Model Output Discussion - Christmas week and beyond

[northwestsnow]

GFS6Z = VICTORY !!!

 

[Tim Bland]

Snow showers ready to pounce from the East by day 10

Edited December 19, 2022 by Tim Bland

[TSNWK]

Incoming streamers me thinks…

where do you get the 850 and dam charts together I’ve seen

[Lukesluckybunch]

How do -12 uppers sound on the gfs!!?

1 minute ago, Tim Bland said:

Snow showers ready to pounce from the East by day 10

Absolutely brilliant..but let's forget ECM is nothing like this..maybe it's a brand new trend?

[bluearmy]

Wow - the 06z needs to check itself - it thinks it’s the pub run - wrong six o clock !

It looks to take all the forks in the road to reach the best possible route to cold. Based on ens guidance, that ridge should sink se - even though it looks as though it wouldn’t 

Edited December 19, 2022 by bluearmy

[Hotspur62]

As much as I would like GFS to be right possibly an outlier?

[Tim Bland]

2 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

Incoming streamers me thinks…

where do you get the 850 and dam charts together I’ve seen

Iso 0c top right 

[Derecho]

There was a lot of people writing off the prospects of cold in later December as there was too much of a fixation on the strat and NH views.

However if that GFS comes off we could end up with a decent cold spell of our own. No 1060mb high, no SSW just a northerly in our part of the world tipping the scales.

The northerly might not come off mind but SLP changes in our part of the world can have a much bigger ripple effect.

Would be nice if the transition into colder air was sped up if I was to be picky. Chances of a white christmas here have reduced. Still lots of uncertainty.

[Mucka]

1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

Wish you better mate 

I wasn’t jumping on you but there has been a fair bit of selective chart using over the last week or so. if you thought I was using you to make the point then I apologise - it wasn’t meant to be like that. 

Appreciated.

Personally I like to think I "select" charts to help illustrate my opinion and any cherry-picking is almost always done with tongue firmly in cheek.

I rarely actually call the output beyond expressing an opinion of where and why I have doubt on a model outcome or give an opinion as to where the output may head which I tend to caveat carefully.

I would say 90% of my post on the Xmas period reiterate uncertainty rather than blind allegiance to a cold outcome, I even weighted milder to win out at one point,  although I will always have a greater interest in cold options.

But, If you do feel I am barking up the wrong tree or backing the wrong horse then please respond to that particular post and we can discuss our opinions.

Merry Xmas you and yours.

 

[Purga]

Happy New Year coming up

[TSNWK]

Dear Santa! I’ve been a good boy all year… please may I have 19/12/22 06z GFS as a prezzie.. 

what a chart and those heights are now heading to Greenland.. defo bankable.. unable to boom as a bit isolated for now and I suspect will be an outlier.. but hey.. nice viewing on a rainy mild morning.

[Day 10]

I said it a few days ago and will say it again, a lot of cold Winter's have cold tasers before really getting going after Christmas. Could this be one?

So far the NH appears to be acting very differently this year. Yes, I know feet firmly on the ground and all that but I'm just saying, it feels different this year. As ever we'll see, addictive as ever though.

Let's hope the GFS is really onto to building something here and the others will catch up, it gets slated at times but sometimes it has it's day.

JFF but lovely Day 10.

[Frostbite1980]

Beautiful run by the 6z GFS however we need support from not only the ens but also the likes of ECM and UKMO before I start to take note. My take would be that this is either an outlier or right at the bottom of the pack, however i would be more than happy to be proved wrong. I might just have to take a few screen shots of this run mind 

[Battleground Snow]

The mean is good at 138, and thankfully nothing like the ukmo 144 chart, still caution needed untill we get down to the realiable 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Bang on cue this mornings ecm op has finally drifted to what some of its ensembles have been showing the last few days. Hence why I say never ignore the ens!

Not much too add regarding the gfs solution...but its looking like it wants to go properly cold.

I noticed a tad of tension and unease in here earlier,and let me tell you this....my great gran always used to tell me,Matty if folks are feeling agitated make sure you post em some gfs snow charts of potential streamers from the North Sea...even if its fantasy Island! 

The possibilities are endless I reckon.

Grandma was a little eccentric though

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

For me that (not unexpected) ‘‘hurricane’ nor’easter is important.  It tracks inland northwards staying west of Greenland and hence we see stronger ridge to our W/NW.  06z…….plausible.

 

BFTP

Edited December 19, 2022 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[bluearmy]

4 minutes ago, Mucka said:

Appreciated.

Personally I like to think I "select" charts to help illustrate my opinion and any cherry-picking is almost always done with tongue firmly in cheek.

I rarely actually call the output beyond expressing an opinion of where and why I have doubt on a model outcome or give an opinion as to where the output may head which I tend to caveat carefully.

I would say 90% of my post on the Xmas period reiterate uncertainty rather than blind allegiance to a cold outcome, I even weighted milder to win out at one point,  although I will always have a greater interest in cold options.

But, If you do feel I am barking up the wrong tree or backing the wrong horse then please respond to that particular post and we can discuss our opinions.

Merry Xmas you and yours.

 

I wasn’t referring to you about selectiveness. - you’re not in that camp.  I really shouldn’t have made my post against yours. Then it couldn’t have been misinterpreted 

 

 

[Purga]

Attack from the North

Edited December 19, 2022 by Purga

[blizzard81]

We need to stay grounded though as well. By all means we should enjoy that gfs 06z run but the mean shows slightly more influence from Euro heights compared to the 00z mean. 

[sundog]

Maybe very mild today but if the 06z is correct the mildness won't last too long........

[Frigid]

GFS 6Z is awesome but will need to be backed by its ensembles. Looks cold from 25th and onwards. Perfect 

[Mucka]

1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

I wasn’t referring to you about selectiveness. - you’re not in that camp.  I really shouldn’t have made my post against yours. Then it couldn’t have been misinterpreted 

 

 

Well we made a mountain out a mole hill between us didn't we? As I say I am overly tetchy at the moment and my original caustic response was removed so all good.

Thanks for going the extra mile and I am glad we can now return to our original programming in nailing down this Islands weather for Xmas. 

 

[bluearmy]

There are a few gefs members that support this evolution so it isn’t ridiculous. There are a distinct lack of eps members that find this level of  amplification but some eps members do find a cold easterly around a more suppressed ridge (inc the control) 

it’s obviously nice to see the gfs pull this run from the ens pile and deliver it as an op. But we need to see it re occur a few times 

[nick sussex]

Amen ! That wretched Atlantic low to the sw is cut off and then the GFS manages just enough energy heading ese to stop the Euro blob from sucking the high to the nw south .

The GFS 06 hrs run has actually tracked towards the ECM op in terms of the low heading ene .

All in all a really good run for coldies in the UK and this set up delivers some lovely warm conditions here in Cyprus .

Can we just bank this run and enjoy the festive period !

 

[blizzard81]

Just now, nick sussex said:

Amen ! That wretched Atlantic low to the sw is cut off and then the GFS manages just enough energy heading ese to stop the Euro blob from sucking the high to the nw south .

The GFS 06 hrs run has actually tracked towards the ECM op in terms of the low heading ene .

All in all a really good run for coldies in the UK and this set up delivers some lovely warm conditions here in Cyprus .

Can we just bank this run and enjoy the festive period !

 

Ha ha ha if only Nick. If only.