January 2023 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests

[Frigid]

It's looking more and more likely the CET will dip below 5C. Notably cold days and quite cool for the rest of the month, well for more southern areas. This spell is quite reminiscent to Jan 2017, where southern areas saw more of the cold whereas it was a lot milder up north.

Now the only question is, will it be cooler than Jan 22?

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

-8c at Heathrow this morning - the coldest for 12 years!

[Weather-history]

Provisional CET for this winter up to 21st January is 4.4°C

(3.4 x 31) + (5.8 x 21)/ 52 

The 52 is the 52nd day of winter.

 

 

Edited January 23, 2023 by Weather-history

[LetItSnow!]

1 hour ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

-8c at Heathrow this morning - the coldest for 12 years!

It seems to be becoming a winter in which some quite notably cold temperatures are occurring without snowfall. I noticed this earlier on in the month when we had a one day wonder shot of cold air and temperatures even in the south got surprisingly colder than I thought they would. Interesting. 

[Frigid]

11 minutes ago, LetItSnow! said:

It seems to be becoming a winter in which some quite notably cold temperatures are occurring without snowfall. I noticed this earlier on in the month when we had a one day wonder shot of cold air and temperatures even in the south got surprisingly colder than I thought they would. Interesting. 

I also noticed this. it got down to -10C here last month without any snowfall. Most likely would've been mid -10s with snow. Maybe it's a more continental influence in our weather that's driving these exceptional lows.. same can be said about last summer with exceptional highs. 

[LetItSnow!]

22 minutes ago, Frigid said:

I also noticed this. it got down to -10C here last month without any snowfall. Most likely would've been mid -10s with snow. Maybe it's a more continental influence in our weather that's driving these exceptional lows.. same can be said about last summer with exceptional highs. 

Possibly, but the instance earlier in the month occured from a N/NW wind IIRC. Whatever the reason, I'm glad and hope it continues. Could mean some beefy cold if the stars align. I would rather a year known for its notable lows than highs for a change!

 

C.E.T. will finish around the 5.0C mark. A conservative estimate would probably see us 4.9-5.2 - but unexpected low temperatures like this morning could see us similar to last year. I would like us to go as low as possible.

[Don]

2 hours ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

-8c at Heathrow this morning - the coldest for 12 years!

Positively barmy here at 3C!!

[Frigid]

18 hours ago, damianslaw said:

Today very cold in CET zone, could be on 5.5 degrees tomorrow, a finish close to 5 degrees most probable, question is above or below?

 

Looks like you were correct, also 3 sub-zero CET days this month.. A January of two halves, much like December was. 

Could get another sub-zero day today, that would put us on 14 such days this winter. Still a month or so of cold potential.

[Summer Sun]

5.5c to the 22nd

1.7c above the 61 to 90 average
1.0c above the 81 to 10 average

[damianslaw]

2 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

5.5c to the 22nd

1.7c above the 61 to 90 average
1.0c above the 81 to 10 average

As expected a 0.3 degrees drop past 24 hours, today also a very cold one, could see another 0.3 degree drop by tomorrow. The remainder of the month currently forecast to be close to average, a finish in the 4s becoming increasingly likely, who would have said that a week ago!

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield down to 5.3C +0.7C above average. Rainfall unchanged.

The cold nights in the CET zone should mean it will soon be colder there than in some places further north.

[Man With Beard]

On 19/01/2023 at 20:20, Frigid said:

Quite notable we're already at 12, given we still have ~2 months of winter left. Compared to previous winters:

2021/22 - 0

2020/21 - 11

2019/20 - 0

2011/12 - 10

2010/11 - 20

2009/10 - 16

Wondering if we'll see the most sub-zero CET days since 2012/13.. come on February you can't be another stinker! 

 

Where are we up to with the subzeros for the season?

[Summer Sun]

5.4c to the 23rd

1.6c above the 61 to 90 average
0.9c above the 81 to 10 average

[Frigid]

56 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Where are we up to with the subzeros for the season?

Looks like we're at 13 as of today. Could've been 14 if it weren't for the slight adjustment on the 18th.

[Snowyowl9]

Is this winter going to be as cool as 2005-06..

 

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield down to 5.2C +0.6C above average. Rainfall stuck at 84mm 112.9%

[The PIT]

1 minute ago, The PIT said:

Sunny Sheffield down to 5.2C +0.6C above average. Rainfall stuck at 84mm 112.9%

Not a lot is going to happen so possible ending 5.3C to 5.6C for us. Perhaps a few millimetres of rain but not a lot to come.

[damianslaw]

6 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

5.4c to the 23rd

1.6c above the 61 to 90 average
0.9c above the 81 to 10 average

Mmm this looks very suspect to me, two stations yesterday were widely below zero, and Stonyhurst not much above, maxima also suppressed, was expecting 5.3 at least.

[feb1991blizzard]

27 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Mmm this looks very suspect to me, two stations yesterday were widely below zero, and Stonyhurst not much above, maxima also suppressed, was expecting 5.3 at least.

it does but you'll find there will be a big downward trend tomorrow - instead of a downward correction at the end, i think they do them retrospectively still, but as we go along instead, i'm convinced, you see this alot.

Edited January 24, 2023 by feb1991blizzard

[damianslaw]

9 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

it does but you'll find there will be a big downward trend tomorrow - instead of a downward correction at the end, i think they do them retrospectively still, but as we go along instead, i'm convinced, you see this alot.

Ok makes sense perhaps we will be on 5.1 degrees tomorrow then given another cold day in the CET zone. We may well dip into the 4s before the week is out, a final figure between 4.7 and 5.2 degrees probably most likely.

[feb1991blizzard]

3 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Ok makes sense perhaps we will be on 5.1 degrees tomorrow then given another cold day in the CET zone. We may well dip into the 4s before the week is out, a final figure between 4.7 and 5.2 degrees probably most likely.

yes i wished i hadn't done a late change from 5.1 or 2 (cant remember) to 5.7, that said though bbc got last few days 9 or 10c max's with 6 mins in London, Birmingham and Manchester, so i wouldn't rule out a bit higher yet, although that could well change at midnight, when the ECMWF 12z data is fed into it.

[Roger J Smith]

Current numerical guidance from GFS 12z gives 4.7 C and 93 mm as the outcome. For the EWP scores posted earlier, this would generally mean about 0.5 points higher for most below-94 mm forecasts and 0.5 fewer for those higher. However it's a bit better for those at 89-90 because of the seven forecasts at 100 mm moving behind them in the ranks. Not a big enough change to merit an edit yet, will wait to see if the end of month value is closer or not (we are now at 91.3 mm assuming nothing added for 23rd). The EWP grid is basically bone dry to end of month with a few coastal fringes seeing 2-7 mm amounts. My 4.7 estimate is plus or minus 0.2 based on GFS verifying. 

[Roger J Smith]

4 hours ago, Snowyowl9 said:

Is this winter going to be as cool as 2005-06..

 

For the CET, If January comes in at 4.7 C, then this winter has a lead of 0.6 (2005 in v2.0 was 4.3 and 4.4, this winter 3.4 and 4.7 est). Feb 2006 was 3.9 so this coming Feb could be 4.4 or lower to make the winter average lower; 4.5 would leave the average equal. However, there was also cold weather at times in Nov 2005 and very cold days in the first week of March, but that probably wouldn't be what you could include in anything but an informal comparison. The 4.5 Feb would be adjusted opposite to any error in the 4.7 Jan estimate, for example if Jan comes in 4.9 then Feb needs to be 4.3 for a tie with 2005-06. 

[Summer Sun]

5.2c to the 24th

1.4c above the 61 to 90 average
0.7c above the 81 to 10 average

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield at 5.2C +0.6C above average. Rainfall at 84.2mm 113.2% of the monthly average.

Using the latest local forecast suggests a 5.3C finish for us.