Model Output Discussion - Deeper into Autumn

[Methuselah]

3 minutes ago, RainAllNight said:

It has been interesting to watch the wording evolve on their signal for a change to a cooler settled pattern, the main edits having been to the timing, which has been pushed back a few times from 'into November' to 'second week of November' to 'mid-November'. I would love to know how they originally picked up on this signal which has been in their day 16-30 forecast for three weeks now, and whether it ties in to anything that knowledgeable members have been posting here.

Me too! But, sometimes, I just bow to the Met Office's knowledge and experience.

[Relativistic]

15 hours ago, Allseasons-si said:

I will have some of what p27 is on...

oh,...and p18.

not out of the rules of possibilities

Perhaps I'll be proven wrong, but I can't help but feel that at some point, perhaps in the next decade, we will see a brutal shot of November cold.. PV formation heading into late Autumn seems to be more and more perturbed as the years go on due to ever-increasing excess heat post-Summer*, whilst cold can still build further north as the polar night falls. Our default position in these setups is undoubtedly in mild sectors, but at some point one of these crazy perturbations has to become reality? Thoughts?

*Please let me know if this is a recency bias!

Edited October 25, 2022 by Relativistic

[damianslaw]

17 minutes ago, Relativistic said:

Perhaps I'll be proven wrong, but I can't help but feel that at some point, perhaps in the next decade, we will see a brutal shot of November cold.. PV formation heading into late Autumn seems to be more and more perturbed as the years go on due to ever-increasing excess heat post-Summer*, whilst cold can still build further north as the polar night falls. Our default position in these setups is undoubtedly in mild sectors, but at some point one of these crazy perturbations has to become reality? Thoughts?

*Please let me know if this is a recency bias!

It happened in Nov 2010!

[Eagle Eye]

Just to let you all know that the ECM seems to be going wild in its latest run.

In all seriousness,Autumn is a very nothing but everything goes on month, you'll see crazy runs like this but they rarely come to reality even just a week away, it's possible but we've seen this multiple times before especially on the ECM, after a good summer the ECM has found it difficult recently.

[Sceptical]

Snow in November up these parts is now rare, but it can still happen.

Taken after Storm Arwen, 27th November 2021.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Very encouraging GFS at D8 for the longer term.

As I point out every year, troughing struggling to get past the meridian is what you want to see as you enter November. Nov 2009 featured this in abundance. To my eyes it looks as though the strat is going to be roughed up slightly over the next couple of weeks.

This is a prelude to a pattern change as we go further into Nov and Dec.

A period of meridional jet stream across the Atlantic looks odds on to me latter Nov/into December. The seasonals concur with this too, which is good.

Edited October 25, 2022 by CreweCold

[Jordan S]

GFS also shows a similar looking low pressure system for 2nd November, likely to be very wet and windy, but the possibility of stormy weather for southern areas if these charts do materialise, interesting track coming more from far to our south than the typical west or southwest. 

Yeah scrap the higher pressure building close to or over southern areas for the first few days of November. Looking much more mobile and unsettled for all infact more unsettled than the rest of this month..

but turning cooler than recently, again though possibly more northwesterly winds becoming established for the second week of November with wet and windy weather likely to continue, so plentiful rain about even for southern and eastern England, with snow possibly falling for Scotland later on into the second week perhaps to lower levels too in any heavy bursts of precipitation with signs of the continent also cooling down to a more significant degree.

Edited October 25, 2022 by Jordan S

[tight isobar]

2 hours ago, MAF said:

agree with you there, it just read like a load of gobbledygook to me

Fairenuff.. I’ll do a Beano cartoon mag version later !.. let me know when you’ve been bathed n, bottle fed by the missus...n, I’ll apply

[*Stormforce~beka*]

52 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Fairenuff.. I’ll do a Beano cartoon mag version later !.. let me know when you’ve been bathed n, bottle fed by the missus...n, I’ll apply

Breast is best ... lol

[halny]

6 hours ago, tight isobar said:

We got “rattling “ into the layers- things are likely to change in dramatic alleys!. Strat/trop- disturbance is setting in.. the USA will as (ever) see the dripping , @ vortex finding. But disconnect of format puts a probable carve into the polar vortex as a whole @ mid November!! Then things change rapidly... And the notability sways to the euro side... the angular momentum- And warm pocket advection STRENGTH into the arctic is striking heading into early early winter!.. we’ll keep a steady hand 🖐 and watch to see if the beef dripping of layers.. fall on our bread ?!

My attempt at translation into layman's terms:

The potential displacement of the stratospheric vortex will, as usual, most likely benefit the continental US.

However, if some seemingly impossible conditions are met, come late November, Europe may get a look in too.

Edited October 25, 2022 by halny

[minus10]

Yes i would think most of the autumn leaves and many of the branches would be blown down in the se if gfs12z verified at day 8..

After it looks like gfs wants to create an increasing vortex nw of scotland...mm..

Still fairly mild for approx 2/3 rds of run although falling away towards the back end..

For me. Looking like any change to colder weather will be gradual however that could all change of course...

[Cambrian]

Captain’s Log, Stardate 12z GFS op at day 5, day 10, day 15….

   

And totally logical when we look at the means, low pressure remaining in aimless orbit around Iceland while the lowest heights ominously teleport to the western quadrant of the Northern Hemisphere of this (un)strange (un)new world some of us instantly recognise as home.

   

[Methuselah]

Better still @Cambrian: It' a log, Jim. But not as we know it!

[damianslaw]

2 hours ago, Jordan S said:

GFS also shows a similar looking low pressure system for 2nd November, likely to be very wet and windy, but the possibility of stormy weather for southern areas if these charts do materialise, interesting track coming more from far to our south than the typical west or southwest. 

Yeah scrap the higher pressure building close to or over southern areas for the first few days of November. Looking much more mobile and unsettled for all infact more unsettled than the rest of this month..

but turning cooler than recently, again though possibly more northwesterly winds becoming established for the second week of November with wet and windy weather likely to continue, so plentiful rain about even for southern and eastern England, with snow possibly falling for Scotland later on into the second week perhaps to lower levels too in any heavy bursts of precipitation with signs of the continent also cooling down to a more significant degree.

Just a hint the trough is setting up to align NW- SE, forcing low pressure to dig south and south east.. 

[Allseasons-Si]

Good evening all

JFF but good to look at,...call me crazy but whilst the models show weather porn like this,...i will keep on posting them

P16,...2010 esque

Edit: and just to add,...the gefs ext'd mjo goes into a higher amplitude phase 7 as we go into mid Nov>,...one to watch.

Edited October 25, 2022 by Allseasons-si
typo/added info

[Ross90]

The GFS looks a bit lost for the first week of Nov. The low is just twirling around Iceland occasionally drifting over us. It's a bit of a stuck pattern at the moment but c'mon...

[PiscesStar]

From the look at the latest gfs it's more of the same I'm afraid. That is until around 160+ hours when there are signs of change. 

[Cheshire Freeze]

The hemispheric picture is starting to look interesting at the back end of pretty much every GFS run now

The chart above, for example, is a huge strat disturber.

Note the similarity of the back end GFS op to November 2009...

Exactly what we want to see if a cold December is your kinda thing.

One thing I have noticed is that we don't seem to be following the traditional La Nina analogues across the Atlantic sector. We'd expect to see a mean +ve height anomaly to our west by now, however we have troughing with hints of early stratospheric disturbance. All very interesting.

Edited October 26, 2022 by CreweCold

[Sky Full]

The 500hpa charts for the start of November bear comparison this morning:

1st November 

UKMO                                                            GEM

    

2nd November

GFS.                                                             ECM

    

Still five or six days away - plenty of time for evolution - but it looks like an unsettled, wet and windy start to the month, for the west and north at least.

[MAF]

15 hours ago, tight isobar said:

Fairenuff.. I’ll do a Beano cartoon mag version later !.. let me know when you’ve been bathed n, bottle fed by the missus...n, I’ll apply

Having been around here for 18 years, i have learnt a lot about model reading and weather. My point i was trying to make is that there are a lot of viewers of these threads who are novices and find over technical posts difficult to interpret. sometimes posts are so technical they probably get ignored as its too difficult to understand them. with such a diverse audience, i wish sometimes that posters would give explainers with the more complex posts they make  

[snefnug]

1 hour ago, MAF said:

Having been around here for 18 years, i have learnt a lot about model reading and weather. My point i was trying to make is that there are a lot of viewers of these threads who are novices and find over technical posts difficult to interpret. sometimes posts are so technical they probably get ignored as its too difficult to understand them. with such a diverse audience, i wish sometimes that posters would give explainers with the more complex posts they make  

I agree, but I do love his posts, it’s like trying to do Guardian Cryptic Crossword.  Sometimes I think I get it,  other times it’s

Edited October 26, 2022 by snefnug

[Rain All Night]

It looks like we might be going to cop it in the early days of November when our European wall of protection finally falls. But might the trough then not be long for this world..?

 

Edited October 26, 2022 by RainAllNight

[damianslaw]

Is the ENSO not playing ball as expected in la nina base state, should be seeing high pressure mid atlantic and trough to east, yet we have the opposite.. seem to remember in 2020-21 often did the same... behaved more El Nino with amplified jet. Perhaps we may end up with a negatively aligned trough over UK squeezed by heights to NE and west before those to the west take over.

[sundog]

The latest gfs run 06z ,says no to any change to seasonal weather when there was tentative signs of hope around mid Nov. Hp over Europe even into the far reaches of the run. Only one run but bloody hell,are seasonal temperatures too much to ask for these days?

Edited October 26, 2022 by sundog

[Weather Enthusiast91]

These charts aren't looking very promising as there still isn't much sign of a return to seasonal temperatures. Any signs just keep getting pushed back, which has been a common occurence during 2022.

If this is the future for our autumns, then I may have to (finances permitting) consider emigrating.