Winter 2022-23 : Forecasts and Discussions

[SqueakheartLW]

Fantasy warm and cold November 2022

My fantasy warm and cold November 2022 results are finally in and completed as there's no way I am going to be able to get anything colder or warmer for either category now for November 2022.

The detail is in the image above but I have provided a brief summary below as well

The dreaded fantasy warm November 2022

This comes in at an unreal 16.95C as a CET warm fantasy mean which is basically as warm as you would get as an average July month which is totally bonkers. This is a CET anomaly of a whopping +9.54C. Hope this never comes to pass but if things warm up in the future like they say could happen then could 16C CET Novembers become the norm?

The delightful fantasy cold November 2022

This one I did mention a couple of weeks ago how it has just got into sub zero territory. Well it didn't drop much further as I predicted and ended up coming in at a decent -0.29C in the end which is colder than the vast majority of winter months, let alone November which a CET of -0.29C is probably colder than any November on the record between 1659 and 2022. This came in with a CET anomaly of a cold -7.70C. Would love to see a November like this and would probably need another ice age in order to see this.

The other impressive stat from this was how much snow came in in this fantasy cold November 2022. A totally bonkers 204.7cm in the end.

A sneak peak at how fantasy warm and cold December 2022 are doing

Now that I have temperature data for all 31 days of December 2022 I will now give a sneak peak at how these are doing at present.

Fantasy Warm December 2022

Warm December 2022 got off to a decent start with many warmer figures appearing and as a consequence increasing the already bonkers value even more. However in recent days the consistent signal for colder weather in the models has stunted the progress of the fantasy warm December 2022 so this one may not be seeing it's potential.

However the current fantasy warm December 2022 CET mean value stands at

14.18C which is a ridiculous +9.21C above the 1991-2020 CET mean

This is still significantly above the record warm December 2015 and would make this look very tame indeed if this fantasy warm December 2022 were to actually come off. No thank you, don't want this at all.

Fantasy Cold December 2022

This one has been doing well throughout, especially recently with several models and runs going for some very cold temperatures, no doubt linked to the predicted cold spell ahead and some very low daily min, means and maxes have been showing up recently. This has really been upgrading this fantasy cold December 2022.

When I last mentioned this I had only just scraped into a sub -2C CET fantasy cold December 2022 and was hoping I could maybe scrape a sub -3C CET month. What I am about to mention far exceeded my expectations for this cold fantasy month.

The current running fantasy cold December 2022 CET stands at a frigid

-4.35C which comes in with a totally unreal anomaly of -9.32C below the 1991-2020 December CET mean

That -4.35C is over 2C colder than when I mentioned my fantasy cold December 2022 last time and the predicted cold ahead is making this value drop rather quickly now.

Don't fall off your chair when I share with you the snow total so far for fantasy cold December 2022. This stands at a whopping ...

387.6cm of snow ... yes you saw it ... 387.6cm of snow with potentially a lot more to add to it yet

Thought the fantasy cold November 2022 value of 204.7cm of snow was big but this December value has totally blown it away.

The detail for fantasy cold December 2022 is shown below if you wish to have a look

Edited November 30, 2022 by SqueakheartLW

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

So my winter LRF.  I’ll stick with what I have inspite of an even cleaner colder outlook initially coming. 
In my sig as part of the GSM forcing, I touted that there would be a MAJOR volcanic eruption in this decade that would have global implications.  Did we have it with Hunga Tonga this year?  

Well it was certainly record breaking and is having an immense effect on the SH….but I’m not convinced we are done yet

WILDCARD - SH Strat has been supercooled due to Hunga Tonga, Antarctica has been super cold with quite intense and record challenging/breaking cold waves affecting the SH continents of South America, Africa and Australia.  Cold, snow has been quite extreme.  Now this phenomena is not totally unknown and there is linkage that the following NH winter will produce prevalent Northern Blocking.  Are we seeing this play out?  See attached chart for November Anomaly….impressive, particularly the poles and swathes of the continents.

(This coincides with a rare 3rd La Nina in a row.  Pacific cooling….interesting research recent released. More La Nina’s?)

Systematic Climate Model Biases in the Large-Scale Patterns of Recent Sea-Surface Temperature and Sea-Level Pressure Change’, looked at temperatures at the surface of the ocean recorded by ships and buoys from 1979 to 2020.

It was discovered that the Pacific Ocean off South America had actually cooled over that time, along with ocean regions farther south, too. 

A new research paper has found ‘real world’ temperature differences in the Eastern Pacific Ocean that vary wildly from what the climate models say should be happening.

The researchers openly admit that they don’t know why this pattern is happening. Lead author Robert Wills, a UW research scientist in atmospheric sciences, said his team are now exploring possible links to the Antarctic ocean, which is also cooling.

“There’s something about the regional variation, the spatial pattern of warming in the tropical oceans, that is off,” said Wills, of the models. “If it turns out to be natural long-term cycles, maybe we can expect it to switch in the next five to ten years, but if it is a long-term trend due to some processes that are not well represented in the climate models, then it would be longer. Some mechanisms have a switch that would happen over the next few decades, but others could be a century or longer,” he added.)

Back to NH and snow totals are advancing on the high side, comfortably.  

There is vast cold to be tapped into, US and Canada, China, Russia are seeing cold records tumble or cold levels not seen for 5 decades.  Now we have models showing just ‘ridiculous’ northern blocking.  There’s something at play here.
I have touted 1984/5 (part of 19 year lunar nodal modulation which is anticipated to assist HLB in January) as back then there was La Nina as well.  Included in this is cycle 46/7, of 65/6, 2003/4 which were El Nino.  Jan 85 had strong Icelandic HP and very cold grip.  04 also brought NE’lies but a weaker blocking and shorter lived cold spell.

Caveat -Atlantic SSTs in 84 were colder somewhat….could this affect the outcome in our locale?  Interestingly though as the Nov global anomaly for Nov shows the North Atlantic region has cooled and is cooler than the 1990-2020 regime.

So here’s the forecast pre model ramp Up of HLB and deeper cold

December - blocking generally prevalent with E /Ne winds a feature.  Generally reasonably cold with week 2 (not excessively cold) and Xmas to New Year (pretty cold/snowy) the coldest periods.

HP will generally be in situ from Scandinavia/Iceland/Greenland with Atlantic generally held at bay particularly.  Troughs from north sinking south over or to East of UK incising HP linkage to East and West/NW a feature of the coldest weeks.  There is likely to be a waning of the blocking (particularly midmonth) as I’m not anticipating a GHP stranglehold but the blocking will always be in play in our locale of the NH and to re-invigorate later.

(anticipating some ‘noteworthy’ Hemispheric events.  I’ve been saying to keep an eye on the deep cold pooling in Siberia, date record/ record challenging cold to be recorded later in the month.  Also that date cold records have falken in large numbers across swathes of North America.  This shows that the Arctic has plenty of real cold with a pretty decent ice coverage this year so far.  Major Nor’Easter to look out for as HLB takes hold backend of December)

it does seem that we’re in the mix, but will it conspire that we are not privy to the plentiful real cold that will be in the NH?  It is the UK afterall.

January - I believe we’ll have strong Icelandic HP linked to Greenland and a general NE’ly to Easterly flow with any LPs tracking into the mainland to our south.  First week anticipated to be coldest of winter if the Xmas week comes off with cold entrenched.  Any waning likely after the first week….potentially HP to sit on top of the UK for while.  Retrogression of HP backend of the month.

Feb - a snowy breakdown as retrogression allows the Atlantic to come in to a generally mild/er month

So cold opportunities afoot, again pinpointing our island is fun, we have at least a good chance rather than no chance

 

 

BFTP

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited December 1, 2022 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Robbie Garrett]

Just reminded Gatters to get it's snow mobiles out

 

[Dennis]

a big Greenland block is ahead

 

Good weekend all and the winter is soon there 

Edited December 3, 2022 by Dennis

[Weather Enthusiast91]

Despite a fairly decent start to winter, I can still see December ending up the same way as every other month in 2022 - an above average CET. I have a feeling there will be a big change early in the new year though.

[SLEETY]

h#

3 minutes ago, Weather Enthusiast91 said:

Despite a fairly decent start to winter, I can still see December ending up the same way as every other month in 2022 - an above average CET. I have a feeling there will be a big change early in the new year though.

will have to be a dramatic change in the weather pattern 2nd half of Dec then if its going to finish above average.

First half looking welll below average CET wise.

[Rayth]

I’m half nervous about asking this question but does anyone know what happened to Bringback1962/63 ? Was a lovely guy and taught me quite a bit over PM , was just thinking about what he’d make of this current output  

He hasn’t been on the American site 33andrain for two years either  

[Catacol]

31 minutes ago, Rayth said:

I’m half nervous about asking this question but does anyone know what happened to Bringback1962/63 ? Was a lovely guy and taught me quite a bit over PM , was just thinking about what he’d make of this current output  

He hasn’t been on the American site 33andrain for two years either  

I don’t know either. Given his huge enthusiasm and then sudden disappearance the explanation may not be a happy one.

[Dennis]

Goodmorning and this week alot with happen to winter 

Edited December 5, 2022 by Dennis

[Jo Farrow]

The air will be much colder over the UK by Thursday. For now, the northerly flow is just clipping SE Scotland, NE England with rain showers for eastern England. A few sleet and snow bits over the mountain tops. You could see the spread of the shower cluster southwards along eastern Britain on the radar this morning but the line in the English Channel was stationary. Not a front but a convergence zone, with showers streaming in a line off Kent and a long way west. 

Some convergence setups in a more easterly v.COLD flow can produce snow streamers. The Thames streamer, Kent clipper. (are there more eastern ones?) Sea effect (like Lake effect) snow and a funnel of showers dumping glorious amounts of snow along a path governed by the wind direction. 

This time, just watching a little feature swinging in from the west on Thursday, across the Irish Sea to Wales and Manchester. Lancs. by the afternoon.

[Dennis]

 

That is some nice snow potential into next week 

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

December - blocking generally prevalent with E /Ne winds a feature.  Generally reasonably cold with week 2 (not excessively cold) and Xmas to New Year (pretty cold/snowy) the coldest periods.

HP will generally be in situ from Scandinavia/Iceland/Greenland with Atlantic generally held at bay particularly.  Troughs from north sinking south over or to East of UK incising HP linkage to East and West/NW a feature of the coldest weeks.  There is likely to be a waning of the blocking (particularly midmonth) as I’m not anticipating a GHP stranglehold but the blocking will always be in play in our locale of the NH and to re-invigorate later.
 

Ok folks time to elaborate on this a tad.  week 2 is a tad colder I think as the next 6 days may show.  Currently not colder than anticipated (3-4 c by day) but ice days certainly would be.

 I’m looking towards Xmas, I think the signalling of cold and blocking waning in a week is what I’m expecting, however, I’m really interested in the re-invigoraration of the cold Xmas week.  Serious cold pooling to our E/NE.  I think a renewed block will be in place there, and I’m anticipating a LP dive NNW to SSE either over us or just to our East /North Sea….timing around the big day itself.  This to then allow the entrenched deep cold to advect our way again.  Nothing I’m seeing is putting me off from this potential scenario

 

regards

 

BFTP

[damianslaw]

5 hours ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

December - blocking generally prevalent with E /Ne winds a feature.  Generally reasonably cold with week 2 (not excessively cold) and Xmas to New Year (pretty cold/snowy) the coldest periods.

HP will generally be in situ from Scandinavia/Iceland/Greenland with Atlantic generally held at bay particularly.  Troughs from north sinking south over or to East of UK incising HP linkage to East and West/NW a feature of the coldest weeks.  There is likely to be a waning of the blocking (particularly midmonth) as I’m not anticipating a GHP stranglehold but the blocking will always be in play in our locale of the NH and to re-invigorate later.
 

Ok folks time to elaborate on this a tad.  week 2 is a tad colder I think as the next 6 days may show.  Currently not colder than anticipated (3-4 c by day) but ice days certainly would be.

 I’m looking towards Xmas, I think the signalling of cold and blocking waning in a week is what I’m expecting, however, I’m really interested in the re-invigoraration of the cold Xmas week.  Serious cold pooling to our E/NE.  I think a renewed block will be in place there, and I’m anticipating a LP dive NNW to SSE either over us or just to our East /North Sea….timing around the big day itself.  This to then allow the entrenched deep cold to advect our way again.  Nothing I’m seeing is putting me off from this potential scenario

 

regards

 

BFTP

Does seem some signal in GFS latest runs to bring in such a feature from the NW, with possible heights then building in behind, a diving low on the 24th giving snow on its back edge then a week feeeze, would be a wonderful christmas present for snow lovers!

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

2 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Does seem some signal in GFS latest runs to bring in such a feature from the NW, with possible heights then building in behind, a diving low on the 24th giving snow on its back edge then a week feeeze, would be a wonderful christmas present for snow lovers!

Yep it’s in the mix D for sure.  Thanks for responding 

 

BFTP

[Don]

5 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Does seem some signal in GFS latest runs to bring in such a feature from the NW, with possible heights then building in behind, a diving low on the 24th giving snow on its back edge then a week feeeze, would be a wonderful christmas present for snow lovers!

What's a 'feeeze'?! 

You're not wrong!!

[damianslaw]

2 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Yep it’s in the mix D for sure.  Thanks for responding 

 

BFTP

Ive my fingers crossed, if it could happen on the 22nd or 23rd that would be ideal! Less interference christmas travelling etc.. 

Just now, Don said:

What's a 'feeeze'?! 

You're not wrong!!

A new word I've just made up!

[SqueakheartLW]

6 hours ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

December - blocking generally prevalent with E /Ne winds a feature.  Generally reasonably cold with week 2 (not excessively cold) and Xmas to New Year (pretty cold/snowy) the coldest periods.

HP will generally be in situ from Scandinavia/Iceland/Greenland with Atlantic generally held at bay particularly.  Troughs from north sinking south over or to East of UK incising HP linkage to East and West/NW a feature of the coldest weeks.  There is likely to be a waning of the blocking (particularly midmonth) as I’m not anticipating a GHP stranglehold but the blocking will always be in play in our locale of the NH and to re-invigorate later.
 

Ok folks time to elaborate on this a tad.  week 2 is a tad colder I think as the next 6 days may show.  Currently not colder than anticipated (3-4 c by day) but ice days certainly would be.

 I’m looking towards Xmas, I think the signalling of cold and blocking waning in a week is what I’m expecting, however, I’m really interested in the re-invigoraration of the cold Xmas week.  Serious cold pooling to our E/NE.  I think a renewed block will be in place there, and I’m anticipating a LP dive NNW to SSE either over us or just to our East /North Sea….timing around the big day itself.  This to then allow the entrenched deep cold to advect our way again.  Nothing I’m seeing is putting me off from this potential scenario

 

regards

 

BFTP

Your prediction not looking that far out so far.

Maybe a good chance and goes with the irony of a comment I made either in this thread or the Annual CET one that it would be ironic that 2022 is the year that the annual CET mean getting above 2014's or even above 11C was well within our grasp then it was "cruelly denied" for us by a December to remember for cold.

Not that setting an 11C CET mean is a good thing but after everything that has happened temperature wise in 2022 for us to just miss out would disguise the sort of year this has been for warmth and some extreme heat at times too.

Below is the latest data for December 2022 vs 2014 legacy requirements, 2014 new CET and the 1991-2020 December mean.

The provisional CET daily mean value for yesterday came in colder than I expected. Was predicted to be around 0.5C but surprised me when it was -1.1C

This has pushed all of the future predicted values a bit lower and has increased the chances that 2022 will miss out on an annual CET mean record, especially if we keep getting negative CET daily means and the cold goes on for quite a while in this month.

[Summer8906]

Is it fair to say that with the season starting the way it is doing, that the remainder is unlikely to be screaming zonality?

Struggling to find a year with a lot of cold in early mid December that then becomes a zonal fest. Perhaps 2001/02.

Still as likely as not to have a milder than average winter, but I suspect it would not be via screaming zonality but via more blocked setups. Perhaps a "battleground" setup with mild/wet alternating with cold/dry, something like 2000/01?

Edited December 10, 2022 by Summer8906

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

On 09/12/2022 at 21:28, SqueakheartLW said:

Your prediction not looking that far out so far.

Maybe a good chance and goes with the irony of a comment I made either in this thread or the Annual CET one that it would be ironic that 2022 is the year that the annual CET mean getting above 2014's or even above 11C was well within our grasp then it was "cruelly denied" for us by a December to remember for cold.

Not that setting an 11C CET mean is a good thing but after everything that has happened temperature wise in 2022 for us to just miss out would disguise the sort of year this has been for warmth and some extreme heat at times too.

Below is the latest data for December 2022 vs 2014 legacy requirements, 2014 new CET and the 1991-2020 December mean.

The provisional CET daily mean value for yesterday came in colder than I expected. Was predicted to be around 0.5C but surprised me when it was -1.1C

Thanks, pretty happy thus far.  The depth of cold has been a tad stronger….and this may lead to a shortening of any ‘relaxation’ of the cold spell and I think there is potential ‘even deeper’ cold to come yet.  
 

BFTP

Edited December 13, 2022 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Don]

On 10/12/2022 at 14:27, Summer8906 said:

Is it fair to say that with the season starting the way it is doing, that the remainder is unlikely to be screaming zonality?

Struggling to find a year with a lot of cold in early mid December that then becomes a zonal fest. Perhaps 2001/02.

Still as likely as not to have a milder than average winter, but I suspect it would not be via screaming zonality but via more blocked setups. Perhaps a "battleground" setup with mild/wet alternating with cold/dry, something like 2000/01?

No and the strat forecasts are currently pretty grim!!

[summer blizzard]

On 10/12/2022 at 14:27, Summer8906 said:

Is it fair to say that with the season starting the way it is doing, that the remainder is unlikely to be screaming zonality?

Struggling to find a year with a lot of cold in early mid December that then becomes a zonal fest. Perhaps 2001/02.

Still as likely as not to have a milder than average winter, but I suspect it would not be via screaming zonality but via more blocked setups. Perhaps a "battleground" setup with mild/wet alternating with cold/dry, something like 2000/01?

Unfortunately not. Although we could get lucky and keep cold all winter long, there are plenty of examples of winters that looked like elastic bands albeit less pronounced than say 2010.

 

 

[damianslaw]

Posts above, many a winter has seen very cold first halves followed by zonal wet second halves, not saying this will happen. Recent examples include 10/11, the cold relented by mid Jan and the rest of the winter very mild and very wet especially in February. 1996-97 another very good example, Dec not as cold, but still cold, early-mid Jan very cold then mild, very mild all the way. 1981/82 - did the same. 2001-2002 to a certain extent, Dec 01 wasn't especially cold, but was generall cold, the New Year was very cold, but from the 5th onwards mild all the way.

The last time we had a cold December followed by persistant further cold was 09-10, also 95-96. 

 

[summer blizzard]

I took a look at December CET's below 4C since 1920..

1923 - Cold

1925 - 6+

1927 - 5+

1928 - Cold

1933 - Cold

1935 - Cold

1937 - 5+

1939 - Cold

1940 - Cold

1943 - 5+

1944 - 7+

1946 - Cold

1950 - Cold

1952 - Cold

1960 - 6+

1961 - Cold

1962 - Cold

1963 - Cold

1964 - Cold

1968 - 5+

1969 - Cold

1976 - 5+

1978 - Cold

1981 - Cold

1992 - 5+

1995 - Cold

1996 - 6+

2001 - 7+

2008 - Cold

2009 - Cold

2010 - 6+

I basically split them into two camps. Those which stayed cold/average during Jan/Feb and those which hit 5+.

Of our 31 sample size, 12 of those were elastic bands so about a 60/40 split in favour of cold/average.

[Summer8906]

On the same topic, what about Decembers which were cold early on, becoming much milder later (as this one appears to be doing)?

So a breakdown sometime between mid-month and Christmas, which then persists for at least two weeks.

We haven't had such a year recently, but possible candidates include 1990, 1991, 2002, 2007 and 2012.

Of these it is notable that none of the Februaries following were zonal, though temps were varied. In fact all were generally anticyclonic though only Feb 1991 and 2013 were actually cold. The Januaries were mixed, only 2008 was zonal and wet almost throughout but there was something of a tendency for mild at first, colder later.

If we then extend it to years where the breakdown occurred rather later, towards the end of the year, we could also add in 2003 and 2005. The following Januaries were mild and wet, colder later (2004) and mild first half, colder second half (2006). Both Februaries tended anticyclonic.

I'm not sure how similar the current atmospheric pattern is to 1990, 1991, 2002, 2003, 2005, 2007 and 2012 - but if it is, it might suggest that any zonal spell will peak in January, particularly the first half, leaving more benign conditions (which could be either cold or mild) in late winter.

Going further back, the "sandwich winter" seemed to be a feature of some years of the late 1960s and early 1970s, i.e. cold Dec and Feb, and mild Jan. IIRC from archives, the three winters of 1967/8, 1968/9 and 1969/70 were all like that.

There is of course (as has been said above) the 1981/2 and 2010/11 "frontloaded" type, but neither of course featured a definitive breakdown until into the new year.

Edited December 17, 2022 by Summer8906

[Roger J Smith]

Very evident that persistent blocking over NAm is breaking down as the Pacific finally gets in and pushes a zonal flow across the continent in the week or two after the pre-Christmas storm and cold outbreak. This will probably lead to 2-3 weeks of milder weather in western Europe too, next colder spell probably going to come some distance past NYD into mid-January, then variable before turning very mild in mid to late February.