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Model Output Discussion - Christmas week and beyond


nick sussex
Message added by Paul,

Please keep your posts to discussing the model output in this thread, and for more general winter weather chat please use the winter chat, moans and ramps thread.

The model highlights thread is also available for a more concise view of the model discussions. 

Be kind -- Stay on topic -- Share your knowledge -- Be polite -- Be honest -- Be tolerant -- Be family-friendly

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Posted
  • Location: Dwyrain Sir Gâr / Eastern Carmarthenshire 178m abs
  • Location: Dwyrain Sir Gâr / Eastern Carmarthenshire 178m abs
1 minute ago, frosty ground said:

One data pint from Madrid makes a run an outlier Europe wide?

¡Exactamente! 

Why is it perceived this chart for Madrid is correct vs other runs?

Respuestas postales por favor

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Posted
  • Location: Aviemore
  • Location: Aviemore

To be fair, the 6z is out of sync with it's ensembles for a lot more places than just Madrid. That doesn't mean it's wrong of course, but it's maybe not unreasonable to say that it's not well supported just now.

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Posted
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: Storm, drizzle
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.

Alright so I'm not even going to take the CFS AAM forecast into account considering it doesn't even start in the right AAM phase 🤣, or maybe the analysis is wrong. Merry Christmas CFS :drunk-emoji:.

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Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth

Not exactly the same time but 06z gfs might be on to something?

814CF2A5-848F-4A19-8A46-706DD171BEC2.gif

88A9B076-45CC-42DA-B6CE-25AC43FA65C5.gif

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire

Always like when Atlantic shortwaves start “binocular spilt “- it’s a crude sign of block persuasion!.. and usually notes the press on any under initial energies!!

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Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull

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GFS 12z is colder for Christmas day but is struggling to clear energy east, indeed pressure is actually rising over the UK come christmas day.

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Posted
  • Location: Delnies, Nairn, Highlands (30m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and ice
  • Location: Delnies, Nairn, Highlands (30m asl)
1 minute ago, TSNWK said:

Much colder Christmas Eve.. but a short gain with a price to pay longer term is what I see on this one so far.

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need to keep an eye on the cut-off low

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Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
6 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

Ukmo looks better at 120 to me than it's 00z

Looks dire to me to be honest and going with ICON, with the small Atlantic low not phasing and moving East. 

The UKMO Ops have had this nailed for a couple of day, with little interest in a white Christmas.

 

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire

This is where the gfs maybe lord of the manor.. icon couldn’t resist energies rolling as bk blocks.. so crucial from this part in.. and a guide to who’s who- and what models what!

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Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull

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Some model agreement now between UKMO, GFS and ICON respectively. Northerly is on very shaky ground already.

EDIT: The GFS builds a Greenland High in the following frames at least.

Edited by Quicksilver1989
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Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.

Icon called it right with ukm and gfs similar at 144 the differences are stark on gfs 12z from this mornings 06z and was aparent about 96 onwards with Atlantic low not pushing towards so quick..

 

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
Just now, Quicksilver1989 said:

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Some model agreement now between UKMO, GFS and ICON respectively. Northerly is on very shaky ground already.

Wobbling indeed- however the race for this point in output is still not resolved!! Some more pain could be massive gain.. and that includes pre- this point in later modelling!!!.. hold on tight— we are at point note nearly... 🏃‍♂️🤪.. the ecm is bound to throw a big spanner in this evening!!

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Just now, TSNWK said:

Icon called it right with ukm and gfs similar at 144 the differences are stark on gfs 12z from this mornings 06z and was aparent about 96 onwards with Atlantic low not pushing towards so quick..

 

Nothing has been called right because it has not happened yet!

Plenty more water to go under the bridge yet.

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