Winter 2022-23 : Forecasts and Discussions

[damianslaw]

59 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Autumn into winter 1984/85

 

BFTP

Perhaps the cold will come 2 weeks early this year, in Dec 84 we had to wait until the New Year.. Nov 84 was very mild..

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

1 hour ago, damianslaw said:

Perhaps the cold will come 2 weeks early this year, in Dec 84 we had to wait until the New Year.. Nov 84 was very mild..

Yes, very much like this Nov.  Interesting re timing idea D

 

BFTP

[Weather Enthusiast91]

With the exception of a few days here and there, I have a feeling that December will continue with the mild and unsettled theme often seen throughout the autumn with temps widely reaching up to the mid teens. This will mean that every month in 2022 ends up above average temperature wise. I think there will be a drastic change at some point during January though, with the first proper cold snap of the season.

Edited November 21, 2022 by Weather Enthusiast91

[sheikhy]

Gfs para looking good so far at 162 hours!op not looking too bad either!!

[sukayuonsensnow]

Quote

Based on previous years that have been similar to 2022's weather (along with continued La Niña), I think December will be close to or slightly below average temperatures, with the potential (but no guarantee) of some much colder weather for a time for northern UK. Further south both temperatures and rainfall close to the average. Any snow potential most likely in northern UK, though some wintry showers might arrive further south at times. Generally a chilly month with a higher than normal probability of frosts. Perhaps a greater than normal chance of fog or freezing fog also for a time. Chance of an interesting festive period in Scotland - and if so some notable overnight minima in the Highlands is possible. 

Very low chance of a very interesting New Year period for the UK as a whole in terms of winter weather.

January again average temperature wise, but a higher chance of some wintry spells making it further south. Any particularly cold spells will be transient. Chance of snow for a time in central and some southern parts of the UK later in the month as the Atlantic tries to make more inroads and bumps into cold air doing so - but snow amounts from this nothing out of the ordinary.

February - temperatures a little above average overall, perhaps chilly or cold early in the month. Any snow potential likely in northern parts, then milder for all with rain and some gales for a time. Perhaps drier later.

 

Overall I would say prospects for especially cold and snowy weather are decent further north, especially in Scotland where it could be an interesting winter. Further south fairly standard fare, some transient colder spells but generally no major cold spells or particularly notable snow events likely.

Precipitation, probably close to or just below average for the winter as a whole.

Temperatures will be close to average across the UK as a whole, with milder interludes in the south and especially southwest (more so second half of winter), and much colder at times further north.

Of course these are my early thoughts and could change later depending on other developments.

My early thoughts for winter that I posted in the early thoughts thread back at the end of September. 

Still sticking with it for now, it is interesting looking at the models and discussions regarding December at the moment. I still think most of the interest is further north next month, with a very low possibility of a more significant cold spell for all (this is less likely and probably towards the mid/second half of the month if at all). I suspect the first half of December will be chilly (after a mildish start) but drier, with frosty nights, fog for some, and temperatures around mid-single figures by day.

I also think now February will have above average temperatures, rather than slightly above - unless there is a SSW in January.

Edited November 22, 2022 by sukayuonsensnow

[Paul]

One to mark in the diary 

 

 

[LetItSnow!]

It would be ironic to have a cold winter after such a warm year, though the same happened in the winter of 1995/1996.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

1 minute ago, LetItSnow! said:

It would be ironic to have a cold winter after such a warm year, though the same happened in the winter of 1995/1996.

95/96 was one of best here, then 96/97

[Weather Enthusiast91]

These last few months have somewhat had a 1995 vibe about them. A hot and sunny August, followed by a much wetter autumn providing plenty of much needed rainfall, though very mild or even warm at times. Will December continue with the vibe? We shall have to wait and see.

Edited November 22, 2022 by Weather Enthusiast91

[Don]

1 hour ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

95/96 was one of best here, then 96/97

Both rubbish winters where I was!

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

18 minutes ago, Don said:

Both rubbish winters where I was!

Really?  I was home for Christmas at Swansea…95/96 was incredible…..intense cold and plenty of lying snow

 

BFTP

[Methuselah]

1 minute ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Really?  I was home for Christmas at Swansea…95/96 was incredible…..intense cold and plenty of lying snow

 

BFTP

Yep, Fred. I was cut-off for days, in Glenurquhart (-25C), for several days. It really all started on Xmas Eve; buckets of snow and gale-force northerly winds... In English, it was effing cold without power!

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

1 minute ago, Ed Stone said:

Yep, Fred. I was cut-off for days, in Glenurquhart (-25C), for several days. It really all started on Xmas Eve; buckets of snow and gale-force northerly winds... In English, it was effing cold without power!

Memorable Pete indeed.  I went up the Social club with my dad 11-30 Boxing Day.  It was cold enough.  When we came out at 3pm it had actually got colder….perishing.  We walked home quick to ‘warm ourselves’ with fine wine meats and mash!!!!

one of my favourite Xmas times ever…weather and great time

 

BFTP 

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

7 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Yep, Fred. I was cut-off for days, in Glenurquhart (-25C), for several days. It really all started on Xmas Eve; buckets of snow and gale-force northerly winds... In English, it was effing cold without power!

-25c…..incredible mate. 

 

BFTP

[Methuselah]

Just now, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

-25c…..incredible mate. 

 

BFTP

I don't ever want to feel that again, Fred: cutlery frozen together in the kitchen, frost on the inside walls, and both bogs blocked with ice was nae much fun... I'd much prefer 6' of snow at -2C than 1' at -25 any day!

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

3 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

I don't ever want to feel that again, Fred: cutlery frozen together in the kitchen, frost on the inside walls, and both bogs blocked with ice was nae much fun... I'd much prefer 6' of snow at -2C than 1' at -25 any day!

Agreed!!!

 

BFTP

[I remember Atlantic 252]

5 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

I don't ever want to feel that again, Fred: cutlery frozen together in the kitchen, frost on the inside walls, and both bogs blocked with ice was nae much fun... I'd much prefer 6' of snow at -2C than 1' at -25 any day!

Definitely prefer snowy -2 aye Edward, -25 and dry not much fun

[Methuselah]

Well, to the above two posters I'll say one thing: we could at least use hammers for getting water out of the burn!

[cheeky_monkey]

16 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

I don't ever want to feel that again, Fred: cutlery frozen together in the kitchen, frost on the inside walls, and both bogs blocked with ice was nae much fun... I'd much prefer 6' of snow at -2C than 1' at -25 any day!

welcome to my world...but its every single winter 

[Don]

1 hour ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Really?  I was home for Christmas at Swansea…95/96 was incredible…..intense cold and plenty of lying snow

 

BFTP

I was nowhere near Swansea though!  I had a fair few light snowfalls that winter, but they never amounted to more than a cm or two!!

[SqueakheartLW]

Could we be about to see a repeat of early December 1995 I wonder?

A number of the runs in the GEM and GFS suggest so with a fair number of easterly options cropping up in the last 24 hours. A couple also show northerly flows too.

Edited November 22, 2022 by SqueakheartLW

[Don]

2 minutes ago, SqueakheartLW said:

Could we be about to see a repeat of early December 1995 I wonder?

Only if I see more snow than I did then!   I doubt Shrewsbury had much snow in early December 1995, but someone do correct me if I'm wrong!  On a more serious note it wouldn't be a bad start to winter!

Edited November 22, 2022 by Don

[Norrance]

2 hours ago, Ed Stone said:

Yep, Fred. I was cut-off for days, in Glenurquhart (-25C), for several days. It really all started on Xmas Eve; buckets of snow and gale-force northerly winds... In English, it was effing cold without power!

1995. My favourite Christmas days weather while up visiting the folks in the Central Highlands. Had substantially deeper lying snow a few times at Christmas there for example in 1981, 2009 and 2010 but for weather on the day it was fantastic. On Christmas Eve some of us "youngsters " went up to the pub for a few drinks. It was cold, clear and frosty with a couple of inches of powdery snow on the ground. Later in the evening patrons entering the pub could be seen shaking snow out of their hair and clothes. On leaving to go home there was light to moderate snow falling but also a strengthening Northerly wind was blowing the lying snow about. Next morning looking out you couldn't see across the street for blowing snow. At around noon abruptly it stopped, the wind died and the sun came out. However the temperature also dropped quickly from around -3C to -10C by nightfall beginning a week of very low temperatures. The snow was so powdery it was impossible to make even a snowball, never mind a snowman so the kids were disappointed. It was impossible to measure a depth of snow as some bits including the road outside which ran North to South were completely clear where in other bits shelteredfrom the North wind it drifted up over the walls. 
The downside came later when the pipes burst!

edit. My bad. Just remembered that this is the Winter forecast thread so sorry for wandering further off topic. My forecast/hopecast is therefor for a diluted repeat of 1995. A cool start to the month with high pressure building and an Easterly drift hitting the East/South. Becoming milder for a time then cold returning from the North East with a chance of snow for many towards the end of the month. No idea what will happen after New Year.

Edited November 22, 2022 by Norrance

[Catacol]

Things are shaping up better than I expected back in October when I felt a bit of a mild Nina wash out might be on the cards. What we have seen instead is a Nino-style atmosphere providing momentum boosts to the pattern, and while this means the early season Atlantic Nina ridge is a bit elusive in the forecasts we have something tastier becoming possible.

Others have noted the Nov 2009 feel to things. A very stubborn block has emerged over Russia - models keep playing around with seeing it collapse or retrogress but to my eye there is a trend for it to camp over Kara. This will mean the wet November continues for now as Atlantic systems stall. I’m not 100% sold yet on the idea of a cold anticyclonic U.K. in early December. It may quite possibly land and I would celebrate some sharp, frosty weather but if it gets pushed back I wouldn’t blink in surprise.

What may be building though is a period of significant interest in the middle or maybe last third of December. It looks as though the MJO will be in or around phase 7 come mid month and if the Nino atmospheric signal holds with its characteristic high GWO orbit - and it seems to be holding - then this would open the door for fresh height rises to the north or perhaps more tantalisingly a link up between that stubborn Kara block and ridging northward of the Azores. Fred mentioned it earlier - I don’t fully buy into his forecasting methods - but on this particular outcome I think there is a definite chance of it coming to pass even if we take different routes in getting there.

Additionally the Kara high is one half of the much mentioned wave 2 pinch pattern that can give the stratosphere a hard time. As things stand we have a pacific pattern that has not seen a ridge embed fully over Alaska and we are seeing a decent amount of depression activity in and around the Aleutians. It isn’t modelled so far to be of Jan 2018 proportions but it is there - and I think we have some upcoming synergy between passage of the MJO and lag impacts of our current Kara block combined with periodic spells of the Aleutian Low.

It is a bit early yet to get the bunting out - and we have been sucked into excitement mode before and been disappointed - but the opportunity for a cold end of December is certainly there and if the vortex also comes under pressure as northern blocking emerges then January also looks interesting. Could it go “wrong”? Of course it could. Nina could begin to grip the atmosphere, momentum could dive and the Atlantic win out through January. Strengthening vortex.

However where things are NOW and where teleconnections LOOK to be heading, a flat Atlantic wash out looks longer odds than a blocked pattern with some evolving potential. We were a bit unlucky in 2020/21 when interest emerged in late Dec and on into the first part of January. Let’s roll a different dice this time….

[Premiere Neige]

Brian Gaze of TWO has done a video summary on YouTube today for the next 2 weeks based on today's model output: