Winter 2022/23 - Moans, Ramps & Chat

[Summer8906]

A brilliant spell of weather for the past 7 days, with large amounts of sunshine and only light cloud. Also 7 consecutive frosts from the 16th-22nd, following 4 weeks without any.

Sadly it had to end at some point and that's today. Dull with no frost. At least it's still cold for now - I'm really hoping there isn't a quick return to very mild just yet, to prevent nature getting ahead of itself.

Very reminiscent of this time last year, in the sense that frosty weather gave way to cold and cloudy around now, and then it became mild, then mild and wet, and finally stormy - though there isn't so much indication of a return to very mild weather, or wet weather in the models yet, at least not in the south. Obviously the first half of January this year was much wetter than last year though!

Edited January 24, 2023 by Summer8906

[Man With Beard]

2 hours ago, Summer8906 said:

A brilliant spell of weather for the past 7 days, with large amounts of sunshine and only light cloud. Also 7 consecutive frosts from the 16th-22nd, following 4 weeks without any.

Sadly it had to end at some point and that's today. Dull with no frost. At least it's still cold for now - I'm really hoping there isn't a quick return to very mild just yet, to prevent nature getting ahead of itself.

Very reminiscent of this time last year, in the sense that frosty weather gave way to cold and cloudy around now, and then it became mild, then mild and wet, and finally stormy - though there isn't so much indication of a return to very mild weather, or wet weather in the models yet, at least not in the south. Obviously the first half of January this year was much wetter than last year though!

You've answered a question I was wondering - for those just as happy with cold as snow, the past week must have been a dream if you live in southern/central areas. It is extremely rare to get minus 5C or lower on so many consecutive nights close to the south coast (I'm just 3 miles from the sea). This morning at 3C felt positively mild!

 

There was an interesting discussion on the CET thread last week, about how the number of sub zero CET days is not that different to 2009/2010 winters - showing how the cold spells have been really cold!

[Methuselah]

Well, it's been a pretty nasty winter down here, though not for everyone: the energy cartel will be ecstatic at all the overnight frosts and subdued daytime maxima... But, looking on the bright side, we're had more snow than we had last winter -- it must've lasted for half an hour!

And -- I think I saw an on-topic post in the MAD thread this morning!

[Weather Enthusiast91]

It's still sunny over here, but looks like that will end tomorrow when anticyclonic gloom creeps in.

I think January will end up being around average in terms of both temp and rainfall (though may be above for rainfall in some areas). If not for this cold spell it would have no doubt ended up being above average temp wise.

Edited January 24, 2023 by Weather Enthusiast91

[alexisj9]

16 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Well, it's been a pretty nasty winter down here, though not for everyone: the energy cartel will be ecstatic at all the overnight frosts and subdued daytime maxima... But, looking on the bright side, we're had more snow than we had last winter -- it must've lasted for half an hour!

And -- I think I saw an on-topic post in the MAD thread this morning!

Yep, looks like another pm shot lining up in fl. So I'm not paying attention to it yet. Very strong pv, so it could pack a colder punch than people think.

[Summer8906]

Perhaps some similarities to January 1998 in the sense that the first half was very mild and wet, and the final two weeks bone-dry, and average-to-cold.

1998 was generally a poor year for weather though, so wouldn't be keen for the similarity to continue for too long!

[TheOgre]

This upcoming week could be copy of January 2022: temperatures around average, dry and frostier in the south. It turns out I was correct for my January 2023 prediction:

“January: mixed and average, mild and wet spells with cold and frosty spells thrown in. Perhaps a light snowfall or two.”

[johncam]

Latest output not very inspiring at all, roll on spring 

[Methuselah]

19 minutes ago, johncam said:

Latest output not very inspiring at all, roll on spring 

Spring would certainly put the brakes on the burgeoning 'disagreements' in the Mutually Assured Destruction thread... We get the Greatest SSW of All-Time, or we don't get the Greatest SSW of All-Time? Handbags at twenty-paces won't change a thing... It's the weather, it doesn't give a stuff about what any of us think! Has everyone forgotten 2019?

[cheeky_monkey]

22 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Has everyone forgotten 2019?

Obviously..so what did happen in 2019?? 

[Snowyowl9]

1 hour ago, johncam said:

Latest output not very inspiring at all, roll on spring 

What spring 1999 heavy april snowfalls 2 of them heaviest snowfalls of the winter by far,same goes for april 2000.

Spring 2006 very cold first 2/3  March..

Spring 2013 that record cold spell and record snowfall came at a time I ve never seen before unprecidented..

Spring 2018 THE BEAST FROM THE EAST...say no more exceptional..

[johncam]

1 minute ago, Snowyowl9 said:

What spring 1999 heavy april snowfalls 2 of them heaviest snowfalls of the winter by far,same goes for april 2000.

Spring 2006 very cold first 2/3  March..

Spring 2013 that record cold spell and record snowfall came at a time I ve never seen before unprecidented..

Spring 2018 THE BEAST FROM THE EAST...say no more exceptional..

Let's be honest though the exception rather the rule 

[Snowyowl9]

14 minutes ago, johncam said:

Let's be honest though the exception rather the rule 

Last 3 out of 4 aprils have given us a modest 3 inches of snow still except for 2021 winter last day of january did give 4 inches and a blizzard but it was a bit damp underneath..April seems to deliver,so its late february and Marche s turn to bring the heaviest snowfall of the winter this year,its overdue..

[johncam]

1 minute ago, Snowyowl9 said:

Last 3 out of 4 aprils have given us a modest 3 inches of snow still except for 2021 winter last day of january did give 4 inches and a blizzard but it was a bit damp underneath..April seems to deliver,so its late february and Marche s turn to bring the heaviest snowfall of the winter this year,its overdue..

Haven't had any snow in april last 14 years , last time 2009 , are you high up ?

[Dark Horse]

10 minutes ago, johncam said:

Haven't had any snow in april last 14 years , last time 2009 , are you high up ?

Wow 14 years?? Had a bit of snow cover here on 10th April 2021. See below. 2 in that month actually. I had some at the back end of April in 2016 as well where I used to live, woke up to a light covering. Gone by late morning though. Snow in April isn't that unusual here really. Seen it plenty of times.

 

 

[Don]

4 hours ago, johncam said:

Haven't had any snow in april last 14 years , last time 2009 , are you high up ?

I'm starting to think your location is even worse than Shrewsbury for snow?!  

5 hours ago, cheeky_monkey said:

Obviously..so what did happen in 2019?? 

A SSW failed to deliver the goods (of the cold and snow variety)!!

[Penrith Snow]

Since the start of Netweather so many buzz words or phases have burst on the scene MOJ, SSW, MMA and my favourite Mountain Torque I have studied Meteorology for 5 decades and only recently have all these things appeared.

They are like snake oil salesmen full of promises that they can forecast the future with these clever ‘Background Signals’ I am convinced it’s all boll*cks, made up half the time to make some people sound clever.

Back in the 60’s we only had one acronym BDC, bloody damn cold!

Andy

[MP-R]

5 hours ago, Snowyowl9 said:

What spring 1999 heavy april snowfalls 2 of them heaviest snowfalls of the winter by far,same goes for april 2000.

Spring 2006 very cold first 2/3  March..

Spring 2013 that record cold spell and record snowfall came at a time I ve never seen before unprecidented..

Spring 2018 THE BEAST FROM THE EAST...say no more exceptional..

April 1999 was the last heavy April snowfall imby. Just shows how April really isn’t a month to expect meaningful snow. First half of March however… much more likely, although doesn’t often stick around long and can be marginal.

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

1 hour ago, Penrith Snow said:

Since the start of Netweather so many buzz words or phases have burst on the scene MOJ, SSW, MMA and my favourite Mountain Torque I have studied Meteorology for 5 decades and only recently have all these things appeared.

They are like snake oil salesmen full of promises that they can forecast the future with these clever ‘Background Signals’ I am convinced it’s all boll*cks, made up half the time to make some people sound clever.

Back in the 60’s we only had one acronym BDC, bloody damn cold!

Andy

The teleconnections MJO,EAMT events,AAM, Rossby Waves etc are far from "boll*cks" or made up as you describe them. I recommend this explanation covering most, one of the best available. 

What are teleconnections? Connecting Earth's climate patterns via global information superhighways | NOAA Climate.gov

WWW.CLIMATE.GOV

---

Two guest bloggers explain how Rossby waves create a globe-spanning superhighway that connects climate patterns even when they are far apart.

 

[RJBingham]

So, the incantations have failed to summon an SSW, what next, trawling the records to find historic late winter cold spells, will that be enough to call forth the blizzards?

[KTtom]

6 hours ago, Penrith Snow said:

Since the start of Netweather so many buzz words or phases have burst on the scene MOJ, SSW, MMA and my favourite Mountain Torque I have studied Meteorology for 5 decades and only recently have all these things appeared.

They are like snake oil salesmen full of promises that they can forecast the future with these clever ‘Background Signals’ I am convinced it’s all boll*cks, made up half the time to make some people sound clever.

Back in the 60’s we only had one acronym BDC, bloody damn cold!

Andy

They obviously exist, but what effect in isolation they have on our weather is very much up for debate...like life in general, experiance is the most important tool you can have when predicting the weather. Ive been studying charts for 15 years and using my experiance  from past events and the default pattern of what is likely to happen next from a specific chart has proven far more  accurate than some warm pool of water in the Pacific.

[Weather-history]

11 hours ago, johncam said:

Haven't had any snow in april last 14 years , last time 2009 , are you high up ?

Snow during April has  decreased since 2000 and markedly so since 2010

No doubt come near Easter that old chestnut "more likely to see snow at Easter than Christmas" will be trotted out again but for my area and stats going back to 1985, its just not true.

Since 1985

White Christmases: 1993, 1995, 1999, 2000, 2004, 2020

White Easters (Easter Day): 1998, 2008

Lying snow on Christmas Day: 1995, 2004, 2009, 2010

Lying snow on Easter Day: 0

Snow falling during Christmas period (24th-26th):  1993, 1995, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2004, 2014, 2020

Lying snow during Christmas period (24th-26th): 1995, 2004, 2009, 2010, 2014

Falling snow during Easter period (Good Friday-Easter Monday): 1994, 1998, 2008

Lying snow during Easter period (Good Friday-Easter Monday): 1998 (evening of Easter Monday)

Although the stats only go back to 1985, Christmas is clearly ahead of Easter in the snow stakes, so I can extend further back into time with confidence and still say Christmas is ahead of Easter as regards to snow. In the last 50 years, there have been more White Christmas than White Easters, I can say with great confidence. 

 

[Robbie Coldrain]

Living in a low lying area down south. I know that realistically for me there is only 3 weeks left for a long lasting snow event, which I class as a week or more of deep cold with snow on the ground. Once we get to mid Feb we can still get a cold snap, 2-3 days with some snow, but due to the sun's height any snow soon starts to melt, if it settles at all.

I'm glad we saw that cold spell in December where the snow stayed on the ground for about a week, but once we get to mid Feb my thoughts turn to the first 70F of the year.   

Edited January 25, 2023 by Robbie Coldrain

[keithlucky]

Mohe, in China set a new record of Coldest temperatures -53c ever recorded.

[Snowyowl9]

13 hours ago, johncam said:

Haven't had any snow in april last 14 years , last time 2009 , are you high up ?

Even shrewsbury had snow last few aprils..which  it all depends of wind direction...NWly much more favourable during spring..

9 inches of snow blizzard 2012 so that was similar to 2000 9 inches of snow blizzard blocked roads huge drifts..

April just seems to of done well last quite few years actually..

Edited January 25, 2023 by Snowyowl9