January 2023 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests

[virtualsphere]

6.0C and 97mm please

[prolongedSnowLover]

It’s looking like a milder month than I originally thought!

[Don]

18 hours ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

It’s looking like a milder month than I originally thought!

Yep, by the day!!

[summer blizzard]

3.8C, 89mm. 

I don't think December is our last hoorah albeit it is probably our most severe spell relative to average. 

As things stand, i believe that spring will arrive in February though. 

Edited December 27, 2022 by summer blizzard

[SteveB]

4.8c and 120mm please 

[Summer Sun]

5.2c for me please

[Leo97t]

5.5c and 90mm

[Wold Topper]

4.3°c and 76mm please, thanks

[Frigid]

On 22/12/2022 at 13:54, Frigid said:

Tough one..  Models looking dire but I have hope

3.5C and 110mm, slightly below average. I feel like the cold will come back in some way, whether it be from an SSW or a pattern shift. 

Well the hope I had has started to diminish..

5.9C and 140mm please

Mild up to mid month, after that it's anyone's guess 

[Don]

42 minutes ago, Frigid said:

Well the hope I had has started to diminish..

5.9C and 140mm please

Mild up to mid month, after that it's anyone's guess 

Or 9.5C, a December 2015 redux?! 😬

Edited December 28, 2022 by Don

[Roger J Smith]

I am going with 4.4 so you can't tempt me with a reversal, and 79.2 mm of (mostly) rain. There might be one cold spell but I am not sensing much potential for blocking with the jet rather strong but too far south to suggest an extremely mild month. So more of what we've seen since the mid-Dec cold spell ended. 

[Cymro]

4.9 and 100mm

[rwtwm]

The start looks very mild and stormy! My wild stab is 6.1c and 131mm please

[Summer8906]

6.1 and 95.0, thanks.

Very mild, but not the mildest of recent years, and rainfall maybe a shade above average but not notably wet.

[Don]

10 hours ago, Roger J Smith said:

I am going with 4.4 so you can't tempt me with a reversal, and 79.2 mm of (mostly) rain. There might be one cold spell but I am not sensing much potential for blocking with the jet rather strong but too far south to suggest an extremely mild month. So more of what we've seen since the mid-Dec cold spell ended. 

Lol!!  Was expecting worse TBH!😉

Presumably you expect the possible cold spell to be towards the end of the month?

Edited December 29, 2022 by Don

[Weather26]

6.8C and 112MM please.

[Roger J Smith]

10 hours ago, Don said:

Lol!!  Was expecting worse TBH!😉

Presumably you expect the possible cold spell to be towards the end of the month?

Will review the 4.4, perhaps 5.5, 6.6 or 7.7 eventually, just want to avoid those reversals. It's a fairly mild looking pattern but the GFS keeps trending towards cold zonal late in the run, usually never works out but there's a first time for everything. In December, the one time I don't get sucked into a cold forecast, it would have worked out. Every other year it seems to go the other way and then I fall so far behind nothing can save my year. 

[The PIT]

5C and 85mm of rain

[prolongedSnowLover]

Going to see tomorrows models before making my mind up!

Hints of something more interesting on the 6z run!

Edited December 30, 2022 by prolongedSnowLover

[DiagonalRedLine]

Feeling unconfident about it being a cold one, although I feel some high quality Polar Maritime flows will conquer the UK further into January we go, perhaps with early to mid December 2022-esque Northern blocking trying to re-establish right at the end of the month.

CET of 5.8*C and 100mm of rain/snow, please. Tar!

[Don]

14 hours ago, Roger J Smith said:

Will review the 4.4, perhaps 5.5, 6.6 or 7.7 eventually, just want to avoid those reversals. It's a fairly mild looking pattern but the GFS keeps trending towards cold zonal late in the run, usually never works out but there's a first time for everything. In December, the one time I don't get sucked into a cold forecast, it would have worked out. Every other year it seems to go the other way and then I fall so far behind nothing can save my year. 

I promise not reverse any of your estimates! 😉

[NeilN]

3.9c and 55m

[John88B]

4c and 100mm please.

[reef]

Mild, wet and windy:

5.6C and 123mm

[damianslaw]

A mild month most likely, 5.5. degrees.  A notably mild first half, colder conditions second half much more so in the north, with polar air pushing aside tropical maritime air thanks to a more southerly tracking jet, but the south part of the CET zone may escape much cold weather - a marked north-south divide, Scotland likely to be close to average. A wet month with snow a common feature in the north at times.