continue the discussion from the old thread about next weekend. The 850hPa temps shown by the GFS for next Sunday are considerably higher than what we saw in late October 2014.

In fact Thursday looks very similar indeed to Halloween 2014, yet it's put in the shade by what is being shown for the weekend.

Currently most sites are predicting around 20C at best for Thursday- I imagine 22C would be likely and possibly higher in such a setup.

Foehn effect could come into play. North coast of Wales such as Llandundno to Aber Falls could be really warm

[carinthian]

Wow that is some block. Not sure I have seen charts like this before. Almost seems supernatural,manufacturing above the forces of nature, outside the ordinary of operations of cause and effect. Everthing the Atlantic offers just buckles around the sun shade that is the British Isles. No sign of a early start to my ski season based on that chart.

c

[Methuselah]

1 hour ago, Scorcher said:

I'm not sure Don- we haven't really seen such a warm airmass before so late in the year so it's difficult to say. You'd have to say it isn't impossible given it's a warmer setup than Halloween 2014.

And lest we forget July's max of 40.3C?

[Downburst]

Amazing, low temperatures of 14 at night, balmy 17 to 20 during the day, typical start to November - ahem.

. 

[Frosty.]

Speaking of desperate, coldies may need Dan’s help if any of these GEFS 12z perturbations in early November stand a cat in hells chance!  

Edited October 23, 2022 by jon snow

[Mike Poole]

Interesting end of October seems to be firming up on the models, first GFS T174:

+16C isotherm well into the UK.  Others have drawn the comparison with 2014, the high to the east looks quite similar, the low to the west pulling up the warm air rather different though, result a more direct southerly draw on GFS than 2014, and warmer uppers.

ECM has the whole thing a day later, T192:

Could be some records going, so one to watch!

Edited October 23, 2022 by Mike Poole

[Man With Beard]

Evening all, apologies for not posting recently, starting a self-employed business has really sucked up all my time! 

Still checking the weather charts, and thought I must comment on ECM today as I love a record, and we maybe just maybe could have a shot at the November record only a few years after it got broken quite drastically! 

ECM does like a bit of over-amplification D7 and beyond so won't get carried away, but on temp possibilities, my ballpark once we get to November in dry/mild set-ups is 850hpa + 7 to get the centigrade, so 16C 850s perhaps leading to something like 23C, somewhere like Rhyl could be in with a shout. 

All academic at the moment though, will the pattern hold? The other thing is the need to avoid completely calm conditions, as too calm and the clear blue skies could fill with fog and murk - such a difference between mid-October and early-November in what a big Euro high can do!

[Scorcher]

2 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

All academic at the moment though, will the pattern hold? The other thing is the need to avoid completely calm conditions, as too calm and the clear blue skies could fill with fog and murk - such a difference between mid-October and early-November in what a big Euro high can do!

This is a really important point- was thinking this myself before.

1st November 2015 was a pretty still day and as a result it was very hit and miss whether you got warm sunshine or dense fog.

That day I recall Manchester city centre (and areas to the east of the city) being sunny and warm, while the airport just to the south was in fog pretty much the whole day and temperatures were suppressed as a result.

More of a breeze would prevent that from happening.

[carinthian]

10 hours ago, carinthian said:

Wow that is some block. Not sure I have seen charts like this before. Almost seems supernatural,manufacturing above the forces of nature, outside the ordinary of operations of cause and effect. Everthing the Atlantic offers just buckles around the sun shade that is the British Isles. No sign of a early start to my ski season based on that chart.

c

Morning all, the chart below from GFS continues the theme  for the next 7 days. Warm Air Advection into Euroland maintaining the warm high block ( reached  21c again in many parts yesterday ) Any Atlantic troughs continue to show little advance eastwards and buffers in the vicinity of the British Isles. How long can this holding pattern continue ?  Looking at the models, for eternal life, so it seems ! Personally, I like warm sunny Octobers but when November comes, I start to get anguished by lack of snow prospects. I will give it another couple of weeks !

C

[northwestsnow]

For someone like myself who enjoys seasonal weather these kind of charts are nothing short of awful.

[BlueHedgehog074]

21 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

For someone like myself who enjoys seasonal weather these kind of charts are nothing short of awful.

Weather seems confused about what season it is Summer wants to keep on fighting back. While it’ll probably change, at least I suppose it would be mainly dry and great walking weather (which admittedly wouldn’t mind). 

I understand for a number of people, it would be nice to see something chillier, or just more seasonal really. 

[Craigers]

Those lows seem to be getting confused and complicated over the Atlantic. I'm off to Morocco this Saturday for a week's surf trip. Is the models under doing the low pressures? There were some big ones predicted from this Sunday  

[sundog]

1 hour ago, northwestsnow said:

For someone like myself who enjoys seasonal weather these kind of charts are nothing short of awful.

Pretty depressing.  Love seasonal weather myself  Is that hp basically a Bartlett? Or very similar. Only good thing ,good for the heating bills.

[Scorcher]

2 hours ago, northwestsnow said:

For someone like myself who enjoys seasonal weather these kind of charts are nothing short of awful.

It's not winter though is it. We're in a transitional season. Very similar to cold clinging on in April.

[NewEra21]

The only positive from a coldies perspective is at least we're seeing this pattern now and it's still well over a month until the start of winter as of yet.

I'd definitely love a seasonal bonfire night etc, but I'd take a mild start to November if it means we can finally see this pattern shift to something more seasonal/colder as we head through November.

If not, well it's just going to be very depressing

[carinthian]

21 minutes ago, NewEra21 said:

The only positive from a coldies perspective is at least we're seeing this pattern now and it's still well over a month until the start of winter as of yet.

I'd definitely love a seasonal bonfire night etc, but I'd take a mild start to November if it means we can finally see this pattern shift to something more seasonal/colder as we head through November.

If not, well it's just going to be very depressing

Yes, I tend to agree there. I do remember a few cold Novembers were generally followed by a mild winter in the UK.  However, I do have dreaded memories back in the early 70s when mild locked in from November and lasted throughout the whole winter season. Now that is a depressing thought for you guys!  If a Barlett set up gets rooted, forever mild in Southern Britain but strange as it seems it will be good for snowfall coming around its Eastern flank into the Eastern Alps.

C

[Rain All Night]

For anyone else wondering what a Bartlett is... 

Not clear who gave it the name Bartlett though, the only references to it seem to be on weather discussion boards.

[Don]

4 hours ago, northwestsnow said:

For someone like myself who enjoys seasonal weather these kind of charts are nothing short of awful.

Coldies might get rewarded in a month's time and these charts will then be forgiven! 

[Alexis]

1 hour ago, carinthian said:

Yes, I tend to agree there. I do remember a few cold Novembers were generally followed by a mild winter in the UK.  However, I do have dreaded memories back in the early 70s when mild locked in from November and lasted throughout the whole winter season. Now that is a depressing thought for you guys!  If a Barlett set up gets rooted, forever mild in Southern Britain but strange as it seems it will be good for snowfall coming around its Eastern flank into the Eastern Alps.

C

The seventies? We've had that for about the last 10 years!