Model Output Discussion - Deeper into Autumn

[northwestsnow]

3 hours ago, Scorcher said:

It's not winter though is it. We're in a transitional season. Very similar to cold clinging on in April.

I never said it was winter ?

[Don]

7 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

I never said it was winter ?

Just as well really, can you imagine what we would be like with the current weather and temperatures in the high teens, threatening low twenties on the 24th December?!  However, one day that could become a realistic prospect!!

[KTtom]

1 hour ago, northwestsnow said:

I never said it was winter ?

I think 99% of forum users understand what you were getting at. On a personal note, I'm happy for these charts to last into November, then we can have a switch once I've saved enough oil

[Downburst]

well to break the boredom for those that want so called seasonal weather, even though it's still middle of autumn and it's what we are getting, although on the milder than normal side. The last ECMWF 46 day is holding out for higher-than-normal pressure to the north as November progresses. Will be important to see the update later today to see what this looks like in the latest, although it also showed no cold really, but look forward to see if we can get some drier and even frostier weather

 

[Cambrian]

A spookily  mild end to the month cemented in to the models, even clearly shown in the ensemble means and anomalies, here the 12z GEFS mean at day 7, a southwesterly flow around the low still centred a long way west between Greenland and Iceland. T850s between 3 and 8 degrees or so. 

   

Some renewed signs that the trough will gradually inch eastward by day 12 to be more directly to our north, with more of a westerly or northwesterly influence overall - so still changeable, but not that mild for that long - indeed a fire  might be needed by then - with T850s between 0 and 3 degrees, the anomaly chart suggesting back to at, or slightly below, the seasonal norm.

   

[Tim Bland]

PV struggling to get organised. Fast forward from this and it could get interesting… 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

The patterns have been repeating recently still pretty similar to the charts in a previous post I done about the MJO phases 4 & 5, we've not seen the phase 6 patterns come to the surface thus far but I believe there are a number of reasons contributing to that. Recently there was a +EAMT event associated with a Rossby Wave Packet, excellent summary in this twitter thread 

Also the GWO and AAM/GLAAM are in the higher amplitude phases, I'm looking to learn more about those and could be wrong but I'd assume that the higher amplitude phases would be associated with blocking Highs which fits in nicely with this 

I'm intrigued to see how the models factor all those events in and wonder if there could be some interesting model outputs in the upcoming period between Halloween and November 5th maybe the GFS beginning to go there with the end of today's 12z 

[feb1991blizzard]

8 minutes ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

d between Halloween and November 5th maybe the GFS beginning to go there with the end of today's 12z 

 

13 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

PV struggling to get organised. Fast forward from this and it could get interesting… 

well i certainly cant think a cross polar flow (or near one) would be a bad thing to start the new season off with (stratospherically or more near term chances).

[bluearmy]

The back end of the 12z gfs run is notable both trop and strat 

just a shame it the back end of a gfs run ….

[ANYWEATHER]

The so called warm spell has been wiped away from the Ecm, Gfs sniffed it and ditched it, the turnaround from the Synoptics is around the corner. Enjoy the mild, by the time we reach mid November it's cold ,cold cold...

[Methuselah]

3 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:

The so called warm spell has been wiped away from the Ecm, Gfs sniffed it and ditched it, the turnaround from the Synoptics is around the corner. Enjoy the mild, by the time we reach mid November it's cold ,cold cold...

Will the cold be as record-breaking as what you were predicting in April 2020, do you think?

[ANYWEATHER]

28 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Will the cold be as record-breaking as what you were predicting in April 2020, do you think?

Sit back and Relax Ed, Don't Worry ,Ed it will come!

[Allseasons-Si]

I will have some of what p27 is on...

oh,...and p18.

not out of the rules of possibilities

Edited October 25, 2022 by Allseasons-si

[bluearmy]

10 hours ago, bluearmy said:

The back end of the 12z gfs run is notable both trop and strat 

just a shame it the back end of a gfs run ….

The 00z repeats 

split pv courtesy of a n pacific ridge pumped into the Far East of Siberia (east of kamkatchka and west of the Andreans), aided by an ex typhoon 

the end of this run also introduces an ex hurricane into the Altantic sector which would deliver a further blow to an quick reformation of the tpv over the pole.
 

The wave from the tpv split heads into the strat which also stretches and splits 

this would be a reasonably significant event in early November 

the ridge is in the 8/12 day period so should begin to firm up on the ens if it’s going to happen 

Thursday ec46 one to watch on this if we’re still on the same page by then 

 

 

[Liam Burge]

The *very* end of the GFS run is not something to scoff at if you're a cold lover! Admittedly, it's a few weeks out however it starts to show heights building towards Greenland! If this run continued for a few more frames I'm sure we'd see something special.

[Methuselah]

35 minutes ago, Liam Burge said:

The *very* end of the GFS run is not something to scoff at if you're a cold lover! Admittedly, it's a few weeks out however it starts to show heights building towards Greenland! If this run continued for a few more frames I'm sure we'd see something special.

Defo one for lovers of cold, wet & miserable weather everywhere, is that one, Liam!

[Mike Poole]

1 hour ago, bluearmy said:

The 00z repeats 

split pv courtesy of a n pacific ridge pumped into the Far East of Siberia (east of kamkatchka and west of the Andreans), aided by an ex typhoon 

the end of this run also introduces an ex hurricane into the Altantic sector which would deliver a further blow to an quick reformation of the tpv over the pole.
 

The wave from the tpv split heads into the strat which also stretches and splits 

this would be a reasonably significant event in early November 

the ridge is in the 8/12 day period so should begin to firm up on the ens if it’s going to happen 

Thursday ec46 one to watch on this if we’re still on the same page by then 

 

 

Yes, interesting signal - quite a disturbance in the strat vortex! T192-T384

This was also there on yesterday’s 12z but on all runs prior to that, it was just a fairly ordinary early season vortex.  

All adds fuel to the idea of a major pattern change in mid to late November.

[SLEETY]

Signs of changes at last in the output.

Going to be a shock to the system when temps start falling towards  near normal. 

Maybe even dramatic changes as we head into mid-Nov

[Scorcher]

19 hours ago, northwestsnow said:

I never said it was winter ?

Never said you did. What I meant was there's no point getting frustrated over 'unseasonal' conditions in October. I feel like many people on these forums expect too much too soon in terms of cold weather.

I always feel the odds favour mild over cold right up to the end of October due to the relatively warm Atlantic. This is especially the case this year as SSTs have been exceptionally warm in the North Atlantic.

[Sky Full]

I don’t know about the possible autumn ‘heatwave’ but this little GFS 0z progression for the week beginning 2nd November looks unsettled, wet, windy and even cold at times, to me…

 

Might be a prelude to something a little less Summery, perhaps?

[tight isobar]

We got “rattling “ into the layers- things are likely to change in dramatic alleys!. Strat/trop- disturbance is setting in.. the USA will as (ever) see the dripping , @ vortex finding. But disconnect of format puts a probable carve into the polar vortex as a whole @ mid November!! Then things change rapidly... And the notability sways to the euro side... the angular momentum- And warm pocket advection STRENGTH into the arctic is striking heading into early early winter!.. we’ll keep a steady hand 🖐 and watch to see if the beef dripping of layers.. fall on our bread ?!

Edited October 25, 2022 by tight isobar

[PiscesStar]

2 hours ago, tight isobar said:

We got “rattling “ into the layers- things are likely to change in dramatic alleys!. Strat/trop- disturbance is setting in.. the USA will as (ever) see the dripping , @ vortex finding. But disconnect of format puts a probable carve into the polar vortex as a whole @ mid November!! Then things change rapidly... And the notability sways to the euro side... the angular momentum- And warm pocket advection STRENGTH into the arctic is striking heading into early early winter!.. we’ll keep a steady hand 🖐 and watch to see if the beef dripping of layers.. fall on our bread ?!

What does that mean in layman's terms 

[MAF]

38 minutes ago, PiscesStar said:

What does that mean in layman's terms 

agree with you there, it just read like a load of gobbledygook to me

[Methuselah]

Aha, there are some signs of a cooldown, according to the Met Office's latest Ten-Day Trend, but (Praise Be to the Great One!) nothing too cold:

 

Edited October 25, 2022 by Ed Stone
Hic!

[Rain All Night]

15 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Aha, there are some signs of a cooldown, but (Praise Be to the Great One!) nothing too cold:

 

It has been interesting to watch the wording evolve on their signal for a change to a cooler settled pattern, the main edits having been to the timing, which has been pushed back a few times from 'into November' to 'second week of November' to 'mid-November'. I would love to know how they originally picked up on this signal which has been in their day 16-30 forecast for three weeks now, and whether it ties in to anything that knowledgeable members have been posting here.

Edited October 25, 2022 by RainAllNight