Winter 2022/23 - Moans, Ramps & Chat

[cyclonic happiness]

The whole setup at the minute looks great, but we do have to be cautious and not throw tantrums when the charts don't show Narnia.

This wobbling has ALWAYS happened and ALWAYS will, it's just part of model watching, and we have to take the rough with with the smooth.

One thing is almost certain, we are going to have a decent cold spell, and we'll get a whole lot more snow than last year, because in my location, we had ZERO snow.......and that is something to whinge about, not what the models are showing.

So, keep your chins up and your toys in your prams

[Seasonal Trim]

Nothing like the smell of schadenfreude in the morning. Love the MOD thread. Long may it continue. 

[Scorcher]

I'm amazed by the number of leaves still on the trees on December 1st- definitely the most I can ever remember. Some larger trees almost fully in leaf still despite the leaves now yellowing. Even some green leaves still left on deciduous trees.

Normally I can clear my lawn of leaves by the middle of November but they're still falling and the lawn is covered again.

The weather may have gone colder now but the soil temperature is still very high for the time of year I believe- hence the very late leaf fall.

[Froze were the Days]

ECM det medium term outlook spells low pressure taking over from the south or south east...looks like a good ol' spell of cold rain.

[johncam]

20 hours ago, Summer8906 said:

Does look more like a forecast for a cyclonic northerly or NE-ly setup in March or November, rather than winter. I suspect such a setup would have produced widespread snow back in the 80s.

Your correct , the 80's had a lot more sea ice about even this early in the season and it lasted a lot longer into summer 

[ptow]

17 hours ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Not bad here, but far from great, especially when SK4 got buried

34.5 cm's for me in Reading

[MP-R]

And so ends autumn 2022, and begins winter 2022.

Not the most exciting autumn it has to be said, but a few things I will remember are:

September 05th - huge tropical-style thunderstorm in the evening; best of the year

Mid-October - weird summery feel to the weather despite weak sunshine and shorter days; the plume-esque weather that brought thunder on the 19th, and the torrential rain on the 23rd

November 12th/13th - Rememberance weekend glorious sunshine and relative warmth. However unusual it was, it was gorgeous.

Of note, but which may fade into the background is how cold the 29th November was. With a maximum of 02.8C it was the coldest November high since 30th November 2016, and before that November 2010.

Despite the frequent rain from mid October onwards, October was a sunny month (30 hours sunnier than September), and November was sunnier than average, although not by much.

[Weather Enthusiast91]

So that's autumn out of the way for another year, and now it's time to say hello to winter again.

September has been my favourite autumn month this year as it had the most variety, including some thunderstorms early in the month which summer failed to deliver. That month also provided us with some much needed rainfall which heralded the beginning of the end of the drought for many areas. October was the best month for sunshine and provided my neck of the woods with a mostly settled first half followed by a mostly unsettled second half which continued into the majority of November. Despite November being mild for much of the time (particularly during the first half), it was a predominently unsettled month.

I think it's fair to say that the drought is well and truly behind us now.

[Weatherman_93]

So lots on mentions over in the MOD topic in regards to 2010, snow etc. Although not impossible i don't see it yet. BBC weather is usually pretty reliable.

 

[joggs]

Not a bad update again from Exeter.

Sounds like lows to the south and HP NW. Slider anyone? 

Edited December 1, 2022 by joggs

[S Bragg]

Winter getting off to a decent start for me, cold and dry.  It's certainly preferable (in my POV) to the Atlantic-dominated weather that seems so common in December most years.

[sheikhy]

Just now, bluearmy said:

The control and mean by day 6 aren’t very changed from the 00z run. 
 

mean slp is dropped south by around 75 miles which reflects the nw French low being closer -  there are positives and negatives but nothing more than expected inter run small swings.
 

another few hours of squeaky bum time ensues ….. 

 

Nervous moments approaching!!im gona try to be positive and say it will take things slighty further east!!!

[Frosty.]

All the emotion in here reminds me of a song! .. life is a rollercoaster just gotta ride it! …anyway, enough small talk!…I’m confident it’s going to gradually turn much colder with an increasing risk of snow! …yes, I’ve just seen the 6z! ️  

[johncam]

Met have dropped snow on low ground from latest update 

[RJBingham]

11 minutes ago, johncam said:

Met have dropped snow on low ground from latest update 

Stay away from the MAD thread then 

[iceman1991]

12 minutes ago, johncam said:

Met have dropped snow on low ground from latest update 

Yeah I was about to write this but not good atall 

Edited December 1, 2022 by iceman1991

[Dami]

December is the one month i want snow, one furry Christmas Eve, sorted.

Having a nose in the MAD thread is certainly a roller coaster, for sure.

Edited December 1, 2022 by Dami

[Puddy Galore]

1 hour ago, Dami said:

December is the one month i want snow, one furry Christmas Eve, sorted.

Having a nose in the MAD thread is certainly a roller coaster, for sure.

I am struggling to keep up with the pace in there  I just hone in to see what specific long time posters are saying when the thread gets so busy, usually posters who always seem to know where they are at with regards to reading the models and translating it into a simple enough language I can follow. 

Edited December 1, 2022 by Snowycat

[Dami]

1 hour ago, Snowycat said:

I am struggling to keep up with the pace in there  I just hone in to see what specific long time posters are saying when the thread gets so busy, usually posters who always seem to know where they are at with regards to reading the models and translating it into a simple enough language I can follow. 

I would love to know what those charts mean  but what was interesting to me was them talking about an event which happened late in the 70's on New years eve, I can remember  coming out of a panto ( which we did every year when i was young) and  coming out to snow. Only happened once and it was always the gold standard, but it never happened again. I am yet to ever see falling snow at christmas (24/25) but can remember snow in kent in the 80's (?)

Edited December 1, 2022 by Dami

[Puddy Galore]

51 minutes ago, Dami said:

I would love to know what those charts mean  but what was interesting to me was them talking about an event which happened late in the 70's on New years eve, I can remember  coming out of a panto ( which we did every year when i was young) and  coming out to snow. Only happened once and it was always the gold standard, but it never happened again. I am yet to ever see falling snow at christmas (24/25) but can remember snow in kent in the 80's (?)

I can understand some aspects of it all but nowhere near enough at all.  I have tried reading up on meteorological phenomena but do find that perhaps not having a grounding in basic physics seems to hamper a better understanding and I soon get lost!  All girls church school in the 1970 - physics didn’t seem to be on the curriculum.  

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Totally off topic.  If you are a Christmas Turkey person….please order/get then in now…..there is a sizeable shortage this year.

 

BFTP…..sorry mods…please allow to be read then move it

[Dami]

5 minutes ago, Snowycat said:

I can understand some aspects of it all but nowhere near enough at all.  I have tried reading up on meteorological phenomena but do find that perhaps not having a grounding in basic physics seems to hamper a better understanding and I soon get lost!  All girls church school in the 1970 - physics didn’t seem to be on the curriculum.  

i did physics GCSE, got a C. Found it interesting. Teacher thought in was going to fail.

[LetItSnow!]

In my dreams this is a start of a shift in our climate going forward and the reintroduction to colder winters and more unusual cold snaps in other times of the year like people have been banging on about for the past five years. What’s that you say? Wake up?

 

It would certainly be funny if a chain of colder months were to start in time for the start of 2023. I’m reminded of 1921 and 1922, two years with a difference in their average of 2C!

 

All this relies entirely upon not being under balmy southwesterly winds in a months time  

[iceman1991]

Brian gaze from weather outlook going for cold winter very interesting read say if this cold gets going in dec will highly likely carry on all through January to exiting times I highly rate him to on the ball with his forecast 

[joggs]

We could get a Stella winter again.....

Could this not be up there with 62/63 ,78/79,86/87 ect.

It's less likely but.........

Models mightn't have a clue in a very rare event?!?!.

Equally, a few weeks of cold then could go totally mild ..

That's the beauty of weather