Winter 2022/23 - Moans, Ramps & Chat

[LeeKay/]

Hope all links works.

Sums it up sum?

Mad thred at 2:24. - Ripper at 3:03 !

[The Enforcer]

1 hour ago, LeeKay/ said:

Hope all links works.

Sums it up sum?

Mad thred at 2:24. - Ripper at 3:03 !

Ooh I like it

Another one from Jonny L - 1:16 for that moment when a run expected to be a cold outlier turns out to be a mild outlier.

[*Stormforce~beka*]

4 hours ago, KTtom said:

Some stunningly brilliant posts in the other thread tonight...unfortunately you have to be there live as they get deleted after 30 seconds...brutal !

What did I miss??

[Sceptical]

4 hours ago, *Stormforce~beka* said:

What did I miss??

Hissy fits as the snow maniacs looked to apportion blame after a bad model sesh. It got out of control when one of the threads more knowledgeable posters was branded a "waffler". 

[Bald Eagle]

1 hour ago, Sceptical said:

Hissy fits as the snow maniacs looked to apportion blame after a bad model sesh. It got out of control when one of the threads more knowledgeable posters was branded a "waffler". 

[KTtom]

1 hour ago, Sceptical said:

Hissy fits as the snow maniacs looked to apportion blame after a bad model sesh. It got out of control when one of the threads more knowledgeable posters was branded a "waffler". 

I loved the post.. 'Do you actually know what younare talking about!'  

[Sceptical]

Cold and snow upgrades for parts of Scotland overnight. Braemar looks fairly cold with temperatures at, or below freezing, for days. NW Highland could be in the firing line. Suspect weather warnings incoming.

 

[Weather-history]

First air frost of the winter here and the Manchester Winter Index is off

 

Manchester Winter Indices ranked 

2013-14: 7

1988-89: 20

2006-07: 21

1997-98: 25

1974-75: 26

1989-90: 26

2015-16: 28

2021-22: 28

2019-20: 29

1973-74: 30

1987-88: 37

2007-08: 37

2016-17: 37

1991-92: 40

1975-76: 41

1999-00: 42

1992-93: 43

2002-03: 44

1994-95: 45

2018-19: 45

1998-99: 47

2004-05: 47

2011-12: 47

2001-02: 50

2003-04: 50

2005-06: 59

1979-80: 66

1996-97: 72

2000-01: 77

1993-94: 78

1983-84: 82

2014-15: 82

1982-83: 85

1977-78: 90

1980-81: 90

2017-18: 93

1986-87: 100

2012-13: 102

2008-09: 105

2010-11: 119

2020-21: 120

1990-91: 126

1995-96: 135

1984-85: 140

1976-77: 141

1981-82: 149

1985-86: 159

2009-10: 197

1978-79: 262

[Lord Baltimore]

More disappointing output from the models this morning. Had to put heating on for first time this winter as it's a chilly 7c outside. Looking forward to the zonal train returning and daytime temps around 11c. 

[Jamess]

Hi all, I’m fairly new to model watching, and being a Kentish lad, I understand a cold situation is likely however may occur further North so I was wondering, what is the prime location looking like at the minute in terms of snow and significant cold?

Edited December 3, 2022 by Jamess

[Lord Baltimore]

4 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

Why?

Because not everyone likes cold and snow. Give me a euro high with mild southerly winds any day in the winter.

[sundog]

This mornings ECM was like that famous scene in Dallas.  Woke up to the Cold spell still very much alive.  Yesterday evenings ECM must have just been some sort of bad dream lol. 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

BBC weather for week ahead on website, goes with yesterdays 12Z EC, milder from the SW

[WarwickshireLad]

2 hours ago, Weather-history said:

First air frost of the winter here and the Manchester Winter Index is off

 

Manchester Winter Indices ranked 

2013-14: 7

1988-89: 20

2006-07: 21

1997-98: 25

1974-75: 26

1989-90: 26

2015-16: 28

2021-22: 28

2019-20: 29

1973-74: 30

1987-88: 37

2007-08: 37

2016-17: 37

1991-92: 40

1975-76: 41

1999-00: 42

1992-93: 43

2002-03: 44

1994-95: 45

2018-19: 45

1998-99: 47

2004-05: 47

2011-12: 47

2001-02: 50

2003-04: 50

2005-06: 59

1979-80: 66

1996-97: 72

2000-01: 77

1993-94: 78

1983-84: 82

2014-15: 82

1982-83: 85

1977-78: 90

1980-81: 90

2017-18: 93

1986-87: 100

2012-13: 102

2008-09: 105

2010-11: 119

2020-21: 120

1990-91: 126

1995-96: 135

1984-85: 140

1976-77: 141

1981-82: 149

1985-86: 159

2009-10: 197

1978-79: 262

Didn't realize/remember how much of a horror show 13/14 was for lack of cold. Need to go and look back at the notes of that 'winter'

[mb018538]

I remember why I don't post as often in the winter dipping in and out of the model thread over the last week or so. Pure hysteria and wild mood swings hanging off every op run that churns out. Insanity that this just happens year after year.

[E17boy]

[The Forecaster]

6 minutes ago, Lord Baltimore said:

If that pans out might see my first snowflake since 2018

Still to early to call for next Thursday onwards.

Models keeps changing every hour from no snow to lots of snow - North East and Northumberland area.

Will have much more certainty 24-12hrs before.

Current forecast is suggesting a dumping. I’d say that’s optimistic at this early stage. 

 

.

 

[Lampostwatcher]

2 minutes ago, E17boy said:

Looks very cold from Thursday to Monday and snow chances at anytime

[E17boy]

1 minute ago, Lampostwatcher said:

Looks very cold from Thursday to Monday and snow chances at anytime

Yes certainly a turnaround from yesterday and a huge turnaround. From 8 degrees Just goes to show any small changes in this kind of situation can have a bigger effect on what will fall and how the general pattern forms. Certainly feeling bit more upbeat this morning

[E17boy]

[Sceptical]

"Interesting"

 

[Stabilo19]

So the colder northerly air is very much in the reliable time frame now, with it set to flow into Scotland on Tues and clear the South on Wednesday. Looks like we'll have much lower 2m and dew point temps and so the snow risk increases  

This cold spell will also bring London's first frost (unless I missed one), v. late!

Edited December 3, 2022 by Stabilo19

[The Enforcer]

2 hours ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

BBC weather for week ahead on website, goes with yesterdays 12Z EC, milder from the SW

Using old data is standard for them.

[The Enforcer]

15 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

My daughter commented earlier that he weather app kept changing from rain to sleet to snow and back again. Exactly, I thought - no point in looking at the specifics other than for fun. The risk and reward of this game. 

Those apps are useless at such range, given how inaccurate they are at T+0:

This morning T+0 10am forecast: 12% chance of rain. Outcome = rain.

Yesterday evening T+0 7pm forecast 2% chance of rain. Outcome = rain.

Edited December 3, 2022 by The Enforcer

[ChannelThunder]

The back-and-forth from certain models isn't healthy for anyone; mildies or coldies! It seems pretty 50/50 to me on whether the cold stays locked in next weekend, or the Atlantic returns from the southwest with a large and fairly stormy area of low pressure. If the low diverts southwards into France, which is very possible, it's looking great for the coldy club and bad for all of our energy bills...