Winter 2022/23 - Moans, Ramps & Chat

[Bald Eagle]

And still they believe a computer algorithm spurting out possible scenarios. I suppose it's a bit like religion, who believes which one is best, when the reality is, it doesn't really matter  

[Weather-history]

14 minutes ago, Bristle Si said:

Yes, it's pathetic. 

A Psychiatrist's dream case study, Winter after Winter, without fail.

I think a psychiatrist would have a field day with some members trying to work out what makes them tick but one thing that really does baffles me is why someone who lives over 2000 miles away gets hung up about what the weather may or may not do in the UK. Sure, I look at the weather around the world to see what is going on but I don't get hung up about whether a possible snowstorm in the NE of the USA starts going pear-shaped on the models. 

 

[Mullet]

Normally I do enjoy extremes of weather, but this year I'm not bothered about deep cold or snow. I'd rather not have the expense of heating the house.

So the trend of unraveling a severe cold spell is a win in my book. At least this year.

When it comes to cold weather, 72+ is FI for me. Been suckered in more times than I care to mention. Almost ramped it at work today and thought better of it!

[Wold Topper]

I have followed the MAD thread this week and read nearly every page, until this evening, its just become a blur of pointless emotion, the good, regular, knowledgeable posters are being drowned out in a sea of noise and all because snowmaggedon isn't happening tomorrow!

Edited December 2, 2022 by Wold Topper

[draztik]

8 minutes ago, Wold Topper said:

I have followed the MAD thread this week and read nearly every page, until this evening, its just become a blur of pointless emotion, the good, regular, knowledgeable posters are being drowned out in a sea of noise and all because snowmaggedon isn't happening tomorrow!

It is the same year in, year out. If this does fail, give it a week or so... and they'll be back for the next great adventure.

I ignore the thread for the most part at this time of year.

[ChannelThunder]

13 minutes ago, Wold Topper said:

I have followed the MAD thread this week and read nearly every page, until this evening, its just become a blur of pointless emotion, the good, regular, knowledgeable posters are being drowned out in a sea of noise and all because snowmaggedon isn't happening tomorrow!

Indeed! I don't have all that much free time to read these forums, and at this time of year, when I do have a look each day, there have usually been 20-30 new pages over in that thread, so it's nearly impossible to keep up with it and gain any benefit from the informative posts hidden within the craziness! 

[The Enforcer]

16 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Not much sign of that milder incursion by a week tomorrow at least in the MOGREPS ensembles.

 

12 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

Just thinking maybe the ECM bias of over amplifying might be causing it to overshoot the high pressure too far north compared to the other models.

I think we have almost lost the initial deep push of cold uppers  from earlier runs, but post day 5 is still very much up for grabs.

Huge scatter

Will there be some polar air? Probably.

Will it be as cold as some runs have suggested? Probably not.

Will there be an immediate return to extreme mild conditions as shown by the latest 12z ECM Operational run? Probably not.

Edited December 2, 2022 by The Enforcer

[snowblizzard]

Didn't this happen last year? Strong signals from many models for Northern blocking, favourable MJO,etc. But, it didn't materialise and it all went pear shaped very quickly! But, models are currently unanimous on 14 day period of strong -NAO So, perhaps it's just a temporary blip. 🫰

[Lincs Observation]

Evening

 

quick question does anyone know why the Xmas countdown forecast is saying 2021 with charts from that year? Is it an error or is their no intention to do it this year.

LO

[Don]

Another potential cold spell cancelled yet again?!!  One wonders what the point is looking for a genuine cold spell in the UK these days!!

Edited December 2, 2022 by Don

[Bald Eagle]

29 minutes ago, ResonantChannelThunder said:

Indeed! I don't have all that much free time to read these forums, and at this time of year, when I do have a look each day, there have usually been 20-30 new pages over in that thread, so it's nearly impossible to keep up with it and gain any benefit from the informative posts hidden within the craziness! 

On the flip side, so you think any of the usual suspects peek in here and realise how ridiculous some of their reactions are? I love weather, I do follow that thread but it gets a little...I think  childish sometimes. Anyway, heating the house is a struggle for millions this year so a flip to a milder run is a win win for the country.

[E17boy]

Hi peeps

We on here seem to always get our wheels fallen off when an upcoming cold spell fails. I was just wondering as a matter of interest has there been any predicted mild spells in the past that have failed and ended up as epic cold.

Would be interesting to know how the setup turned.

regards

 

[jam]

1 minute ago, E17boy said:

Hi peeps

We on here seem to always get our wheels fallen off when an upcoming cold spell fails. I was just wondering as a matter of interest has there been any predicted mild spells in the past that have failed and ended up as epic cold.

Would be interesting to know how the setup turned.

regards

 

when the wheels actually  fall off i’m sure it can be discussed 

[Paul]

Don't know if too many people know this, but you can follow your favourite members and use those follows to create a highlights reel for yourself. Just visit their profile and choose to follow them, then you can use the link below to read their posts every day. 

https://community.netweather.tv/discover/followed-members/

May be a good way to view the posts you find most useful on busier days in the model thread etc. 

[okidoke]

8 minutes ago, E17boy said:

Hi peeps

We on here seem to always get our wheels fallen off when an upcoming cold spell fails. I was just wondering as a matter of interest has there been any predicted mild spells in the past that have failed and ended up as epic cold.

Would be interesting to know how the setup turned.

regards

 

No never lol

 

[Methuselah]

9 minutes ago, jam said:

when the wheels actually  fall off i’m sure it can be discussed 

And that's it exactly, the wheels haven't yet fallen off anything: it's just that everything gets compared to the super-duperest run that's been seen? Computer models will never (I hope!) ever have a complete handle on what the weather's going to do... If they ever do, our hobby will go down the drain!

Edited December 2, 2022 by Ed Stone

[okidoke]

OK so I have been watching in the background for a few days seeing all the eye candy and I'm shocked that once again we have been lead down the garden path it's happened before SO many times yet we never learn, cold block won't move. Well it seems mild always wins .. you couldn't make it up -nao and southern England ends up ..meh

I remember a few years ago all models bar 1 went for cold and snowy and which one do u think one it was a massive flip.. top tip wait till its 24hrs away to get excited 

[Vikos]

18 rolling out, enjoy the ride

[jam]

3 minutes ago, okidoke said:

OK so I have been watching in the background for a few days seeing all the eye candy and I'm shocked that once again we have been lead down the garden path it's happened before SO many times yet we never learn, cold block won't move. Well it seems mild always wins .. you couldn't make it up -nao and southern England ends up ..meh

I remember a few years ago all models bar 1 went for cold and snowy and which one do u think one it was a massive flip.. top tip wait till its 24hrs away to get excited 

so many drama queens here .. wait until it happens perhaps or take take your own advise and wait until it’s 24hrs to comment .. this is getting tiresome 

[DOdo]

The ECM is only one output, maybe a wobble maybe not. As much as a coldie I am, its no harm if it becomes mild if only briefly. think of those who will struggle to pay energy bills this winter.

[MAF]

2 minutes ago, jam said:

so many drama queens here .. wait until it happens perhaps or take take your own advise and wait until it’s 24hrs to comment .. this is getting tiresome 

or just stick to the topic  everyone has their own opinions here. however, non-topic posts don't add to the discussion  

[Weather Enthusiast91]

I would like to see a few cold snaps this winter, as well as some snowy days here and there. Every single year regardless on how cold or mild the winter is, there are people struggling to pay their bills. Even the most mild of winters are usually still cold enough for people to have their heating on, particularly those who are vulnerable. So I think that whether we have a cold or a mild winter won't really make that much of a difference. 

I would personally like to have a winter similar to 2020/21, which was quite mixed and had something for everyone. 

Edited December 2, 2022 by Weather Enthusiast91

[Candice Bartley]

34 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

You could always purchase an Official Netweather Model Thread Virtual-Reality Headset (ONWMTVRH)? A bit of a mouthful I know, but it comes with a free Day 10 guarantee. That's valid for as long as you like!

[Froze were the Days]

Oh dear! a few members now hanging their hats on the GFS pub run...it's like an addiction, their on a high but find it so hard to come down (Until 99% of the models says no).

[Guest]

Definitely a moan this one, but I think this cold spell will likely turn-out a bit meh. Pesky short waves look likely to interupt the flow and give the Atlantic an entrance with these large low pressures - which by the way look legitimate considering the temp diff.