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Please keep your posts to discussing the model output in this thread, and for more general winter weather chat please use the winter chat, moans and ramps thread.

The model highlights thread is also available for a more concise view of the model discussions. 

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Posted
  • Location: Gateshead, Tyne and Wear - 320ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold snowy weather in winter. Dry and warm in summer.
  • Location: Gateshead, Tyne and Wear - 320ft ASL
Posted (edited)
11 minutes ago, london-snow said:

I’m in agreement with both statements tbh, let’s be honest most of us that do hibernate through spring summer and autumn are only here during the winter to focus and discuss the possibility of cold and subsequently snow which let us be honest if theirs no snow theirs no point. Granted Matt their will be chances going forward the longer this current spell extends, however those who have called it a 2010 repeat are way wide of the mark. We had early snowfall that stuck around for days before any so called breakdown. Let’s see what happens i like you feel get the cold in place and the games will begin, hopefully sooner rather then later. 

I have seen a few on here mention this spell being similar to 2010. Nov/Dec 2010 was historic with Dec ending up one of the coldest of the past 100 years. This spell was never going to get to that standard IMO, although I have snow outside now and there should be more opportunities over the next week. It could still be a notable spell similar to Jan 13.
The models aren’t showing the depth of cold that we had in 2010.

Edited by ScottSnow
  • Like 5
Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
Posted

A little feature has actually cropped up in central southern England on Sunday, I’m sure it’ll be gone by the next run but it’s something to look for.

Could contain: Plot, Chart, Map, Sea, Nature, Outdoors, Water, Atlas, Diagram

Could contain: Plot, Chart, Map, Atlas, Diagram, Nature, Outdoors, Sea, Water

  • Like 8
Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
Posted

Now then this is what I’m talking about- as the lp gets block bound elongation begins- a classic clue to sliding under- and will confuse the track unti 24hrs inbound to where it’s wants to make landful- far from deciphering yet!!

Could contain: Plot, Chart, Sea, Nature, Outdoors, Water, Land, Coast, Shoreline

Could contain: Plot, Chart, Nature, Outdoors, Map

  • Like 6
  • Insightful 1
Posted
  • Location: HANDSWORTH BIRMINGHAM B21. 130MASL. 427FT.
  • Weather Preferences: WINTERS WITH HEAVY DISRUPTIVE SNOWFALL AVRAGE SPRING HOT SUMMERS.
  • Location: HANDSWORTH BIRMINGHAM B21. 130MASL. 427FT.
Posted

Just been looking at NOAA 6-1 and 8-14 days discussions and forecasters over there going 40% of this afternoons gfs for the USA AND 60% OF ECMWF 0H RUNS I don't know what it would mean for us here though.  

The official 8-14 day 500-hPa height blend consists of: 40% of Today's  
operational 12z GFS centered on Day 11, and 60% of Today's 0z European Ensemble  
Mean centered on Day 11  
 
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: Above Average, 4 out of 5, due to  
good agreement among the dynamical and statistical tools over Alaska and the  
western CONUS, offset by some disagreements in the eastern U.S.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/fxus06.html

  • Like 4
Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
Posted
5 minutes ago, syed2878 said:

Just been looking at NOAA 6-1 and 8-14 days discussions and forecasters over there going 40% of this afternoons gfs for the USA AND 60% OF ECMWF 0H RUNS I don't know what it would mean for us here though.  

The official 8-14 day 500-hPa height blend consists of: 40% of Today's  
operational 12z GFS centered on Day 11, and 60% of Today's 0z European Ensemble  
Mean centered on Day 11  
 
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: Above Average, 4 out of 5, due to  
good agreement among the dynamical and statistical tools over Alaska and the  
western CONUS, offset by some disagreements in the eastern U.S.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/fxus06.html

Well we shouldn’t necessarily be excited that noaa think the gfs 12z op for day 11 is a good representation of where they think upstream will be … mind you, upstream with the big block across the hemisphere looks good - it’s was downstream in our sector that didn’t 

  • Like 1
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  • Insightful 1
Posted
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snowy, Hot and Dry, Blizzard Conditions
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snowy, Hot and Dry, Blizzard Conditions
Posted
8 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Interesting graphics on latest bbc forecast - best case scenario really with a spell of snow in the south later next week then a return to cold!! 🧐
Thurs through to Sat below 

Could contain: Person, Outdoors, Nature, Plot, Chart

Could contain: Person, Outdoors, Nature, Hurricane, Storm

Could contain: Person, Nature, Outdoors

Could contain: Outdoors, Nature, Person, Hurricane, Storm

I wouldn't take these graphics so seriously. Especially when showing SLP charts as resolution is lower. Precipitation is there as a guide on not a guarantee. Will very depend how conditions are on the ground.

ECM op looked tasty didn't it, however!!

  • Like 2
Posted
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl
  • Weather Preferences: the weather extremes in general but my favourites are snow & thunderstorms
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl
Posted
2 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

My punt- nxt week will be a snowy 1- with most involved, things ramping up now....classic classic pop up feature notions...

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I really hope your right, think all we need is a bit of a tilt to the flow either nw or ne rather than straight north, that should encourage showers to push inland

  • Like 6
Posted
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snowy, Hot and Dry, Blizzard Conditions
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snowy, Hot and Dry, Blizzard Conditions
Posted
4 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

My punt- nxt week will be a snowy 1- with most involved, things ramping up now....classic classic pop up feature notions...

Could contain: Plot, Chart, Nature, Outdoors, Map

agreed. Surprises almost anywhere. Everyone will AT LEAST experience something frozen falling from the sky. 

  • Like 3
  • Thanks 1
Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
Posted

Anyone else watching the movement of purple vortex blob to our north east from around 144 

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  • Like 7
Posted
  • Location: Bishops Cleeve, Cheltenham. 300 M ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes, the very hot and the very cold.
  • Location: Bishops Cleeve, Cheltenham. 300 M ASL
Posted
32 minutes ago, irish1 said:

Could contain: Plot, Chart, Map, Atlas, Diagram

Track of storm firmly South now, chances of frontal snow look to have faded away but will help keep the cold locked in.

Yes. If you following these storms during the hurricane season in the Caribbean, it is always the High Pressure ridges which direct the storms. The strength of the -NAO is steering this one South. 

  • Like 3
  • Insightful 2
Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire
Posted

T168 the uppers are pretty impressive. 

Could contain: Nature, Outdoors, Plot, Chart, Storm, Sea, Water, Lightning, Thunderstorm

  • Like 8
Posted
  • Location: Bury St Edmunds, Suffolk
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, frost and snow
  • Location: Bury St Edmunds, Suffolk
Posted
1 minute ago, TSNWK said:

Anyone else watching the movement of purple vortex blob to our north east from around 144 

Could contain: Plot, Chart, Outdoors, Nature

Closer look, it looks like some alien trying to suck the UK into it's midst 😂

  • Like 2
Posted
  • Location: North London
  • Location: North London
Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, Cleeve Hill said:

Yes. If you following these storms during the hurricane season in the Caribbean, it is always the High Pressure ridges which direct the storms. The strength of the -NAO is steering this one South. 

Yep they never steer themselves, if a ridge collapses they just stall like Hurricane Dorian did. This was never going north like models had it previously 

 

Also think we have to give kudos to the GEM for spotting the vortex profile days ago

Edited by Howie
  • Like 2
  • Insightful 1
Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
Posted

Quite a few now saying boring cold spell after couple of days with no snow! Bit like being being a couple of days into an Heatwave and saying...yeh but still no sun! 

Here's ya little snow blob for Central/Southern parts on Sunday...also perhaps some to look out for in the SE....but unless our Southern members gets snow very soon I'm afraid this cold snap will go down in history as the biggest fail ever...(according to them) you know what I'm saying 😉

Further into next week perhaps more of a surge from the North with those snow showers and down the North Sea.. just micro adjustments with that wind speed and direction and many areas could see some!

In the shorter term enjoy the fantastic glaze of the ice and Frost all over the land the next few days. And remember to top up your anti freeze...dont get putting screen wash in like me...✨😩

Could contain: Plot, Chart, Map, Atlas, Diagram, Sea, Water, Outdoors, Nature, Land

Could contain: Plot, Chart, Map, Atlas, Diagram, Sea, Water, Outdoors, Nature

  • Like 6
  • Insightful 1
Posted
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: Storm, drizzle
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
Posted
1 minute ago, Howie said:

Yep they never steer themselves, if a ridge collapses they just stall like Hurricane Dorian did. This was never going north like models had it previously 

Not necessarily true, depends on the phase the 'Hurricane' is in. For example, a Hurricane with a strengthening tail will follow the upper level flow hence Hurricane Fiona took a more westerly track than initially forecast because that was where the upper-level flow took it. So it really depends on what phase it's in but as a general rule of thumb I'd suggest that you're correct here.

  • Insightful 5
Posted
  • Location: Cork City(Southern Ireland)
  • Location: Cork City(Southern Ireland)
Posted

Plenty snow reports across Dublin this evening from just a small rash of showers! Great charts this evening but I will always worry when I see heights so weak to our North

  • Like 2
  • Thanks 1
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