Model Output Discussion - Deeper into Autumn

[damianslaw]

1 hour ago, Uncertainy said:

Jam tomorrow perhaps, but the EPS have really come on board with the +SCAND pattern idea, so much so that we almost have a mean easterly flow by the end of the run. A rare beast at that range I can tell you and often indicative of a genuine signal rather that anomaly ‘noise’.

 

Compare this to the GEM ensembles, which are reasonably similar

Which translate to this anomaly chart

 

With the JMA weeklies giving the same picture, and the mjo forecast to stay between phases 5 and 7 for the foreseeable, I’d say the SPV is already getting a tad nervous…

 

The chances of a drier, more seasonal period in mid to late November are higher than normal.

 

The regimes show a clear bias towards blocking patterns.

More speculatively, the foundations for a colder early winter period are also starting to fit into place. 

Looking very blocky, good if you like frost and fog. and by late Nov a high overhead can produce very cold air at the surface and our own UK cold pool.

[sheikhy]

Man it has been extremely wet here in the midlands over the last week!pretty depressing really!!and worse thing we got the boring mild wet weather for sometime yet!!!

[BlueHedgehog074]

It looks like the weather for the UK will cool down a bit as the very mild to warm Southerly flow becomes toast. The Atlantic and its Lows does start to take more influence and the flow over the UK becomes more Westerly to South-Westerly (examples from various models around 168 to 240 hours)…
GFS 00Z

ECMWF 00Z

 

GEM 00Z

 

…but considering what some of the operational models were showing yesterday, for those wanting some proper chilly and/or dry conditions, it does feel like a…

this morning!

I would however say it’s a bit early to worry yet for those after some blocked, settled and/or cold conditions. (Maybe if this sort of theme continued after mid-month, then it might become more of a concern). Is possible some of these operational models could be a touch progressive with the progression of the Atlantic Lows from later next week onwards. And even then, it kinda feels as though the Lows struggle a little bit to push too far to the East of the UK - after all the core of the lowest upper heights seem to just stay put to the North-West of the UK. Wouldn’t say the pattern upstream, especially on the GFS, is terribly flat either (some amplification towards the Western Atlantic with still signs of the high heights towards Southern and South-Eastern mainland Europe).

If I’ve also analysed the latest 8 to 14 day 500mb NOAA anomaly chart correctly, although it shows an upper Westerly flow being maintained over the UK, I feel it gives the impression of Atlantic Lows struggling to make huge progress Eastwards to the East of the UK - the lowest of heights staying out West. 


 

Think for some, it should start to feel a bit more like Autumn into next week, while mostly feeling like standard fayre. Some, though, still wanting drier and/or colder conditions - plenty of time for it yet.

Just slight hints maybe that the 00Z operational models being a smidge fast with the Atlantic (or probably any incursions from the Atlantic Lows being temporary). Nevertheless, I admit because that anomaly chart above goes up to day 14, and I only used examples from the operational models up to day 10, I may be being a bit biased in my approach and model comparisons. Plus in deeper FI, the 00Z GFS does have the heights to the South-East of the UK somewhat starting to put up more of a fight again.

Personally, despite some of the wet conditions, have been enjoying some of the very mild weather that’s been on offer this week making it feel quite Summer-like at times. 

[damianslaw]

4 hours ago, DiagonalRedLine said:

It looks like the weather for the UK will cool down a bit as the very mild to warm Southerly flow becomes toast. The Atlantic and its Lows does start to take more influence and the flow over the UK becomes more Westerly to South-Westerly (examples from various models around 168 to 240 hours)…
GFS 00Z

ECMWF 00Z

 

GEM 00Z

 

…but considering what some of the operational models were showing yesterday, for those wanting some proper chilly and/or dry conditions, it does feel like a…

this morning!

I would however say it’s a bit early to worry yet for those after some blocked, settled and/or cold conditions. (Maybe if this sort of theme continued after mid-month, then it might become more of a concern). Is possible some of these operational models could be a touch progressive with the progression of the Atlantic Lows from later next week onwards. And even then, it kinda feels as though the Lows struggle a little bit to push too far to the East of the UK - after all the core of the lowest upper heights seem to just stay put to the North-West of the UK. Wouldn’t say the pattern upstream, especially on the GFS, is terribly flat either (some amplification towards the Western Atlantic with still signs of the high heights towards Southern and South-Eastern mainland Europe).

If I’ve also analysed the latest 8 to 14 day 500mb NOAA anomaly chart correctly, although it shows an upper Westerly flow being maintained over the UK, I feel it gives the impression of Atlantic Lows struggling to make huge progress Eastwards to the East of the UK - the lowest of heights staying out West. 


 

Think for some, it should start to feel a bit more like Autumn into next week, while mostly feeling like standard fayre. Some, though, still wanting drier and/or colder conditions - plenty of time for it yet.

Just slight hints maybe that the 00Z operational models being a smidge fast with the Atlantic (or probably any incursions from the Atlantic Lows being temporary). Nevertheless, I admit because that anomaly chart above goes up to day 14, and I only used examples from the operational models up to day 10, I may be being a bit biased in my approach and model comparisons. Plus in deeper FI, the 00Z GFS does have the heights to the South-East of the UK somewhat starting to put up more of a fight again.

Personally, despite some of the wet conditions, have been enjoying some of the very mild weather that’s been on offer this week making it feel quite Summer-like at times. 

Yes seems a case the atlantic trough becoming unstuck against the imprenetable euro heights, at times it may inch east through the UK before being pushed west again.. need some sort of major shake up to bring colder drier conditions.. the output shows no clear path to such change... yet at least.. is there a brick wall in the N Sea? 

[BlueHedgehog074]

7 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

…is there a brick wall in the N Sea? 

With the way the models are continuing to go, sounds like there must be lol. Managing to withstand much force from the West at the moment. A wall, though, that may lead to favourable outcomes for the cold weather enthusiasts further down the line.

Edited October 28, 2022 by DiagonalRedLine
(Typo)

[damianslaw]

2 hours ago, DiagonalRedLine said:

With the way the models are continuing to go, sounds like there must be lol. Managing to withstand much force from the West at the moment. A wall, though, that may lead to favourable outcomes for the cold weather enthusiasts further down the line.

Perhaps it well take a freezing easterly to bring it down! The deeping of the trough in mid atlantic reason why, this year has seen the jet split on many occasion with cut off lows to our SW, or just digging far south to our west for some reason promoting heights to build to the east of it, the UK has by and large sat at the boundary line meaning the airstream has been predominantly due south and west.. as a consequence of the block to the east and south east.. if such a pattern held sway, the block would in time become colder and we may exchange the mild theme for something much colder.. trough disruption the order of the day.. 

[johncam]

More mild muck on GFS , we need to get rid of the continental high 

[damianslaw]

30 minutes ago, johncam said:

More mild muck on GFS , we need to get rid of the continental high 

Short term yes, but medium term it pulls in colder polar air for a time, begore far reaches powers up the atlantic on a westerly with no sign of high pressure on the scene. 

More importantly though are the brief ridges setting in during next few days, suggesting the atmosphere wants to settle down.

[northwestsnow]

33 minutes ago, johncam said:

More mild muck on GFS , we need to get rid of the continental high 

GFS absolutely not interested in any HP near our shores out as far as the eye can see.

If anything a raging +NAO ..

 

[Methuselah]

5 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Short term yes, but medium term it pulls in colder polar air for a time, begore far reaches powers up the atlantic on a westerly with no sign of high pressure on the scene. 

More importantly though are the brief ridges setting in during next few days, suggesting the atmosphere wants to settle down.

True, Damain -- but that's been the case since early June or so; the Atlantic still hasn't broken through the European heat dome. At least not decisively?

[johncam]

2 hours ago, johncam said:

More mild muck on GFS , we need to get rid of the continental high 

Good god ECM just as bad 

[damianslaw]

Just now, johncam said:

Good god ECM just as bad 

ECM shows warm air advection and a big high would probably develop over scandi just afterwards.. 

[johncam]

No doubt,  we will draw in southerly winds , that would be typical,  haven't even had a frost yet 

[Froze were the Days]

1 hour ago, Ed Stone said:

True, Damain -- but that's been the case since early June or so; the Atlantic still hasn't broken through the European heat dome. At least not decisively?

Exactly! ECM finishes where it left off with the Atlantic systems so far north we end up with another plume (of sorts)...as you say the most dominant continuous feature of the last few months. I've heard a few say we can get our own UK cold pool if we have HP close to the UK but at best I reckon we'll be looking at near daily norms if we're talking into December...still so warm on the continent, we're really scraping >

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

It does look pretty unsettled for the foreseeable on GFS. Not sure if MetO settled spell will ever materialise at this rate…

[damianslaw]

GFS 18z pulling in colder polar air to the north at least next weekend. Jetstream also heading further south, sign of heights being kicked further west, whicg could be the trigger to something colder and more settled once the trough swings east.

However, the models are throwing out alot of different output around 8-10 day range, and I continue to think because there is a pattern change on the cards but they are not settling yet on how things will pan out. May well take a week or so for things to be clearer.

Edited October 28, 2022 by damianslaw

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

It might be the cfs (tbh I don't think it really deserves the tag of a fodder model that some give it) it's a recurring sight with recent outputs and fits with expectations for upcoming patterns  

[mushymanrob]

Thats some block developing to our Northeast, its been a feature for several days now. The question is, will it continue to build? It must also be putting pressure on the SPV ..

 

[johncam]

7 hours ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

It might be the cfs (tbh I don't think it really deserves the tag of a fodder model that some give it) it's a recurring sight with recent outputs and fits with expectations for upcoming patterns  

Wishful thinking mate , if only , we will be stuck under sw for the foreseeable 

[northwestsnow]

EC joins GFS and gives up on any idea of drying out.

As zonal as it gets out to day 10 ,and beyond.

[damianslaw]

30 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

Thats some block developing to our Northeast, its been a feature for several days now. The question is, will it continue to build? It must also be putting pressure on the SPV ..

 

Its the opposite to expected La Nina imprint, which really does seem to be outflanked by other factors last couple of years, should have ridge to west and trough to east.

Alas there is a path to this scenario, should the azores high link over the top with the trough cut off and shunted south, heights then transfer west... the high to the NE needs to ridge further west though for this to happen.

[damianslaw]

2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

EC joins GFS and gives up on any idea of drying out.

As zonal as it gets out to day 10 ,and beyond.

The jet does appear to be digging south on this chart, the azores high is being pulled west, the low could swing SE with strong ridge building behind.. indeed probably nedds a burst of zonal weather to get to somethimg more settled and blocky.. deeper lows allow for stronger ridges..

[sheikhy]

25 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

EC joins GFS and gives up on any idea of drying out.

As zonal as it gets out to day 10 ,and beyond.

Im thinking third week of november onwards for any blocking/cold/snow!!!but until then a proper snooze fest!!

[northwestsnow]

9 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Im thinking third week of november onwards for any blocking/cold/snow!!!but until then a proper snooze fest!!

I'm taking a break and it's not even November

Semi joking aside the +NAO pattern looks very very entrenched.

Hoping EC46 keeps to the drying out theme on Monday but would want to be seeing a change in the extended timeframe soon..

[carinthian]

3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

I'm taking a break and it's not even November

Semi joking aside the +NAO pattern looks very very entrenched.

Hoping EC46 keeps to the drying out theme on Monday but would want to be seeing a change in the extended timeframe soon..

Yep, grim set up for those looking for even more seasonal temps , never mind cold. Our snow cannons rolled out this week , I think will be redundant for a wee bit longer yet looking at the models this morning.

C