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Message added by Paul,

Please keep your posts to discussing the model output in this thread, and for more general winter weather chat please use the winter chat, moans and ramps thread.

The model highlights thread is also available for a more concise view of the model discussions. 

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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
Posted
3 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

If the NH profile is unusual then everything needs to be treated with caution imo. 

if you head back to 2010, I recall Stewart telling us that despite the nwp showing the demise of the greeny block, it woud not verify like that and within a few days, back it came on the extended ens …… one would hope that more than a decade on, the models would be better!  But they’ve proved over the past week that they probably aren’t …….

Det and op are the same 

Thanks BA, northwestsnow puts det looks good. Bit confusing 👍👍

  • Like 3
Posted
  • Location: Windsor
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold
  • Location: Windsor
Posted
2 hours ago, MJB said:

Yes it's cold but that is it , nice to look at but with no snow to discuss , where's the excitement ?, I'd rather a high-risk scenario  

I’m hoping with those colder 850s and NE’lies we might get some snow showers off a relatively warm North Sea.

  • Like 4
Posted
  • Location: West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: West Dorset
Posted

Very interesting Jet via the GFS.

 

Could contain: Outdoors, Nature, Sea, Water, Plot, Chart, Hurricane, Storm

  • Like 7
  • Insightful 1
Posted
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, thunder, hail & heavy snow
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)
Posted (edited)

 

30 minutes ago, Cold Winter Night said:


Week 5

Could contain: Person, Outdoors

Though super duper deep into the dreamland, I like how with week 5 the EC46 shows an area of lower than average heights just South of the UK perhaps suggesting a possibility of a Western European trough, although admittedly just a little shift East would be preferable. But would mean heights lowering to the South of the UK again (should anything like that happen 5 weeks away). 

Edited by DiagonalRedLine
  • Like 4
Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
Posted
4 minutes ago, DiagonalRedLine said:

 

Though super duper deep into the dreamland, I like how with week 5 the EC46 shows an area of lower than average heights just South of the UK perhaps suggesting a possibility of a Western European trough, although admittedly just a little shift East would be preferable. But would mean heights lowering to the South of the UK again (should anything like that happen 5 weeks away). 

My experience of the 46 is that it doesn’t usually show a low anomoly to our south at that range.  Expect it to disappear by Monday. If it doesn’t then take notice ! 

  • Like 3
  • Insightful 2
Posted
  • Location: bingley,west yorks. 100 asl
  • Location: bingley,west yorks. 100 asl
Posted
41 minutes ago, Cold Winter Night said:

EC46 says blocking will be here for a while...

Except for some annoying heights over Europe around Christmas, it keeps blocking to our North and near Greenland well into January.

Week 2

Could contain: Modern Art, Art, Outdoors, Nature, Person

Week 3

Could contain: Modern Art, Art, Outdoors

Week 4

8dec-EC46-0201.thumb.png.ae4593a67f130f7670c19e309882b7dd.png

Week 5

Could contain: Person, Outdoors

Also,blocking to our south for a fair while. That's not good.

  • Like 2
Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
Posted
5 minutes ago, joggs said:

Also,blocking to our south for a fair while. That's not good.

It looks odd to me. Doesn’t seem to be supported on the clusters either ……

  • Like 5
Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
Posted
Just now, Ed Stone said:

And you have a stonking Xmas too Fred... But didn't you and I both predict a 2018-19 'Winter of Discontent'?😱

Indeed!  Hopefully this won’t be…not discontent anyway!  Interesting how the cold has been projected to hang on…I think more model drama to come ahead.  ECM looking really cold all the way

 BFTP

  • Like 2
Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted
7 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Indeed!  Hopefully this won’t be…not discontent anyway!  Interesting how the cold has been projected to hang on…I think more model drama to come ahead.  ECM looking really cold all the way

 BFTP

Aye, Fred...Lets' hope this year is it!?:santa-emoji:

  • Like 3
Posted
  • Location: Dipton, Nr Consett, Co.Durham, 250m, 777ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Anything but boringly hot
  • Location: Dipton, Nr Consett, Co.Durham, 250m, 777ft asl
Posted

I see the latest Christmas update has landed tonight & well the chart for the main week looks promising.

 

Could contain: Plot, Chart, Map, Atlas, Diagram

  • Like 3
  • Thanks 2
Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
Posted

Nice icon..Better corridor for Heights around Greenland...Nice build of heights East of scandi also..such a petty they only run it to day 5 at night..They must like to finish early 😉

Could contain: Plot, Chart, Outdoors

Could contain: Art, Plot, Chart, Accessories, Outdoors, Pattern, Graphics

  • Like 5
Posted
  • Location: Lucan Co Dublin
  • Location: Lucan Co Dublin
Posted

Looking at the ECM 12Z wouldnt surprise me to see tomorrows output and subsequent output pushing that low  further southwards. That block to the North looks to be pretty stubborn. We will have to wait and see with baited breath

  • Like 4
Posted
  • Location: North London
  • Location: North London
Posted

Is it me or does every run seem to strengthen and inflate the greenland high more and more the closer we get to next week? Don't remember it being shown as this strong a few days ago

  • Like 6
Posted
  • Location: North East Hampshire
  • Location: North East Hampshire
Posted (edited)
34 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

It looks odd to me. Doesn’t seem to be supported on the clusters either ……

Maybe they’ve coloured it in wrong 😅

In all seriousness, it would make more sense for that to be lower pressure to the south. 

1 minute ago, Howie said:

Is it me or does every run seem to strengthen and inflate the greenland high more and more the closer we get to next week? Don't remember it being shown as this strong a few days ago

Yes, I’ve seen this happen before. In the end you reach a tipping point and end up with a completely different way forward than what was modelled previously.  

Edited by Johnp
  • Like 2
Posted
  • Location: North London
  • Location: North London
Posted
1 minute ago, Johnp said:

Maybe they’ve coloured it in wrong 😅

In all seriousness, it would make more sense for that to be lower pressure to the south. 

Yes, I’ve seen this happen before. In the end you reach a tipping point and end up with a completely different way forward than what was modelled previous. 

You can really see the zonal bias in the models here. I still remember the ecm from last Friday that had us in south westerly by Saturday 🤣

  • Like 4
  • Insightful 1
Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, irish1 said:

Could contain: Plot, Chart, Map, Atlas, Diagram

Track of storm firmly South now, chances of frontal snow look to have faded away but will help keep the cold locked in.

Still not a done deal- when nearing the biscay front a northward thwart / shunt-isn’t at all unusual with these approaching lows!.. this will need a close eye nxt24/48 hrs trust me!

Edited by tight isobar
  • Like 4
  • Insightful 1
Posted
  • Location: Isle of Canvey, Thames Estuary
  • Location: Isle of Canvey, Thames Estuary
Posted
5 minutes ago, irish1 said:

Could contain: Plot, Chart, Map, Atlas, Diagram

Track of storm firmly South now, chances of frontal snow look to have faded away but will help keep the cold locked in.

If I’ve got the right low, perhaps that might be better for us further down the line?

  • Like 1
Posted
  • Location: Work: Near Glasto Home: near Puriton
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and sunny or cold and snowy. Nothing inbetween.
  • Location: Work: Near Glasto Home: near Puriton
Posted
7 minutes ago, irish1 said:

Could contain: Plot, Chart, Map, Atlas, Diagram

Track of storm firmly South now, chances of frontal snow look to have faded away but will help keep the cold locked in.

When’s that chart for? Can’t see a time on it

  • Like 1
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