Jump to content
Thunder?
Local
Radar
Hot?
Message added by Paul,

Please keep your posts to discussing the model output in this thread, and for more general winter weather chat please use the winter chat, moans and ramps thread.

The model highlights thread is also available for a more concise view of the model discussions. 

Be kind -- Stay on topic -- Share your knowledge -- Be polite -- Be honest -- Be tolerant -- Be family-friendly

Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
Posted
4 minutes ago, RainAllNight said:

What does GLOSEA actually do?

it’s a met office model that runs week and on occasions,  months ahead. 

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
Posted
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snowy, Hot and Dry, Blizzard Conditions
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snowy, Hot and Dry, Blizzard Conditions
Posted
9 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

I do find the dissing etc of models quite odd. They are all processing billions of calculations to produce a representation of the atmosphere over a period of time in the future. No model can actually predict the future.  We have to use our experience and intuition to sort the wheat from the chaff but never throw out the chaff unless it’s absolutely minging !  And that doesn’t mean not showing what you would like it to! 

we don’t have the met office stuff which enables them to do that sorting (not models such as glosea) but even then, I wouldn’t say we’re in a much worse place to make judgments than they are - but only if we take off our blue tinted specs and stop over reacting to a couple, runs/suites which may not go where we expected. 
 

we have enough decent models without needing to be looking at navgem or the Indian/Chinese models.  The amount of data we now have access to compared to only half a dozen years ago is brilliant.  Not that it seems to make this thread any easier to get through! 
 

anyway, ec/Ukmo/icon/gfs and gem are all pretty excellent at day 5 in predicting where we will be once the more uncertain period begins - that’s when the human side gets involved.  Nwp charts behind that are simply guesses - some are going to be closer to what happens that others. the modelling is definitely improving - when was the last time we saw an ‘ian brown wtf moment’ when Ukmo diverged completely from what was cross model agreement at day 5 and proved to be correct ? 

we can only dismiss a model run if we have very good reason to do so. 
 

 

I agree on the point of “dissing” models. But it is interesting to have a discussion. I had been saying last night about the number of times the ECM Op had been an outlier but operates at a higher resolution within its ensemble suite. Which was concerning me a little. 
 

But weather models are a guide not a fact. That is why we have human charts in addition and discussions (UKMO FAX charts and NOAA discussion).

Scope does remain a possible for upgrades and downgrades due to the complexities of the pattern at the pole at the moment. 

  • Like 3
Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
Posted

06z has reduced chances of white Christmas beyond northern Scotland this run.. pesky low hangs about and is now lifting out over us. Stopping the flow of cold air.

Could contain: Plot, Chart, Outdoors, Nature

  • Like 1
Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
Posted
Just now, bluearmy said:

Jeez Mucka - you got out of the wrong side of bed this morning ! 

I'm sick as a dog and have been for 8 days so probably yeah.

While your post had some merit it felt like a  pile on and seemed somewhat sanctimonious in nature.

You should know by now that I take in all output and extrapolate and weight opinion from there based on my experience.

In that regard, I tend to give GEM and Icon less weight than GFS, UKMO and ECM always based on experience while the "big 3" are interchangeable depending on synoptic and with experience we tend to see what they are best at and where they are weak.

You can disagree that GEM and Icon are cannon fodder when trying to find pattern changes or fine detail short term and that is fine because soemtimes they will be correct, it is just that more often than not they will elad you down the garden path in my experience.

I apologise for being a grumpy old man.

 

  • Like 7
Posted
  • Location: Coventry
  • Location: Coventry
Posted
2 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

06z has reduced chances of white Christmas beyond northern Scotland this run.. pesky low hangs about and is now lifting out over us. Stopping the flow of cold air.

Could contain: Plot, Chart, Outdoors, Nature

Might just make it before midnight haha

Could contain: Outdoors, Plot, Chart, Nature

  • Like 5
Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
Posted

Minus 12 upper air into Northern Scotland.Snow showers piling up in the far North😃

  • Like 1
Posted
  • Location: Dipton, Nr Consett, Co.Durham, 250m, 777ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Anything but boringly hot
  • Location: Dipton, Nr Consett, Co.Durham, 250m, 777ft asl
Posted

Slightly slower evolution on 25th at 6am 0z vs 6z

Could contain: Plot, Chart, Map

Could contain: Plot, Chart, Map, Outdoors, Nature

  • Like 2
Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
Posted

We could be heading for a gfs 06z hang over special here. Looking like a good one for the coldies. So, ecm has moved somewhat from Grinch mode this morning thank goodness. We need to see that continue on the 12z run. Also need gfs to carry on sticking to its guns. 

  • Like 5
Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
Posted
5 minutes ago, geordiekev said:

Slightly slower evolution on 25th at 6am 0z vs 6z

Could contain: Plot, Chart, Map

Could contain: Plot, Chart, Map, Outdoors, Nature

We’ll take it ! The slower evolution ramps the latter fruition...

  • Like 6
Posted
  • Location: Cork City(Southern Ireland)
  • Location: Cork City(Southern Ireland)
Posted (edited)

Incredible run!

So much potential, IF its right

Edited by January Snowstorm
  • Like 5
Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
Posted
Just now, January Snowstorm said:

Incredible run!

I think there's a chance we could see some fairly major upgrades at short notice - kicking in any time from early Xmas eve on future runs. It's only a chance though obviously. Have to temper this with the fact this is the 06z run. However, it has shown good continuity this morning on the back of it's 00z run. 

  • Like 2
Posted
  • Location: 50/50 Greece/Germany
  • Weather Preferences: Cold winters, hot summers
  • Location: 50/50 Greece/Germany
Posted

I love the GFSpara 🤩

  • Like 2
Posted
  • Location: Newcastle Under Lyme
  • Weather Preferences: Snow & Thunderstorms
  • Location: Newcastle Under Lyme
Posted
2 hours ago, Chesil View said:

An albeit grudging move from ecm towards last nights gfs run but not yet enough to bring most of England into play for xmas. 

However as  Matt Hugo posted last night the situation is very complicated and fluid so a fair way to go until this is resolved even at this seemingly close range

Where can we view Matt's posts? 

Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Weather Preferences: Deep Deep Snow causing chaos
  • Location: Banbury
Posted (edited)

gfsnh-0-216.png?6

That looks a belter so so so much potential 

gfsnh-1-216.png?6

Edited by MJB
  • Like 2
Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
Posted (edited)

The mighty model aligning and sharpening on evolution!!- further Xmas is not sealed @christmas day! Tomorrow’s suites will be the deciphering on that!!

Could contain: Plot, Sea, Outdoors, Nature, Water, Land, Map, Atlas, Coast, Shoreline

Edited by tight isobar
  • Like 6
Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire
Posted

Oh my the 6z is a snorter . Please just let the gfs be the king model for once and be right 🤞🏻🤞🏻🥶

Could contain: Plot, Chart, Nature, Outdoors, Sea, Water

Could contain: Outdoors, Nature, Plot, Chart

  • Like 7
Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
Posted

Looking good 😍 Can we get that Iceland high over to scandi and the euro low to sink ? 

Could contain: Outdoors, Plot, Chart, Nature

  • Like 5
Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire
Posted

This is gonna turn into an epic run 

Could contain: Plot, Chart, Outdoors, Nature

Could contain: Plot, Chart, Nature, Outdoors, Sea, Water

  • Like 2
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
×
×
  • Create New...