January 2023 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests

[Roger J Smith]

 

Table of forecasts January 2023

 

CET _ EWP __  FORECASTER (order of entry) _______ CET _ EWP __ FORECASTER (order of entry)

10.3__ 94.0__ Shillitocettwo ( 09 ) __________________ 5.0 __ 85.0 __ The PIT ( 31 ) _____________

 6.8 __112.0__ weather 26 ( 30 ) ____________________ 5.0 __ 98.0 __ seaside60 ( 53 ) __________

 6.5 __ 45.0 __ syed2878 ( 06 ) ______________________ 5.0 __104.0__ noname_weather ( 57 ) ____

_____________________________________________________ 5.0 __100.0__ DR(S)NO ( L1-6 ) ___________

 6.3 __ --- ---__ Kasim Awan ( 13 ) ___________________ 4.9 __100.0 __ cymro ( 27 ) _______________

 6.3 __ 85.0 __ SLEETY ( 15 ) _________________________4.9 __110.0 __ freeze ( 48 ) _______________

 6.1 __103.0__ Emmett Garland ( 14 ) ______________ 4.8 __156.0__ Summer Shower ( 03 ) ____

 6.1 __131.0__ rwtwm ( 28 ) ________________________ 4.8 __120.0__ Summer18 ( 18 ) __________

 6.1 __ 95.0 __ summer8906 ( 29 ) __________________ 4.8 __120.0__ SteveB ( 21 ) ______________ 

 6.0 __ 97.0 __ virtualsphere ( 19 ) __________________ 4.8 __ 68.0 __ stewfox (46) ______________

 5.9 __140.0__ Frigid ( 25 ) __________________________ 4.8 __ 99.9 __ prolongedSnowLover (49) _

_____________________________________________________ 4.8 __ --- --- __Walsall Wood Snow ( L1-2 ) _

 5.9 __120.0__ Moorlander ( 39 ) ___________________ 4.7 __ 94.2 __ 1991-2020 average _______

 5.8 __112.0__ I Remember Atlantic252 ( 02 ) ______ 4.7 __ 95.4 __ 1993-2022 average _______

 5.8 __100.0__ DiagonalRedLine ( 32 ) ______________ 4.6 __ 64.0 __ dancerwithwings ( 11 ) ___

_____________________________________________________ 4.6 __ --- ---__ Rob79812010 ( L1-4 ) _____

 5.7 __ 91.0 __ snowray ( 16 ) _______________________ 4.5 __109.0__ catbrainz ( 42 ) ___________

 5.7 __ 99.0 __ Feb1991Blizzard ( 40 ) _______________4.4 __ 79.2 __ Roger J Smith ( 26 ) _______

 5.7 __105.0__ Mr Maunder ( 51 ) ___________________4.4 __ 93.0 __ 1981-2010 average _______

 5.7 __ --- --- __ Mark Bayley ( 56 ) ___________________4.3 __ 76.0 __ Wold Topper ( 24 ) ________ 

 5.6 __ 91.7 __ bobd29 ( 07 ) ________________________4.2 __ 92.0 __ Weather Observer ( 52 ) ___

 5.6 __ --- ---__ Typhoon John ( 12 ) __________________4.1 __ --- --- __ Kentish Man ( 55 ) _________

 5.6 __123.0__ Reef ( 35 ) ___________________________ 4.0 __100.0__ Ed Stone ( 05 ) _____________

 5.5 __ 90.0 __ Leo97t ( 23 ) _________________________ 4.0 __100.0__ John88b ( 34 ) ______________

 5.5 __ 78.5 __ Thundery Wintry Showers ( L1-5 ) ___ 4.0 __105.0__ Mulzy (47) __________________

 5.5 __ --- ---__ damianslaw ( 36 ) ____________________3.9 __ 55.0 __ Neil N ( 33 ) _________________

 5.4 __122.0__ davehsug ( 38 ) ______________________ 3.9 __ 88.0 __ Stationary Front ( 45 ) ______

 5.4 __ 96.0 __ February1978 ( 59 ) _________________ 3.9 __ 90.0 __ daniel* ( L1-1 ) _____________

 5.3 __ --- ---__ Man with Beard ( 37 ) ________________3.8 __ 87.5 __ Polar Gael ( 08 ) ____________

 5.3 __121.0__ Don ( 54 ) ____________________________3.8 __ 89.0 __ summer blizzard ( 20 ) ______

 5.3 __110.0__ J10 ( 58 ) _____________________________ 3.7 __100.0__ Jeff C ( 01 ) __________________

 5.2 __101.0__ Mapantz ( 10 ) _______________________ 3.3__112.0__ Godbet1 ( 43 ) _______________ 

 5.2 __ --- ---__ Summer Sun ( 22 ) ___________________ 3.0 __ --- ---__ Quicksilver1989 ( L1-3 ) _____

 5.1 __ 80.0 __ Earthshine ( 17 ) _____________________ 2.9 __ 64.0 __ chilly milly ( 04 ) _____________

 5.1 __ 95.0 __ Norrance ( 41 ) _______________________2.8 __100.0__ Blast From the Past ( L1-7 ) __

 5.1 __ 98.0 __ Midlands Ice Age ( 50 ) ______________ 2.0 __ 97.0 __ jonboy ( 44 ) _________________

______________________________________________________

_ 5.05 _ 99.45 __ consensus ___________________________

 

 _______ 59 on time forecasts, plus seven late by one day, total 66, consensus 5.05 C

=================================

EWP forecasts in order

156 _SumSh .. 140 _Frig .. 131 _rwtwm .. 123 _Reef .. 122 _dave .. 121 _Don .. 120 _sum18, Ste, Moor ..

112 _IRem, wx26, godb .. 110 _fre, J10 .. 109 _cat .. 105 _Mul, MrM .. 104 _non .. 103 _EG .. 101 _Map

100 _Jeff, EdS, cym, DRL, john, DR(S)^,BFTP^ .. 99.9 _pSL .. 99 _Feb91 .. 98 _MIA, sea .. 97 _virt, jon ..

 96 _Feb78 .. 95.4 _93-22 .. 95 _sum8906, Norr ..  94.2 _91-20 .. 94 _shil .. 93.0 _81-10 .. 92 _WxOb

 91.7 _bobd .. 91 _snow .. 90 _leo, dan^ .. 89 _sb ..88 _SF .. 87.5 _PG .. 85 _SLE, PIT .. 80 _Earth

 79.2 _RJS .. 78.5 _TWS^ .. 76 _WT .. 68 _stew .. 64 _cm, dww .. 55 _NN .. 45 _syed

________________

52 on time forecasts, four late ^ for 56 total, consensus 99.45 mm

=========================================

 

late forecasts accepted to end of 3rd Jan, will be added to the table of forecasts

Edited January 1 by Roger J Smith

[Daniel*]

I think this is going to be an inverse to December milder first half, potentially much colder second half can see it being quite wintry final third especially if all goes well. 3.9C and 90mm thanks 🙂 

[Walsall Wood Snow]

Don't know if I'm too late, but if not I'll go for 4.8c please.

[Quicksilver1989]

I'll go for 3.0C

[Rob 79812010]

4.6 for me!

[Thundery wintry showers]

5.5C and 78.5mm please.

[DR(S)NO]

5.0c and 100mm  thank you please

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

2.8c and 100mm

 

BFTP

[Roger J Smith]

CET averages and extremes for January

_ all data now converted to v2.0

... the extremes are 1772-2022 ...[] below are for 1981-2010 []... these are again 1772-2022

DATE __ MAX (year) ____ MIN (year) ___ CET mean, cum  __ extremes of running CET 01-date

01 Jan ... 12.7 (2022) ... ... -5.9 (1820) ... ... 4.4 ... ... 4.4 ..... ..... 12.7 (2022) ... -5.9 (1820)
02 Jan ... 10.4 (1922.48) ... -6.1 (1786) ..... 4.5 ... ... 4.5 ..... ..... 11.3 (2022) ... -5.9 (1786)
03 Jan ... 11.5 (1932) ... ... -7.7 (1795) ... ... 4.1 ... ... 4.3 ..... ......10.4 (2022) ... -6.5 (1786)
04 Jan ... 10.4 (1948) ... ... -9.0 (1867) ... ... 4.1 ... ... 4.3 ..... ....... 9.5 (1916) ... -6.0 (1795)
05 Jan ... 11.3 (1957) ... ... -6.5 (1789) ... ... 4.5 ... ... 4.4 ..... ....... 9.3 (1916) ... -5.3 (1795)

06 Jan ... 10.4 (1898) ... ... -7.0 (1894) ... ... 4.5 ... ... 4.4 .... ....... 9.2 (1916) ... -4.6 (1795)
07 Jan ... 10.4 (1890) ... ... -7.7 (1841) ... ... 3.3 ... ... 4.2 ..... ....... 9.2 (1916) ... -3.9 (1795)
08 Jan ..... 9.7 (1775,1858) ... -9.2 (1841) ... 3.9 ... ..4.2 ..... ....... 8.8 (1916, 92) ... -3.3 (1795) (-3.2 1864)

09 Jan ... 10.6 (1998) ... ... -5.0 (1841) ... ... 4.2 ... ... 4.2 ..... ....... 8.5 (1916) ... -2.8 (1795) (-2.7 1864)
10 Jan ... 11.2 (1921) ... ... -6.7 (1814) ... ... 4.4 ... ... 4.3 ..... ....... 8.5 (1916) ... -3.0 (1814)

11 Jan ... 10.1 (1990) ... ... -5.5 (1838) ... ... 4.3 ... ... 4.3 ..... ....... 8.5 (1916) ... -3.2 (1814)
12 Jan ..... 9.9 (1976, 2007) .. -7.7 (1987) ....4.3 ... ... 4.3 ..... ....... 8.4 (1916) ... -3.4 (1814)
13 Jan ... 10.0 (1796, 2007) .. -6.6 (1987) ....4.5 ... ... 4.3 ..... ....... 8.4 (2007) ... -3.4 (1814)
14 Jan ... 10.2 (2011) ... ... -7.5 (1982) ... ... 4.3 ... ... 4.4 ..... ....... 8.3 (2007) ... -3.6 (1814)
15 Jan ... 10.3 (1804) ... ... -8.5 (1820) ... ... 4.5 ... ... 4.4 ..... ....... 8.2 (2007) ... -3.7 (1814)

16 Jan ... 10.8 (1990) ... ... -7.4 (1881) ... ... 4.7 ... ... 4.4 ..... ....... 8.2 (2007) ... -3.7 (1814)
17 Jan ... 10.2 (1908) ... ... -6.9 (1881) ... ... 4.5 ... ... 4.4 ..... ....... 8.3 (2007) ... -3.7 (1814)
18 Jan ... 10.0 (1828) ... ... -6.2 (1891) ... ... 4.4 ... ... 4.4 ..... ....... 8.3 (2007) ... -3.6 (1814)
19 Jan ... 11.2 (1930) ... ... -8.9 (1823) ... ... 5.0 ... ... 4.4 ..... ....... 8.3 (2007) ... -3.5 (1814)
20 Jan ... 11.2 (2008) ... ...-11.9 (1838) ... .. 5.0 ... ... 4.5 ..... ....... 8.4 (2007) ... -3.4 (1814)

21 Jan ... 10.8 (1796)... ... .-8.0 (1881) ... .. .5.0 ... ... 4.5 ..... ..... 8.4 (2007) ... -3.5 (1814)
22 Jan ... 10.2 (1969) ... ... -6.5 (1881) ... ... 4.3 ... ... 4.5 ..... ....... 8.3 (2007) ... -3.6 (1814)
23 Jan ... 11.6 (1834) ... ... -8.4 (1963) ... ... 4.3 ... ... 4.5 ..... ....... 8.0 (2007) ... -3.6 (1814)
24 Jan ... 10.6 (1782) ... ... -8.2 (1963) ... ... 4.3 ... ... 4.5 ..... ....... 7.7 (1916) ... -3.6 (1814)
25 Jan ... 11.6 (2016) ... ... -8.9 (1795) ... ... 4.0 ... ... 4.5 ..... ....... 7.6 (1916) ....-3.6 (1795, 1814)

26 Jan ... 10.0 (1834) ... ... -7.6 (1945) ... ... 4.0 ... ... 4.5 ..... ....... 7.6 (1916) ... -3.6 (1795)
27 Jan ... 10.5 (2016) ... ... -6.5 (1776) ... ... 4.1 ... ... 4.4 ..... ....... 7.6 (1916) ... -3.3 (1814)
28 Jan ..... 9.7 (1944,83) .. -6.3 (1776) ... ... 4.2 ... ... 4.4 ..... ....... 7.7 (1916) ... -3.2 (1814)
29 Jan ... 10.2 (1854,1966) .. -6.8 (1776) ... 4.5... ... 4.4 ..... ....... 7.7 (1916) ... -3.1 (1795, 1814)
30 Jan ... 10.2 (2000) ... ... -7.5 (1776) ... ... 4.1 ... ... 4.4 ..... ....... 7.7 (1916) ... -3.1 (1795)
31 Jan ... 10.7 (1868) ... ... -7.2 (1776) ... ... 4.4 ... ... 4.4 ..... ....... 7.6 (1916) ... -3.1 (1795)

_____________________________________________________________________________

As a measure of how cold Jan 1963 was, the running mean to 24th, 25th and 26th was -2.7 C. 

1814 fell back only to -2.9 C after finally losing the lead to 1795..2010 was -1.9 after ten days.

1834 almost caught the leaders by 28th at 7.5 C, finished on 7.1. ...

1796 was as high as 7.5 on the 25th and 1976 was at 8.0 on 13th and 14th, 7.8 on 22nd.

1873 was running close to 8.0 at mid-month. 

2002 had a 31-day interval mid-Jan to mid-Feb that averaged near 8.0 C. 

------------------------------------ --------------------------------------- --------------------------------------------

(tracking daily CET 1991-2020) ...  First number is the daily mean, second is the running average to that date. 

(these are legacy CET values, I think they will be very close to the v2.0 averages)

 1._ 4.7 _ 4.7 _____ 11._  5.0 _ 4.8 ______ 21.  4.3 _ 4.8 _______ 31._ 4.4 _ 4.7

 2._ 4.5 _ 4.6 _____ 12._  5.2 _ 4.8 ______ 22.  3.9 _ 4.8 _______ 

 3._ 4.2 _ 4.5 _____ 13._  5.4 _ 4.9 ______ 23.  4.0 _ 4.8 _______ 

 4._ 4.2 _ 4.4 _____ 14._  5.2 _ 4.9 ______ 24.  4.4 _ 4.7 _______ 

 5._ 4.6 _ 4.4 _____ 15._  5.1 _ 4.9 ______ 25.  4.5 _ 4.7 _______ 

 6._ 5.0 _ 4.5 _____ 16._  5.1 _ 4.9 ______ 26.  4.4 _ 4.7 _______ 

 7._ 4.7 _ 4.6 _____ 17._  4.7 _ 4.9 ______ 27.  4.5 _ 4.7 _______ 

 8._ 5.4 _ 4.7 _____ 18._  4.5 _ 4.9 ______ 28.  4.2 _ 4.7 _______ 

 9._ 5.1 _ 4.7 _____ 19._  4.8 _ 4.9 ______ 29.  4.4 _ 4.7 _______ 

10._ 5.1 _ 4.8 _____ 20._  4.6 _ 4.9 ______ 30.  4.1 _ 4.7 _______ 

=============================================================

 

Edited January 2 by Roger J Smith

[Summer Sun]

8.5c to the 1st

4.7c above the 61 to 90 average
4.1c above the 81 to 10 average

[prolongedSnowLover]

Gonna need a proper cold spell in the second half of Jan to negate the excessively mild start to Jan!

[Don]

5 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

8.5c to the 1st

4.7c above the 61 to 90 average
4.1c above the 81 to 10 average

That below average theme didn't last long, did it?! 😒

[Frigid]

1 hour ago, Don said:

That below average theme didn't last long, did it?! 😒

My thoughts.. literally. Thought the same thing after the cool-ish September but nope a Top 5 highest CET October and November occurred. 

Though, last year the CET was 12.7C to the 1st Jan.. but we ended up with a pretty average month. So for now, I'm not concerned yet. 

[North-Easterly Blast]

42 minutes ago, Frigid said:

My thoughts.. literally. Thought the same thing after the cool-ish September but nope a Top 5 highest CET October and November occurred. 

Though, last year the CET was 12.7C to the 1st Jan.. but we ended up with a pretty average month. So for now, I'm not concerned yet. 

No, I do not think that September 2022 was exactly cool - it had a CET of 14.4, which was still slightly above the most recent 1991-2020 average, and it was still quite a warm month by the older 1971-2000 and 1961-90 standards.  More correctly put, I agree that September 2022 was less above the average, compared to how July and August were, and the October and November that followed.

January 2022 although it started extremely mild, and was mostly dominated by high pressure over the UK, with little in the way of cold outbreaks from cold synoptics, did turn out to be a pretty average month by the most recent 1991-2020 average, but even then it was a fairly mild month by 1961-90 standards, and was still above the 1971-2000 and 1981-2010 averages, so it definitely was not a cold month.

[Roger J Smith]

The EWP looks to be headed in a near average to perhaps slightly wetter trajectory for the first seventeen days according to GFS. We've had about 5 mm so far and the grid average by 17th is around 60 mm so that would be 65 mm, January normals are close to 100 mm, so that's a bit above the pace but with the trend slowing down after a fairly steady accumulation this coming week.

The CET will lose a bit today but rest of this week looks very mild, running CET seems likely to get back above 8 for a while. The second week looks somewhat colder and around mid-month it's almost ice day material (on the GFS at least). So if all that verified, could see the running CET sliding down towards 5 C by about 17th. From there it could end up pretty much anywhere in our range of forecasts (our coldest forecast is 2.0 which is fairly high by most January contest standards, probably due to the obvious warmth of the first third making anything under 2 fairly hard to reach under any circumstances. There are a few cases where January did a mid-month reversal and ended up quite cold from a warm start, I think 1855, 1950, 2012 come to mind. If I went back through the 2012 or 2013 contest threads, bet there's a table of months where January turned cold, or if it starts to look relevant, I could produce one. 

The table I just posted has the extremes of running CET so after that 2022 anomaly fades out (it used to be 1851), 1916 and 2007  take over and record high running means are usually in the low to mid 8s after about the 7th. They start to sag down into the high 7's in the last third but there's no climate-based reason why we couldn't see an 8C January, there are month-long periods overlapping parts of January that run that warm (e.g. mid-Jan to mid-Feb of 2002), and Feb 1779 was 7.9. Sooner or later there no doubt will be an 8.0+ Jan but with this change in pattern being signalled, I don't think it will be this one. 

Whatever you make of climate change and the warming of late 1980s onward, it is quite striking how many of the particularly warm January values come from a long way back in the records. Of the 22 warmest that are 6.0 or higher, 14 were from 1932 or earlier (at random in a steady-state climate there should be 17) so the distribution is not particularly different from that random expectation, however of the top six all but 2007 are from 1921 or before, so that's where it least conforms to even random distribution, let alone the skewed results we see in some other months (like March where the top eight are all 1938 to 2017).

 

Edited January 2 by Roger J Smith

[SLEETY]

13 hours ago, Roger J Smith said:

The EWP looks to be headed in a near average to perhaps slightly wetter trajectory for the first seventeen days according to GFS. We've had about 5 mm so far and the grid average by 17th is around 60 mm so that would be 65 mm, January normals are close to 100 mm, so that's a bit above the pace but with the trend slowing down after a fairly steady accumulation this coming week.

The CET will lose a bit today but rest of this week looks very mild, running CET seems likely to get back above 8 for a while. The second week looks somewhat colder and around mid-month it's almost ice day material (on the GFS at least). So if all that verified, could see the running CET sliding down towards 5 C by about 17th. From there it could end up pretty much anywhere in our range of forecasts (our coldest forecast is 2.0 which is fairly high by most January contest standards, probably due to the obvious warmth of the first third making anything under 2 fairly hard to reach under any circumstances. There are a few cases where January did a mid-month reversal and ended up quite cold from a warm start, I think 1855, 1950, 2012 come to mind. If I went back through the 2012 or 2013 contest threads, bet there's a table of months where January turned cold, or if it starts to look relevant, I could produce one. 

The table I just posted has the extremes of running CET so after that 2022 anomaly fades out (it used to be 1851), 1916 and 2007  take over and record high running means are usually in the low to mid 8s after about the 7th. They start to sag down into the high 7's in the last third but there's no climate-based reason why we couldn't see an 8C January, there are month-long periods overlapping parts of January that run that warm (e.g. mid-Jan to mid-Feb of 2002), and Feb 1779 was 7.9. Sooner or later there no doubt will be an 8.0+ Jan but with this change in pattern being signalled, I don't think it will be this one. 

Whatever you make of climate change and the warming of late 1980s onward, it is quite striking how many of the particularly warm January values come from a long way back in the records. Of the 22 warmest that are 6.0 or higher, 14 were from 1932 or earlier (at random in a steady-state climate there should be 17) so the distribution is not particularly different from that random expectation, however of the top six all but 2007 are from 1921 or before, so that's where it least conforms to even random distribution, let alone the skewed results we see in some other months (like March where the top eight are all 1938 to 2017).

 

Difference is Roger,although their were mild January's going back to the 1700s and 1800s their were also bitterly cold January's at the same time,or at least bitterly cold spells in them. 

Since the late 80s its been nothing but warm January's bar a tiny few in 35 years being below the CET. 

Utterly pathetic how January is now, and this month is going to be above average too!! 

Edited January 3 by SLEETY

[Summer Sun]

6.8c to the 2nd

2.9c above the 61 to 90 average
2.3c above the 81 to 10 average

[LetItSnow!]

1 hour ago, SLEETY said:

Difference is Roger,although their were mild January's going back to the 1700s and 1800s their were also bitterly cold January's at the same time,or at least bitterly cold spells in them. 

Since the late 80s its been nothing but warm January's bar a tiny few in 35 years being below the CET. 

Utterly pathetic how January is now, and this month is going to be above average too!! 

Unlike December and February it very much feels like January has been rather nondescript for the C.E.T. in the last 15 years really. Apart from the notably mild January 2020, a lot of Januaries have been in the unexceptionally mild or average category with 4s and 5s being very common. Early days but I wouldn’t be surprised if this is another one of those .

 

@Roger J Smithwhat time was the cut off to enter as I believe the 3rd is always the latest vote. 

[Scorcher]

3 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

6.8c to the 2nd

2.9c above the 61 to 90 average
2.3c above the 81 to 10 average

Normal service resumed by the looks of it.

Edited January 3 by Scorcher

[damianslaw]

A very mild first third to January on the cards, not too unusual I guess, given this is often a very westerly atlantic dominated period and with an airstream from between west and south a high mean to be be expected. Signs we may well see something at least closer to average as we approach mid month. I remember 2013 brought an exceptionally mild first 10 days followed by a much colder middle thirds to latter end, not saying this will happen, but swift changes can and often occur in January.

[prolongedSnowLover]

Might have gone too cold - looks distinctly above average currently!

[Scorcher]

20 hours ago, LetItSnow! said:

Unlike December and February it very much feels like January has been rather nondescript for the C.E.T. in the last 15 years really. Apart from the notably mild January 2020, a lot of Januaries have been in the unexceptionally mild or average category with 4s and 5s being very common. Early days but I wouldn’t be surprised if this is another one of those .

 

@Roger J Smithwhat time was the cut off to enter as I believe the 3rd is always the latest vote. 

If this is the case perhaps we're due an exceptionally mild January. It seems to me that a lot of things are in place to potentially make this a notably mild month. The extent and magnitude of the mild air over Continental Europe in the last few days has been astonishing.

[Summer Sun]

6.5c to the 3rd

2.7c above the 61 to 90 average
2.2c above the 81 to 10 average

[North-Easterly Blast]

3 hours ago, Scorcher said:

If this is the case perhaps we're due an exceptionally mild January. It seems to me that a lot of things are in place to potentially make this a notably mild month. The extent and magnitude of the mild air over Continental Europe in the last few days has been astonishing.

January 2020 had a CET of 6.4.  Prior to that we had January 2007 with a CET of 7.0 and then January 2008 with 6.6, so that is what I would call three notably mild Januarys in the last 20 years.  January 2005 also had 6.0 in the old legacy series, although it has been revised down to 5.9 in the new series.  Personally I think that a January CET over 6*C puts it in the notably mild category.  

Although it is still only the 4th, it is already difficult to see this month being anything other than above average.

[summer blizzard]

2 hours ago, North-Easterly Blast said:

January 2020 had a CET of 6.4.  Prior to that we had January 2007 with a CET of 7.0 and then January 2008 with 6.6, so that is what I would call three notably mild Januarys in the last 20 years.  January 2005 also had 6.0 in the old legacy series, although it has been revised down to 5.9 in the new series.  Personally I think that a January CET over 6*C puts it in the notably mild category.  

Although it is still only the 4th, it is already difficult to see this month being anything other than above average.

Worth saying that Jan 05 was mostly dry and settled but cloudy so it wasn't the mild, zonal month that the CET makes it appear. It was rather a dry, full, drab affair with the Azores High often parked just to the south west and likely mild nights. We did get two major low pressures in the north successively though.