Winter 2022/23 - Moans, Ramps & Chat

[LetItSnow!]

I’m really happy that we’re shaping up to have a cold spell and potentially quite a cold December, but in terms of statistics, it’s actually quite annoying that the cold is starting now and that 2022 might not go down as having every month above average, though February 2021 taught us that nothing is ever certain. In terms of statistics, it would have been interesting to see an average or mild month and then see the cold kick into January. Everything is way too soon to do anything more than guess but I hope that we can keep this cold weather going into the rest of the winter. It would be great to see some cold anomalies for the opening months of 2023 and I hope it doesn’t run out of steam…

That being said, you’ve got to enjoy it while it’s there.

[WarwickshireLad]

4 hours ago, V for Very Cold said:

I know I’ve only just returned.... but I wish to air my dichotomy this year..... my Meteorological head wants cold and snow and lots of it..... my climate change head wants signs of a proper winter still and my compassionate head wants the mildest winter on record .... how do I square that circle?

or maybe, the answer is I can be happy with all outcomes 

That's my take on whatever weather we have this winter too which makes life much easier as I'm usually as big as a coldie as anyone

[rug]

4 minutes ago, Easton Luna Boys said:

You seriously think that the climate of 4 billion years has changed "massively" in 12 years??? 

Yes. Next question.

[Vikos]

2023 won’t repeat, will be a super mild winter, so enjoy this years cold spell

(/irony-mode off)

[MATTWOLVES 3]

1 minute ago, Vikos said:

2023 won’t repeat, will be a super mild winter, so enjoy this years cold spell

(/irony-mode off)

And here's us lot struggling to get the conditions right for the next few days while you tell us 2023 Winter is a write off!! Never quite that simple sir.

[Vikos]

5 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:

And here's us lot struggling to get the conditions right for the next few days while you tell us 2023 Winter is a write off!! Never quite that simple sir.

Read in context

[sorepaw1]

3 minutes ago, Vikos said:

Read in context

Thanks for the heads up.

[Jackski4]

@Easton Luna Boys

 

We all have to pay our energy bills mate, we don’t all live in our mum or dads basement. 
 

Yes it will be difficult to keep warm and afford heating but the weather will do what it wants anyway, no sense being so miserable about it.

[CSC]

I know this is unrelated and sorry mods but.. I just want to imagine, england win the world cup, its -5 everywhere and snow outside..

Nothing surely would top that. (Sorry mods again!!)

[Nick123]

4 minutes ago, CSC said:

I know this is unrelated and sorry mods but.. I just want to imagine, england win the world cup, its -5 everywhere and snow outside..

Nothing surely would top that. (Sorry mods again!!)

If carlsberg did the weather..

 

[cobbett]

Maybe cold but don't get your hopes up for anything else down south next week

 

[The Enforcer]

27 minutes ago, clark3r said:

I am starting to believe that I will get my snow cover for the first time since 2010. Excited by charts, it is def coming home England

I am starting to believe that I will get my first frost of the 2022/23 season.

13 minutes ago, Jackski4 said:

Cloud cover

Oh wait.

[MP-R]

4 hours ago, Weather Enthusiast91 said:

True. A white Easter seems to be more achieveable these days.

Still waiting for one of these fabled Easters here.

White Christmas is more likely in this part of the world.

[Wold Topper]

2 minutes ago, cobbett said:

Maybe cold but don't get your hopes up for anything else down south next week

 

I live in the North, so all good , NW doesn't just cover the S/East of England thankfully

[Nick123]

Heavy sleet here in lowland Northumberland. 

[emmett garland]

thats early

[Nick123]

1 minute ago, emmett garland said:

thats early

Just goes to show surprises can pop up at short range. Mind you it's not the kind of sleet that you could see turning to snow.

[Weatherman_93]

1 hour ago, cobbett said:

Maybe cold but don't get your hopes up for anything else down south next week

 

Ohh don’t let them hear that in the MOD topic they will have you banned talking like that!

[The Enforcer]

16 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

The GFS has been performing terribly of late coming in 4th place behind ECM, UKMO & GEM. 

At least the 18z seems consistent with the 12z, that's more than we've been able to say for a while.

I dread to think what trying to follow the CFSR/IMD/FNO output would be like - completely different run every time.

1 hour ago, Nick123 said:

Just goes to show surprises can pop up at short range. Mind you it's not the kind of sleet that you could see turning to snow.

Yeah, I've yet to see a sleetman.

[Mapantz]

3 minutes ago, Notty said:

It is odd that the model runs are published with impossible/unprecedented situations. I would have imagined that really silly modelling would be highlighted and reviewed by humans. It is a bit like poor payment systems that send ridiculously high payments out to people. Where is the common sense check?

The data that is shown in model form has to be possible, because it adheres to the laws of physics that are programmed in to the computers. 

Whilst some output remains unlikely, it certainly isn't impossible.

[Notty]

1 minute ago, Mapantz said:

The data that is shown in model form has to be possible, because it adheres to the laws of physics that are programmed in to the computers. 

Whilst some output remains unlikely, it certainly isn't impossible.

Agreed .

I look forward to the outcome. It was only a few months ago that I was singing the praises of the GFS for modelling a deep low well in advance (over seven days) and basically being spot on.

The weather ain’t what it used to be so who knows … GFS forecast 40c in the UK this year and we all raised a brow (I would imagine) and it was correct.

[The Enforcer]

Latest GFS T+120s including a distant 'hurricane':

 

[Wold Topper]

14 minutes ago, The Enforcer said:

Latest GFS T+120s including a distant 'hurricane':

 

Because its hurricane season, not! , GFS been at the kool aid? 

Edited December 3, 2022 by Wold Topper

[The Enforcer]

T+120 Fax chart minus hurricane.

[S Bragg]

To my untrained eye I see pretty good cross-model agreement for a sizeable low to move in in around 10 days' time, signalling the end of any cold weather (maybe temporarily, hopefully) and a reversion to a more typical December weather type.  Over on the model thread, I see nothing but wall-to-wall asserions that the models are basically wrong and that the cold will still be in place.

Am I missing something?  As I said, I have zero knowledge of how these models work and may well be missing something but to me all I see in the mod thread is denial, denial, denial.