Northwest Weather Discussion

[damianslaw]

A rather drab day cloudy and overcast bits of rain at times, and much windier than many a day this year, feeling cold. January ending on a rather miserable note.

[Dark Horse]

GFS operational out on it's own tonight in regards to the easterly, UKMO isn't (at least up to the 6th), JMA and ECM not as promising as well. Still a big spread on the ensembles tonight on both the GFS and GEM with a lot of cold runs so this is far from a done deal. Hopefully we can get an interesting Feb.

Edited January 31, 2023 by Dark Horse

[itsnowjoke]

It’s a bit windy out

[Scuba steve]

It is old bean a couple of fence panels rattling think I’ll do the old wood screw trick and bite them in the corners

[toggerob]

I was surprised to see a bit of wintryness in the showers that we had here this early afternoon considering the forecast yesterday was giving clear skies during most of the day. I don't know if it's the models being unreliant but it's definitely been noticeable this winter just how often the forecast does a last-minute 180 compared to what it was supposed to have been 24hr beforehand. At least I was nice & cosey in the car running work-errands up/down the A6 and not stuck somewhere walking through all the hail/sleet showers.

[WillinGlossop]

3 hours ago, Had Worse said:

Hold on to your hats, things are stirring in the MOD thread.

Garden path alert or the Holy grail.

I'd go for the former.

Garden Path definitely… saying quite a bit of snow for Occitanie where we’ve come back from…

[itsnowjoke]

22 minutes ago, WillinGlossop said:

Garden Path definitely… saying quite a bit of snow for Occitanie where we’ve come back from…

Hope you both had a great holiday 

looks like you did 

did you bring back any snow ?

I’ve got room in my freezer

[WillinGlossop]

28 minutes ago, itsnowjoke said:

Hope you both had a great holiday 

looks like you did 

did you bring back any snow ?

I’ve got room in my freezer

Cheers yes lovely food, wine, culture, history and company  

No wouldn’t have withstood the night at Toulouse Blagnac… especially the lukewarm hotel fridge 🫠

Hopefully brought some snowy Synoptics that actually turn into reality back with us 

Ps looking through the charts (GFS) think the cold plunge in the USA this week is playing games with Europe chart wise later on in the recent runs 

Edited January 31, 2023 by WillinGlossop

[Joe Snow]

Not sold on the idea of a February Easterly freeze just yet sadly. Probably a faux cold frosty spell if the cold wins the day. Would love to be wrong though!  

[Rush2019]

Bit breezy this am, 7°C and dry.  Pinch, punch.........we move into a new month, tomorrow is Groundhog Day, I wonder what the groundhog will predict, if he sees his shadow, he will retreat back to his burrow and 6 weeks of winter weather will follow.  No shadow means Spring weather is imminent.  Ancient Brits and French used to use a bear.  I'll stick with getting mesmerised on the MOD thread .

Welcome home @WillinGlossop.

[Scuba steve]

Happy February though weather didn’t get the memo ,blustery with odd showers ,cold too

[A Face like Thunder]

Another north / south divide in the region it seems. Dry and bright here again and not too chilly. I'm happy with this!  

[itsnowjoke]

Raining and gusty winds 

[A Face like Thunder]

Turned cloudy with bits and pieces of rain after a nice start. Noticeable feature is the wind which is gusty and none-too-warm.

[cheshireoak]

7.9C in the blustery marginals. Full cloud cover blowing fairly briskly from the NW. Starting to enjoy the slightly longer daylight. Still not seen that bl****y comet-suspect Manchester light pollution in exactly the wrong place. As Had worse stated, things waking up in the crazy thread, could it be possible????-Doubt it, but it's probably about due.

[Day 10]

17 hours ago, Joe Snow said:

Not sold on the idea of a February Easterly freeze just yet sadly. Probably a faux cold frosty spell if the cold wins the day. Would love to be wrong though!  

1991 is on the way....

[Jan]

According to Google and other 'sources' I see the UK braced for a monster dumping next Thurs/Fri, 2" an hour from a 750 mile wide weather system I'm back in the UK then, a bit of me is hoping

[WillinGlossop]

2 hours ago, Jan said:

According to Google and other 'sources' I see the UK braced for a monster dumping next Thurs/Fri, 2" an hour from a 750 mile wide weather system I'm back in the UK then, a bit of me is hoping

I think that was a couple of crazy gfs runs ago the media’s hopped on to…. As per usual… if a quarter of these prophecies came true we’d have ski resorts in the Pennines

[damianslaw]

Not a great start to February. Overcast grey skies throughout, rain on and off, nuisance value really. Less wind than yesterday but feeling chilly despite temps creeping above 8 degrees.

Outlook very benign for what is still deep mid winter, lots of cloudy dank conditions on the way, until high pressure builds by Sunday hopefully bringing some welcome sunshine and return of frost. 

[Jan]

16 minutes ago, WillinGlossop said:

I think that was a couple of crazy gfs runs ago the media’s hopped on to…. As per usual… if a quarter of these prophecies came true we’d have ski resorts in the Pennines

We're driving from Southern Spain and up through France, maybe I'll see some there (lve even got my woolly hat with me ) 

[WillinGlossop]

5 minutes ago, Jan said:

We're driving from Southern Spain and up through France, maybe I'll see some there (lve even got my woolly hat with me ) 

Yes definitely if going through Pyrenees and also Massif Central… some quite snowy mountains on horizon at Toulouse airport yesterday

[Jan]

1 hour ago, WillinGlossop said:

Yes definitely if going through Pyrenees and also Massif Central… some quite snowy mountains on horizon at Toulouse airport yesterday

We go through Madrid, usually snow on the mountains there then towards Bilbao up over the border into France, Bordeaux 

[WillinGlossop]

44 minutes ago, Jan said:

We go through Madrid, usually snow on the mountains there then towards Bilbao up over the border into France, Bordeaux 

Yes high up Madrid plateau 600 m plus… the Pyrenees looks quite snowy over the last 3/4 weeks… should definitely see some.. Bordeaux is pretty & love Arcachon…

Hope you have great trip

Edited February 1, 2023 by WillinGlossop

[Dark Horse]

4 hours ago, Day 10 said:

1991 is on the way....

If only Not been a February better since round here. Apart from 2018 it just shows for the most part how rubbish February has been for truly severe conditions since 91.

Can remember a number of times though in the 90s when the Albert dock not a million miles from you was covered in decent snow during This Morning with Richard and Judy. Back in the days when we didn't have a middle eastern climate!. Looked that way after last summer everywhere cracked, yellow and scorched  

[SP1986]

I was starting to think something interesting was going to happen maybe into February, then the 18z came out and re-iterated why we can't take it seriously, and why the other models are not jumping onto this cold spell bandwagon. For a start the GFS operational is consistently out on its own with maybe  has support from a few ensembles, but generally no cross model support. 

The next thing was, the evolution of the GFS 18z is a little far fetched in reality, is cold air really going to intensify on the west coasts of Europe in comparison to its source in Russia?.. well it's highly unlikely given there's currently no source of genuinely cold air in central and western Europe. 

So whilst the 18z looks like a pretty picture for cold, it's likely just another isolated "nutjob" run from the GFS. I would definitely consider sticking with the UKMO, ICON and ECM which altogether look more realistic, even if they don't bring what we'd want to see in February.

Edited February 1, 2023 by SP1986