December 2022 C.E.T. and EWP contests _ start of a new contest year

[Frigid]

On 20/11/2022 at 00:41, Frigid said:

1.8C and 45mm please. Cold and dry to end a record breaking warm year

 

I thought my I'd change my mind by now but looking at the models and long range forecasts, it could well be possible. Either way, I'll be happy even if we get a December in the 3s 

[LetItSnow!]

I’ve about a minute to guess… 3.1C and 41.7mm please!

[Guest]

2.9c and 67mm

[Freeze]

1.8c and 66mm

[Roger J Smith]

^^^ end of on-time entries ^^^

 

Table of forecasts for December 2022

 

CET _ EWP _ Forecaster (order of entry) _____ CET _ EWP _ Forecaster (order of entry) ____ 

 

 9.9 _ --- --- _ ThunderHellCat ( L2-1 ) ________

 7.4 _135.0__ I Remember Atlantic252 ( 08 ) _ 3.7 _ 50.0 __ john88b ( 31 ) ________________ 

 7.1 _ 45.0 __ syed2878 ( 19 ) _________________ 3.7 _ 58.0 __ rwtwm ( 58 ) __________________

 6.9 _ 25.0 __ Warwickshire Lad ( 26 ) ________ 3.6 _ 90.0 __ Leo97t ( 28 ) __________________ 

 5.9 _ 70.0 __ DiagonalRedLine ( 09 ) _________ 3.6 _ 34.0 __ Metwatch ( 33 ) _______________ 

 5.5 _ 96.0 __ Weather 26 ( 02 ) ______________ 3.6 _ 46.0 __ Matt Tarrant ( 51 ) ____________

 5.5 _ 68.0 __ dancerwithwings ( 15, 8.5 ) ____ 3.5 _ 44.0 __ Mapantz ( 38 ) ________________

 5.3 _112.0__ Roger J Smith ( 60 ) ____________ 3.5 _ 51.0 __ seaside60 ( 64 ) ______________

 5.2 _ 93.5 __ bobd29 ( 06 ) __________________ 3.5 _ --- ---__ Damianslaw ( 72 ) ____________ 

 5.0 _ 66.0 __ Ed Stone ( 04 ) _________________ 3.4 _ 61.0 __ SouthLondonCold ( 54 ) ______

 5.0 _ 55.0 __ fozfoster ( 62 ) _________________ 3.4 _ 82.0 __ Feb1991Blizzard ( 71 ) ________

 4.9 _ 48.0 __ snowray ( 18 ) _________________ 3.4 _ 56.3 __ Thundery Wintry Showers ( 84 ) 

 4.9 _ 85.0 __ J 10 ( 81 ) ______________________ 3.3 _119.0_ prolongedSnowLover ( 63 ) __

 4.9 _105.5__ 1992-2021 average  ____________ 3.3 _ --- --- _ Man with Beard ( 80 ) ________

 4.8 _126.0__ Snowboy111 ( 35 ) ____________ 3.2 _ 74.8 __ Kirkcaldy Weather ( 13 ) _____

 4.8 _103.6__ 1991-2020 average ____________ 3.1 _ 76.0 __ stewfox ( 17 ) _________________

 4.8 _ --- ---__ Froze were the Days ( 85 ) _____3.1 _ 36.0 __ Captain Shortwave ( 52 ) _____

 4.7 _173.1__ Chilly Milly ( 05 ) _______________3.1 _ 44.0 __ Pegg24 ( 53 ) _________________

______________________________________________ 3.1 _ --- ---__ Mark Bayley ( 79 ) ____________

 4.6 _ 92.0 __ summer18 ( 14 ) _______________3.1 _ 41.7 __ Let It Snow! ( 86 ) ____________

 4.6 _ 64.0 __ Stargazer ( 20 ) ________________ 3.0 _ 70.0 __ Norrance ( 48 ) _______________

 4.5 _109.0 __summer8906 ( 43 ) ____________ 2.9 _ 48.0 __ vizzy2004 ( 23 ) _______________

 4.5 _ 97.4 __ 1981-2010 average ____________ 2.9 _ 51.0 __ S Bragg ( 41 ) _________________

 ______________________________________________ 2.9 _ 44.0 __ davehsug ( 74 ) ________________

 ______________________________________________ 2.9 _ 49.0 __ Weather Observer ( 76 ) ______

_______________________________________________2.9 _ 67.0 __ Tidal Wave ( 87 ) ______________

 4.4 _ --- ---__ Earthshine ( 03 ) _______________ 2.8 _ 45.0 __ BlastFromThePast ( 46 ) _______ 

 ______________________________________________ 2.8 _ 53.0 __ noname_weather ( 66 ) ________

_______________________________________________2.8 _ 86.0 __ Mulzy ( 70 ) ____________________

 4.4 _ 75.0 __ Mark Neal ( 30 ) _______________  2.7 _ --- ---__ Walsall Wood Snow ( 56 ) ____

 4.4 _ 98.0 __ DCee ( 50 ) _____________________ 2.6 _124.0__Jonboy ( 29 ) __________________

_______________________________________________ 2.5 _ --- ---__ Kentish Man ( 67 ) ____________

_______________________________________________ 2.5 _ 79.0 __ Stationary Front ( 69 ) ________ 

 4.3 _ 92.0 __ Reef ( 47 ) ______________________ 2.4 _ 48.0 __ Coldest Winter ( 59 ) _________

 4.2 _ --- --- __Summer Sun ( 34 ) _____________ 2.3 _ 71.0 __ Emmett Garland ( 73 ) _______

 4.2 _ --- ---__ Typhoon John ( 75 ) ____________ 2.2 _ 44.0 __ Godber 1 ( 10 ) _______________

 4.1 _ 80.0 __ Jeff C ( 24 ) _____________________ 2.1 _ 66.0 __ Cumbrian Ice ( 40 ) ____________

 4.1 _ 53.0 __ Moorlander ( 32 ) ______________ 2.1 _ 56.0 __ daniel* ( 49 ) __________________

 4.1 _ 53.0 __ summer blizzard ( 36 ) _________ 1.9 _ 49.0 __ icykev ( 39 ) ___________________

 4.1 _ 77.0 __ SteveB ( 45 ) ____________________1.9 _ --- ---__ Andrew R ( 77 ) ________________

 4.0 _ 40.0 __ The PIT ( 16 ) ___________________ 1.8 _ 45.0 __ Frigid ( 01 ) ___________________

 4.0 _ 80.0 __ DR(S)NO ( 25 ) __________________1.8 _ 56.5 __ Kentspur ( 55 ) _______________

 4.0 _ 84.0 __ February1978 ( 82 ) _____________1.8 _ 66.0 __ freeze ( 88 ) __________________

 3.9 _ 26.0 __ shillitocettwo ( 12 ) _____________ 1.4 _ 78.0 __ Cymro ( 27 ) __________________

 3.9 _ 22.0 __ Neil N ( 21 ) _____________________1.2 _ 60.2 __ Polar Gael ( 07 ) _______________

 3.8 _ 66.0 __ virtualsphere ( 11 ) _____________ 1.2 _ 27.0 __ Connor Bailey Degnan ( 37 ) ___

 3.8 _ 63.0 __ Wold Topper ( 22 ) ______________1.1 _ 55.0 __ Ross Andrew Hemphill ( 42 ) ___

 3.8 _ 50.0 __ sunny_vale ( 44 ) ________________1.0 _ 55.0 __ Anthony Burden ( 61 ) ___________

 3.8 _ 44.0 __ Mr Maunder ( 68 ) ______________ 1.0 _ 75.0 __ Midlands Ice Age ( 65 ) ___________

 3.8 _ 90.0 __ Don ( 78 ) _______________________ 0.9 _ 78.0 __ Booferking ( 83 ) _________________

 3.5 _ 63.0 __ consensus (so far) _____________ -0.4 _ 58.0 __ SLEETY ( L1-2 ) ___________________

 3.8 _ --- ---__ Quicksilver1989 ( L-1 ) __________ -0.8 _ 98.0 __ Robbie Garrett ( 57 ) ____________

 

Consensus of 91 forecasts so far __ 3.5 (median)

=================================

EWP forecasts in order

173.1 _ch mil .. 135 _IRem .. 126 _snowboy .. 124 _jon .. 119 _pSL .. 112 _RJS

109 _sum8906 .. 105.5 _92-21 .. 103.6 _91-20 .. 98 _DCee, RG .. 97.4 _81-10

 96 _wx26 .. 93.5 _bob .. 92 _sum18, Reef .. 90 _Leo, Don .. 86 _Mul .. 85 _J10 .. 84 _Feb78 ..

 82 _Feb91 ..  80 _Jef, DR(S) ..  79 _SF .. 78 _cym, boof .. 77 _Ste .. 76 _stew .. 75 _MNeal, MIA ..

 74.8 _KW .. 71 _EG .. 70 _DRL, Norr .. 68 _dww .. 67 _TidW .. 66 _EdS, virt, Cum, fre ..

 64 _star .. 63 _WT .. 61 _SLC .. 60.2 _PG .. 58 _rwtwm, SLE^ .. 56.5 _Kent .. 56.3_ TWS .. 56_dan*

 55 _RAH, AB, foz .. 53 _Moor, SB. non .. 51 _SBragg, sea .. 50 _john, svale .. 49 _icy, WxObs ..

 48 _snowray, viz, cw .. 46 _Matt .. 45 _Frig,syed,BFTP .. 44 _godb,Map,pegg, MrM, dave ..

 41.7 _LIS .. 40 _PIT .. 36 _Capt .. 34 _Met .. 27 _CBD .. 26 _shil .. 25 _WLad .. 22 _NN

___________________

(^ one forecast late one day)

consensus of 79 forecasts so far, 63.0 mm. 

_________________________________

 

<<< Late entries can be submitted up to end of 3 Dec and those will be added to table >>>

All entries above this post are on time using five minute grace period, plus I could see you were there typing from 2359 to 0003h. 

 

 

Edited December 2, 2022 by Roger J Smith

[Derecho]

I'll go for 3.8C, colder then average but not cold enough to prevent the annual CET record being broken.

[SLEETY]

Sorry a bit late.

-0.4 c 58mm

 

 

 

 

[Roger J Smith]

Average and extreme CET values 1772 to 2021

All data shown in these tables have been adjusted to v2.0, although the daily and running CET 1981-2010 and 1991-2020 are only adjusted by subtracting 0.1 from all data derived from CET legacy as that is the average adjustment made to the legacy data. I hope to have more precise values available for the next year. The record values shown here are v2.0 ... note also the daily reports on CET anomalies are no longer directly comparable because the Met Office data changed protocols when legacy ended and v2.0 started up, the table now compares the running mean to the end of month 1961-1990 mean. That wasn't the case before the change in May of 2022. As a result, our daily reports are not as comparable since we have these running means available and they are used to show the 1981-2010 departures. Near the end of the month the difference is less significant of course. I am watching to see if the Met Office decide (a) to return to comparing running CET values with running means, and (b) they stumble out of the distant past in terms of the 30-year normal used, and switch to 1971-2000 or 1981-2010. Eventually they will do so, I am guessing.

 

 _______________________ Daily record values ____ Extremes of running CET

DATE ___ CET __ CET cum _____ MAX _______ MIN _______ MAX _______ MIN

01 _____ 5.7 ___ 5.7 ______ 12.1 (1775) ___ --3.0 (1947) ____ 12.1 (1775) __ --3.0 (1947)

02 _____ 5.7 ___ 5.7 ______ 12.0 (1985) ___ --4.7 (1796) ____ 11.1 (1775) __ --3.4 (1796)

03 _____ 5.9 ___ 5.8 ______ 12.0 (1985) ___ --4.2 (1879) ____ 10.8 (1775) __ --3.2 (1879)

04 _____ 6.0 ___ 5.8 ______ 12.0 (1888) ___ --3.6 (1879,1925) _10.8 (1985) __ --3.3 (1879)

05 _____ 6.0 ___ 5.9 ______ 12.7 (1898) ___ --3.7 (1844) ____ 10.4 (1898,1985) _ --3.3 (1879)

06 _____ 4.9 ___ 5.7 ______ 12.1 (1898) ___ --5.5 (1844) ____ 10.7 (1898) __ --3.4 (1879)

07 _____ 4.7 ___ 5.6 ______ 12.1 (1856) ___ --5.3 (1879) ____ 10.2 (1898, 2015) _ --3.7 (1879)

08 _____ 4.3 ___ 5.4 ______ 12.0 (1856) ___ --5.4 (1807) ____ 10.4 (2015) __ --3.4 (1879)

09 _____ 4.4 ___ 5.3 ______ 11.7 (1934) ___ --4.0 (1803) ____ 10.1 (2015) __ --3.0 (1879)

10 _____ 4.2 ___ 5.2 ______ 10.7 (1856,1997) __ --4.5 (1784) __ 9.8 (2015)_--2.6 (1879)

11 _____ 4.1 ___ 5.1 ______ 12.4 (1994) ___ --6.7 (1784) ____ 9.7 (1898) __--2.6 (1879)

12 _____ 4.1 ___ 5.0 ______ 12.7 (1994) ___ --8.7 (1981) _____ 9.7 (1898) __ --2.3 (1879)

13 _____ 4.5 ___ 5.0 ______ 11.5 (1918) ___ --6.7 (1981) _____ 9.5 (2000) __ --2.1 (1879)

14 _____ 4.3 ___ 4.9 ______ 11.5 (2006) ___ --5.5 (1878) _____ 9.3 (1898) __ --1.7 (1879)

15 _____ 4.5 ___ 4.9 ______ 11.1 (1985) ___ --5.4 (1788) _____ 9.1 (1898) __ --1.3 (1879)

16 _____ 4.5 ___ 4.9 ______ 11.4 (2015) ___ --6.4 (1859) _____ 9.0 (2015) __ --1.0 (1844, 1879)

17 _____ 4.3 ___ 4.8 ______ 12.5 (2015) ___ --7.5 (1859) _____ 9.2 (2015) __ --1.0 (1879)

18 _____ 4.3 ___ 4.8 ______ 12.5 (2015) ___ --7.0 (1859) _____ 9.4 (2015) __ --0.9 (1878,79)

19 _____ 4.2 ___ 4.8 ______ 13.0 (2015) ___ --6.8 (2010) _____ 9.6 (2015) __ --0.8 (1879)

20 _____ 3.6 ___ 4.7 ______ 11.1 (1833) ___ --7.0 (2010) _____ 9.7 (2015) __--0.9 (1878)

21 _____ 4.1 ___ 4.7 ______ 11.4 (1971) ___ --5.9 (2010) _____ 9.7 (2015) __ --1.0 (2010)

22 _____ 4.4 ___ 4.7 ______ 11.5 (1991) ___ --5.7 (1890) _____ 9.7 (2015) __ --1.0 (1878, 2010)

23 _____ 4.6 ___ 4.7 ______ 11.6 (1991) ___ --6.2 (1870) _____ 9.7 (2015) __ --1.1 (1878, 2010)

24 _____ 4.6 ___ 4.7 ______ 10.7 (1843) __ --6.7 (1830,1870) __ 9.6 (2015) _ --1.3 (1878)

25 _____ 4.4 ___ 4.7 ______ 10.4 (1824) __ --10.8 (1796) _____ 9.5 (2015) __ --1.5 (1878)

26 _____ 4.2 ___ 4.6 ______ 11.0 (2011) __ --5.4 (1786, 1798) __ 9.6 (2015) _ --1.5 (1878)

27 _____ 3.8 ___ 4.6 ______ 10.8 (2015) ___ --8.4 (1798) _____ 9.6 (2015) __ --1.4 (2010)

28 _____ 4.0 ___ 4.6 ______ 11.3 (1987) ___ --8.2 (1798) _____ 9.6 (2015) __ --1.3 (2010)

29 _____ 3.8 ___ 4.6 ______ 11.9 (1987) ___ --5.3 (1908) _____ 9.7 (2015) __ --1.1 (2010)

30 _____ 4.1 ___ 4.5 ______ 11.3 (2021) ___ --6.0 (1870) _____ 9.7 (2015) __ --0.9 (2010)

31 _____ 4.1 ___ 4.5 ______ 12.9 (2021) ___ --7.1 (1783) _____ 9.6 (2015) __ --0.8 (1890)

________________________________________________________________ 

So from this we see that 2015 had one crack at being warmest Dec (7th to 10th), fell out of first place for a while, then resumed the lead from 16th to end of month. The closest to 2015 that any year came after the 20th was 8.7 (1898 - 21st). As for 2010, it moved into first by the 21st, had a running battle with 1878, shook that off but got nipped at the very end by 1890 which never held the lead at any other stage. Other noteworthy late negative running CET values would include 1788 which was -0.4 on 23rd and -0.3 on 30th-31st, 1796 which was running at -1.0 from 26th to 28th, 1844 which was -0.2 on 25th, 1879 held on at -0.4 to 25th, and more recently 1981 was running at -0.2 from 24th to 27th (finished 0.3). 

===============================================================

1991-2020 daily and cumulative CET values

01 ___ 5.7 __ 5.7 _______ 11 ___ 4.7 __ 5.4 _______ 21 ___ 4.5 __ 5.0 

02 ___ 5.9 __ 5.8 _______ 12 ___ 4.7 __ 5.3 _______ 22 ___ 5.2 __ 5.0 

03 ___ 5.9 __ 5.8 _______ 13 ___ 4.9 __ 5.3 _______ 23 ___ 5.5 __ 5.1 

04 ___ 5.4 __ 5.7 _______ 14 ___ 4.5 __ 5.2 _______ 24 ___ 4.9 __ 5.1 

05 ___ 5.5 __ 5.7 _______ 15 ___ 4.9 __ 5.2 _______ 25 ___ 4.5 __ 5.0 

06 ___ 5.3 __ 5.6 _______ 16 ___ 5.0 __ 5.2 _______ 26 ___ 4.4 __ 5.0 

07 ___ 5.3 __ 5.6 _______ 17 ___ 4.6 __ 5.2 _______ 27 ___ 4.0 __ 5.0 

08 ___ 5.3 __ 5.5 _______ 18 ___ 4.8 __ 5.1 _______ 28 ___ 3.9 __ 4.9 

09 ___ 5.0 __ 5.5 _______ 19 ___ 4.7 __ 5.1 _______ 29 ___ 4.0 __ 4.9 

10 ___ 5.1 __ 5.4 _______ 20 ___ 4.0 __ 5.1 _______ 30 ___ 4.3 __ 4.9 

________________________________________________ _31 ___ 4.4 __ 4.8

There is a noticeable spike in mean temperature around the 22nd-23rd Dec. 

NOTE: for the time being, the daily and running CET values for 1981-2010 and 1991-2020 are 0.1 C lower than those calculated from CET legacy. This is an approximation reflecting the fact that v2.0 average temperatures are 0.1 to 0.2 lower than legacy values. 

 

[summer blizzard]

As ever, golden Information Roger. 

Do we have any notable CET values to chase in the cold camp to the 10th, 15th, and 20th (assuming they would all be 2010 most recently but would also be interested in the second place values since then).

Edited December 2, 2022 by summer blizzard

[Summer Sun]

3.8c to the 1st

0.7c below the 61 to 90 average
1.9c below the 81 to 10 average

[Met.]

Despite the cold start to the month, it will be notably mild in the end, with a CET of 9.9°C. 

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

Yesterday I was thinking have I gone too high ?

Today I might be in with a shout

[Roger J Smith]

You have to wonder if perhaps Craig Evans (Lettucing Gutted last sighting several years ago) has returned? 

 

[Roger J Smith]

7 hours ago, summer blizzard said:

As ever, golden Information Roger. 

Do we have any notable CET values to chase in the cold camp to the 10th, 15th, and 20th (assuming they would all be 2010 most recently but would also be interested in the second place values since then).

The lowest values for 1981, 2010 and the rest of the years since 1940 in groups ... it hasn't been all that cold since 2010 or even 2012 so I listed the coldest values 2013-21 after 2012 took all three of the post-2010 honours.

 

LOWEST CET VALUES (1-10, 1-15, 1-20)

Dates ___ 1981 ___ 2010 _____ 1982-2009 ___ 1940-1980 ___ 2011-2021 ___ 2013-2021

1-10 _____ 2.8 _____ -1.3 _______ 2.1 (2008) ____ 1.3 (1952) ____ 2.9 (2012) ____ 3.7 (2020)

1-15 _____ 0.6 ______ 0.0 _______ 1.9 (1991) ____ 1.7 (1950,76) _ 2.3 (2012) ____ 3.6 (2017)

1-20 _____-0.3 ______-0.7 _______ 3.0 (1990) ____ 1.6 (1976) ____ 3.2 (2012) ____ 3.6 (2017)

_________________

1981 reached its lowest value on 26th at -0.5, 2010 on 8th (-2.2) and later 27th (-1.45). 

2012 was lowest at 1.9 for 1-13 Dec. 

1962 was at -0.3 for 1-5, warmed to 3.7 by 21st then fell to 1.8 at end of month.

Another cold start was 1987 with 2.1 for 1-14. 

Edited December 2, 2022 by Roger J Smith
crazy Net-weather internal censor changes "m0dern era" to Christmas pudding LOL

[Don]

6 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

3.8c to the 1st

0.7c below the 61 to 90 average
1.9c below the 81 to 10 average

Not often we've seen below the 61-90 and 81-10 averages this year!

[SummerShower]

What would the exact CET need to be for December to stop this year being the warmest on record. A 1.8 finish, as unlikely as it is,would get to 11.0 for the year but the new series only has the yearly totals rounded to 1 decimal place. What was 2014 to 2 decimals?

 

This is possibly moot, as were unlikely to finish THAT low for December, but just out of interest really.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Summer Sun]

3.9c to the 2nd

0.6c below the 61 to 90 average
1.8c below the 81 to 10 average

[summer blizzard]

A quick look at the GFS temperature forecasts shows my location averaging about 2C between 3rd-11th. The real cold (near zero means) seems to arrive about the 7th.

How long that lasts from about the 7th is as yet undecided by modelling.

[Summer Sun]

4.2c to the 3rd

0.3c below the 61 to 90 average
1.6c below the 81 to 10 average

[damianslaw]

Rare to see the CET running below the 61-90 average in 2022. Only one way it will go is down in the week ahead, could easily be sitting in the 2s by this time next week, possibly even lower. It will be quite a tall order then to produce an above average month even if we see exceptionally mild second half, but plausible I guess.. but at this very early stage, the odds of the first below average month in 2022 seems quite high.. lets see where we are in 10 days time.

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

Might have gone too mild at 3.3c!

Looking more like sub 2c if the latest charts verify!

[damianslaw]

Interesting to note how cold first halves to December in recent years, have been followed by much milder periods, sometimes lasting rest of the month, sometimes not as follows:

Dec 2008 - the cold weather broke around 14th, then we had a week or so of very mild weather, before it became cold by christmas and progressively colder through last week.

Dec 2010 - yes there was an even a relaxation of the cold from about the 11th until the 15th - albeit very shortlived..

Dec 2012 - a cold first half, again broke around the 12th-13th and the rest of the month was very mild indeed

Dec 2017 - similiar to Dec 2012 with cold breaking around mid month, but then a bit of cold came back just after christmas but not significant, mild tail end again

Dec 2020 - cold first 10 days, not exceptionally so, very mild middle third, cold came back on Christmas Eve and held through to New Year, remarkably similiar to 2008 but not same depth of cold.

Will we see another 2008, 2020 this year? or a 2012, 2017? My hunch a 2008...

2009 not mentioned as the cold didn't arrive until the 11th Dec, 1981 - cold arrive around 6/7th. 

[Summer Sun]

4.0c to the 4th

0.5c below the 61 to 90 average
1.8c below the 81 to 10 average

[summer blizzard]

Will be interesting to observe a CET collapse not seen in a while. I'm a tad north of the CET zone but GFS estimates the 8th-12th to average -1.5C here.

[Frigid]

Coldest December since 2010 on the cards? GFS 12z showing no signs of a warm up, ground would be rock solid.