Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived

[alexisj9]

3 hours ago, snowstorm445 said:

Yeah the Icon outcome is pretty favourable to us here in the Low Countries. Nearly 24 hours of snow by the looks of it! Seems odd that it wouldn't lead to more streamers heading into Southern England as well with those tight isobars.

I expect it will do so, the models don't always pick streamers out this early. We'll see what happens Monday I guess, just hoping the low doesn't go too far north, or northwest like the GFS was showing yesterday.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Just now, Bricriu said:

I think many people at that stage may welcome an attempted breakdown if we remain largely dry up to that point. This has a feel of March 2013, the milder air might keep being pushed back. Even in the worst case scenario, given the entrenched cold it surely would go with a bang over a lot of the UK

Yeh...at some point there is gonna be an attempt to push milder conditions through. Sometimes you will end up with a Low pressure and several fronts lining up,the first one will attempt to shift the cold block bringing the snowfall and then a 2nd and 3rd attempt with these fronts to try and power through! This is usually the situation when these fronts are coming in from the West...but I'm not seeing much in the way of Atlantic oomph to fire these systems through,especially if they're gonna be coming up against a block of cold that's been in place for at least 10 days.

The attempted breakdown could become very interesting when it comes around...usually when the Atlantic is picking up its zest and the cold as only been in place for a few days...you know it spells the end of the cold! This time things seem very very different.

I remember my Grandad once telling me that during the Winter of 63...listening to the BBC radio broadcast so many times they would state that the milder conditions would be pushing through!  Well we all know how that turned out! It never made it.

Perhaps a touch of dreaming there from yours truelly but you just never really know until that pattern tries to play out.

[Anthony Burden]

Evening all,ECM 12z now showing low pressures heading on a more south eastern direction into the Iberian peninsula,beginning to look a lengthy cold very cold period of mostly dry weather.The breakdown being ever pushed further away and again just reiterating how stubborn the Greenland high can be and once this very dense heavy cold air becomes established it will take some major Atlantic push along with some weakening of northern blocking,untill then when ever that maybe a very Christmas weather feeling of which only happens once in a blue moon.Enjoy 

[Methuselah]

The thing about attempted breakdowns is that they ain't what they used to be: the twelve-hour-long dumpings of old seem to have long-gone... Five minutes' sleet and graupel seem to be all we can expect, these days?

But, anywho, I still keep looking for the Holy Grail!

Edited December 8, 2022 by Ed Stone

[Cambrian]

Having low pressure to the west isn’t always a bad thing!

Just goes to show what we can get when we have a so-called warm sector fully embedded in a long wave cold trough….

  

12z ECM at day 8 and the result of it on the ground by day 9 - made my day!

[Battleground Snow]

12 minutes ago, bryan629 said:

Not sure about any snow on the 24th from this but -12 uppers into southern England on the 24th courtesy of the Gem control. 

The 12z Gem op was put on the naughty chair but the control you would want not kick out of bed !! 

I thought the ECM op until 168 pretty much followed it too .. worth a look 

Meteociel - Cartes Ensemble GEM (GENS GEM / CMC ENS)

WWW.METEOCIEL.FR

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meteociel propose des rubriques météo temps réel, forums, modeles...

 

 

 

The gem OP was an outlier if anyone cares

Mean attached for 240, pretty similar to ecm 

[Lampostwatcher]

19 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Regards snow, the middle to end of next week still has plenty of snow about for most.

I've seen a chart like that at t48 still didnt come off lol

[iowpompeylee]

46 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

This is as close as the low / precip gets to the south ….

I’m on the Isle of Wight! Bullseye

[Mapantz]

I'm sure those ECM precip-type total charts don't take melt in to account?! I could be wrong but I thought it's more of a virtual total, if you will.. 

[Met4Cast]

Just now, Mapantz said:

I'm sure those ECM precip-type total charts don't take melt in to account?! I could be wrong but I thought it's more of a virtual total, if you will.. 

Yes, also includes sleet & hail as accumulating snowfall so often massively over-estimates the totals. 

Better to stick with CAM models for totals, ie UKV/AROME 

[Fozfoster]

5 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

The thing about attempted breakdowns is that they ain't what they used to be: they twelve-hour-long dumpings of old seem to have long-gone... Five minutes' sleet and graupel seem to be all we can expect, these days?

But, anywho, I still keep looking for the Holy Grail!

Maybe this year Ed, and before I’m to old to get outside and do some sledging

[chris55]

2 hours ago, TSNWK said:

 an agreeable UKM  - un settled from the north east and looking nicely primed for next weekend, as the over spain is movin eastward.

Where on earth has the trop PV gone!! These charts are super rare!! Canada is visible….not purple :0
 

Surely snowfall will come one way or another with such exceptional NH Synoptics. 

Great times to be in the MOD

The snow WILL come….. 
 

 

[northwestsnow]

GLORIOUS EC DET

coldies, it really doesnt get much better in mid December ...

day 10 surface  temps reveal the UK in the freezer still.

 

 

Already frozen solid here.

Edited December 8, 2022 by northwestsnow

[joggs]

9 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

GLORIOUS EC DET

coldies, it really doesnt get much better in mid December ...

day 10 surface  temps reveal the UK in the freezer still.

 

Is it just me who thinks if the low well sw phases we are well in danger of a -nao westerly based attack?.

On there the higher pressure over Greenland is too far west imo.

Coukd we'll be swlys quicker than people think.

Just to say,I hope not.

Edited December 8, 2022 by joggs

[feb1991blizzard]

3 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

I'm sure those ECM precip-type total charts don't take melt in to account?! I could be wrong but I thought it's more of a virtual total, if you will.. 

i think they are complete rubbish anyway, Nick L used to post the correct data for the corresponding timeframe, and id guess on average they used to read a 5th to a 10th of those snow charts, in the run up to 10th Dec 2017, it showed 18 inches for Manchester City Centre, and its done similar many times, there has only been 6 inches here twice since 78-9 - it wouldn't surprise me if there has never been 18 inches here recorded even in the LIA.

[Snowmadsam]

1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

i think they are complete rubbish anyway, Nick L used to post the correct data for the corresponding timeframe, and id guess on average they used to read a 5th to a 10th of those snow charts, in the run up to 10th Dec 2017, it showed 18 inches for Manchester City Centre, and its done similar many times, there has only been 6 inches here twice since 78-9 - it wouldn't surprise me if there has never been 18 inches here recorded even in the LIA.

Agreed. I don't read them anymore either. Usually in these cases I close my blinds and wait and see what's on the ground. Saves the disappointment. All weather models are indicators, they aren't right or wrong they indicate potential. Usually when things verify there's always a strong suggestion that the potential has been matched. But I always read them as to what COULD happen as opposed to what WILL happen. That's why we have things like Ensembles, Control runs etc etc. 

[Optimus Prime]

4 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

i think they are complete rubbish anyway, Nick L used to post the correct data for the corresponding timeframe, and id guess on average they used to read a 5th to a 10th of those snow charts, in the run up to 10th Dec 2017, it showed 18 inches for Manchester City Centre, and its done similar many times, there has only been 6 inches here twice since 78-9 - it wouldn't surprise me if there has never been 18 inches here recorded even in the LIA.

The snow depth charts are generally terrible at that range

[nick sussex]

9 minutes ago, joggs said:

Is it just me who thinks if the low well sw phases we are well in danger of a westerly based attack?.

On there the higher pressure over Greenland is too far west imo.

Coukd we'll be swlys quicker than people think.

Just to say,I hope not.

The ECM just about avoids that by finally boxing in the high between day 8 and 9 and stopping the heights from escaping into Arctic Canada .

Once those heights escape there’s little forcing in the Atlantic sector which then allows lows there an easier route to move into the UK .

There is a lot of uncertainty later in the eastern Pacific which impacts the USA and Canada and subsequently effects the behaviour of the blocking over Greenland .

 

Edited December 8, 2022 by nick sussex

[northwestsnow]

8 minutes ago, joggs said:

Is it just me who thinks if the low well sw phases we are well in danger of a -nao westerly based attack?.

On there the higher pressure over Greenland is too far west imo.

Coukd we'll be swlys quicker than people think.

Just to say,I hope not.

There is always that risk..

Enjoying the seasonal weather here,EC is still sub zero at day 10

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Lovely set of cold 12s from mogreps...I think we can say its looking cold for at least 8-10 days.

Beyond that an attempt of a breakdown.. its almost like waiting for Xmas day...you can kinda feel the tension and excitement build each day...Mind you I wear huggies...cause I'm a big boy now

@Ed Stone even the magical Pete gets a cold set! Just need some flakes now mate

 

Edited December 8, 2022 by MATTWOLVES

[bluearmy]

9 minutes ago, joggs said:

Is it just me who thinks if the low well sw phases we are well in danger of a -nao westerly based attack?.

On there the higher pressure over Greenland is too far west imo.

Coukd we'll be swlys quicker than people think.

Just to say,I hope not.

I think that despite the ec day 10 churning out the same system approaching from the sw as the 00% run. I wouldn’t bother over analysing to that extent at such a range ……

[feb1991blizzard]

2 minutes ago, Optimus Prime said:

The snow depth charts are generally terrible at that range

point im making though is those ones don't even correlate IF the exact synoptic verified with a correlation of 1.

[ScottSnow]

The snow has arrived here (pic taken an hour ago with no melting since).

Looks like we are going to see a lengthy cold spell. The models don’t really show any threat of a breakdown in the reliable timeframes. It would be great if this hung in until Christmas.

 

[bluearmy]

Clusters are delayed 

hope the 46 isn’t aswell …..

[Midlands Ice Age]

12 minutes ago, joggs said:

Is it just me who thinks if the low well sw phases we are well in danger of a -nao westerly based attack?.

On there the higher pressure over Greenland is too far west imo.

Coukd we'll be swlys quicker than people think.

Just to say,I hope not.

We have just had a 'great escape' with this pattern, I would even say it is a very lucky outcome.

MIA