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Winter 2022-23 : Forecasts and Discussions


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Posted
  • Location: Scunthorpe
  • Location: Scunthorpe

Mild Novembers vs following winter

As it appears November 2022 is going to definitely end up milder than average provisionally and certainly with the final CET mean figures I thought I would do a bit of research on this one and see how winters panned out following mild Novembers in the past.

I have used all Novembers from 1870 to 2021 so I can include ENSO status within them too and the criteria for a mild November is a CET anomaly of at least +1C above the relevant year's climatological mean.

Using this I ended up with the following 33 years between 1870 and 2022

Could contain: Scoreboard, Text, Computer Hardware, Hardware, Electronics, Screen, Monitor

As you can see all years have November CET anomalies of at least +1C above the 30 year mean mentioned just to the right of these. The individual monthly winter CET's and anomalies are in the middle section with the section on the right containing the CET monthly means for those 30 year means. The far right is the ENSO status for that period between the November and March period.

All mild Novembers vs following winters

First I simply averaged out all of the anomalies for each month as well as all anomalies to get the overall December to March anomaly and put these next to the most recent 1991-2020 mean and came up with a projected monthly CET figure based on these. The result is below.

Could contain: Plot, Chart

Using all these years it looks quite promising if you are after a colder than average winter, particularly later on in the winter.

December is slightly above average but not by much and in fact comes in as green for basically average with a projected CET mean of 5.14C so still potential for colder weather mixed in with milder cancelling each other out.

January is where the interest for cold begins to increase as we head below average with the anomaly by a small amount, enough to take the mean projected CET slightly below average at 4.36C. Not too bad and based on the results the cold is more likely later in the month than earlier.

February is the most interesting from a colder perspective with a more solidly below average mean predicted with a colder than average anomaly giving a projected mean CET of 4.18C.

March sees a recovery back to close to average again at 6.60C but this is still slightly on the colder side of average.

Overall a signal for a slightly colder than average December to March period at 5.07C with the most cold potential in February.

All mild Novembers in La Nina or ENSO Neutral years vs following winters

This is where things get much more relevant to this year as we currently are in La Nina conditions and these are predicted to move back to ENSO Neutral during the winter so I have included the ENSO Neutral years with the La Nina ones. A reduced total of 18 years were left. These years are below.

Could contain: Scoreboard, Text, Computer Keyboard, Computer Hardware, Hardware, Electronics, Computer

Now we will see how removing all the El Nino years changes the overall results.

Could contain: Chart

If the initial all mild Novembers vs following winters looked good for cold prospects then this one looks even better as now all months come out colder than average, even the Decembers.

Decembers now come out with an anomaly of -0.21C compared with the +0.17C from before which adjusts the projected December CET down from 5.14C to 4.76C and now looks a bit more promising for colder potential.

Januaries are now more solidly colder than average with a new anomaly of -0.69C compared with the -0.30C from before which adjusts the projected January CET down from 4.36C to 3.97C, bring it on.

Februaries look even better than before and a definite bet for a good cold month with a new anomaly of -1.26C compared with the -0.71C from before which adjusts the projected February CET down from 4.18C to 3.63C and makes it the coldest of the 3 main winter months.

Marchs have also adjusted colder but only very slightly and still come out basically average with a new anomaly of -0.17C compared with the -0.14C from before. This only changes the projected March CET down from 6.60C to 6.57C.

Overall for the December to March period we see a new anomaly of -0.58C compared with the -0.25C from before taking the overall period CET down from 5.07C to 4.74C.

Conclusions

Overall it would seem that having a mild November is a good signal for a colder winter to come and heavily favours a back loaded winter. Also it would seem if this happens in a year that isn't an EL Nino the prospects are even better. It would seem using this measure for 2022 looks very promising for cold for winter 2022/23, what could possibly go wrong ........... ???

Well everything probably knowing the weather in the UK but we can hold onto hope that this mild November vs cold winter to come theory holds true. Watch this space in February in particular.

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Posted
  • Location: NE Hampshire, England, United Kingdom
  • Weather Preferences: snow, cold, ice, frost, thundersnow,
  • Location: NE Hampshire, England, United Kingdom
3 hours ago, SqueakheartLW said:

Mild Novembers vs following winter

As it appears November 2022 is going to definitely end up milder than average provisionally and certainly with the final CET mean figures I thought I would do a bit of research on this one and see how winters panned out following mild Novembers in the past.

I have used all Novembers from 1870 to 2021 so I can include ENSO status within them too and the criteria for a mild November is a CET anomaly of at least +1C above the relevant year's climatological mean.

Using this I ended up with the following 33 years between 1870 and 2022

Could contain: Scoreboard, Text, Computer Hardware, Hardware, Electronics, Screen, Monitor

As you can see all years have November CET anomalies of at least +1C above the 30 year mean mentioned just to the right of these. The individual monthly winter CET's and anomalies are in the middle section with the section on the right containing the CET monthly means for those 30 year means. The far right is the ENSO status for that period between the November and March period.

All mild Novembers vs following winters

First I simply averaged out all of the anomalies for each month as well as all anomalies to get the overall December to March anomaly and put these next to the most recent 1991-2020 mean and came up with a projected monthly CET figure based on these. The result is below.

Could contain: Plot, Chart

Using all these years it looks quite promising if you are after a colder than average winter, particularly later on in the winter.

December is slightly above average but not by much and in fact comes in as green for basically average with a projected CET mean of 5.14C so still potential for colder weather mixed in with milder cancelling each other out.

January is where the interest for cold begins to increase as we head below average with the anomaly by a small amount, enough to take the mean projected CET slightly below average at 4.36C. Not too bad and based on the results the cold is more likely later in the month than earlier.

February is the most interesting from a colder perspective with a more solidly below average mean predicted with a colder than average anomaly giving a projected mean CET of 4.18C.

March sees a recovery back to close to average again at 6.60C but this is still slightly on the colder side of average.

Overall a signal for a slightly colder than average December to March period at 5.07C with the most cold potential in February.

All mild Novembers in La Nina or ENSO Neutral years vs following winters

This is where things get much more relevant to this year as we currently are in La Nina conditions and these are predicted to move back to ENSO Neutral during the winter so I have included the ENSO Neutral years with the La Nina ones. A reduced total of 18 years were left. These years are below.

Could contain: Scoreboard, Text, Computer Keyboard, Computer Hardware, Hardware, Electronics, Computer

Now we will see how removing all the El Nino years changes the overall results.

Could contain: Chart

If the initial all mild Novembers vs following winters looked good for cold prospects then this one looks even better as now all months come out colder than average, even the Decembers.

Decembers now come out with an anomaly of -0.21C compared with the +0.17C from before which adjusts the projected December CET down from 5.14C to 4.76C and now looks a bit more promising for colder potential.

Januaries are now more solidly colder than average with a new anomaly of -0.69C compared with the -0.30C from before which adjusts the projected January CET down from 4.36C to 3.97C, bring it on.

Februaries look even better than before and a definite bet for a good cold month with a new anomaly of -1.26C compared with the -0.71C from before which adjusts the projected February CET down from 4.18C to 3.63C and makes it the coldest of the 3 main winter months.

Marchs have also adjusted colder but only very slightly and still come out basically average with a new anomaly of -0.17C compared with the -0.14C from before. This only changes the projected March CET down from 6.60C to 6.57C.

Overall for the December to March period we see a new anomaly of -0.58C compared with the -0.25C from before taking the overall period CET down from 5.07C to 4.74C.

Conclusions

Overall it would seem that having a mild November is a good signal for a colder winter to come and heavily favours a back loaded winter. Also it would seem if this happens in a year that isn't an EL Nino the prospects are even better. It would seem using this measure for 2022 looks very promising for cold for winter 2022/23, what could possibly go wrong ........... ???

Well everything probably knowing the weather in the UK but we can hold onto hope that this mild November vs cold winter to come theory holds true. Watch this space in February in particular.

It is interesting although a number of prolific weather forecasters are going for a mild February, and the wetter month of the three. 

Unless a SSW comes into play.

January will probably have the better winter prospects of the three winter months (Dec, Jan, Feb). 

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Posted
  • Location: London
  • Location: London
On 24/11/2022 at 19:25, damianslaw said:

Yes Christmas Day itself was quite average, but it turned colder Boxing Day, I think we had a decent snowfall late on, the rest of the month was quite cold, but the main cold arrived on the 2 January. It was quite similiar to 1985 in many respects, cold weather arrived Boxing Day but not quite as cold. We've had quite a few instances of cold arriving just after christmas Day, rather than the immediate run up to christmas, 2008 and 2020 good examples, 2000 also, 1984, 1985, 2001, 2005 as well. 

A curious anomaly is the often very mild period we endure 20-25 Dec... very annoying! Not had a cold such period since 2010, indeed the last 11 years has brought mild or very mild weather generally.

2020 was cold on Christmas Eve and Christmas Day where I was.

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Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
1 hour ago, Sunny76 said:

2020 was cold on Christmas Eve and Christmas Day where I was.

Yes chilly widely 2-4C maxes unusually northern Scotland was warmest at 8C.

Could contain: Land, Nature, Outdoors, Sea, Water, Shoreline, Coast, Rainforest, Vegetation, Peninsula

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Going to be interesting too see if the Tonga eruption does have an effect with some going for a negative noa. Going much much further ahead scientists reckon it could warm the climate for the next five years so the next few summers could also be record breaking at times as well.

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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
1 hour ago, The PIT said:

Going to be interesting too see if the Tonga eruption does have an effect with some going for a negative noa. Going much much further ahead scientists reckon it could warm the climate for the next five years so the next few summers could also be record breaking at times as well.

Just what we need!! 😱

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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
20 hours ago, The PIT said:

Going to be interesting too see if the Tonga eruption does have an effect with some going for a negative noa. Going much much further ahead scientists reckon it could warm the climate for the next five years so the next few summers could also be record breaking at times as well.

Volcanic eruption warming the climate, that's a new one to me

 

BFTP

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
1 hour ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Volcanic eruption warming the climate, that's a new one to me

 

BFTP

It put out a lot of water vapour and not much Sulphur Dioxide. Water Vapour is a greenhouse gas.

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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
4 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

It put out a lot of water vapour and not much Sulphur Dioxide. Water Vapour is a greenhouse gas.

True, the most powerful Greenhouse gas.  However, it appears its cooled the SH.

BFTP

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Posted
  • Location: NW Wales/Snowdonia 1002ft ASL
  • Location: NW Wales/Snowdonia 1002ft ASL
1 hour ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

True, the most powerful Greenhouse gas.  However, it appears its cooled the SH.

BFTP

Also need to take into account lag. I’m interested in wether the huge, months long eruption of Cumbre Vieja last year will have any effect on this winter. Or did it have a hand in the record breaking heat this summer. 

Edited by andy989
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Posted
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside
  • Weather Preferences: Snow & Thunderstorms
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside

Seems interesting that the last major eruption was 2010, Greenland high followed. This year major eruption, Greenland high looking likely.

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Posted
  • Location: NW Wales/Snowdonia 1002ft ASL
  • Location: NW Wales/Snowdonia 1002ft ASL
24 minutes ago, Day 10 said:

Seems interesting that the last major eruption was 2010, Greenland high followed. This year major eruption, Greenland high looking likely.

I remember that eruption. I remember thinking how odd it was to see no planes in the skies. 

Here is the ash spread from that eruption.Could contain: Sphere, Outer Space, Astronomy, Globe, Planet, Person

Here’s Cumbre Vieja Last year. 

Could contain: Plot, Chart, Person, Outdoors, Map, Nature

and here’s Tonga

Could contain: Planet, Outer Space, Astronomy, Globe, Helmet

 

Tonga happened right after Cumbre Vieja, but Cumbre obviously much closer to us. 

Edited by andy989
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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

Looks like we will start winter 22/23 in a very different state to most since at least 12/13, probably more so 10/11 - not to say we will endure the same depth as cold as happened in 10/11, but we have an interesting start at least.

December does look like being colder than average at least, how cold who knows. The last time we had a cold December from start to finish was 2010, 2012, 2017 and 2020 the last 3 Decembers to bring any notable cold, were episodic, cold did not hold sway throughout. 

Often think christmas is the pivotal point in the winter, tends to be the point in which the northern hemisphere settles into its winter base state, interesting all three months mentioned did bring some renewed colder weather at or just after christmas, 2017 very briefly mind.. and the following winters continued with the epsiodic cold and milder periods.. last year everything played out terrible for longer term cold prospects, with the super mild southerly for New Year, an omen for 2022 as a whole! 

I'll give some general thoughts on Wednesday - but I do feel this winter will be quite different as a whole to most since 12/13, and there will be a tug between continental cold air and milder atlantic air throughout.

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
3 hours ago, Day 10 said:

Seems interesting that the last major eruption was 2010, Greenland high followed. This year major eruption, Greenland high looking likely.

The Icelandic eruption was only VEI4, theres no reason to think it produced a significant climatic impact.

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On 26/11/2022 at 21:18, SqueakheartLW said:

Mild Novembers vs following winter

As it appears November 2022 is going to definitely end up milder than average provisionally and certainly with the final CET mean figures I thought I would do a bit of research on this one and see how winters panned out following mild Novembers in the past.

I have used all Novembers from 1870 to 2021 so I can include ENSO status within them too and the criteria for a mild November is a CET anomaly of at least +1C above the relevant year's climatological mean.

Using this I ended up with the following 33 years between 1870 and 2022

Could contain: Scoreboard, Text, Computer Hardware, Hardware, Electronics, Screen, Monitor

As you can see all years have November CET anomalies of at least +1C above the 30 year mean mentioned just to the right of these. The individual monthly winter CET's and anomalies are in the middle section with the section on the right containing the CET monthly means for those 30 year means. The far right is the ENSO status for that period between the November and March period.

All mild Novembers vs following winters

First I simply averaged out all of the anomalies for each month as well as all anomalies to get the overall December to March anomaly and put these next to the most recent 1991-2020 mean and came up with a projected monthly CET figure based on these. The result is below.

Could contain: Plot, Chart

Using all these years it looks quite promising if you are after a colder than average winter, particularly later on in the winter.

December is slightly above average but not by much and in fact comes in as green for basically average with a projected CET mean of 5.14C so still potential for colder weather mixed in with milder cancelling each other out.

January is where the interest for cold begins to increase as we head below average with the anomaly by a small amount, enough to take the mean projected CET slightly below average at 4.36C. Not too bad and based on the results the cold is more likely later in the month than earlier.

February is the most interesting from a colder perspective with a more solidly below average mean predicted with a colder than average anomaly giving a projected mean CET of 4.18C.

March sees a recovery back to close to average again at 6.60C but this is still slightly on the colder side of average.

Overall a signal for a slightly colder than average December to March period at 5.07C with the most cold potential in February.

All mild Novembers in La Nina or ENSO Neutral years vs following winters

This is where things get much more relevant to this year as we currently are in La Nina conditions and these are predicted to move back to ENSO Neutral during the winter so I have included the ENSO Neutral years with the La Nina ones. A reduced total of 18 years were left. These years are below.

Could contain: Scoreboard, Text, Computer Keyboard, Computer Hardware, Hardware, Electronics, Computer

Now we will see how removing all the El Nino years changes the overall results.

Could contain: Chart

If the initial all mild Novembers vs following winters looked good for cold prospects then this one looks even better as now all months come out colder than average, even the Decembers.

Decembers now come out with an anomaly of -0.21C compared with the +0.17C from before which adjusts the projected December CET down from 5.14C to 4.76C and now looks a bit more promising for colder potential.

Januaries are now more solidly colder than average with a new anomaly of -0.69C compared with the -0.30C from before which adjusts the projected January CET down from 4.36C to 3.97C, bring it on.

Februaries look even better than before and a definite bet for a good cold month with a new anomaly of -1.26C compared with the -0.71C from before which adjusts the projected February CET down from 4.18C to 3.63C and makes it the coldest of the 3 main winter months.

Marchs have also adjusted colder but only very slightly and still come out basically average with a new anomaly of -0.17C compared with the -0.14C from before. This only changes the projected March CET down from 6.60C to 6.57C.

Overall for the December to March period we see a new anomaly of -0.58C compared with the -0.25C from before taking the overall period CET down from 5.07C to 4.74C.

Conclusions

Overall it would seem that having a mild November is a good signal for a colder winter to come and heavily favours a back loaded winter. Also it would seem if this happens in a year that isn't an EL Nino the prospects are even better. It would seem using this measure for 2022 looks very promising for cold for winter 2022/23, what could possibly go wrong ........... ???

Well everything probably knowing the weather in the UK but we can hold onto hope that this mild November vs cold winter to come theory holds true. Watch this space in February in particular.

Hi @SqueakheartLW,

Thanks for the info. Apologies if I have missed something but you mention "the criteria for a mild November is a CET anomaly of at least +1C above the relevant year's climatological mean", wouldn't it need to be higher than standard deviation to be an anomaly and not higher than the mean ?

Also, are you extrapolating from comparisons with other years where November temps were similar that the overall winter outcome should likewise be similar ? wouldn't using one variable, the November temp similarities make this a weak analogue for this year ? I would have thought a good analogue would include lots of variables. I am not a weather person so totally clueless in that sense but in another sense we are mathematically modelling a complex phenomena with lots of variables, where each interaction between variable may have more or less significance than other variable interactions so I would expect there isnt much that can be extrapolated from the data ?

Excuse me if I am taking it too literally (Autistic), I just often see people look for past years and how they compare but in a math sense this only really works if you have something that compares on all the levels we measure, and when we understand all of the variables and their interactions. I don't expect we ever will know all the variables and their precise interactions when it comes to weather so I understand a statistical comparison with past years can be helpful in finding a good or reasonable analogue but I would have expected more variables to be compared at a minimum

 

Edited by maw368
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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
44 minutes ago, 38.7°C said:

What is so exciting about Easterlies in early December? Do they bring extreme cold? Just as Southerlies in early June dont really bring extreme heat. 

It's not so much a December problem as a lead up problem.

Dec 10 shows us that easterlies can roar but blocking was only east of the UK from the 19th-24th November, it immediately went to Greenland. What we've seen here is a Scandinavian Ridge week(s) old that it a bit slow to shift.

Essentially the failure here is the same one as Feb 05 (here it was great but near the coast and low ground it was a drizzle fest) which is that because there's been no cold shot first, the only thing that blocking to our north can give us for a while is mediocre upper temperatures. That's something that can happen any time of winter though.

Fortunately it looks like Greenland blocking will come which drives down the cold into Europe. Whether we get northerlies or easterlies after that is immaterial, they'll both be cold.

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Posted
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hoar Frost, Snow, Misty Autumn mornings
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL

 

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Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.

Out of interest, anyone taken the plunge and put a bet on a white Christmas? Percentages wise this may be the year to do it. Risk reward and all of that. If I was going to then I would go for eastern coasts. Depends on the odds though. If anywhere gives odds greater than 4-1 then I would be inclined….

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Posted
  • Location: North East
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder , Lightning , Snow , Blizzards
  • Location: North East
5 hours ago, chionomaniac said:

Out of interest, anyone taken the plunge and put a bet on a white Christmas? Percentages wise this may be the year to do it. Risk reward and all of that. If I was going to then I would go for eastern coasts. Depends on the odds though. If anywhere gives odds greater than 4-1 then I would be inclined….

William Hill the only firm I can find a live market on it , was hoping my location would be on (Newcastle) but no avail 😞 

 

Could contain: Plot, Chart, Text, Page

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