Winter 2022/23 - Moans, Ramps & Chat

[danm]

This is currently live btw, so drag the bar back to go to the start:

Edited December 2, 2022 by danm

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

msn.com is showing 8cm for Leeds by next Sunday but nothing South of Birmingham!

[chris55]

3 hours ago, E17boy said:

Hmm I am excited but just raead the weatheronlines week ahead outlook the end has distressed be a bit. Atlantic breaking through after next weekend????? unless they have got it wrong 

The data is the same for us and weather online’. We interpret the data just as they do. 
 

I’d be confident we have plenty on here as skilled, if not more so, than the people who write for these weather websites.

Stick with the MOD thread for day to day interest, as the bigger picture becomes clearer (and closer) the Metoffice or BBC are safe bets as well 

[blizzard81]

I know this is selfish but it is Friday . First snow symbols of the season showing for my area

[The Enforcer]

5 minutes ago, P-M said:

Although I'm not comparing these runs to 2010 what I will say is that as the days went on the showers and disturbances in the flow grew and there were nights where the weather took everyone by surprise at literally T-0.

As if to prove your point, the BBC app T+0 forecast states 2% chance of rain here. And it's raining.

Edited December 2, 2022 by The Enforcer

[The Enforcer]

19 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

UKMO -22c over the hills in Pennines - chilly that

Well any sort of frost should be the first objective for this upcoming cold spell, given a total absence of frosts during the autumn season, which must be unprecedented in an inland lowland location such as this.

[The Enforcer]

35 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

A small detail is not a 500 mile shift north. This has a huge implication for the dynamics of the snow risk. its still there but its likely to be troughs vs widespread showers. still cold.

For some locations, even widespread showers moving in from the East don't travel far enough West, for example, everything the 2010 easterly tried got blocked by the Chilterns and snow only arrived courtesy of a trough coming in from the south-west. So organised fronts/troughs/disturbances can be better.

[Sweatyman]

1 minute ago, sheikhy said:

My god that has gone wrong!!!seriously!!!what on earth has happened!!all down to that kink to the north east at 96 hours!!!amazing!!

Tragic mate. knew it

[JoeShmoe]

BBC 1830 forecast week ahead city view had dry and cloudy with temps at 4/5c. So basically a nothing week and they aren’t seeing anything unusual ( sure that’s actually what Thomas Schaffer Nacker said)

[ChannelThunder]

A roaring southerly with uppers approaching 10c on the latest ECM...grab the popcorn for the model thread... 

[Froze were the Days]

Chortle! MOD thread...hot/warm spells no problems for the models, cold spells in the winter for models...ouch!! in an ever changing world some things never change.

[JoeShmoe]

4 minutes ago, ResonantChannelThunder said:

A roaring southerly with uppers approaching 10c on the latest ECM...grab the popcorn for the model thread... 

lol, when will they ever learn, it’s honestly become a parody of itself these days 

[Methuselah]

2 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

Chortle! MOD thread...hot/warm spells no problems for the models, cold spells in the winter for models...ouch!! in an ever changing world some things never change.

Some of them still seem to think that models control weather... The GFS/ECM/GEM is not the Messiah; he's a very naughty boy!

[Brassmonkeylily]

Yes the BBC forecast for next week is bang average I do believe young Tom enjoyed shooting down any talk of a cold spell ..latest ECM has poured a mild mix into the south for sure... Scotland to have all the fun ..The MAD thread is melting down if you excuse the pun!

[iceman1991]

Meto update right then seems models slowly backtracking from cold just be the far north higher ground having some snow rest of us all wet oh well can’t control how we are in this abnormal world hope I really wrong  though weather wise will see 

[Seasonal Trim]

I'm sorry to admit that I find it so funny when the models start firming up on something other than what the MOD thread wants. "The toys, the toys, would somebody think of the toys!" 

On a serious note, although I love it when it's cold and seasonal, I'm only interested in the models when there's snow involved. And so far nothing, and I mean NOTHING in the reliable has shown any snow. 

This is why the old short range model thread was my go to thread. Unfortunately, nobody was interested in what the weather was most likely to do. Only following snow charts post 10 days which never leave 10 days!

[Sceptical]

Mad thread:

Every year without fail.

 

[The Enforcer]

6 minutes ago, That ECM said:

The theme has gone a bit……..

Fortunately those pants are 18 runs away.

[Downburst]

Is there anything to be said for all going out in the morning and buying the Daily Express for a good old article on Britain freezing in an arctic blast colder than Vladivostok boffins say. Ministers told to prepare cobra according to amateur weather boffin from Basingstoke?

[Rammie]

56 minutes ago, JoeShmoe said:

BBC 1830 forecast week ahead city view had dry and cloudy with temps at 4/5c. So basically a nothing week and they aren’t seeing anything unusual ( sure that’s actually what Thomas Schaffer Nacker said)

Pretty much the same as the current week has been.

[Bristawl Si]

8 minutes ago, Sceptical said:

Mad thread:

Every year without fail.

 

Yes, it's pathetic. 

A Psychiatrist's dream case study, Winter after Winter, without fail.

[The Enforcer]

7 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Pedantically, we generally refer to the the ‘extended’ as being post day 10 

the mean uppers next weekend across s england have risen from -5 c to -2c 

surface temps not so high, going up from 2c to 3.5c 

Only going from cold rain to not quite so cold rain.

[cheeky_monkey]

i find it hilarious...there is me praying for some mild weather here in Western Canada only to see any mild in FI being wiped out on the next run and severe cold being locked in for the next 2 weeks..the exact opposite of what is happening in the UK 

[KTtom]

Some stunningly brilliant posts in the other thread tonight...unfortunately you have to be there live as they get deleted after 30 seconds...brutal !

[IanT]

25 minutes ago, Downburst said:

Is there anything to be said for all going out in the morning and buying the Daily Express for a good old article on Britain freezing in an arctic blast colder than Vladivostok boffins say. Ministers told to prepare cobra according to amateur weather boffin from Basingstoke?

Lancaster, generally.