Winter 2022-23 : Forecasts and Discussions

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Amazing cold pooling in Siberia.  Record snow in US, record cold also accompanying in US and Canada.  Could be a 1984 redux with caveats that Atlantic is warmer

BFTP

[Methuselah]

16 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Amazing cold pooling in Siberia.  Record snow in US, record cold also accompanying in US and Canada.  Could be a 1984 redux with caveats that Atlantic is warmer

BFTP

In other words, Fred... Who knows? Because I certainly don't!

[Don]

35 minutes ago, Josh S said:

2019/20! What on earth is suggesting that Don? Unsettled weather in November? C’mon pal: Not one of the seasonals has that signal, and they all had it at this point that winter. I’d say a 16/17 winter is plausible, and of course the nightmare scenario winter is always possible, but there’s no evidence for that right now.

The PV is misbehaving and looks to remain that way moving forward, which doesn't bode well for early winter and considering the coming season looked to be a front loaded affair and milder/wetter later on, that's not a great trend.  Winter 2016/17 was pretty poor too, albeit not overly wet. 

[Uncertainty]

2 minutes ago, Don said:

The PV is misbehaving and looks to remain that way moving forward, which doesn't bode well for early winter and considering the coming season looked to be a front loaded affair and milder/wetter later on, that's not a great trend.  Winter 2016/17 was pretty poor too, albeit not overly wet. 

Perhaps, but 19/20 was an exceptional event. There is no analog, statistical or modelling based analysis I can see to support suggesting we likely to be in for a +++NAO winter. An ssw is more likely than normal this winter (c/o Tonga and the cold southern strat this year). There is no strong +IOD like that winter. The Nina is east-based (supports blocking). The +solar/Wqbo combo supports blocking. December continues to look blocked on the 46 and most seasonal forecasts. 

Unless you are able to share convincing evidence to support your assertion, then I will have to respectfully disagree my friend.

[damianslaw]

Need to give it a good week to see potential trend for December at least.  The current low pressure barrage could very quickly dusrupt I feel early Dec, colder settled weather will take over. All aided by MJO cycle, el nino esque background. Don't be clouded by immediate prospects. 

[Don]

1 hour ago, Josh S said:

Unless you are able to share convincing evidence to support your assertion, then I will have to respectfully disagree my friend.

Evidence in my view is that all months of this year have been mainly well above average, bar January which was merely average compared to 91-20.  However, it was still a mild month compared to say 61-90.  Also, climate change appears to be increasingly overriding supportive teleconnections for cold weather patterns, making a colder winter ever more difficult (but by no means impossible).  Remember last year, there was a lot of support for a cold winter and up until just prior to Christmas it looked to be going well, before collapsing into a heap!  That said, I sincerely hope to be proved wrong 

Edited November 18, 2022 by Don

[damianslaw]

5 minutes ago, Don said:

Evidence in my view is that all months of this year have been mainly well above average, bar January which was merely average compared to 91-20.  However, it was still a mild month compared to say 61-90.  Also, climate change appears to be increasingly overriding supportive teleconnections of cold weather patterns, making a colder winter ever more difficult (but by no means impossible).  Remember last year, there was a lot of support for a cold winter and up until just prior to Christmas it looked to be going well, before collapsing into a heap!  That said, I sincerely hope to be proved wrong 

A month will break the trend, just not sure when! 

[MP-R]

Take a look through the CFS current run... it's a thing of beauty for coldies. The Atlantic does one at the start of December and doesn't break through again until March lol. We can dream.

[SqueakheartLW]

Just got this one in before they locked the thread. Have linked it here. I do hope what I have shown here starts to happen in the model output more often.

[summer blizzard]

21 hours ago, Don said:

Evidence in my view is that all months of this year have been mainly well above average, bar January which was merely average compared to 91-20.  However, it was still a mild month compared to say 61-90.  Also, climate change appears to be increasingly overriding supportive teleconnections for cold weather patterns, making a colder winter ever more difficult (but by no means impossible).  Remember last year, there was a lot of support for a cold winter and up until just prior to Christmas it looked to be going well, before collapsing into a heap!  That said, I sincerely hope to be proved wrong 

I'm not sold on climate change being the sole reason for the run of unexceptional winters the past 9 years. I can't remember which years were the case but last year I looked at the teleconnective and made some assumptions and then looked which winters were as mild/cold as expected. I came to the judgment that only 3 of the winters had underperformed and only 1 had overperformed but the other 5 were as expected.

Essentially our teleconnective profile the last 9 winters had often favoured average/mild over cold and that wasn't really down to climate change.

[summer blizzard]

Tentative signs that winter may arrive in some form. Euro is pretty consistent with it's pressure builds and the Arctic has relatively pressure. No repeat of 2010 but cold in feel.

[damianslaw]

51 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

Tentative signs that winter may arrive in some form. Euro is pretty consistent with it's pressure builds and the Arctic has relatively pressure. No repeat of 2010 but cold in feel.

Recent cold dry starts to winter include 2012 and 2017. 

[Summer8906]

On 17/11/2022 at 22:20, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Amazing cold pooling in Siberia.  Record snow in US, record cold also accompanying in US and Canada.  Could be a 1984 redux with caveats that Atlantic is warmer

BFTP

When we say 1984, which end do we mean? Big difference in outcome depending on that!

Edited November 20, 2022 by Summer8906

[Catacol]

I'm beginning to like the hemispheric wave pattern in terms of longer term strat impacts. I would expect to see some wave 2 pressure gather momentum through December. With a Nino atmospheric response continuing to dominate, and forecasts of a potential movement of the MJO through the maritimes, we have a chance of something wintry kicking in for the first phase of winter. Usual caveats apply - MJO is a pig to get right, lots of residual European warmth, warm oceans blah blah....but it doesn't look at this stage as though we have an atlantic express inbound as we move into December. No matter what else occurs - no atlantic express and decent signs pointing to blocking in our vicinity ought to force our eyes up...

Wintry might, of course, just mean frost. For me these days I see frost as wintry. A clear day with frost on the ground has become something to be cherished...

[Mapantz]

40 minutes ago, Rayth said:

Does anyone have the link to the model output thread in the lead up to winter 2010? Been looking for nearly an hour now, would be very interesting/educational to see how things developed 

Mods . Please move to an appropriate thread if needed, didn’t know where to put this initially 

I've replied in this thread;

https://community.netweather.tv/forum/1-autumn-weather-discussion/page/185/

 Somewhere around there might be a good starting point.

[Roger J Smith]

I would say blocking is more favoured than in most winters, which is a good start because it's hard to get much of a wintry outcome in the UK without blocking. But of course it could be the wrong form of blocking. 

I'm going to speculate that there will be roughly equal spells of milder and colder than normal regimes and that one or two significant snowfalls will occur. My idea for timing is that mid-December looks good, and some part of January, possibly again in March. 

Yes it may be cold in North America which people tend to assume will drive the jet stream south over the west Atlantic and point it towards Britain, but I think this will be a west-central based cold that frequently extends to the east coast but with more of a variable wind regime than a monsoon off the continent there, so that combined with a fairly good signal for Greenland blocking may lead to low-energy patterns over the Atlantic at times, so it would be unlucky if that didn't also set up colder regimes in western Europe. I don't expect anything quite as significant as the cold of 2009-10 but it might be something like an intermittent version of that. 

[Bricriu]

14 hours ago, Roger J Smith said:

I would say blocking is more favoured than in most winters, which is a good start because it's hard to get much of a wintry outcome in the UK without blocking. But of course it could be the wrong form of blocking. 

I'm going to speculate that there will be roughly equal spells of milder and colder than normal regimes and that one or two significant snowfalls will occur. My idea for timing is that mid-December looks good, and some part of January, possibly again in March. 

Yes it may be cold in North America which people tend to assume will drive the jet stream south over the west Atlantic and point it towards Britain, but I think this will be a west-central based cold that frequently extends to the east coast but with more of a variable wind regime than a monsoon off the continent there, so that combined with a fairly good signal for Greenland blocking may lead to low-energy patterns over the Atlantic at times, so it would be unlucky if that didn't also set up colder regimes in western Europe. I don't expect anything quite as significant as the cold of 2009-10 but it might be something like an intermittent version of that. 

It would take something special to rival 2010. I remember when one particular poster gave out to you back then when it did not snow as in their backyard as you promised.

[S Bragg]

Something tells me this is going to be an "almost but not quite" winter pattern-wise, with a stubborn block to our east persisting for much of the time but never quite managing to extend west enough to bring us any cold or even settled weather.  Indeed, with the block staying put to our east but with an active Atlantic to our west all the block will do is ensure low pressures stall over or near the UK giving very wet, unsettled weather.

Just my thoughts.

[WarwickshireLad]

I think it will be a zonal and mild start followed by a quieter January and February with things finally going abit more average temperature wise and we will have a chance to finally end the long run of above average months most likely January I feel. 

[damianslaw]

2 hours ago, S Bragg said:

Something tells me this is going to be an "almost but not quite" winter pattern-wise, with a stubborn block to our east persisting for much of the time but never quite managing to extend west enough to bring us any cold or even settled weather.  Indeed, with the block staying put to our east but with an active Atlantic to our west all the block will do is ensure low pressures stall over or near the UK giving very wet, unsettled weather.

Just my thoughts.

2020-21 springs to mind.

[SqueakheartLW]

3 hours ago, damianslaw said:

2020-21 springs to mind.

Very similar to 2020/21 I feel.

WQBO like that year

Weak/Moderate La Nina again

Blocking near Scandi and Urals

The only big difference is solar output

[Earthshine]

9 minutes ago, SqueakheartLW said:

Very similar to 2020/21 I feel.

WQBO like that year

Weak/Moderate La Nina again

Blocking near Scandi and Urals

The only big difference is solar output

Also a big injection of water vapour into the stratosphere due to the Tonga eruption.  Supposedly stratospheric cooling/surface warming.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

On 20/11/2022 at 12:40, Summer8906 said:

When we say 1984, which end do we mean? Big difference in outcome depending on that!

Autumn into winter 1984/85

 

BFTP

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

I think the HP to our east will link to the Azores HP and an easterly for western Europe and southern UK will develop after a potential plunging LP down the North Sea.  I like the set up this evenings ECM is showing.  That looks a plausible route to me.  Like I said elsewhere the HP belt in mid latitudes look like they could be positioned right this winter for the cold to come….and that widespread deep cold pooling in Siberia needs watching as it is expanding westwards ever so slowly and it’s beginning to get felt on the European Continent.

 

BFTP

[SqueakheartLW]

Christmas Day has finally just come into range of the GFS Extended model.

Just look at how much scatter there is at this range. Basically the GFS doesn't have a clue what the day will bring but the pleasing initial early sign is how the ensemble mean is below the long term average line so the early hints at least look to be pointing towards something colder than average, at least based on this particular run anyway.

Pre Christmas 2022 cold snaps

Even before Christmas 2022 we get a few potential colder snaps on some of the members

GFS Extended P22 at +348 hours

GFS Extended P02 at +414 hours

GFS Extended P27 at +552 hours

GFS Extended P11 at +582 hours

GFS Extended P26 at +636 hours

GFS Extended P13 at +726 hours

Now for the big day itself

What cold snaps are showing up for Christmas Day itself, or at least midnight at the very start of the day. These are in order from least cold to coldest and all are at least -5C or colder at 850hpa based on Scunthorpe and others selections may vary depending on their location

GFS Extended P05 at 00z on Christmas Day     850hpa temp -5.3C

Dry, cold and frosty most likely here and I would take this one for a seasonable day at least.

GFS Extended P21 at 00z on Christmas Day     850hpa temp -5.6C

What a storm showing up here for Christmas Day. BIN, NO THANK YOU. Don't want to be blown away on the big day, NEXT

GFS Extended P29 at 00z on Christmas Day     850hpa temp -5.7C

Cold zonality showing up here. Not the best setup unless you are in the north or on high ground. I think I'd give this one a miss.

GFS Extended P07 at 00z on Christmas Day     850hpa temp -5.7C

A general flow of cold zonality here for the least cold option with what looks like a southerly tracking low moving in. With those sub -5C uppers around then this one has potential to produce a snow event later in the day for England and Wales. A potential white Christmas option here.

GFS Extended P11 at 00z on Christmas Day     850hpa temp -5.8C

Plenty of northern blocking showing up here on this one but probably a bit too far away to provide the coldest of the air but with a very slack flow and pressure reasonably high then this option is more likely to be dry and cold with a risk of a few isolated snow showers near exposed coasts in the N and E.

GFS Extended Control at 00z on Christmas Day     850hpa temp -6.0C

This one only looked decent due to the 850hpa temps but is very much just some chilly air between systems in a zonal flow so the least wintry looking option so far and in fact the first 2 options have more wintry potential than this one does. One for the bin in the colder options I think.

GFS Extended P26 at 00z on Christmas Day     850hpa temp -6.1C

Similar to the control run really but a slacker flow so less mixing of the air so more potential to be slightly colder even though this is also a zonal option. A slightly better chance of wintry showers but another one I would bin purely due to the wind direction and being on the most sheltered side of the country too.

GFS Extended P04 at 00z on Christmas Day     850hpa temp -6.3C

At last a bit more back on track in terms of a cold snap at least and one I would take if it was on offer even though this mostly shows cold and dry more than anything with frost. A seasonable option at least.

GFS Extended P18 at 00z on Christmas Day     850hpa temp -7.6C

A cold and dry start to Christmas Day here at least with frost. What happens after this could determine the snow potential from the next low to the west. That block to the east could prove useful in causing the next low to dive to the south into Europe and potentially setting up an easterly flow. The bad alternative is that it simply blasts through the block and turns things milder. The snow potential is there at least anyway.

GFS Extended P22 at 00z on Christmas Day     850hpa temp -8.3C

A nice cold flow here to start the big day off with the spoiler or enhancing low to the west ready to pounce to deliver the snow potential. All depends on whether it tracks to the north, ending the cold and snow potential or dives SE meaning there is a snow risk in southern and western parts. Good for them and also good for the east in terms of keeping the cold.

GFS Extended P25 at 00z on Christmas Day     850hpa temp -10.3C

This looks like a rather cold section of air that has moved in from most likely Greenland ahead of the next low to the west. Has potential to produce a Christmas Day transitional snow to rain event due to how cold the uppers are ahead of this system. Would have to hope the front occludes to get rid of the warm sector to make it more of a snow event instead with further colder air waiting in the next cold sector to the NW.

GFS Extended P23 at 00z on Christmas Day     850hpa temp -11.2C

My favourite of the Christmas Day cold charts today and the one that looks the most locked in with potential here for a cold spell rather than a cold snap. Nice decent cold uppers and a great wind direction too for eastern areas. Potential for a fair few snow showers to push in off the North Sea here. I say BANK this one and fingers crossed this ends up the Christmas Day chart for 2022.

Edited November 21, 2022 by SqueakheartLW