Winter 2022/23 - Moans, Ramps & Chat

[Cheshire Freeze]

5 minutes ago, S Bragg said:

To my untrained eye I see pretty good cross-model agreement for a sizeable low to move in in around 10 days' time, signalling the end of any cold weather (maybe temporarily, hopefully) and a reversion to a more typical December weather type.  Over on the model thread, I see nothing but wall-to-wall asserions that the models are basically wrong and that the cold will still be in place.

Am I missing something?  As I said, I have zero knowledge of how these models work and may well be missing something but to me all I see in the mod thread is denial, denial, denial.

I'll chime in on this one.

I've no idea what the weather on the ground will be in 10 days time (and neither does anyone else) but I suspect that even if this cold spell does end in shortish manner, we'll be cold again before the end of the month. 

[sundog]

18 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

I'll chime in on this one.

I've no idea what the weather on the ground will be in 10 days time (and neither does anyone else) but I suspect that even if this cold spell does end in shortish manner, we'll be cold again before the end of the month. 

Or a winter 81/82 scenero.  Where the cold relents  around end of Dec but comes back with a vengeance early jan? Even firstly hits around the same time on December, 8th. I know pattern matching rarely works but something that's been at the back of my mind. 

Edited December 4, 2022 by sundog

[Coastal Eddy]

2 hours ago, The Enforcer said:

T+120 Fax chart minus hurricane.

That is one impressive Fax Chart for cold

 

[cheese]

11 hours ago, V for Very Cold said:

Most people have no real experience of one in the U.K. 

 

 

We had essentially nationwide white Christmases in 2009 & 2010. Anyone over the age of 18 (or thereabouts) should have experienced them (while also being old enough to actually remember them).

Edited December 4, 2022 by cheese

[matt111]

Nice to start a season with it actually feeling like the season it is rather than an extension of the previous season like almost all of autumn seemed to be 

[Row w]

I know it's right out in fi but for a second I thought I was looking at the forecast for Oslo until I realised it was set on my location

[John88B]

It's already been pretty chilly down here the last few days with much colder weather to come.

I'm hoping to see plenty of frost,freezing fog and snow over December but am just happy to see some nice seasonal weather.

The mod thread gets a bit mad sometimes but I just love the enthusiasm of everyone and the indepth analysis of the more knowledgable posters.

Here's to a nice seasonal December and Xmas period with plenty of snowy surprises. 

[cobbett]

So from a dead Atlantic for the foreseeable and a robust block to the first low appearing and the block being pushed aside with ease.  Hilarious really

[Arch Stanton]

And now the Azores high is starting to appear on some charts, we really are in a terrible spot to get sustained cold winter weather, it feels like a million things have to be exactly aligned to have sustained cold, and if one thing falters or back tracks then it all collapses, and then we’re back to our usual winter dross

 

Edited December 4, 2022 by Arch Stanton

[Guest]

Well Well, more runs suggesting this is likely a grey 5 day damp cool squib for most of the UK. The Atlantic overpowers any small cold pool (that is steadily warming) that is forming.

Obvious from the start for those of us with any wisdom. But that's weather for yer!

[jonboy]

Doom and gloom from some this morning. Winter in my book doesn't even start until the equinox on the 21st.

 

I want snow and cold over Xmas and then in Jan and Feb not earlyDecember  

[The Enforcer]

7 hours ago, CreweCold said:

Let's not forget that this set up dumped several CM of snow over the Midlands

Uppers nothing special at all. The LP even gave a couple of CM here at the N extent.

There was a better accumulation here from that than the entire March 2018 BFTE saga.

[S Bragg]

So we'll probably back to our usual Atlantic dross come the middle of the month, surprise surprise.  At least it's cold and seasonal at the moment though, but I think any dreams of a prolonged wintry spell in this country will remain just that.

[V for Very Cold]

As much as I am hooked on the MOD thread this time of year, especially when the cold arrives, I do find that 99% of the discussion goes over my head 

[JoeShmoe]

3 hours ago, DCee said:

Well Well, more runs suggesting this is likely a grey 5 day damp cool squib for most of the UK. The Atlantic overpowers any small cold pool (that is steadily warming) that is forming.

Obvious from the start for those of us with any wisdom. But that's weather for yer!

indeed, a few of the usual suspects setting themselves up for major disappointment snow wise, at least it will feel seasonal and hopefully we get some clear blue skies in any cold northerly, not slate grey muck

[Rich_T]

Very long term lurker , and rare poster on here, but one thing that does seem to repeat is that the models seem to promise the world in terms of a paradise for cold/snow lovers, but then back peddle, before re building the cold - but not as severe.

p.s what happened to Mr Crazy Snowfan?

[Eagle Eye]

My friends are already wearing things to keep them warm meanwhile there's me in my short-sleeved t-shirt,must be the northern genes in me . Even I'll be earing multiple layers on what some of these runs are showing.

[Methuselah]

11 minutes ago, Eagle Eye said:

My friends are already wearing things to keep them warm meanwhile there's me in my short-sleeved t-shirt,must be the northern genes in me . Even I'll be earing multiple layers on what some of these runs are showing.

Are you sure it's nae down to the central heating?

[Metwatch]

15 minutes ago, Eagle Eye said:

My friends are already wearing things to keep them warm meanwhile there's me in my short-sleeved t-shirt,must be the northern genes in me . Even I'll be earing multiple layers on what some of these runs are showing.

Digged out my proper warm winter jacket out ready for the cold season

[icykev]

Just a quick one, met eireann forecast isolated showers in the east for today. It just shows how difficult it is to pick up these showers/ organised intense convergence lines off a brisk easterly with warm seas. Wish it was a couple of days later as it would have been heavy snow! Plenty to look forward to imo

!!

Condolences man@sheikhy❤

 

[Bald Eagle]

I've just returned from a brief perusal of the crazy thread. I read things like " falling on sword" and " childish behaviour" What has happened? Has there been a squabble? Has someone realised its an algorithm?

[Bradley in Kent]

8 minutes ago, Bald Eagle said:

I've just returned from a brief perusal of the crazy thread. I read things like " falling on sword" and " childish behaviour" What has happened? Has there been a squabble? Has someone realised its an algorithm?

Emotion very much comes into play, especially in Winter when coldies are led up a garden path!

Chasing Summer heat is a lot more relaxing and straightforward than snow, which is getting harder and harder by the year. 

[Mapantz]

Today is officially the dullest day I've recorded on this weather station. Max solar radiation was 33 Wm² - pretty grim.

[Guest]

6 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

Today is officially the dullest day I've recorded on this weather station. Max solar radiation was 33 Wm² - pretty grim.

Mapantz, when do you normally measure the max? Is it April when ambient air temps are taken into account?

[Mapantz]

6 minutes ago, DCee said:

Mapantz, when do you normally measure the max? Is it April when ambient air temps are taken into account?

There's no specific date or temperature  for solar radiation to be measured. It's sending data every 60 seconds or thereabouts, so it's giving me daily, monthly and yearly highs.  

Here's today's chart:

If you go to my site you can select "Solar Rad"  and have a gander at it.  

Edited December 4, 2022 by Mapantz