Winter 2022/23 - Moans, Ramps & Chat

[knocker]

I have a feeling that the ec weeklies update in a minute will be a stonker

[knocker]

5 hours ago, *Stormforce~beka* said:

I'm bored of looking at the MAD thread now. I enter and scroll down not understanding a thing as most posts are about sst's and goodness knows what else that isn't model related. That complicating stuff really needs a thread of it's own!

After a quick run through the posts the quote that flashed through my mind was, "Other than that, how was the play, Mrs. Lincoln?". I know not why

[Met.]

Can't wait for spring to start!

[alexisj9]

1 hour ago, knocker said:

I have a feeling that the ec weeklies update in a minute will be a stonker

I think so to, people have been warned not to pay to much attention to the mid and long term due to strat stuff possibly making models volatile, but still they get upset by fl, there's every chance it's right of course, but an equal chance it is not. I still think we might see a very short term change, caused by the Atlantic being held back more than it looks like, the cold has already been extended slightly, and the warm bump keeps getting smaller and smaller in the SE. So I'm not even thinking Monday Tuesday are 100%. They look it but it really does depend on what happens with the fronts coming against what we have now.

Edited January 19, 2023 by alexisj9

[RJBingham]

1 hour ago, knocker said:

I have a feeling that the ec weeklies update in a minute will be a stonker

Excuse me Knocker, but "feelings" about the upcoming weather belong in the MOD thread 

[knocker]

6 minutes ago, RJBingham said:

Excuse me Knocker, but "feelings" about the upcoming weather belong in the MOD thread 

My humblest apologies but I'm persona non grata over there. Mind it is a stonker

Edited January 19, 2023 by knocker

[Weather Enthusiast91]

Just like others, once we get to mid March I lose interest in the cold and start looking for spring warmth. In the meantime though, I am happy for these current conditions to continue along with a snowfall or two.

[Northwest NI]

4 hours ago, Cambrian said:

We have about 3-4 inches of snow lying here this afternoon, more on the higher ground around, about 6 inches at around 1000ft and 8 inches around 1200ft, built up over the last 3 days. It’s the 8th day with falling snow and the 14th day with lying snow so far this winter. It’s a nice benchmark reached as in a normal good winter we typically talk of 2-3 weeks of lying snow (when all added up), more in a really good winter. Then we get winters like the last one, where we struggled for any settling snow at all.

Yesterday evening and overnight was interesting, the temperature slowly rose during the day to +1, there had been occasional showers all day, but it turned misty and there was a period of persistent light snow in the evening, settled a further half inch by 10 pm and another inch by morning. It stayed around 1 degree until 10pm but kept snowing, it felt like a small warm sector, but kept snowing through it. Temperature dropped away to freezing by midnight and down to -3 by morning. 

Just above freezing at the farm this afternoon, but because the humidity is a tad lower and because we had a -5.5 degree frost the night before the snow fell, there is not the slightest thaw, as indeed there wasn’t all through yesterday either. There’s been a couple of snow or soft hail showers, but a beautiful day besides. It has fallen very calm so I’m expecting a hard “snowfield” frost tonight. 

Here are some photos from my walk this afternoon. The first is a view of the dell, and the second and third are of some of the surrounding tops. I think that those are fox footprints in the middle one. Plenty of shower activity still around, none of it shown on the radars, not for where we are today at least. The wonders of the Irish Sea and the beautiful Cardigan Bay once it’s got stirred up!

  

If you have some snow, enjoy it. If not, enjoy the rest of a lovely winter’s day. I’ve really enjoyed parts of this winter so far, even though we’ve had to endure some extended periods of very wet weather, and no doubt will have to again, there have been some really good days too, and what is often the most interesting part of the winter is still to come. The little bit more light in the afternoons is very welcome too. 

Great pictures! Remarkably similar to landscape round here

[*Stormforce~beka*]

3 hours ago, Ed Stone said:

Oh, come on, Beka, you know it's coming... Has there ever been a UK winter in which an SSW hasn't been over-ramped? We could of course see a 'perfect' SSW only for it to be scuppered, at the last minute, by a rogue sunspot!?

But of course, there's a chance; and a chance is always better than no chance?

I still don't understand a damn thing. I don't know what a ssw is or a damn sun spot!!

[alexisj9]

30 minutes ago, *Stormforce~beka* said:

I still don't understand a damn thing. I don't know what a ssw is or a damn sun spot!!

The sun spot is the spots the sun get that can send a coronal mass ejection our way, cause nice northern lights, but I doubt they effect the weather in any way. An SSW doesn't interest me in any way, it can effect the weather lower down, where our highs and lows end up, sometimes good sometimes bad. I don't bother with that side of things. More important is what the sea level pressures are, and sometimes the 850s, things mostly posted in the model thread. A technical SSW is a storng warming of the strat, that the highest part of the polar vortex very basic, which causes it to split and reverse from moving westerly, anti clockwise to easterly, clockwise, which can sometime come down to the lower section, troposphere, where we can see the lows and highs in the charts, and cause an easterly. I think it does get to much attention, in the model thread, but some look into to SSW to forecast cold, so post what it's doing. 

Edited January 19, 2023 by alexisj9

[The Enforcer]

Another cold spell with surprise snowfalls?

There's no snowfall. That is the surprise.

[alexisj9]

2 minutes ago, The Enforcer said:

Another cold spell with surprise snowfalls?

There's no snowfall. That is the surprise.

Not everyone can say there's been no snow, and that includes Cornwall on this one, we've just been unlucky, so far.

[knocker]

8 hours ago, *Stormforce~beka* said:

I still don't understand a damn thing. I don't know what a ssw is or a damn sun spot!!

Sun spot is the pseudonym for red herring in here.

[johncam]

Latest output is crap , think it is now just  dawning in mod thread that there ain't gonna be no Scandi high or greeny high coming to the rescue , another snowless winter for me looks on the cards 

[Rob 79812010]

11 minutes ago, johncam said:

Latest output is crap , think it is now just  dawning in mod thread that there ain't gonna be no Scandi high or greeny high coming to the rescue , another snowless winter for me looks on the cards 

I guess all this depends on where you live. We've had 3 years of snowfall now in Manchester and they've all been pretty good. Snowed  4 separate times early 2021. I remember some long snowless periods in first half of 70's. Even though 80s were cold we usually missed out bar the epic 81/82 So not all bad!!!

[alexisj9]

12 minutes ago, Rob 79812010 said:

I guess all this depends on where you live. We've had 3 years of snowfall now in Manchester and they've all been pretty good. Snowed  4 separate times early 2021. I remember some long snowless periods in first half of 70's. Even though 80s were cold we usually missed out bar the epic 81/82 So not all bad!!!

Plus the 850s are not telling the full story, dry and chilly is an option for many of the high charts at the minute. All it would take is a slight move north or west and ppn with the possibility of snow can turn up, ground temps will already be cold, so no need to wait for the cold to get in like with this spell.

[johncam]

9 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

Plus the 850s are not telling the full story, dry and chilly is an option for many of the high charts at the minute. All it would take is a slight move north or west and ppn with the possibility of snow can turn up, ground temps will already be cold, so no need to wait for the cold to get in like with this spell.

No cold weather forecast going forward for us ,  we have 12c on Tuesday forecast,  not everyone stays in the SE

[alexisj9]

2 minutes ago, johncam said:

No cold weather forecast going forward for us ,  we have 12c on Tuesday forecast,  not everyone stays in the SE

That is true, but I'm more on about later when the meto has the high centered over us a few days later, or the others have a general north easterly. Then all will be cold at the surface, or colder than when the southwesterlys of a few days before are around. 

[johncam]

31 minutes ago, Rob 79812010 said:

I guess all this depends on where you live. We've had 3 years of snowfall now in Manchester and they've all been pretty good. Snowed  4 separate times early 2021. I remember some long snowless periods in first half of 70's. Even though 80s were cold we usually missed out bar the epic 81/82 So not all bad!!!

Would say at least half of country seen heehaw snow up to now 

Just now, alexisj9 said:

That is true, but I'm more on about later when the meto has the high centered over us a few days later, or the others have a general north easterly. Then all will be cold at the surface, or colder than when the southwesterlys of a few days before are around. 

True enough 

[al78]

12 hours ago, The Enforcer said:

Another cold spell with surprise snowfalls?

There's no snowfall. That is the surprise.

Absolutely no surprise here in W Sussex. It takes a mega Arctic blast to get any significant snow down here and a few days of dry northerlies isn't that.

[Weather-history]

Sunspots, La Ninas etc

Interestingly, the moderate La Ninas of 1955-56,  2011-12,  2020-21 had cold spells that came in from the east to varying lengths and intensities. February 1956 was sub zero for the CET

[Mike Machin]

For those who dream of epic snowfall and a 'real winter' I would say, never give up! 

An account of the 1978 Great Blizzard across the south of England was published by Dorset Life in 2008:

The blizzard that buried Dorset | Dorset Life - The Dorset Magazine

WWW.DORSETLIFE.CO.UK

 

This was in mid-February in an otherwise 'normal' winter. Keep smiling

 

Edited January 20, 2023 by Mike Machin

[Sunny76]

We can’t write off winter for at least another 6-7 weeks. Still a long way to go.

[Methuselah]

I've largely given up on the MAD thread, as it's full of IMBYs, moans, gripes and wishful-thinking just now... But the Model Highlights thread is godsend!

[Dark Horse]

Yeah I never go in the model thread. There's very good knowledgable posters in there but they are often drowned out by doom monger posts that say it's never going to be cold again until next year blah blah blah. Usually the same suspects that said there wasn't going to be any cold in January and it was looking totally Atlantic dominated. Well it's been sunny today and some of us have had at least some snow over the last few days and it's a bit chilly at the moment. Much better than wind and rain and 11c