Model Output Discussion - Deeper into Autumn

[121]

5 hours ago, MAF said:

Having been around here for 18 years, i have learnt a lot about model reading and weather. My point i was trying to make is that there are a lot of viewers of these threads who are novices and find over technical posts difficult to interpret. sometimes posts are so technical they probably get ignored as its too difficult to understand them. with such a diverse audience, i wish sometimes that posters would give explainers with the more complex posts they make  

Just to throw some perspective at this (sorry mod’s - appreciate this is somewhat derailing); I too have been kicking about in here for years but TI and Jon Snow’s delivery of their analysis, I quite often take in more from those than any others where you can get lost in technical phrases. People learn differently.

Anyways, nearly sausage bap and Stella’s all round time of year!

[Daniel*]

At this point a return to near normal will be comforting this is favoured outcome into early November. Calling winter a dud in October is silly - remember our climate is known for variability, this year is being anomalously warm even on last decade it won’t persist forever. 

[SteveB]

22 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

At this point a return to near normal will be comforting this is favoured outcome into early November. Calling winter a dud in October is silly - remember our climate is known for variability, this year is being anomalously warm even on last decade it won’t persist forever. 

Agree it won't persist forever, but it might persist for a lifetime. 

[Scorcher]

No doubt the cold fans will be pleased, but it's a big shame to see us just miss out on a potentially memorable late warm spell.

I know many have remarked on the warmth of this year so far, but I feel we've actually narrowly missed out on quite a few more  potential warm spells since the spring, with the models often correcting nearer the time and sending all the heat/warmth into the continent.

Remarkable to see some of the predicted temps on the near continent. Paris for example up to 25C potentially on Saturday- incredible at 48 degrees north only days before November. Only would have taken a slightly different setup to send that air our way.

Edited October 26, 2022 by Scorcher

[Sceptical]

3 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

No doubt the cold fans will be pleased, but it's a big shame to see us just miss out on a potentially memorable late warm spell.

I know many have remarked on the warmth of this year so far, but I feel we've actually narrowly missed out on quite a few more  potential warm spells since the spring, with the models often correcting nearer the time and sending all the heat/warmth into the continent.

Remarkable to see some of the predicted temps on the near continent. Paris for example up to 25C potentially on Saturday- incredible at 48 degrees north only days before November. Only would have taken a slightly different setup to send that air our way.

The Met Office see the above average temperatures continue well into November.

[Rain All Night]

5 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

No doubt the cold fans will be pleased, but it's a big shame to see us just miss out on a potentially memorable late warm spell.

I know many have remarked on the warmth of this year so far, but I feel we've actually narrowly missed out on quite a few more  potential warm spells since the spring, with the models often correcting nearer the time and sending all the heat/warmth into the continent.

Remarkable to see some of the predicted temps on the near continent. Paris for example up to 25C potentially on Saturday- incredible at 48 degrees north only days before November. Only would have taken a slightly different setup to send that air our way.

Well said! Nice to see I am not alone in here

[Don]

4 minutes ago, Sceptical said:

The Met Office see the above average temperatures continue well into November.

Yep, any colder weather being put back and the s word has been dropped.  Been here before and alarm bells now well and truly ringing for the next season!!

9 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

No doubt the cold fans will be pleased, but it's a big shame to see us just miss out on a potentially memorable late warm spell.

I think you'll find the cold fans are anything but pleased!!

[Rain All Night]

25 minutes ago, Sceptical said:

The Met Office see the above average temperatures continue well into November.

I would have actually taken the settled spell even if it meant that the mild temps ended, as I loved our high pressure November and January last year, but today's wording suggests the south may not now see this.

[Scorcher]

34 minutes ago, Sceptical said:

The Met Office see the above average temperatures continue well into November.

Oh yes above average without a doubt until mid next week at least- but it's just short of being 'exceptional' I think, which looked likely just a couple of days ago. Probably 16-20C widely over the next 5 days or so, rather than 23/24C for some that looked like a possibility at one point a couple of days back.

[TSNWK]

1 hour ago, Don said:

Yep, any colder weather being put back and the s word has been dropped.  Been here before and alarm bells now well and truly ringing for the next season!!

I think you'll find the cold fans are anything but pleased!!

Are you seriously concerned for winter on 26th October.. nearly 2 months before the soltice and 3 months before heart of winter..  lets stretch this mildness out another 6 weeks at least I say and then we should start looking for the real deal

[I remember Atlantic 252]

1 hour ago, Scorcher said:

Oh yes above average without a doubt until mid next week at least- but it's just short of being 'exceptional' I think, which looked likely just a couple of days ago. Probably 16-20C widely over the next 5 days or so, rather than 23/24C for some that looked like a possibility at one point a couple of days back.

I still want it warm for now, still seems like summer, want the cold setups arriving when decent snow is possible! at this lousy area certainly isn't now

[Rain All Night]

1 hour ago, Don said:

Yep, any colder weather being put back and the s word has been dropped.  Been here before and alarm bells now well and truly ringing for the next season!!

I think you'll find the cold fans are anything but pleased!!

There is hope for you yet...

[Don]

24 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

Are you seriously concerned for winter on 26th October.. nearly 2 months before the soltice and 3 months before heart of winter..  lets stretch this mildness out another 6 weeks at least I say and then we should start looking for the real deal

It's still very early days of course, so I can understand you're thinking and why you ask lol!  However, with long range models generally going for cold earlier on in the winter season and milder later, I would like to see things at least return to normal sooner rather than later!

[johncam]

6 minutes ago, Don said:

It's still very early days of course, so I can understand you're thinking and why you ask lol!  However, with long range models generally going for cold earlier on in the winter season and milder later, I would like to see things at least return to normal sooner rather than later!

Correct Don , near continent is also very warm for this time of year and with mild/ warm weather forecast until  mid November, don't see anything changing anytime soon 

[Rain All Night]

11 minutes ago, Don said:

It's still very early days of course, so I can understand you're thinking and why you ask lol!  However, with long range models generally going for cold earlier on in the winter season and milder later, I would like to see things at least return to normal sooner rather than later!

Genuine question, which models have shown cold in the winter season? I had a look at the Copernicus seasonal forecast charts (it might have been you who linked me to them) and I don't remember seeing anything other than warm or neutral signals throughout.

https://climate.copernicus.eu/charts/c3s_seasonal_spatial_mm_t850_3m?facets=undefined&time=2022100100,744,2022110100&type=tsum&area=area08

 

[Froze were the Days]

2 hours ago, Don said:

Yep, any colder weather being put back and the s word has been dropped.  Been here before and alarm bells now well and truly ringing for the next season!!

Said that EC46 was about as accurate as Stevie Wonder at darts...huge dose of salt as soon as I saw it, latest ECM mixed at 240z and still when Lp's get near the UK has the tendency to want to move northwards away from Europe where the continuous heat bubble continues.

[sundog]

54 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

Are you seriously concerned for winter on 26th October.. nearly 2 months before the soltice and 3 months before heart of winter..  lets stretch this mildness out another 6 weeks at least I say and then we should start looking for the real deal

No thanks.  That line of thinking didn't work out so well last yr did it? That stretch out to 6 weeks can very quickly become 10 weeks ,12 weeks ,14 weeks  etc and before we know winter has come and gone.  I like seasonal weather, fed up to the back teeth these last many many months of mostly above average temperatures. 

[Don]

27 minutes ago, RainAllNight said:

Genuine question, which models have shown cold in the winter season? I had a look at the Copernicus seasonal forecast charts (it might have been you who linked me to them) and I don't remember seeing anything other than warm or neutral signals throughout.

https://climate.copernicus.eu/charts/c3s_seasonal_spatial_mm_t850_3m?facets=undefined&time=2022100100,744,2022110100&type=tsum&area=area08

 

It's the patterns that need to be taken note of, rather than temp anomalies as they often show average or warm probabilities, even when patterns suggest otherwise.  It wasn't myself who linked them to you.

[blizzard81]

This is what I like to see as we enter November. Trough disruption in our vicinity. Very reminiscent of early November 2009.

[damianslaw]

1 hour ago, Froze were the Days said:

Said that EC46 was about as accurate as Stevie Wonder at darts...huge dose of salt as soon as I saw it, latest ECM mixed at 240z and still when Lp's get near the UK has the tendency to want to move northwards away from Europe where the continuous heat bubble continues.

Need to remember Euro highs in November will become increasingly colder at the surface, warmth will be eroded naturally as a result of continued cooling in the continent.. not quite at that point yet, but mid Nov onwards sees the change. 

[summer blizzard]

Euro basically shows our Euro high being displaced by a UK trough. Still wet, probably a tad mild at night.

[matty40s]

23 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

Euro basically shows our Euro high being displaced by a UK trough. Still wet, probably a tad mild at night.

A tad mild....its 15.4c here at present, hasnt dropped below 12c at night for almost a week.

I think the models are looking at sticking the UK between systems for the forseeable 3 week future, occasional fronts but more very mild weather.

[Uncertainty]

Barely any model discussion on here tonight . Loads of climate discourse and very few charts. This thread is where you analyse and discuss the latest model output, not ruminate on the loss of another potential cold U.K. winter over a month before it’s even started.

If I were wanting a real cold spell, not a weak chilly November Atlantic ridge that flatters to deceive but allows the SPV to ultimately dominate (Ala last year), I’d be looking for a Scandi (high) Greenland (low) dipole to disturb the strat and kick off the blocking that the seasonals have long suggested.

A but like this then, late on the Gem ens…

 

2/3rds of eps members have a similar picture, but look more unsettled generally

In the meantime (e.g the next 10-14 days) it will continue wet in the W and quite possibly nationwide should the low move closer.

Should this pattern persist, sooner or later the SW winds will align and a very wet atmospheric river episode could occur, we have avoided one so far with the southerly nature to the flow.

Longer term, it may be a 2009 redux, it may not. But don’t forget the purpose of this thread before you post. 

[damianslaw]

52 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

Euro basically shows our Euro high being displaced by a UK trough. Still wet, probably a tad mild at night.

ECM this evening more akin to what some of the GFS models were showing last couple of days up until today.. suggestion the trough will become unstuck over the UK, indeed possibly fill, or negatively align in time, trapped by heights to the west and east, and its then a case of seeing the heights win out.. probably those from the west, could easily see a wrap around where low heights sink south and heights build over the top - this would be in line with Met thoughts, wet in south and more settled and colder further north. I sense the models are seeing a pattern change as we move towards mid Nov, but not quite sure of things just yet, need things to play out a good week or so, before anyone calls shop on a change away from the current very mild southerly/south westerly influence.

[damianslaw]

9 minutes ago, Uncertainy said:

Barely any model discussion on here tonight . Loads of climate discourse and very few charts. This thread is where you analyse and discuss the latest model output, not ruminate on the loss of another potential cold U.K. winter over a month before it’s even started.

If I were wanting a real cold spell, not a weak chilly November Atlantic ridge that flatters to deceive but allows the SPV to ultimately dominate (Ala last year), I’d be looking for a Scandi (high) Greenland (low) dipole to disturb the strat and kick off the blocking that the seasonals have long suggested.

A but like this then, late on the Gem ens…

 

2/3rds of eps members have a similar picture, but look more unsettled generally

In the meantime (e.g the next 10-14 days) it will continue wet in the W and quite possibly nationwide should the low move closer.

Should this pattern persist, sooner or later the SW winds will align and a very wet atmospheric river episode could occur, we have avoided one so far with the southerly nature to the flow.

Longer term, it may be a 2009 redux, it may not. But don’t forget the purpose of this thread before you post. 

Oh I hope no Nov 2009 redux, one of wettest months on record here, with disasterous flooding, but yes I can see the trough becoming slow moving with copious rainfall... and its not a bad pattern for building blocks for something colder longer term, as it suggests heights to the NE blocking the trough's passage., as indeed we saw in 2009.

 

A word on anyone using this thread to write off winter cold and snow, please don't - use the winter thread for now, and then the moan thread.