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Winter 2022-23 : Forecasts and Discussions


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Posted
  • Location: Coatbridge, Scotland 129 m
  • Weather Preferences: snow in winter,warm sun in summer!!!!
  • Location: Coatbridge, Scotland 129 m

Latest Meto update isn't as good , anyone any thoughts ?

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Posted
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos
1 hour ago, johncam said:

Latest Meto update isn't as good , anyone any thoughts ?

Agreed.

December, up til the 3rd week, looks like a continuation of Autumn, according to their forecast. 

Nowt to get excited about.

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
17 minutes ago, Bristle Si said:

Agreed.

December, up til the 3rd week, looks like a continuation of Autumn, according to their forecast. 

Nowt to get excited about.

Met Office forecasts can change significantly day to day, they drop the words cold and snow like a hat, but equally bring them back. I think they are staying cautious quite rightly, probably not too worry people unnecessarily, but if the trends of the models begin to creep into semi reliable watch the forecasts firm up on colder weather. We are at a bit of a pivotal point, where there is still uncertainty and room for things to swing more favour of mild or average still despite the colder theme increasingly bedding in to the longer term outlook.

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Posted
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos
7 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Met Office forecasts can change significantly day to day, they drop the words cold and snow like a hat, but equally bring them back. I think they are staying cautious quite rightly, probably not too worry people unnecessarily, but if the trends of the models begin to creep into semi reliable watch the forecasts firm up on colder weather. We are at a bit of a pivotal point, where there is still uncertainty and room for things to swing more favour of mild or average still despite the colder theme increasingly bedding in to the longer term outlook.

Well, here's the 8th to 22nd Dec wording:

Confidence remains low for this period. Conditions are expected to be more settled than of late, with the potential for high pressure to be located close to the UK, at least at first. With time, however, we may see a return to frontal systems moving in from the west, with drier interludes between. Whilst temperatures may average out close to normal overall, colder conditions are possible at times, with a risk of overnight frost and fog.

Basically, bulk standard average December weather.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
4 minutes ago, Bristle Si said:

Well, here's the 8th to 22nd Dec wording:

Confidence remains low for this period. Conditions are expected to be more settled than of late, with the potential for high pressure to be located close to the UK, at least at first. With time, however, we may see a return to frontal systems moving in from the west, with drier interludes between. Whilst temperatures may average out close to normal overall, colder conditions are possible at times, with a risk of overnight frost and fog.

Basically, bulk standard average December weather.

 

Caveated with the wording 'confidence remains low' which gives large leeway for further changes... and the word 'may' is very different to 'will' - again allows for changes.

Edited by damianslaw
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Posted
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos

In fact, i'm being very unfair on Scotland and Northern England& N Wales -

it isnt "bulk standard average December weather" for The North. They'd be expecting a number of snowy days in December, albeit mainly bouts of snow showers and that type is nowhere to be seen in the Meto forecast.

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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
57 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Mmm I'm getting Dec 09 vibes...

The problem is though a few days ago things were looking like possibly shaping up similar to December 1995, but now more like December 2009, with colder weather continued to be pushed back?  However, it's all still to play for of course!

Edited by Don
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Posted
  • Location: Scunthorpe
  • Location: Scunthorpe

Which of these 3 charts from today's GFS Extended run would you like to bank for Christmas Day?

1 - GFS Extended P07          The cold and dry option          2m temp min -4.2C  max -1.5C

Could contain: Plot, Chart, Map, NeighborhoodCould contain: Plot, Chart, Outdoors, Face, Person, Head, Nature, Modern Art, Art, Map

 

2 - GFS Extended P08     The Arctic Blast option          2m temp min -0.5C  max 1.9C

Could contain: Plot, Chart, Map, Outdoors, Nature, DiagramCould contain: Modern Art, Art, Outdoors, Nature

 

3 - GFS Extended P20     The Beasterly option          2m temp min -1.1C  max 0.2C

Could contain: Plot, Chart, MapCould contain: Plot, Chart, Outdoors, Map, Nature

 

Personally at this range I'd settle for any of these just to get a cold seasonable Christmas Day but for snow chances in my location I'd take the beasterly option.

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Posted
  • Location: Aviemore
  • Location: Aviemore
10 minutes ago, Don said:

It was a few minutes late, naughty Netweather!! 🤪

The bizarre thing is that I wrote the post an hour earlier and scheduled it to post at 7pm. Guess the server's watch is a bit slow!

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Posted
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos
9 minutes ago, A Brownbill said:

Could contain: Plot, Chart, Map, Atlas, Diagram, PersonGFS 12Z: Min and Max temps for Friday 9th Dec 12pm - Cold in the South

16 days away; i wouldnt bet on it😉

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
1 hour ago, Don said:

The problem is though a few days ago things were looking like possibly shaping up similar to December 1995, but now more like December 2009, with colder weather continued to be pushed back?  However, it's all still to play for of course!

The models are much more early Dec 95 than Dec 09, early Dec 09 started mild and atlantic driven, I was more referencing how November panned out in 2009 with strong heights to the NE and the atlantic trough making a beeline for the UK, coming unstuck, giving lots of rain and persistant mild conditions by and large.

Early Dec 95 brought an easterly by the 5th and the weather stayed cold for much of the month with a bit of a tug between colder arctic air and milder tropical maritime air in the lead up to christmas, the former gained the upper hand by christmas itself.

For snow cold lovers, a combination of first half of 95 followed by second half of 09 would be there dream I guess! or perhaps even better 1-15 Dec 95, followed by 16-24 Dec 09 followed by 25-31 Dec 95! Just being greedy!

Back to the net weather forecast, lots of factors at play that seem to contradict likely outcomes, seems a fine line winter, with an opportunity for something notably colder for Dec and Jan - certainly chances of a cold Dec and Jan higher than many years I feel.  As someone who likes cold snowy second half of Dec, boy we've been short changed recently! (last one was 2009, 2010 fizzled out 28th), I'd gladly wait the colder conditions to arrive a bit later in Dec if it means we don't see a switch in the run up to christmas- as possibly hinted at in the net weather forecast, nothing worse than seeing a thaw in the days ahead of christmas, staring at a wet windy mild one - as has been the case since 2010!

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester
56 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

For snow cold lovers, a combination of first half of 95 followed by second half of 09 would be there dream I guess! or perhaps even better 1-15 Dec 95, followed by 16-24 Dec 09 followed by 25-31 Dec 95! Just being greedy!

 

Or even better (or worse), 1-25 Dec 2010 followed by 26-31 Dec 1995 

Final week to Dec 2020 had a CET of 2.1C, which I think is the coldest since 2010. Not often we see cold latter parts of December

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Posted
  • Location: Walsall, West Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal, but not too hot in summer.
  • Location: Walsall, West Midlands

I'm calling it now, based on little more than having lived in this country all my life: there will be no significant cold weather this winter, any settled/easterly spells will flatter to deceive, and boths temps and rainfall will end up above average.

You read it here first.

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Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam
10 hours ago, Frigid said:

Or even better (or worse), 1-25 Dec 2010 followed by 26-31 Dec 1995 

Final week to Dec 2020 had a CET of 2.1C, which I think is the coldest since 2010. Not often we see cold latter parts of December

1st-18th December 2010 

19th-25th December 2009. the snowiest run up to Christmas that I have experienced

26th-29th December 1995 

30th-31st December 1996

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Posted
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside
  • Weather Preferences: Snow & Thunderstorms
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside
15 hours ago, damianslaw said:

Met Office forecasts can change significantly day to day, they drop the words cold and snow like a hat, but equally bring them back. I think they are staying cautious quite rightly, probably not too worry people unnecessarily, but if the trends of the models begin to creep into semi reliable watch the forecasts firm up on colder weather. We are at a bit of a pivotal point, where there is still uncertainty and room for things to swing more favour of mild or average still despite the colder theme increasingly bedding in to the longer term outlook.

Agree, I don't know why people get so hung up on them. Like you say they chop and change on such a regular occurrence that I think we've had all weather types mentioned in the last few weeks alone.

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Posted
  • Location: Coatbridge, Scotland 129 m
  • Weather Preferences: snow in winter,warm sun in summer!!!!
  • Location: Coatbridge, Scotland 129 m
2 hours ago, Day 10 said:

Agree, I don't know why people get so hung up on them. Like you say they chop and change on such a regular occurrence that I think we've had all weather types mentioned in the last few weeks alone.

The problem is its always a downgrade on anything cold or snowy 

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Posted
  • Location: London
  • Location: London
On 21/11/2022 at 20:52, damianslaw said:

Perhaps the cold will come 2 weeks early this year, in Dec 84 we had to wait until the New Year.. Nov 84 was very mild..

What was Christmas 1984 like?

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Posted
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine and 15-25c
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
42 minutes ago, Sunny76 said:

What was Christmas 1984 like?

Xmas 84 the run up and day itself were mild..it turned colder Boxing day and where i was there was some snow showers Xmas night into boxing day...turned much colder on news years day ..there after followed the cold snowy January 85

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