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Winter 2022/23 - Moans, Ramps & Chat


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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
2 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

is oxfordshire likely to be in firing line or not,judging by the models?

Thurs and Fri morning 

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Posted
  • Location: Godalming
  • Location: Godalming
3 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

is oxfordshire likely to be in firing line or not,judging by the models?

The highest risk from frontal snow midweek is from a line from Bristol to Maidstone, southwards.  
 

oxford may well get some back edge sleet and snow over night Monday / Tuesday temps on Tuesday will determine if it thaws or not. 

Edited by DAVE_ALLEN
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Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow Snow and more Snow!
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
Just now, Updated_Weather said:

And also a level 3 cold weather alert until Thursday!👀❄️

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MetO always keep their powder dry but when they light it...

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Posted
  • Location: Abingdon - 55m ASL - Capital of The Central Southern England Corridor of Winter Convectionlessness
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Snow>Freezing Fog; Summer: Sun>Daytime Storms
  • Location: Abingdon - 55m ASL - Capital of The Central Southern England Corridor of Winter Convectionlessness
7 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:

Why would it be wrong? With all the computer power they have it must be the likeliest scenario....

I am sure you have noticed the model volatility and UKMO is no exception to this. It would be no surprise to see both today's 12z and tomorrow's 00z outputs look different, prompting adjustments to the warning areas.

4 hours ago, snowking said:

Just to put this into context, this means that the entirety of the ECMWF Ens suite will be higher in horizontal resolution than any operational run from any other medium range suite. And we now get access to the lot. There's more to it than just horizontal resolution but in effect we'll have an additional 50 deterministic runs to mull over. Weather nerds assemble.

Oh good even more spaghetti on the charts to untangle.

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Posted
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury
  • Weather Preferences: Enjoy the weather, you can't take it with you 😎
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury
19 minutes ago, The Enforcer said:

I am sure you have noticed the model volatility and UKMO is no exception to this. It would be no surprise to see both today's 12z and tomorrow's 00z outputs look different, prompting adjustments to the warning areas.

Oh good even more spaghetti on the charts to untangle.

I did say the Likeliest scenario......did not say it was 100% verification! 

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Posted
  • Location: Abingdon - 55m ASL - Capital of The Central Southern England Corridor of Winter Convectionlessness
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Snow>Freezing Fog; Summer: Sun>Daytime Storms
  • Location: Abingdon - 55m ASL - Capital of The Central Southern England Corridor of Winter Convectionlessness
1 minute ago, ANYWEATHER said:

I did say the Likeliest scenario......did not say it was 100% verification! 

Interesting question: at what % verification does a model become wrong?

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Posted
  • Location: Devon
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Wind, Sunny, Warm, Thunderstorms, Snow
  • Location: Devon

Anyone else looking forward to the first taste of warm weather, the latest gfs has it pretty cold/cool for the next 2 weeks, I guess thanks to the SSW!  Hope we don't have to wait for April, I have just got a lot of new young plants, hoping the cold doesn't damage them. 

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Posted
  • Location: Andover, Hampshire
  • Location: Andover, Hampshire
38 minutes ago, TwisterGirl81 said:

Anyone else looking forward to the first taste of warm weather, the latest gfs has it pretty cold/cool for the next 2 weeks, I guess thanks to the SSW!  Hope we don't have to wait for April, I have just got a lot of new young plants, hoping the cold doesn't damage them. 

Yes and April is being optimistic.

Sadly seems the new norm

Autumn from October to February, then winter from March until May before summer in June, July and August (sometimes extending into September) 

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Posted
  • Location: Abingdon - 55m ASL - Capital of The Central Southern England Corridor of Winter Convectionlessness
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Snow>Freezing Fog; Summer: Sun>Daytime Storms
  • Location: Abingdon - 55m ASL - Capital of The Central Southern England Corridor of Winter Convectionlessness

"This will come down to radar watching"

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Posted
  • Location: Devon
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Wind, Sunny, Warm, Thunderstorms, Snow
  • Location: Devon
24 minutes ago, Azazel said:

Yes and April is being optimistic.

Sadly seems the new norm

Autumn from October to February, then winter from March until May before summer in June, July and August (sometimes extending into September) 

Yes Sod’s Law that some will see the first proper snow fall in spring 🤦🏻‍♀️ i

Personally it usually misses us in Exeter and forms to snow further east and I’m hoping it does the same this time but if it does snow it’ll be nice just hope it goes as quickly as it came and warm weather arrives.

The only consolation seems to be that most of Europe bar the most southern areas looks like being put in the refrigerator the next week or so  

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
27 minutes ago, TwisterGirl81 said:

Yes Sod’s Law that some will see the first proper snow fall in spring 🤦🏻‍♀️ i

Personally it usually misses us in Exeter and forms to snow further east and I’m hoping it does the same this time but if it does snow it’ll be nice just hope it goes as quickly as it came and warm weather arrives.

The only consolation seems to be that most of Europe bar the most southern areas looks like being put in the refrigerator the next week or so  

Once upon a time, I'd have called that 'Sod's law' too, TG -- but it happens more often than not, these days! ☹️

Being very near the North Sea coast makes it all the sadder. Until Xmas, the SSTs are too warm, with rain and sleet falling in synoptic situations that might once have been expected to produce snow. Could we do with a cooler and less sunny summer, this time? 🤔

Edited by Methuselah
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Posted
  • Location: Devon
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Wind, Sunny, Warm, Thunderstorms, Snow
  • Location: Devon
1 hour ago, Methuselah said:

Once upon a time, I'd have called that 'Sod's law' too, TG -- but it happens more often than not, these days! ☹️

Being very near the North Sea coast makes it all the sadder. Until Xmas, the SSTs are too warm, with rain and sleet falling in synoptic situations that might once have been expected to produce snow. Could we do with a cooler and less sunny summer, this time? 🤔

Hope you see snow ❄️ 

A summer like last year will do just fine, luckily in the south west we we spared the 100 degree weather, lower 90’s was warm enough, it could be 75 degrees all summer, full sun with the odd overnight thunderstorm and rain would do me fine, fingers crossed 🤞 

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Posted
  • Location: Global citizen.
  • Weather Preferences: Warmth. Storms.
  • Location: Global citizen.
12 hours ago, johnholmes said:

my goodness we do have some very clever forecasters on here. Just what is wrong with this as a preliminary warning. Equally what is wrong if they do change it later today?

The warning alerts gritting centres rather than leaving them not having any guidance.

For info, councils and other authorities that deal with salting / road treatment receive their own detailed bespoke forecasts above and beyond Met Office warnings.

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Posted
  • Location: Abingdon - 55m ASL - Capital of The Central Southern England Corridor of Winter Convectionlessness
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Snow>Freezing Fog; Summer: Sun>Daytime Storms
  • Location: Abingdon - 55m ASL - Capital of The Central Southern England Corridor of Winter Convectionlessness
On 04/03/2023 at 23:58, The Enforcer said:

Statement required editing.

 

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If I don't manage to better the above at some point over the next 24 hours, those models deserve to have their arses kicked.

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