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Please keep your posts to discussing the model output in this thread, and for more general winter weather chat please use the winter chat, moans and ramps thread.

The model highlights thread is also available for a more concise view of the model discussions. 

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Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
Posted

My word, the Icon is a thing of beauty up to 120hrs. Streamers piling in down the east coast! 

  • Like 5
Posted
  • Location: Coventry
  • Location: Coventry
Posted
9 minutes ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

My word, the Icon is a thing of beauty up to 120hrs. Streamers piling in down the east coast! 

Very nice run

 

 

animaav2.gif

  • Like 9
Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Weather Preferences: Deep Deep Snow causing chaos
  • Location: Banbury
Posted

UN72-21.GIF?09-04

UN96-21.GIF?09-04

UN120-21.GIF?09-05

Id say a threat of snow across parts of England and Wales , looking at the 120 

  • Like 5
Posted
  • Location: Moortown/shadwell-145m-leeds.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and hot sunny weather.
  • Location: Moortown/shadwell-145m-leeds.
Posted

Fantastic ukmo this morning.

Bound to deliver snow to many.

Will it even upgrade further?

  • Like 8
Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate. Elevation : Garbage
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate. Elevation : Garbage
Posted

its just that shortwave being ejected into the Atlantic from the main body of scandi troughing thats the problem - if it wasn't for that we would be looking at another 17th Dec 2010 - its on the UKMO and GFS.

  • Like 1
Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
Posted (edited)

Gfs 00z for comparison!- we are now firming.. the depleted height syncs @ Greenland are of gain going forthcoming, we’ll highly likely start looking for bk drag heights- from the trough into Scandinavia... fabulous 00z-runs 🤘

1841A278-865F-4D35-A681-27E9C98E79E5.gif

Could contain: Plot, Chart, Nature, Outdoors

Edited by tight isobar
  • Like 3
Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Weather Preferences: Deep Deep Snow causing chaos
  • Location: Banbury
Posted (edited)

IMBYism ........not liking the GFS , no real threat of snow 96-144

gfsnh-0-192.png

Will it build a Scandi going forward 

Edited by MJB
  • Like 1
Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
Posted
1 minute ago, MJB said:

IMBYism ........not liking the GFS , no real threat of snow 

There are plenty between ohrs /144- the clockwork momentum will ultimately swing in some south euro heights into the uk- but them- in themselves will cause gain of cold sequences...

  • Like 1
Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Weather Preferences: Deep Deep Snow causing chaos
  • Location: Banbury
Posted
3 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

There are plenty between ohrs /144- the clockwork momentum will ultimately swing in some south euro heights into the uk- but them- in themselves will cause gain of cold sequences...

I don't see that at all ..............but we will see 

  • Like 2
Posted
  • Location: Tyrone
  • Location: Tyrone
Posted
5 minutes ago, MJB said:

IMBYism ........not liking the GFS , no real threat of snow 96-144

gfsnh-0-192.png

Will it build a Scandi going forward 

Yea cold and dry for pretty much all of us what we have now more or less, all lovely to look at but for me in a spell like this you need snow I'd be lying in saying I'm starting to get a little bit frustrated but fingers crossed 🤞 

  • Like 3
  • Insightful 2
Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Weather Preferences: Deep Deep Snow causing chaos
  • Location: Banbury
Posted
1 minute ago, booferking said:

Yea cold and dry for pretty much all of us what we have now more or less, all lovely to look at but for me in a spell like this you need snow I'd be lying in saying I'm starting to get a little bit frustrated but fingers crossed 🤞 

yes agree, it's a decent cold spell but with v little activity on the cards ............of course it could change . UK shows some hope , let's see if the ECM agrees 

  • Like 2
  • Insightful 1
Posted
  • Location: Tyrone
  • Location: Tyrone
Posted
Just now, MJB said:

yes agree, it's a decent cold spell but with v little activity on the cards ............of course it could change . UK shows some hope , let's see if the ECM agrees 

Yep fingers crossed 🤞 this spell can be memorable for most of us snow wise before it resets.

  • Like 1
Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
Posted

The GEM decides to bring a Bartlett in at the end of the run! You have to laugh. Straight in the bin that one goes, I’m sorry. A broken clock can tell the right time twice a day! 

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
Posted

UKMO very good and consistent again this morning.  T168 chart out now:

Could contain: Plot, Chart, OutdoorsCould contain: Plot, Chart, Outdoors, Art, Nature

Deals with the ‘tropical storm’ low with the minimum of fuss, keeping UK cold for the foreseeable.  

  • Like 9
Posted
  • Location: bingley,west yorks. 100 asl
  • Location: bingley,west yorks. 100 asl
Posted

Ukmo looks decent but GFS a horror for prolonging this cold spell.

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
Posted

Difference between the GEM and ICON very large for our neck of the woods at T180:

Could contain: Outdoors, Nature, Art, Poster, Advertisement, Graphics, Modern ArtCould contain: Plot, Chart, Outdoors, Nature

Really is all about how the models handle the next low (circled on ICON chart, which has a slight negative tilt) - need to keep it separate from the rest of the low heights to the NE.  GEM doesn’t do this and for the second time running gives us a vomit run…

I still think it is entirely possible that the models haven’t got the initial Greenland high - the one we’ve got now - right.  The ICON this morning has highish heights there throughout the run, whereas they dissipate on the GEM - and the GFS at T180 which is also a poor run:

Could contain: Outdoors, Nature, Art

Models are known to underestimate blocks in this region, and I would not be surprised if given a couple of days, the picture is changed somewhat with a stronger Greenland block persisting.  

  • Like 4
  • Thanks 1
  • Insightful 3
Posted
  • Location: Windsor
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold
  • Location: Windsor
Posted (edited)

Not great from the GFS 18z suite after next weekend.

Not much snow either shown.

 

Could contain: Chart, Line Chart, Plot

Edited by prolongedSnowLover
  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate. Elevation : Garbage
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate. Elevation : Garbage
Posted
Just now, prolongedSnowLover said:

Not great from the GFS 18z suite.

Not much snow either shown.

 

Could contain: Chart, Line Chart, Plot

better 0z though. more signs of another Atlantic ridge keeping cold longer and giving more of a chance for scandi trough to drop further south.

  • Like 1
Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Posted (edited)

The GFS op run isn't all bad. We see wave break after wave break which, by the end of the run leads to this

Could contain: Plot, Chart, Nature, Outdoors, Sea, Water, Map, Hurricane, Storm, Face

CFS is almost certainly seeing a January SSW now because its February anomalies have that 'look' i.e reds and oranges in the Arctic locale. Take no notice of the Atlantic profile for now, it won't have a handle on that

Could contain: Plot, Chart, Map, Atlas, Diagram

 

Edited by CreweCold
  • Like 2
  • Thanks 1
  • Insightful 2
Posted
  • Location: Dipton, Nr Consett, Co.Durham, 250m, 777ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Anything but boringly hot
  • Location: Dipton, Nr Consett, Co.Durham, 250m, 777ft asl
Posted

First time Christmas showing in the runs, so be rude not to

Could contain: Plot, Chart, Atlas, Map, Diagram, Rainforest, Vegetation, Tree, Plant, Outdoors

  • Like 1
Posted
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales
Posted

From the evidence to hand, solid agreement for it to stay cold and dry for another week or so, best chance of anything more widespread regarding shower activity away from the north east around this time next week, before a powder puff change to less cold nextweekend.

  • Like 1
Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: heavy convective snow showers, blizzards, 30C sunshine
  • Location: Darlington
Posted

So seems like our cold spell shows signs of coming to an end next weekend. I just hope more people get to see some snow. I think we will be relying on small features popping up at short notice because the next week looks to be bone dry away from Eastern facing coasts. 

  • Like 2
  • Insightful 1
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