Model Output Discussion - Christmas week and beyond

[bluearmy]

4 minutes ago, RainAllNight said:

What does GLOSEA actually do?

it’s a met office model that runs week and on occasions,  months ahead. 

[dbaloo]

4 minutes ago, RainAllNight said:

What does GLOSEA actually do?

G- Guess

L- Lucky

O- Or

S- Sometimes 

E- Eerily

A- Accurate 

 

 

[Snowmadsam]

9 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

I do find the dissing etc of models quite odd. They are all processing billions of calculations to produce a representation of the atmosphere over a period of time in the future. No model can actually predict the future.  We have to use our experience and intuition to sort the wheat from the chaff but never throw out the chaff unless it’s absolutely minging !  And that doesn’t mean not showing what you would like it to! 

we don’t have the met office stuff which enables them to do that sorting (not models such as glosea) but even then, I wouldn’t say we’re in a much worse place to make judgments than they are - but only if we take off our blue tinted specs and stop over reacting to a couple, runs/suites which may not go where we expected. 
 

we have enough decent models without needing to be looking at navgem or the Indian/Chinese models.  The amount of data we now have access to compared to only half a dozen years ago is brilliant.  Not that it seems to make this thread any easier to get through! 
 

anyway, ec/Ukmo/icon/gfs and gem are all pretty excellent at day 5 in predicting where we will be once the more uncertain period begins - that’s when the human side gets involved.  Nwp charts behind that are simply guesses - some are going to be closer to what happens that others. the modelling is definitely improving - when was the last time we saw an ‘ian brown wtf moment’ when Ukmo diverged completely from what was cross model agreement at day 5 and proved to be correct ? 

we can only dismiss a model run if we have very good reason to do so. 
 

 

I agree on the point of “dissing” models. But it is interesting to have a discussion. I had been saying last night about the number of times the ECM Op had been an outlier but operates at a higher resolution within its ensemble suite. Which was concerning me a little. 
 

But weather models are a guide not a fact. That is why we have human charts in addition and discussions (UKMO FAX charts and NOAA discussion).

Scope does remain a possible for upgrades and downgrades due to the complexities of the pattern at the pole at the moment. 

[TSNWK]

06z has reduced chances of white Christmas beyond northern Scotland this run.. pesky low hangs about and is now lifting out over us. Stopping the flow of cold air.

[Mucka]

Just now, bluearmy said:

Jeez Mucka - you got out of the wrong side of bed this morning ! 

I'm sick as a dog and have been for 8 days so probably yeah.

While your post had some merit it felt like a  pile on and seemed somewhat sanctimonious in nature.

You should know by now that I take in all output and extrapolate and weight opinion from there based on my experience.

In that regard, I tend to give GEM and Icon less weight than GFS, UKMO and ECM always based on experience while the "big 3" are interchangeable depending on synoptic and with experience we tend to see what they are best at and where they are weak.

You can disagree that GEM and Icon are cannon fodder when trying to find pattern changes or fine detail short term and that is fine because soemtimes they will be correct, it is just that more often than not they will elad you down the garden path in my experience.

I apologise for being a grumpy old man.

 

[Battleground Snow]

2 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

06z has reduced chances of white Christmas beyond northern Scotland this run.. pesky low hangs about and is now lifting out over us. Stopping the flow of cold air.

Might just make it before midnight haha

[SLEETY]

Minus 12 upper air into Northern Scotland.Snow showers piling up in the far North

[geordiekev]

Slightly slower evolution on 25th at 6am 0z vs 6z

[northwestsnow]

GFS like a dog with a bone that's a whopper of a block towards Iceland..

[Battleground Snow]

Gfs is being pretty consistent, hopefully it's not consistently wrong

[blizzard81]

We could be heading for a gfs 06z hang over special here. Looking like a good one for the coldies. So, ecm has moved somewhat from Grinch mode this morning thank goodness. We need to see that continue on the 12z run. Also need gfs to carry on sticking to its guns. 

[tight isobar]

5 minutes ago, geordiekev said:

Slightly slower evolution on 25th at 6am 0z vs 6z

We’ll take it ! The slower evolution ramps the latter fruition...

[January Snowstorm]

Incredible run!

So much potential, IF its right

Edited December 19, 2022 by January Snowstorm

[blizzard81]

Just now, January Snowstorm said:

Incredible run!

I think there's a chance we could see some fairly major upgrades at short notice - kicking in any time from early Xmas eve on future runs. It's only a chance though obviously. Have to temper this with the fact this is the 06z run. However, it has shown good continuity this morning on the back of it's 00z run. 

[Battleground Snow]

Surely we undercut at this point?

Trying to temper expectations, but this is close to jackpot at this time of year

[Vikos]

I love the GFSpara

[Benny123]

2 hours ago, Chesil View said:

An albeit grudging move from ecm towards last nights gfs run but not yet enough to bring most of England into play for xmas. 

However as  Matt Hugo posted last night the situation is very complicated and fluid so a fair way to go until this is resolved even at this seemingly close range

Where can we view Matt's posts? 

[MJB]

That looks a belter so so so much potential 

Edited December 19, 2022 by MJB

[tight isobar]

The mighty model aligning and sharpening on evolution!!- further Xmas is not sealed @christmas day! Tomorrow’s suites will be the deciphering on that!!

Edited December 19, 2022 by tight isobar

[ICE COLD]

Oh my the 6z is a snorter . Please just let the gfs be the king model for once and be right

[Lampostwatcher]

Gfs 6z 

Winters coming back

[Tim Bland]

Looking good Can we get that Iceland high over to scandi and the euro low to sink ? 

[ICE COLD]

This is gonna turn into an epic run 

[bluearmy]

18 minutes ago, Mucka said:

I'm sick as a dog and have been for 8 days so probably yeah.

While your post had some merit it felt like a  pile on and seemed somewhat sanctimonious in nature.

You should know by now that I take in all output and extrapolate and weight opinion from there based on my experience.

In that regard, I tend to give GEM and Icon less weight than GFS, UKMO and ECM always based on experience while the "big 3" are interchangeable depending on synoptic and with experience we tend to see what they are best at and where they are weak.

You can disagree that GEM and Icon are cannon fodder when trying to find pattern changes or fine detail short term and that is fine because soemtimes they will be correct, it is just that more often than not they will elad you down the garden path in my experience.

I apologise for being a grumpy old man.

 

Wish you better mate 

I wasn’t jumping on you but there has been a fair bit of selective chart using over the last week or so. if you thought I was using you to make the point then I apologise - it wasn’t meant to be like that. 

[Lukesluckybunch]

The gfs setting up for something quite special right now I think