Winter 2022-23 : Forecasts and Discussions

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

You'll NEVER get the Met being bullish about any cold weather until its at the very short ranges, but I take a lot of positives from this

• Agreement on the dominant blocking that we see emerging in the models at the mo 
• I find it interesting they even mention the winter of 2009/10, obviously there's some scope things could develop in a similar style 
• And obviously they've got a close watch for any SSW and effects should that happen 

Official blog of the Met Office news team

BLOG.METOFFICE.GOV.UK

"While there are indications in the long-range forecast that we could see some mild weather this winter, we are expecting a colder start. Our medium-range models are starting to indicate that high pressure will begin to dominate our region in December, increasing the potential for cold spells, although we could still see wet and windy weather at times as well as later in the winter (check our 30-day forecast).

Exact weather conditions will be dictated by just where the high pressure settles over the Atlantic and the UK. While this type of outlook cannot identify day-to-day weather there is relatively good agreement that weather patterns in December will become more settled than we have seen in November. High pressure prevents mild, moist air from flowing to the UK from the Atlantic Ocean increasing the potential for lower temperatures, with some threat of snow and ice mainly in northern areas and a reduction in the chance of early winter storms compared to normal.

Predicted pressure anomaly (difference from normal) for December 2022 in hectoPascals (hPa)

As we head further through the winter the picture changes and current forecasts suggest that the risk of high pressure decreases in February, allowing more unsettled conditions to develop, with wet, windy, and mild spells more likely. This means that the chances of a very cold winter, comparable to 2009/10, are still low this winter. Nevertheless, although it is not predicted in the near future, there is still a risk of a Sudden Stratospheric Warming occurring later this winter. If this happens, it could increase the risk of wintry weather and could lead to a further cold spell for the UK and northern Europe"

[Rayth]

I think most cold weather lovers would take a 09/10 ‘’lite’ given half a chance !!!

 

thanks for sharing @Kirkcaldy Weather , intriguing blog 

 

 

[Don]

13 hours ago, Sceptical said:

Put me down for my usual punt.

Temperatures at, or slightly above average. Any snow will mostly be confined to the Scottish mountains.

And the Shropshire Hills, come on?!! 

[John88B]

Ian Fergusson on our local weather forecast just mentioned the risk of something colder through December. 

[Bristawl Si]

3 minutes ago, John88B said:

Ian Fergusson on our local weather forecast just mentioned the risk of something colder through December. 

The thing is John "something colder" for 'us', locally, is 7c (from 10-12c lately).

Edited November 24, 2022 by Bristle Si

[John88B]

1 minute ago, Bristle Si said:

The thing is John "something colder" for 'us' is 7c (from 10-12c lately).

This is unfortunately very true but who knows, maybe this year a proper cold one.

[damianslaw]

4 hours ago, cheeky_monkey said:

Xmas 84 the run up and day itself were mild..it turned colder Boxing day and where i was there was some snow showers Xmas night into boxing day...turned much colder on news years day ..there after followed the cold snowy January 85

Yes Christmas Day itself was quite average, but it turned colder Boxing Day, I think we had a decent snowfall late on, the rest of the month was quite cold, but the main cold arrived on the 2 January. It was quite similiar to 1985 in many respects, cold weather arrived Boxing Day but not quite as cold. We've had quite a few instances of cold arriving just after christmas Day, rather than the immediate run up to christmas, 2008 and 2020 good examples, 2000 also, 1984, 1985, 2001, 2005 as well. 

A curious anomaly is the often very mild period we endure 20-25 Dec... very annoying! Not had a cold such period since 2010, indeed the last 11 years has brought mild or very mild weather generally.

[SqueakheartLW]

How about this one for 10th December 2022 from the 12z GFS

P30

That is quite a potent northerly for this point in December. Shame it's a massive outlier.

Hope this one is a trend setter

[Don]

1 hour ago, Bristle Si said:

The thing is John "something colder" for 'us', locally, is 7c (from 10-12c lately).

You would think though, "something colder" perhaps hints at below average temperatures, albeit not necessarily exceptional?

[Cheshire Freeze]

CFS increasingly bringing in +ve anomalies across the pole in January. My guess there's some SSW ensembles in there

[Bristawl Si]

8 minutes ago, Don said:

You would think though, "something colder" perhaps hints at below average temperatures, albeit not necessarily exceptional?

I wouldnt think that, necessarily, but i've no doubt that others will.

[Don]

7 minutes ago, Bristle Si said:

I wouldnt think that, necessarily, but i've no doubt that others will.

I personally thinks it hints at something below average, but like I said not necessarily exceptionally so i.e. a beast.

[The PIT]

I was reading about the effect Tonga eruption is going to have. So after saying it would have no effect it seems that they hadn't taken the amount of water vapour dumped into the atmosphere.  It seems nobody is quiet sure what effect is going ton have at the surface so we could be entering into unknown waters. Any bizarre weather caused by Tonga will probably get lost in the noise of climate change so this winter could more interesting than normal. https://www.nasa.gov/feature/jpl/tonga-eruption-blasted-unprecedented-amount-of-water-into-stratosphere and

Just a moment...

AGUPUBS.ONLINELIBRARY.WILEY.COM

another article

A significant cooling event continues in the Stratosphere due to the large Water Vapor cloud, but can it impact the upcoming Winter Season? » Severe Weather Europe

WWW.SEVERE-WEATHER.EU

---

The strong cooling event continues in the southern stratosphere, potentially influencing the Winter 2022/2023 seasonal weather patterns

 

Edited November 25, 2022 by The PIT

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

23 hours ago, CreweCold said:

CFS increasingly bringing in +ve anomalies across the pole in January. My guess there's some SSW ensembles in there

That would follow my 84/5 thoughts.

 

BFTP

[Dennis]

Hi everyone 

First i hope you all will have a good weekend .

I am a Polar Vortex researcher

I check data of the stratosphere and make my thoughts to the winter to that - and alot was  happening and is proceeding.

[Dennis]

Will the UK get cold weather ? YES it wil be seen

A pattern change is ahead to winter days

Edited November 25, 2022 by Dennis

[Dennis]

this is huge - a complete attack in stratolvls

 

 

[summer blizzard]

Interesting question for us all in the face of upcoming modelling.

Would you prefer to keep blocking over Scandinavia with uppers just cold enough to ensure falling and settling snow.

Would you prefer retrogression to Greenland with a more northerly flow if you knew it would deliver proper cold uppers and chill your bones.

[Penrith Snow]

6 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

Interesting question for us all in the face of upcoming modelling.

Would you prefer to keep blocking over Scandinavia with uppers just cold enough to ensure falling and settling snow.

Would you prefer retrogression to Greenland with a more northerly flow if you knew it would deliver proper cold uppers and chill your bones.

After 12 months of mild crud either would be a dream!

[syed2878]

Hi folks another day of ups and downs here but i'm sure we will all be reworded this winter. now here is an interesting winter forecast for europ from this guy i don't how good this guy is but before the 18z i thought i'l shaire this with you folks. mods please remove if it's in the wrong thread.  

 

[cheeky_monkey]

11 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

Interesting question for us all in the face of upcoming modelling.

Would you prefer to keep blocking over Scandinavia with uppers just cold enough to ensure falling and settling snow.

Would you prefer retrogression to Greenland with a more northerly flow if you knew it would deliver proper cold uppers and chill your bones.

if i was in the UK i would go with the Scandinavian high as they tend to be more long lasting and have tendency to reoccur during a winter season 

[Don]

20 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

Interesting question for us all in the face of upcoming modelling.

Would you prefer to keep blocking over Scandinavia with uppers just cold enough to ensure falling and settling snow.

Would you prefer retrogression to Greenland with a more northerly flow if you knew it would deliver proper cold uppers and chill your bones.

After last winter, I would me more than happy with either, although the later would possibly be better for my location regarding snow perhaps?

Edited November 25, 2022 by Don

[Dennis]

Goodmorning all

 

The EC NAO forecast  - what a dive for december 

[Catacol]

15 hours ago, summer blizzard said:

Interesting question for us all in the face of upcoming modelling.

Would you prefer to keep blocking over Scandinavia with uppers just cold enough to ensure falling and settling snow.

Would you prefer retrogression to Greenland with a more northerly flow if you knew it would deliver proper cold uppers and chill your bones.

A very good question. I am always chasing the pot of gold - and so at this point of the season I would prefer to see the high stick to our NE rather than retrogress into Griceland. That might well mean a less cold start... but I would prefer to see the foundations of strat vortex disruption laid strongly and for that to occur the longer heights remain positive over Kara the better things are. The modelling at the moment is rather confused - positive GWO suggesting ongoing amplification though in the short term the MJO is heading for COD and speed/amplitude of predicted recovery quite quickly into 7/8 territory is unclear. Some good wave 2 precursors I think have been laid which might bring lagged benefits in a few weeks, but again it is an unknown quantity in terms of actual impact. In the short/medium term we have some encouraging weakening of the TPV with some splitting but modelling brings some coherence back though high lat blocking in some shape or form will prevent (I think) any substantial acceleration. Meanwhile we have a strong ridge establishing over the aleutians - not a feature we are generally in favour of - and that ongoing tendency for pressure over SE Europe to remain higher than we like or perhaps the models get a grip of.

So - much still to evolve despite some recent frenzy on the Mod thread....but we have some positive indicators and a sense that blocking is the conversation in town. And to go back to that question - the longer it holds to our NE the better I think.

My optimistic side is sticking to the idea that the last third of December might see winter arrive but I want to see the GWO retain a highish orbit, the MJO recover and the short term impacts of high lat blocking remain long enough to take the sting out of any potential attempts of the lower strat to fire up and couple. Out into the further reaches of vision we will obviously be hunting for SSW potential, something that Met Office blog states clearly. No point even glancing at the second half of winter until we see how the strat is looking in 4 weeks time.

[Dennis]

SPV forecast - weather will change