January 2023 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests

[Roger J Smith]

(a) January CET forecast contest

__ __ averages and extremes __ __

(including all CET values since 1981)

bold type for warmest 13, italic type middle 15 and underlined type coldest 14. 

(note all temps converted to v2.0 in this report)

 

12.7 .. warmest daily CET mean (1st, 2022)

 7.6 ... warmest January (1916)

 7.5
 7.4
 7.3 ... tied second warmest (1796 & 1921)
 7.2
 7.1 ... fourth warmest (1834)

 7.0 ... fifth warmest, and warmest since 1921 (2007)
 6.9 ... sixth warmest (1733)
 6.8 ... seventh warmest (1975)
 6.7 ... eighth warmest (1983)
 6.6 ... tied ninth warmest (1898, 2008.)
 6.5 ... tied eleventh warmest (1686, 1990)
 6.4 ... tied thirteenth warmest (1736, 1875, 1884, 2020)
 6.3 ... tied seventeenth warmest (1846, 1932)
 6.2 ... nineteenth warmest (1737)
 6.1 ... twentieth warmest (1989)
 
 6.0 ... two tied for 21th warmest (1682, 1708)
 5.9 ... five tied for 23rd warmest (1759, 1974, 1976, 1993, 2005)
 5.8 ... three tied for 28th warmest (1804, 1866, 1944)
 5.7 .. 2014 (tied with 1890, 1938 as 31st warmest)
 5.6 .. 
 5.5 .. 1999, 2002, 2012, 2016
 5.4 .. 
 5.3 .. 1988, 1994, 2018

 5.2 .. 2004
 5.1 .. 1998

 5.0 ..
 4.9 .. 2000
 4.8 .. 1981, 1995

 4.7 .. 2022 --- average 1991-2020 ---  ---average 1993-2022 --- --- average 2001-2022 ---

... ... this has been the 30-yr average since 1988-2017 (warmest 2 dec 1988-2017, 1989-2018, 4.74)

 4.6 .. only the 30-yr avg twice (v2.0), 1985-2014, 1986-2015

 4.5 .. 2003, 2015

 4.4 .. --- average 1981-2010 ----- and also 2006

 ... ... ... -- also average 1898-1927 and 1910-1939 -- (warmth not reached again until 1980 to 2009)

 4.3 .. 1996
 4.2 .. --- average 1971-2000 -----
 4.1 ..

 4.0 .. 2017, 2019
 3.9 .. --- average 1901-2000 ---- and also 1984
 3.8 .. --- average 1961-1990 ----
 3.7 .. 2011
 3.6 .. 1992
 3.5 .. 1986, 2013 ... the 30-yr average as recently as 1958-87 (lowest since 3.3 1941-70)
 3.4 ..
 3.3 .. --- average 1659-2022 (3.28) ---
 3.2 .. 1991, 2001, 2021

 3.1 .. 2009 ... --- average 1939-1968 --- (lowest Jan 30-year average since 1838-1867)
 3.0 .. --- average 1801-1900 ----
 2.9 .. --- average 1701-1800 ----
 2.8 ..
 2.7 .. 1982
 2.6 .. --- average 1659-1700 ---
 2.5 .. 
 2.4 .. 1997 and --- average 1760-1839 --- (the longest interval for which this was maintained)
 2.3 ..
 2.2 ..
 2.1 ..

 2.0 ... --- average 1766 to 1795 --- coldest 30-year average
 1.9 ..
 1.8 ..
 1.7 ...
 1.6 ...
 1.5 ... 2010
 1.4 ... 
 1.3 ...
 1.2 ...
 1.1 ...
 1.0 ... (only recent years listed from here above to mildest)
 0.9 ... tied 43rd coldest (1880, 1942, 1985)
 0.8 ... tied 41st coldest (1768, 1987) 
 0.7 ... tied 39th coldest (1766, 1850)
 0.6 ... tied 37th coldest (1774, 1842)
 0.5 ... tied 32nd coldest (1681, 1685, 1689, 1871, 1941)
 0.4 ... tied 30th coldest (1826, 1945)
 0.3 ... tied 27th coldest (1757, 1815, 1829)
 0.2 ... 26th coldest (1895)
 0.1 ... 25th coldest (1767)
 0.0 ... four tied at 21st coldest (1660, 1667,1694,1698)
-0.1 ... twentieth coldest (1823)
-0.2 ... nineteenth coldest (1830)
-0.3 ... eighteenth coldest (1820)
-0.4 ... seventeenth coldest, and last subzero January (1979)
-0.5
-0.6 ... sixteenth coldest (1784)
-0.7 ... fifteenth coldest (1879)
-0.8 ... fourteenth coldest (1763)
-0.9 ... thirteenth coldest (1780)
-1.0 ... twelfth coldest (1695)
-1.1
-1.2
-1.3
-1.4 ... eleventh coldest (1940)
-1.5 ... tied for eighth coldest (1709, 1838, 1881)
-1.6 ... seventh coldest (1776) ... six days end of this month were all record low CET values
-1.7
-1.8
-1.9
-2.0 ... sixth coldest (1716)
-2.1 ... fifth coldest, and coldest of 20th century (1963)
-2.2
-2.3
-2.4
-2.5
-2.6
-2.7
-2.8 ... fourth coldest (1740)
-2.9 ... third coldest (1814)
-3.0 ... second coldest (1684)
-3.1 ... coldest January or month (1795)

-7.5 ... mean on 14th, 1982

-7.7 ... coldest daily in Jan since 1963 (12th, 1987) or since any CET mean 12 Dec 1981 (-8.7)

-8.4 ... coldest daily Jan mean in past 156 yrs (23rd, 1963)

      -- this was the third coldest day in any month and coldest in any Jan since -9.0 on 4 Jan 1867)
..... ..... 12 Dec 1981 at -8.7 was marginally colder, 8 Feb 1895 -8.5 C

-11.9 ... coldest daily Jan or any CET mean, 20th 1838

________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Enter the temperature forecast contest by end of day Saturday, 31 December (2022) or with increasing time penalties on the first three days of January 2023. 

 

(Optional) EWP forecast contest

-- Predict the January precipitation (snowfall liquid equivalent so for every 10 cm of snow, 10 mm precip on average), the standard we are using for this contest is the Hadley England and Wales Precip (EWP) and here are the averages and extremes (the period of record is 1766 to present) ...

184.6 .. wettest January (2014)

176.8 .. 2nd wettest Jan (1948)

146.0 .. 2021

 95.4 .. --- average 1993-2022 ---

 94.2 .. --- average 1991-2020 ---

 93.0 .. --- average 1981-2010 ---

 81.5 _ average of all data 1766 to 2022

 36.3 _ 2022

 16.5 .. driest January in recent past (1997) -- 5th driest since these records started in 1766

 15.3 .. second driest January on record (1779)

 04.4 .. driest January (1766)

Notes: The recent past has seen several quite wet months besides 2014, 1988 (169.0 mm) was third wettest, 1995 (162.6 mm) was fourth wettest, and 2016 (149.5 mm) was 8th wettest while 2021 (146.0 mm) was 12th wettest. Jan 2020 had 82.5 mm, while 2019 was a relatively dry 47.1 mm, and Jan 2018 was slightly wetter than average at 104.5 mm,  2017 produced 79.6 mm and 2015 had 101.0 mm. Dry Januaries have been rare in recent decades. Aside from 1997, the only cases since 1981 to record 40 mm or less include 2022 (36.3 mm), 1987 (33.9 mm), and 2006 with 31.9 mm. 

To enter the precip contest, forecast the England and Wales precip for Jan 2023, to nearest mm (and tenth if desired). You can add this to your temperature forecast or place it in a separate post. Same deadlines, scoring is to a maximum of 10 points each month. Any percentage forecast entered will be converted using 1991-2020 average of 94.2 mm. 

__ Good luck !! __ 

[Don]

Gawd only knows?!! 

[JeffC]

3.7C, 100mm please

[I remember Atlantic 252]

5.8C, 112mm, Atlantic properly waking up, flooding issues likely, Zonal from 1st to 31st

[SummerShower]

I'll give this a go this coming year..

4.8C

156mm

Similar January to 1995, mildish and very wet with a couple of surprise snow events

[Don]

51 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

5.8C, 112mm, Atlantic properly waking up, flooding issues likely, Zonal from 1st to 31st

Think you mean 8.5, not 5.8!! 

39 minutes ago, SummerShower said:

I'll give this a go this coming year..

4.8C

156mm

Similar January to 1995, mildish and very wet with a couple of surprise snow events

Parts of the south east had a decent snowfall New Year's Day 1995.  Other than that it was an ok month for snow, midlands northwards but mild in the south.

[Frigid]

Tough one..  Models looking dire but I have hope

3.5C and 110mm, slightly below average. I feel like the cold will come back in some way, whether it be from an SSW or a pattern shift. 

[chilly milly]

Not a clue. Mild and wet beginning and of month with a cold bit in the middle is my guess.

2.9c and 64mm of rain

[Methuselah]

4C and 100mm please, Roger. So, nowt to write home about!

[syed2878]

For January I am going for quite a mild month and dry also temperature 6.5C precipitation, 45 mm.

[Bobd29]

Hope I’m wrong but 5.6C and 91.7mm please

[feb1991blizzard]

5.1c and 114mm please, very provisional and subject to change - putting this up more so i don't forget and miss the deadline than have any real confidence in it.

[Polar Gael]

3.8°C and 87.5mm for me please. 

[Shillitocettwo]

Im going in for a dramatic one for the New Year....it totally contradicts my year long one and I'm willing (and indeed almost hope) to crash and burn....

 

 

   CET 10.3.C and 94mm

 

   A December 2015 of January's on steroids. Will soon take a mild SW flow that will,once set up, linger all month to produce one of the most horrific mildfests ever known for a Winter month, with day after day of mid teens with rhe occasional 17, 18, 19 and even a 20.C abomination and a rarity for the nights to actually fail double figures...only a cool start scuppering what would otherwise be even more out there. Smashing the CET record by some degrees and many other records lost in an unbelievable non Wintry month

[Don]

3 minutes ago, Shillitocettwo said:

Im going in for a dramatic one for the New Year....it totally contradicts my year long one and I'm willing (and indeed almost hope) to crash and burn....

 

 

   CET 10.3.C and 94mm

 

   A December 2015 of January's on steroids. Will soon take a mild SW flow that will,once set up, linger all month to produce one of the most horrific mildfests ever known for a Winter month, with day after day of mid teens with rhe occasional 17, 18, 19 and even a 20.C abomination and a rarity for the nights to actually fail double figures...only a cool start scuppering what would otherwise be even more out there. Smashing the CET record by some degrees and many other records lost in an unbelievable non Wintry month

[Mapantz]

5.2°C / 101mm

Edited December 23, 2022 by Mapantz

[Dancerwithwings]

Yes Don my thoughts as well …back to normality,,,4.6C and 64mm please,

but hopefully a lot lower 

[SummerShower]

13 hours ago, Shillitocettwo said:

Im going in for a dramatic one for the New Year....it totally contradicts my year long one and I'm willing (and indeed almost hope) to crash and burn....

 

 

   CET 10.3.C and 94mm

 

   A December 2015 of January's on steroids. Will soon take a mild SW flow that will,once set up, linger all month to produce one of the most horrific mildfests ever known for a Winter month, with day after day of mid teens with rhe occasional 17, 18, 19 and even a 20.C abomination and a rarity for the nights to actually fail double figures...only a cool start scuppering what would otherwise be even more out there. Smashing the CET record by some degrees and many other records lost in an unbelievable non Wintry month

As long as its mostly sunny with the occasional Spanish plume.

[Typhoon John]

I'll go for 5.6c please

[Kasim Awan]

6.3C

[emmett garland]

That 1796 January must have felt tropical incredibly.. I'm going

 For a 6.1 and 103mm I really hope I'm wrong 

[SLEETY]

Another mild January is coming 

6.3

85mm

Like to see how much January and February have warmed since the late 80s,must be an incredible difference since then for UK and Europe. 

[snowray]

Usual January mild mush, 5.7c and 91mm please.

[Earthshine]

5.1°C and 80mm

[Summer18]

4.8C & 120mm