Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived

[Ali1977]

Very cold ecm at T144, better than UKMO for cold but not sure on any snow!! 

[sheikhy]

Good grief ecm at 144 hours!!!goodbye GEM stay in the cannon fodder bucket!!!!

[ICE COLD]

Oh yes that’ll work . ECM 144

[Kentish Snowman in Yorks]

Is it just me or have the GFS ensembles trended much colder in the 7-8 day time frame on the 12z run?  The end of next week looks much colder than it did this time yesterday?  A fair few -10 and below runs in there I believe? 

[ICE COLD]

Where is everyone ? Finding it hard to contain myself

[BlueHedgehog074]

10 minutes ago, Captain Shortwave said:

ECM day 5

 

I don’t think this will be as clean as the UKMO as you can see a portion of the Azores low breaking away eastwards. The jury is out as to whether the parent low will follow or stall in the Atlantic.

 

The Low does seem to split into 2 puny pieces at 144 hours with a very cold Northerly to North-Easterly dominating the UK. -10*C 850 hPa temperature line close to Northern Scotland.

That would also be a nice wintry present for the South-East should some those ECMWF precipitation charts posted above for Sunday come off

Edited December 8, 2022 by DiagonalRedLine

[Skullzrulerz]

Just now, ICE COLD said:

Where is everyone ? Finding it hard to contain myself

Too busy trying to find some snow .

Actually that's quite impressive truth be told with the 850 temperatures, I wonder what the temperatures on the ground would be?

[MJB]

1 minute ago, ICE COLD said:

Where is everyone ? Finding it hard to contain myself

Yes it's cold but that is it , nice to look at but with no snow to discuss , where's the excitement ?, I'd rather a high-risk scenario  

[Battleground Snow]

3 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Where is everyone ? Finding it hard to contain myself

Surely be a few showers/streamers off that northernly even though the raw output probably looks dry

Edited December 8, 2022 by Battleground Snow

[TSNWK]

now to box in the Greenland heights to lock this in and extend duration of pop up surprises for us all

[MJB]

Just now, Battleground Snow said:

Surely be a few showers/streamers off that northernly even though the raw output probably looks dry

Need a decent change in wind direction for you and I to get something or a decent frontal system to attack 

[Radiating Dendrite]

Just now, Battleground Snow said:

Surely be a few showers/steamers off that northernly even though the raw output probably looks dry

Get the 850s a couple of degrees lower and the north sea snow machine would go into overdrive. 

[phil nw.]

5 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Very cold ecm at T144, better than UKMO for cold but not sure on any snow!! 

I would take the Ecm option at t144 all day to reenforce the cold.

Not sure many would get snow on the UK model anyway Ali.

 

[Mike Poole]

ECM T168:

Well the low has been swallowed without incident, and indeed, without snow.  But the depth of ongoing cold is quite impressive.  Looks like it will last too.

[Ali1977]

168 is still v cold, surely more snow chances popping up in that!! Not sure the cold will hold on heading to day 10 though. 

[Downburst]

Just now, Radiating Dendrite said:

Get the 850s a couple of degrees lower and the north sea snow machine would go into overdrive. 

With that sea level pressure?

[TSNWK]

Just now, Ali1977 said:

168 is still v cold, surely more snow chances popping up in that!! Not sure the cold will hold on heading to day 10 though. 

agree. I'm seeing west base NAO risk here increasing day 8 onwards how odd to be wishing for some energy into Greenland

[Radiating Dendrite]

Just now, Downburst said:

With that sea level pressure?

Given the low Dam and cold uppers the sea pressure is largely irrelevant. We have seen easterlies deliver snow showers at such pressures.

[Tim Bland]

This is as close as the low / precip gets to the south ….

[claret047]

1 hour ago, Cold Winter Night said:

New data are gathered (weather stations, satellites, airplanes, etc) every time at 0z, 12z etc. though some data are older or not available every run.
Then from all those data, the 0h starting state of the atmosphere (and oceans) is calculated. So the starting point is not a blank canvas.

From there, the equations representing the physical process of the atmosphere, oceans, and ice produce every next step.

If you would like to learn more about the ECMWF IFS model (EC/EPS), this is recommended reading:

1 Introduction - Forecast User Guide - ECMWF Confluence Wiki

CONFLUENCE.ECMWF.INT

 

Many thanks for your reply. I will read the link you have so kindly provided.

[MJB]

Just now, Tim Bland said:

This is as close as the low / precip gets to the south ….

No good to anyone that lol

[Derecho]

Great EC and the Greenland High option is looking more likely. I do wonder how sharp a northerly could be... though on the EC we don't quite get to see as a shortwave diverts the coldest air west.

[Skullzrulerz]

4 minutes ago, MJB said:

No good to anyone that lol

Isle of Wight wins the jackpot!

What about the earlier frames? 

I suppose on the other side, the cold air doesn't get pushed out as such due to it being on a southern track.

[seabreeze86]

ECM brings a band of snow across the country at 192hrs .

[Downburst]

My word, no end in sight to the cold. Next Friday and the Spanish are in on the game. 

516 dam into northern Scotland next Friday too.

-8 to -12 2 meter temps over north of Scotland. -4 to -8 large part’s of Ireland