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ENSO and Winters


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Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby

Theres a "thing" going around various weather forums, including on here, that a La Nina phase supposed to be more favourable for a cold UK Winter.

Well, lets look at the actual stats... and for this ive taken the Met Offices 20 coldest Winters by CET since 1950, 1950 is because thats when ENSO apparently started to be recorded.. at least from this site
https://ggweather.com/enso/oni.htm 

So, what do the stats say?

According to that site, there was 25 El Nino phases, 23 La nina and 23 Neutral.

The following Winters?
The El Nino phase had 7 cold Winters, the La Nina had 6, and Neutral had 7.

That suggests that whatever phase ENSO is in, a cold Winter happens about 1/3 so a La Nina phase doesnt increase chances of a cold Winter. And actually, it was a Neutral phase brought us the coldest Winters - 62/3, 78/9, 81/2, 85/6, with an eQBO for the coldest 3.

I dare say things may well be more complicated then this, but on the face of it, no one ENSO phase appears to have any impact on how cold our Winter will be.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
9 hours ago, mushymanrob said:

Theres a "thing" going around various weather forums, including on here, that a La Nina phase supposed to be more favourable for a cold UK Winter.

Well, lets look at the actual stats... and for this ive taken the Met Offices 20 coldest Winters by CET since 1950, 1950 is because thats when ENSO apparently started to be recorded.. at least from this site
https://ggweather.com/enso/oni.htm 

So, what do the stats say?

According to that site, there was 25 El Nino phases, 23 La nina and 23 Neutral.

The following Winters?
The El Nino phase had 7 cold Winters, the La Nina had 6, and Neutral had 7.

That suggests that whatever phase ENSO is in, a cold Winter happens about 1/3 so a La Nina phase doesnt increase chances of a cold Winter. And actually, it was a Neutral phase brought us the coldest Winters - 62/3, 78/9, 81/2, 85/6, with an eQBO for the coldest 3.

I dare say things may well be more complicated then this, but on the face of it, no one ENSO phase appears to have any impact on how cold our Winter will be.

 

Any stats first half of winter, as many forecasts suggesting a colder first half.

Also I thought la nina promotes ridge ho our west Nov, but no sign of this in the models, the trough stuck limpet our west and ridge east. What is going on?

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Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby
12 hours ago, damianslaw said:

Any stats first half of winter, as many forecasts suggesting a colder first half.

Also I thought la nina promotes ridge ho our west Nov, but no sign of this in the models, the trough stuck limpet our west and ridge east. What is going on?

i dont think theres any evidence that la nina promotes a ridge to our west.

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