Model discussion highlights

[bluearmy]

14 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

Would you say anything before the 28th of Feb is trop led then? Or can there be a combination of both working in tandem?

The upper strat has a mid Atlantic ridge extending from the polar high 

The mid Atlantic ridge is showing in the mid to lower strat but once we get below 100 hpa, we see that further east. So the feature is strat supported but at the moment it’s not clear if this run is just a variation on the theme.  I think it’s a trop led feature but it’s interesting if we get something in the trop and the mid strat but not supported in between 

Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/98326-model-output-discussion-into-february/?do=findComment&comment=4805564

[bluearmy]

As soon as the models have reversed flow atop the strat at T0, they respond by finding upper ridging to our west gaining way more  traction than seemed possible only 36 hrs ago (in combination with n pacific sector ridging which cuts the vortex connection across the pole which seemed so strong) 

the zonal flow down here is predicted much slower than had been forecast ….

still too early to get a handle on whether ec/gem ops are too slow and amplified by day 10 and gfs will hopefully sniff the coffee better through its next few runs. But now we have he most important part of what occurring in the upper atmosphere in the starting data, we should begin to get some better modelling of the 8/16 day period. 
 

@nick sussex (and others) have been expecting a change but if the 00z ops are on the money this will be even quicker than expected towards Greenland 

Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/98326-model-output-discussion-into-february/?do=findComment&comment=4805622

[Singularity]

Given the very earliest probable timeframe for any SSW impacts is 1st week March, the outlook is interesting with its continued dominance of high pressure in the UK vicinity. Historically this being so right after a SSW has some linkage to a cold pattern during the impact period, likely because a settled UK often occurs as the MJO transits phases 5-6-7 at high amplitude, which itself is a precursor to cold patterns (chiefly -NAO) a week or so later on.

Any notably cold weather prior to any SSW impacts will be driven from within the troposphere rather than above. The big uncertainty has been how strongly the tropospheric/lower stratospheric polar vortex will keep the pattern flat despite that MJO forcing. Across the past 4 days the pendulum has swung away from the MJO being dominant then back toward it.

Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/98326-model-output-discussion-into-february/?do=findComment&comment=4805659

[mushymanrob]

42 minutes ago, Tills said:

This is what I am struggling with.

The model outputs in reality show very little support currently for SSW-driven cold over the UK. 

Instead the most dominant feature on all the model outputs is a massive and persistent high pressure cell over Europe and / or southern Britain. That is one hell of a stubborn mule to move and it is likely now to carry us into meteorological Spring. Everytime we think it is about to shift it comes back like an unflushable turd.

Cold incursions during March and April are to be expected but there is no sign of a  'Beast from the East' at present.

I am learning that this is not what many people on here want to read but it is surely the present reality of the outputs?

You are quite right that the current outputs dont support a SSW driven cold spell, but what you are missing is the fact that 1- it hasnt started yet, 2 - the effects can take upto 4 weeks to impact our weather, 3 - theres a double dip SSW with reversed winds into mid March.

Put all this together and you wont see anything yet in the model outputs, because they dont reach into the timeframe any effects of the SSW are likely to hit, well, not reliably anyway.

The SPV is going to be disrupted/demolished/ineffective for about a Month... that suggests that both March and April will be liable to SSW driven cold.

I dont think youll see any reliable evidence of anything cold in the model outputs for another week. For now its a case of sitting back and waiting.... ps, im no coldie.

Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/98326-model-output-discussion-into-february/?do=findComment&comment=4805673

[phil nw.]

A way to monitor the downwelling of the warmings is to follow the ecm srat. forecasts.

Reversal is underway at the very top and will show at 10hPa in the next day or so.

Lower down at 30hPa the reversal doesn't quite show within the next 10 days,based on the chart from yesterday.

On the plus side zonal winds even at this mid level are forecasted to slow right down,3 to 4 m/s. and this reduction extends right down to the lowest level with forecasts zonal wind speeds down to 7 m/s.

The troposphere pattern should start to reflect this in the later outputs from now with a more ridgy and slowing jet.

Probably why we are just starting to see some interesting charts in the later frames.

Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/98326-model-output-discussion-into-february/?do=findComment&comment=4805729

[sebastiaan1973]

GFS6h could be a reaction of the development in the stratosphere. Research shows that a negative NAO setting is very sensitive to the state of the stratosphere. https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/qj.3280 

Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/98326-model-output-discussion-into-february/?do=findComment&comment=4805707

[Cold Winter Night]

23 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

Perhaps,  the high however may be mjo related, perhaps the two could be working together for a change, as the strat will be weeker at the same time as mjo builds heights to our west. So it may be able to push up through greenland.

We have the MJO that entered phases favourable for amplification to our Northwest yesterday.
With a typical 10 day lag that takes us to the 23rd/24th of February for a response.

Now we see EC, GFS and GEM, and several ensemble members/clusters amplifying right around those dates.

The SSW is also happening right about now.
A typical response in the troposhere takes 15-20 days, so we'd expect to see something happening in the first week of March.
However, the sample size for SSW's is very small, especially when subdivided into ENSO phases, so a faster descent of the effects can not be ruled out, and Quick Troposheric Responses are also a known phenomenon.
QTR's typically take 9-10 days. That would, again, take us to somewhere around the 24th of February for a QTR to become visible at 500 hPa.

Now, overnight, across models we see a move to that Atlantic amplification, all of a sudden. The MJO cycle has been moving along for a while now, but the only sudden thing is, well the Sudden Stratopheric Warming.

My take is that the MJO may struggle to amplify, not strong enough by itself, but with the help of a QTR forcing the same effect (amplification) at the same time, they really start working together, instead of following each other.

The next few runs may begin to show quite extreme solutions, I think, visible in the Ops first, followed by the ensembles.

Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/98326-model-output-discussion-into-february/?do=findComment&comment=4805757

[Mike Poole]

GFS 6z cross section chart:

The build of heights north towards the end of the run looks to be due to the SSW.  

Also, this chart showing the mean zonal wind 10 hPa on each 0z suite is interesting, the strength of the initial reversal is increasing day by day, suggesting the models may have underplayed this event anyway, 

Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/98326-model-output-discussion-into-february/?do=findComment&comment=4805789

[Mike Poole]

As might be expected given the runs so far, the ECM clusters are improved on last night with support for the move towards cold starting with an atlantic ridge.  T192-T240:

Both clusters go for it by T240, with a NW to N flow across the UK.

T264+:

More scatter as one would expect, but all but cluster 1 go for some form of blocking centred north of the UK by day 15.  This is looking pretty convincing now.

Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/98326-model-output-discussion-into-february/?do=findComment&comment=4805638

[Eagle Eye]

The difference in after reversal Wave activity between the two warmings is starkly contrasted and that's the difference between not downwelling and downwelling. My problem is that every warming seems to be forecasted like the second one beyond Day 10 then slowly move towards the first 1 closer to time. Hopefully that's not how the second Wavebreaking acts.

Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/98326-model-output-discussion-into-february/?do=findComment&comment=4805846

[Cheshire Freeze]

1 hour ago, RainAllNight said:

How do you distinguish a trop response to the SSW from a "regular" late-run fantasy evolution? Is it that the pattern here is similar to the one in the strat?

Big giveaway for me is the Pacific ridging attempting to connect with Atlantic ridging. When you see a 'parting of the seas' evolution like that where the vortices seemingly pull away from one another very suddenly, you can be assured it's either a response to a very high amplitude MJO event or a response to a SSW. Given we're seeing a SSW event unfold right now, I'll put my money on that.

You don't go from this

to this

in a matter of days without some large forcing from somewhere.

Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/98326-model-output-discussion-into-february/?do=findComment&comment=4806011

[Cheshire Freeze]

Looks like the path is becoming clear.

A brief N'ly toppling around a mid Atlantic HP next week, followed by HP sat across the UK...which should feel very springlike 

After this, to me it looks as though we'll see the TPV fracture as a result of the SSW. This should see the UK HP eventually gain latitude as we go into March, probably sitting around Greenland/Iceland eventually.

The timeline for me would be-

22nd-25th (ish) brief colder injection due to N'ly topple

26th-first week of March settled with UK HP. Pleasant and spring-like days followed by colder nights

After that a rapid descent into winter once again with blocking taking hold Norwegian coast-Iceland-Greenland

Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/98326-model-output-discussion-into-february/?do=findComment&comment=4806020

[Met4Cast]

The first bout of warming and downwelling looks to be essentially blocked by strong, dominating equatorward flux, this is mostly why I think any mid-Atlantic ridging next week is MJO/trop led rather than SSW led, it's just too fast and there's no real evidence this is down to the SSW now occurring. This is shown well by the stratobserve E-P flux chart.

Later in the month the forecast is for increasing Poleward flux helped by wavebreaking up into the lower stratosphere, this then in turn helps the -ve zonal winds begin to downwell more sufficiently than the first around of warming.

Granted, this is based on GFS det forecasts so it has to be taken with a pinch of salt re: longer term outlook, I wish we had similar charts from the ECM or EPS available but sadly we don't. Based on this though, I still think we're looking at early-mid March for SSW impacts on the troposphere, next weeks mid-Atlantic ridge and likely brief northerly is more of a bonus.

Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/98326-model-output-discussion-into-february/?do=findComment&comment=4806081

[johnholmes]

2 hours ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

So they see average to mild.  Will be interesting to see the result 

 

BFTP

A bit of a misquote for the time most are looking at Fred-why?

The final comments spoke of SSW giving a 70% risk of colder weather. As a cold fan it seems odd you don't mention this!

 

Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/98326-model-output-discussion-into-february/?do=findComment&comment=4805988

[Eagle Eye]

4 hours ago, Met4Cast said:

The first bout of warming and downwelling looks to be essentially blocked by strong, dominating equatorward flux, this is mostly why I think any mid-Atlantic ridging next week is MJO/trop led rather than SSW led, it's just too fast and there's no real evidence this is down to the SSW now occurring. This is shown well by the stratobserve E-P flux chart.

Later in the month the forecast is for increasing Poleward flux helped by wavebreaking up into the lower stratosphere, this then in turn helps the -ve zonal winds begin to downwell more sufficiently than the first around of warming.

Granted, this is based on GFS det forecasts so it has to be taken with a pinch of salt re: longer term outlook, I wish we had similar charts from the ECM or EPS available but sadly we don't. Based on this though, I still think we're looking at early-mid March for SSW impacts on the troposphere, next weeks mid-Atlantic ridge and likely brief northerly is more of a bonus.

Yep, appears the Eddy vectors are better in the second. The lag for this first SSW is somewhere between Phase 3/4 and the retraction of the retrograde +VE heights over Arctic signal with the previous cyclonic Wavebreak Canada-Arctic in the Tropopshere that really helped 'return' the normality of the Vortex and retreat the baroclinic eddies if I remember correctly.

This time, the SE US ridge might work in our favour without a -VE EPO so strong and no exiting wave of warm air meaning that the lag in about 10 days plus with a quite strong phase 5-6 lag suggests a much better North Atlantic and perhaps Pacific signal as well. So more poleward advection of energy transport and with that comes Rossby Waves carried by the eddies.

To put it bluntly, the first SSW is unlikely to affect surface temps however the second warming might be able to downwell easier. Looks very much to me like were probably seeing the uncertainty of if the first SSW can affect the Troposphere at all and the lag of the MJO movement rather than the direct affects itself yet. 

I feel like this will get pushed back till the second SSW time as the models start to model the zonal wind structure throughout the atmosphere better when it gets closer to time. Essentially this is a learning curve with so much going on and of course the poor modelling between the Stratosphere and the Troposphere. We've also got to be careful of conformation bias when looking back at how this eventually worked out as I think this could be a good event to look back on to understand everything.

We've got ourselves into a good position and the cross is about to be played in but will it reach the coldies striker or will the zonal FC defenders be able to scramble it away. 1 all in the last minute but the coldies have two players in the middle. The MJO and the SSW but the zonal FC defence is rock solid.

Well let's attempt to make a bit more sense out of this;

Recent rise in AAM associated with increase in mountain torque which is likely a +VE EAMT event that will extend the Pacific jet and eventually retract the Atlantic jet hopefully. Perhaps helping with the initial cold potential but I suspect not too much as it doesn't look strong enough yet perhaps having a better lag for the second chance. Given better tropical-extratropical forcing a good block to the North with the transition of weaker westerly momentum between the two but my thinking is that that's more likely to link in with the second SSW.

The trouble with everything is exact timing as always and it's incredible how much comvection has an impact on our weather in the Winter. 

The Hadley and Walker cells impacted by land surface heating exchange as well and that's just another thing to put on top of everything else to do eith exchanges of momentum between the tropics and the extratropics. The African land surface heating for MJO Phase 3 impacted the Tibetan plateau and appeared to allow room for the +VE EAMT with the heating exchange but also that fluxed up the extratropical interactions by releasing latent heat flux upwards driving the Ural-BK omega block that eventually led to a Scandi-Ural dipole as they 'connected' in the Stratosphere.

However, this time around there's a different look to the land surface heating exchanges. Initially, we have the backing for mid Atlantic WAA that twists towards the UK with not really enough advection of sorts for mid to high lat blocking.

Importantly, this is a GFS operational run and it's characterisation of land surface heating exchange and flux characteristics is often very far off. Though for now this appears a good background setup for an east US to Greenland Rossby Wave exchange and that forms the +VE heights over Greenland that eventually push to full on northern blocking according to the GFS but right now I think that's probably quite unrealistic.

Right now the best CCKW movement appears to be pushing towards North America and is currently transitioning over the Pacific as the MJO looks to be slowly building its pressure there.

However, the response does not look to be that strong at all making me worry that the first chance is really being overmodelled right now. Beyond that and the second SSW chance is realistically our best chance but that would take us to early to mid March and we are really pushing the limits of Winted.

So it's a waiting game at the moment. That's all for now because I keep losing my progress by accident.

 

Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/98326-model-output-discussion-into-february/?do=findComment&comment=4806160

[bluearmy]

Having sifted through the strat forecasts that I can look at across gfs and ec, it looks like the spv extension to Canada will give up post second warming with the polar ridge extending into the n Atlantic.  At that point it seems quite likely that the strat height pattern will broadly imprint into the trop which takes us into early march ( Asian tpv and west hemispheric polar ridge) 

aaron’ s reference to the fi gfs charts is probably reasonable at this stage. We are currently seeing ens output which generally retains the Canadian vortex strength which pushes the Atlantic ridging further east. Again, that’s not unreasonable but should retrogress over a period 

Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/98326-model-output-discussion-into-february/?do=findComment&comment=4806434

[Cambrian]

The 0z ECM ensemble mean is good viewing. The mean by day 7 is impressive by any measure. 

  

A proper stab of cold air from the north, mean T850s, chilly for all at day 8.

  

The elongation of the southward troughing at day 8 is important because it sends lower heights down into the Mediterranean, which sets up an easterly flow with a Northwest European block in place by day 10. 

 

Clear signs now by day 15 of the core PV moving to the Siberian side. Day 10-15 animation shows it beautifully. The Canadian lobe of the PV is giving up the ghost. That’s the most robust movement east that the means have shown for many weeks. 

 

The Northwest European block is still in place, but with the weakening of the PV over Canada and Greenland, not enough energy to push the remnants of the shallow Greenland trough east over the Atlantic, so more likely instead to slip over the top and link up with the lower heights over Svalbard. The Atlantic looks ripe from there to welcome retrogression of the Western European block as heights are pushed west, inviting the dropping of the trough into Scandinavia - which with the Siberian lobe gathering like that, is probably only a matter of time. 

None of us can vouch for what others read in to the charts - that I suppose is a big part of the beauty and fascination in what we do - but to my eyes at least, it looks to be setting up for a protracted period with a strong disposition towards development of cold weather patterns, something that we have seen frequently in recent years in the late winter /  early spring period, this year made even more fascinating by the SSW. 

Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/98326-model-output-discussion-into-february/?do=findComment&comment=4806480

[Catacol]

10 hours ago, feb1991blizzard said:

The ridge won't gain enough latitude to bring anything too severe, however, once the SSW kicks in proper though, March, different gravy completely, keep watching the charts for March, and you won't be disappointed.

Becoming more confident of the cold March scenario as the days tick by. Now that we have seen off the disappointing first half of February (though the attacks on the strat in late January that didn’t produce what we hoped have left the vortex predisposed to what is happening now) we need to look for consistency of signal combined with a bit of human interpretation.

When it comes to consistency this modelling of the strat has remained constant. Warming initially centred over Alaska pushing into the pole and thus a displaced vortex moving to Russia.

 

Unlike early December this warming is not trop led - it is a top down event that does not need to find a “reflection” in order to deliver results back to the troposphere…and so it is a question of just how far down through the layers the warming and consequent maiming of the vortex can descend. GEFS image posted earlier today by Cohen now clearly showing penetration right down to the troposphere

and at this point we can use a bit of intuitive experience to conclude that conditions for high lat blocking will become very favourable as February turns to March. No need to post the MJO forecast again - we know we are simultaneously heading towards a 6/7/8 phase setup and an interesting image from Jason Furtado posted yesterday from his research:

Stamp g) is likely where we are heading, reinforced by the CFS monthly posted earlier in this thread by Crewe.

I am wary of predicting exactly what the surface conditions will be. 2018 was a split and I found that relatively easy to pick the likely trend of severe cold tracking east to west. With a displacement like this the retrograde signal will be less strong - no reverse flow from Siberia to Canada the “wrong” way this time I think….but it seems to me entirely possible that we can get a strong ridge, possibly cross polar, pushing up through Greenland pulling a cold trough in towards the U.K. on its eastern flank. Sun is stronger = better conditions for snow showers and streamers off the North Sea….and plenty of cold air still to tap into for several weeks yet.

Much to look forward to!

 

Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/98326-model-output-discussion-into-february/?do=findComment&comment=4806738

[bluearmy]

if we see the output become even more keen on the ridges gaining more traction then this isn’t because the reversal has happened today in a tech ssw sense.  The parameters of 60N and 10 hpa are there because they recognise that for the hemispheric zonal mean to be reversed at 60N is very notable. We will sometimes see flow reverse at higher latitudes in the winter but for it to make it down to 60N should lead to ramifications in the trop if we see that downwell.  Imagine a reversal above 80N - that’s going to cause some cold to spill south but not generally into the mid lats  

the modelling has the reversal higher up in its starting data since Tuesday’s runs. As the reversed flow becomes more established, it’s reasonable to assume that the model runs will show a  more realistic response, run by run,  in their total atmospheric modelling. I’m particularly interested to see the ec46 this evening re the predicted second warming and its effect on the ens members zonal flow. 

Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/98326-model-output-discussion-into-february/?do=findComment&comment=4806538

[nick sussex]

The ECM seems to have had issues with its MJO forecast .

It was wrong at T24 hrs . Unusually the GEFS has been more accurate .

You can see both forecasts from two days ago .

The ECM                                                    The GEFS

This is today’s from the ECM and GEFS .

 

We are likely to make at least phase 7 at varying amplitudes .

And the differences are important given the timelag and possible interaction between the MJO and SSW.

Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/98326-model-output-discussion-into-february/?do=findComment&comment=4806539

[bluearmy]

The issue is that next weeks ridge can’t get far enough north to advect enough deep cold south (in addition it looks to be less clean with disruption becoming involved and any low uppers not getting far enough to our east). Hence when we build some heights and bring in a continental flow, there is no supply of low uppers to draw upon. given the time of year, this will be an issue for those chasing a proper last hurrah of winter. 
 

For now, I can’t see much away from the worst case scenarios mused about in jan when the initial warming seemed likely to fail to bring a full reversal and we wondered if a potential feb ssw would simply deliver a cold spring through March and April …..

Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/98326-model-output-discussion-into-february/?do=findComment&comment=4806879

[nick sussex]

You can see the GFS makes an early change to its low set up to the north and that area ne of the low.

So GFS 00 hrs run T120 hrs .    And GFS 06 hrs run to T114 hrs .

 

This then allows that surface high to form . There’s little difference with the upstream pattern at this point .

What it does allow  is an easier link up with the ridge to the nw as this topples ne wards .

That area over Scandi in terms of heights does have support from the Euros at day 5.

Its not that the GFS has pulled out some phantom pattern to the ne at that point but just the Euros upstream pattern and area to the north isn’t condusive to developing that more favourable evolution after this point .

ECM 00hrs T120 hrs .                            UKMO 00hrs T120 .

The cold pool the GFS finds again isn’t phantom . The Euros have cold pooling to the ne but don’t as yet manage to advect the deeper cold sw.

Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/98326-model-output-discussion-into-february/?do=findComment&comment=4806955

[Cambrian]

There are some good consistencies appearing across the ECM outputs that allow us to put some meat on the bones for the next few weeks in terms of general timelines and air masses, at least according to ECM! Risky enough to have a go at 3 days on these islands, let alone 3 weeks, but the longwave patterns continue to be very slow moving, so I’m willing to chance my arm. 

If we compare the weather regimes forecast from Monday with that of yesterday:

 

The 16th through to 22nd/23rd is still being indicated as NAO+ driven. There is some Atlantic ridging on the 20th, which converts to brief blocking on the 21st, but by the 23rd, there’s a good signal for an Atlantic ridge. 

This is in keeping with week 1 (20th-27th) from yesterday’s extended pressure anomalies forecast and today’s 0z ECM ensemble mean - I’ve taken next Thursday, day 6, as the middle day in the Monday to Monday week. A stab of cold air from the north for a few days before the Atlantic ridge builds in. 

 

The strength of the blocking signal from the 27th to the 3rd in Monday’s forecast is notably reduced, and the difference has been made up for by slightly increased signals for Atlantic ridging and some NAO+, so for much of Europe some flow off the Atlantic around a high. Overall, though, it’s still a largely blocked week or so from the 28th-6th with the high centred over the UK and Ireland for the most part, reaching into southern Scandinavia. The ensemble mean for the following Thursday, day 13, the 2nd, showing the ridge centred near Denmark.

 

The indications for the following week heading towards the middle of March, 7th-14th, hint that this is where it really could begin to get very interesting. The UK and Ireland are in a region of neutral pressure anomaly sandwiched between two troughs, one over the western Atlantic and the other over eastern Scandinavia.

 

Though the ECM means only run to day 15, the initial direction of travel is perhaps signalled by the profound migration of the PV to the Siberian side and the further southward and westward encroachment of the troughing into the Baltic Sea, which could well come more our way, potential that is reinforced by the trend in mean T850s between days 13 and 15. The uppers themselves are far from exciting, but such a definite trend at that range is very encouraging.

 

On the Canadian side, the 512 gpm purples are withdrawing from Labrador to Baffin, so at the moment that doesn’t look like there’s going to be enough energy to start disrupting from there around the southwest flank of the high to push it up into Scandinavia during the first week of March, particularly against the PV on that side. But going by the pressures anomaly, the second week of March looks more favourable. 

So as a possible scenario - end of the first week of March, a Scandinavian trough bringing a bitter northerly for a few days of snow chances and to get the cold in over northern and central Europe, then lower heights to our southwest to bump the high up through us to the north (those lower heights might even have come the long way around from the Scandinavian trough itself), would let us tap into a long run of cold air from the east, around and after mid month, finding empathy here with the pressures anomalies at week 5 - is a feasible path. All, of course, a very long way off.

I get the feeling whatever though, that with the PV migration firming up so strongly, against the backdrop of the SSW, this weekend and next week is going to be up there with the most intriguing model-watching of recent years. 

Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/98326-model-output-discussion-into-february/?do=findComment&comment=4806972

[nick sussex]

For those interested NCEP updated their monthly outlook for March and that talks a lot about the SSW and MJO.

They seem to be erring towards the impacts being felt more towards Asia or Europe and not the USA .

Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/98326-model-output-discussion-into-february/?do=findComment&comment=4806890

[johnholmes]

The 500 mb anomaly charts have shown the meridional pattern now for about 3 days, the last outputs 6-10 and 8-14 from last evening, see below, quite marked. So if they are anywhere near close to the upper air pattern 2 weeks from now, quite a blocked pattern with troughing over near Europe.

Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/98326-model-output-discussion-into-february/?do=findComment&comment=4806896