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Model Output Discussion - Christmas week and beyond

nick sussex

By nick sussex
in Forecast Model Discussion

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Paul
Message added by Paul,

Please keep your posts to discussing the model output in this thread, and for more general winter weather chat please use the winter chat, moans and ramps thread.

The model highlights thread is also available for a more concise view of the model discussions. 

Be kind -- Stay on topic -- Share your knowledge -- Be polite -- Be honest -- Be tolerant -- Be family-friendly

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Northern Sky Aficionado

Northern Sky

Posted
  • Location: North West Leeds 124m
  • Location: North West Leeds 124m
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Posted

Just a quick grammatical aside...

Why do people write "an SSW"? Surely there is no need for the n?Isn't it just a SSW?

Sorry, carry on.

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Eagle Eye Maestro

Eagle Eye

Posted
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: Storm, drizzle
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
Posted
2 minutes ago, Northern Sky said:

Just a quick grammatical aside...

Why do people write "an SSW"? Surely there is no need for the n?Isn't it just a SSW?

Sorry, carry on.

Autocorrect probably , well it is for me anyway 😆, I really should read some of my posts though because the amount of Autocorrect changes sometimes makes my point entirely different than what it's intended to be.

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Snowy L Maestro

Snowy L

Posted
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent (90m), Larnaka most Augusts
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent (90m), Larnaka most Augusts
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Posted
5 minutes ago, Northern Sky said:

Just a quick grammatical aside...

Why do people write "an SSW"? Surely there is no need for the n?Isn't it just a SSW?

Sorry, carry on.

S is phonetically pronounced as ess, so as it starts with a vowel sound, you use an.

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Turnedoutniceagain Seasoned

Turnedoutniceagain

Posted
  • Location: Atherstone on Stour: 160ft asl
  • Location: Atherstone on Stour: 160ft asl
Posted
21 minutes ago, JBMWeatherForever said:

We haven't had many cold Januarys recently, but the potential for this year to be different is now becoming easier to see, and its the trend that is now clearly our friend !

10ft of snow mid-Jan'. I know because James Madden said so in the Daily Express 🤣

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Lukesluckybunch Accomplished

Lukesluckybunch

Posted
  • Location: Bicester
  • Location: Bicester
Posted
1 hour ago, nick sussex said:

The GFS 06 hrs run picks up the UKMO baton and almost makes the finishing line ! 

Remember that UKMO tweak I was hoping for , we just need another little tweak this evening ! 

You can see by the ECM ensembles that the mean keeps the rounded troughing and if the ensembles were more bullish on the sharper troughing we might have seen more colder members .

Could there be a dramatic development this evening ?

 

nice post nick!

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Lukesluckybunch Accomplished

Lukesluckybunch

Posted
  • Location: Bicester
  • Location: Bicester
Posted

just home from work...looking at the 6z we arent a million miles away from that very cold air over scandi at 144.perhaps on the next run lows out west wont be as intense and we can get a stronger block over scandi and move that cold air over the uk..is this outcome likely to happen or will it stay over scandi?

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Don Maestro

Don

Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
Posted
2 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

i saw on weatheronline the month ahead forecast is for higher pressure to gradually take hold for january and falling temperatures..frost and fog becoming a theme!

Better than sludge and muck, aye?!

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shawty1984 Contributor

shawty1984

Posted
  • Location: Thornaby-on-Tees
  • Location: Thornaby-on-Tees
Posted
9 minutes ago, JBMWeatherForever said:

We haven't had many cold Januarys recently, but the potential for this year to be different is now becoming easier to see, and its the trend that is now clearly our friend !

There is potential every year, nothing makes this new year any special. It's like groundhog year on these forums sometimes.

And while on the subject, people need to stop comparing past weather events to what they are seeing because it looks vaguely similar by 10%. The last cold spell, there was people shouting 2010 all over. In 2010, I had a foot of snow and snow lying on the ground for nearly a month. Last cold spell, I seen about 50 flakes of snow in total. People need to stop being over dramatic, it's not good for anyone.

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minus10 Veteran

minus10

Posted
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal and interesting weather including summer storms and winter snow
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City
Posted

Well quite a move to a deeper trough on the gfs 6z op.

Could contain: Accessories, Outdoors, Art

...mean also not looking too bad with majority of vortex on Asian side..

Could contain: Graphics, Art, Outdoors, Nature

...and anomaly..

Could contain: Plot, Chart, Map, Atlas, Diagram, Face, Person, Head

..trough clearly shown although could do without the feint pinks to the south..work in progress??

 

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Froze were the Days Accomplished

Froze were the Days

Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
Posted

Yes! what ever happened to the fabled high pressure system which was meant to be sitting near to the UK on a number of seasonal forecasts for this Winter from various countries?, I remember DWD (German model) which usually isn't far off the mark going for HP domination...

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Lukesluckybunch Accomplished

Lukesluckybunch

Posted
  • Location: Bicester
  • Location: Bicester
Posted
2 minutes ago, minus10 said:

Well quite a move to a deeper trough on the gfs 6z op.

Could contain: Accessories, Outdoors, Art

...mean also not looking too bad with majority of vortex on Asian side..

Could contain: Graphics, Art, Outdoors, Nature

...and anomaly..

Could contain: Plot, Chart, Map, Atlas, Diagram, Face, Person, Head

..trough clearly shown although could do without the feint pinks to the south..work in progress??

 

looking nice..ideally the trough slightly further east..but that anomaly has the look of a long lasting blocked theme to me...do you think that 240 chart looks snowy?

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Paul White. Enthusiast

Paul White.

Posted
  • Location: Huddersfield
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Winters
  • Location: Huddersfield
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Posted
10 minutes ago, shawty1984 said:

There is potential every year, nothing makes this new year any special. It's like groundhog year on these forums sometimes.

And while on the subject, people need to stop comparing past weather events to what they are seeing because it looks vaguely similar by 10%. The last cold spell, there was people shouting 2010 all over. In 2010, I had a foot of snow and snow lying on the ground for nearly a month. Last cold spell, I seen about 50 flakes of snow in total. People need to stop being over dramatic, it's not good for anyone.

You seem to be telling people what to do. Let me return the favour, put this kind of post in the moaning thread

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MATTWOLVES 3 Maestro

MATTWOLVES 3

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
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Posted

I think lads and lasses there's more noise appearing on the mogreps 6z runs..looks colder than yesterday's set for sure.

 

Could contain: Plot, Chart, Smoke Pipe

Could contain: Plot, Chart, Smoke Pipe

Could contain: Plot, Chart

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shawty1984 Contributor

shawty1984

Posted
  • Location: Thornaby-on-Tees
  • Location: Thornaby-on-Tees
Posted
4 minutes ago, Paul White. said:

You seem to be telling people what to do. Let me return the favour, put this kind of post in the moaning thread

Where no one will see it. It will be much better for everyone involved if we actually stop being silly on such topics.

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minus10 Veteran

minus10

Posted
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal and interesting weather including summer storms and winter snow
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City
Posted
14 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

looking nice..ideally the trough slightly further east..but that anomaly has the look of a long lasting blocked theme to me...do you think that 240 chart looks snowy?

Well 850s between -4 and -6 not particularly for low ground however local variations, prec intensity and dew points could spring some surprises perhaps over Scotland and Eastern England looking at the this 850s chart..

 

Could contain: Pattern, Art, Graphics, Outdoors, Accessories, Nature, Plot, Chart

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Don Maestro

Don

Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
Posted
27 minutes ago, shawty1984 said:

There is potential every year, nothing makes this new year any special. It's like groundhog year on these forums sometimes.

And while on the subject, people need to stop comparing past weather events to what they are seeing because it looks vaguely similar by 10%. The last cold spell, there was people shouting 2010 all over. In 2010, I had a foot of snow and snow lying on the ground for nearly a month. Last cold spell, I seen about 50 flakes of snow in total. People need to stop being over dramatic, it's not good for anyone.

Any thoughts from you on what January may have in store?

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BlueHedgehog074 Veteran

BlueHedgehog074

Posted
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, thunder, hail & heavy snow
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)
Posted (edited)

Sorry it’s a bit short notice, but with New Year on the way, there’ll be a new Model thread coming. Soon.

(Thought would just mention. If unable to finish your post in time, you can copy it and then paste it into the posting form onto the new thread when it is released. Or copy it into Word/Notepad/Notes etc and then copy back onto the new thread). 
 
Edit: putting the padlock on this now. New thread up very shortly 🙂 

New thread: 

 

Edited by DiagonalRedLine
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