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Please keep your posts to discussing the model output in this thread, and for more general winter weather chat please use the winter chat, moans and ramps thread.

The model highlights thread is also available for a more concise view of the model discussions. 

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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
Posted
2 hours ago, bluearmy said:

If the NH profile is unusual then everything needs to be treated with caution imo. 

if you head back to 2010, I recall Stewart telling us that despite the nwp showing the demise of the greeny block, it woud not verify like that and within a few days, back it came on the extended ens …… one would hope that more than a decade on, the models would be better!  But they’ve proved over the past week that they probably aren’t …….

Det and op are the same 

Thanks BA, northwestsnow puts det looks good. Bit confusing 👍👍snowing in Sheffield 🤗

  • Like 3
Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill
Posted

The big three between D8-9 show that models are struggling late next week:

ECMCould contain: Plot, Chart, Graphics, Art, PersonGEMCould contain: Plot, Chart, Graphics, ArtGFSCould contain: Plot, Chart, Nature, Outdoors

Just subtle differences earlier in the run around D5 with a wedge of heights pushing SE off the Greenland heights:

Could contain: Nature, Outdoors, Plot, Chart, Hurricane, Storm

GEM is worse case, ECM best case, and GFS something in-between.

  • Like 2
  • Thanks 1
Posted
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl
  • Weather Preferences: the weather extremes in general but my favourites are snow & thunderstorms
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl
Posted
1 minute ago, Kasim Awan said:

Possibility of big accumulations tomorrow night in parts of low lying NW England as an onshore wind develops streamer activity heading into a cold surface layer.

 

Iv got my eye on that too, just thinking there’s a chance it could push them into the midlands possibly 

  • Like 8
Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Warm and dry, or very cold. See my profile for model trivia
  • Location: Dorset
Posted
18 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

Anyone else watching the movement of purple vortex blob to our north east from around 144 

Could contain: Plot, Chart, Outdoors, Nature

Can you imagine...

Could contain: Plot, Chart, Accessories, Art, Outdoors

  • Like 3
Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
Posted (edited)
4 hours ago, radiohead said:

Snow for pretty much everyone on the ECM tonight 😅

Could contain: Plot, Chart, Map, Atlas, Diagram, Person

Yes, not looking too shabby for my location either! 

Edited by Don
Posted
  • Location: Wath upon Dearne, Rotherham
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, severe frost, freezing fog and summer sunshine
  • Location: Wath upon Dearne, Rotherham
Posted
12 minutes ago, The Enforcer said:

As of 22:20 there is the first significant incursion of precipitation into mainland England (Yorkshire/Nottinghamshire/Derbyshire):

Could contain: Plot, Chart, Map, Atlas, Diagram

What did the hi-res short-range models predict?

NMM T+10 - underplayed:

Could contain: Plot, Chart, Nature, Outdoors, Person, Map

UKMO T+10 - non-existent:

Could contain: Plot, Chart, Map, Atlas, Diagram, Bow, Weapon

Arpege T+10 - skirts the coast:

Could contain: Plot, Chart, Map, Atlas, Diagram, Outdoors, Nature

ICON T+4 - underplayed:

Could contain: Plot, Chart, Outdoors, Nature, Sea, Water, Land, Map, Shoreline

Conclusion: it doesn't matter if the models suggest it is going to remain dry.

I can confirm it is snowing in South Yorkshire just now...

  • Like 5
Posted
  • Location: Denby,Derbyshire,90m/295ft asl De5
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms/Clear and Frosty/Snow Showers
  • Location: Denby,Derbyshire,90m/295ft asl De5
Posted
1 hour ago, MATTWOLVES said:

Nice icon..Better corridor for Heights around Greenland...Nice build of heights East of scandi also..such a petty they only run it to day 5 at night..They must like to finish early 😉

Could contain: Plot, Chart, Outdoors

Could contain: Art, Plot, Chart, Accessories, Outdoors, Pattern, Graphics

 

Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
Posted

Gfs again finds a weak surface high to our east days 9/10/11

this feature does have a little more support today on the basis that the Atlantic trough heading ene could stall somewhat to our west and drive some WAA. Of course Scandinavia will also be v cold which could also encourage such a feature to establish 

 

  • Like 5
Posted
  • Location: Abingdon - 55m ASL - Capital of The Central Southern England Corridor of Winter Convectionlessness
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Snow>Freezing Fog; Summer: Sun>Daytime Storms
  • Location: Abingdon - 55m ASL - Capital of The Central Southern England Corridor of Winter Convectionlessness
Posted (edited)
10 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

UKV from yesterday:

Could contain: Plot, Chart, Map, Atlas, Diagram Could contain: Plot, Chart, Map, Atlas, Diagram

Timings a little out, but pretty good on the precip distribution!

 

25 minutes ago, The Enforcer said:

As of 22:20 there is the first significant incursion of precipitation into mainland England (Yorkshire/Nottinghamshire/Derbyshire):

Could contain: Plot, Chart, Map, Atlas, Diagram

 

Gold star for UKV at T+28: only 4 hours too early.

Edited by The Enforcer
  • Like 4
Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
Posted

What's crucial is we've actually got the cold in this time without it being cancelled at the last minute!  Plenty of snow chances to come at some point.

  • Like 6
Posted
  • Location: North East Hampshire
  • Location: North East Hampshire
Posted

Interesting that even when GFS tries to break the pattern down, not a single front can make it past the meridian. 

  • Like 4
  • Insightful 1
Posted
  • Location: Woking
  • Weather Preferences: Anything unusual works for me...!
  • Location: Woking
Posted
28 minutes ago, IDO said:

The big three between D8-9 show that models are struggling late next week:

ECMCould contain: Plot, Chart, Graphics, Art, PersonGEMCould contain: Plot, Chart, Graphics, ArtGFSCould contain: Plot, Chart, Nature, Outdoors

Just subtle differences earlier in the run around D5 with a wedge of heights pushing SE off the Greenland heights:

Could contain: Nature, Outdoors, Plot, Chart, Hurricane, Storm

GEM is worse case, ECM best case, and GFS something in-between.

….or, that the range of potential outcomes is still quite broad.

  • Like 1
Posted
  • Location: Hessle
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hessle
Posted (edited)

18z ens looking a bit messy for the middle / later part of next week. The majority are cold with a northerly influence but a higher number of ens members compared to previous runs develop secondary features around that Azores low. 9 members have mild air making inroads, with some snow to rain events in places. Obviously northern areas would be favoured in such a scenario for something more prolonged snow-wise.

Quite a few more have a channel low too, is this Azores low saga still not finished? Probably an 18z wobble. Hopefully tomorrow can improve on that Greenland High signal!

Edited by Quicksilver1989
  • Like 7
  • Thanks 1
Posted
  • Location: Glasgow
  • Location: Glasgow
Posted

Would be nice to get next week nailed down, then we can look further ahead. Still a bit messy.

  • Like 3
Posted
  • Location: Leicester, East Midlands
  • Location: Leicester, East Midlands
Posted
3 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:

..but basically we need to reserve judgement until it runs its cause

*course

  • Like 1
  • Insightful 3
Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire
Posted (edited)

I wouldn’t have thought it would be long before we have anther go at a cold spell looking at the end of the gfs run . Definitely not a normal NH for the last third of December. Or we might just carry on with the one we’re currently in ? You never know 👍

Could contain: Outdoors, Nature, Graphics, Art, Pattern, Accessories, Modern Art, Ketchup, Food

Could contain: Nature, Outdoors, Plot, Chart, Sea, Water, Blackboard, Land

Could contain: Outdoors, Nature, Plot, Chart

Edited by ICE COLD
  • Like 6
Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
Posted
2 minutes ago, carled said:

*course

Predictive text and typing quickly I'm afraid! So very sorry!!

  • Like 4
Posted
  • Location: St rads Dover
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, T Storms.
  • Location: St rads Dover
Posted
2 hours ago, RainAllNight said:

Return to zonal flow confirmed, no height anomalies at all 🤣

Could contain: Plot, Chart, Map, Atlas, Diagram, Person

Lol no anomalies at all, think it's broken.  Must be lost.

  • Like 2
  • Insightful 1
Posted
  • Location: Woking
  • Weather Preferences: Anything unusual works for me...!
  • Location: Woking
Posted

Could parts of the SE see patches of freezing fog early Saturday and Sunday mornings..? On occasion this can be quite a (dangerous) spectacle.

  • Like 3
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