January 2023 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests

[Roger J Smith]

On 03/01/2023 at 05:58, LetItSnow! said:

Unlike December and February it very much feels like January has been rather nondescript for the C.E.T. in the last 15 years really. Apart from the notably mild January 2020, a lot of Januaries have been in the unexceptionally mild or average category with 4s and 5s being very common. Early days but I wouldn’t be surprised if this is another one of those .

 

@Roger J Smithwhat time was the cut off to enter as I believe the 3rd is always the latest vote. 

Sorry I was away for a couple of days there and just saw this now, the deadline is always the end of the 3rd of each month. Did you get the impression entries were cut off because I can't see any indication of that anywhere, nor was the table of forecasts presented in any different form than every other month. I always post it at the end of the on-time period, then edit in the late entries as they happen. I think there were seven on the first, which are in there. If anyone had entered on 2nd or 3rd they would be in the table now. Actually I don't quite understand the question, did something happen in the thread to convey the message "entries are now cut off" ? I don't see it. 

[LetItSnow!]

13 hours ago, Roger J Smith said:

Sorry I was away for a couple of days there and just saw this now, the deadline is always the end of the 3rd of each month. Did you get the impression entries were cut off because I can't see any indication of that anywhere, nor was the table of forecasts presented in any different form than every other month. I always post it at the end of the on-time period, then edit in the late entries as they happen. I think there were seven on the first, which are in there. If anyone had entered on 2nd or 3rd they would be in the table now. Actually I don't quite understand the question, did something happen in the thread to convey the message "entries are now cut off" ? I don't see it. 

as in a cut off point?... no, i just didn't remember and i don't always check the thread + i haven't been that active recently. people forget stuff sometimes 

[snowray]

What surprised me is how many members have already dropped out after one month, I think we had 91 entrants in December, so almost a third by my reckoning have not entered January. Maybe its coldies that wanted a white Christmas and are now disappointed with the recent and ongoing mild mush? Who knows.

[kold weather]

Looking like a very mild first half of the month coming up. Provably going to require a fairly solid cold spell to get us even back to average. 61-90 already looking pretty solidly above average unless there is another Dec 22 spell inbound.

[Roger J Smith]

5 hours ago, snowray said:

What surprised me is how many members have already dropped out after one month, I think we had 91 entrants in December, so almost a third by my reckoning have not entered January. Maybe its coldies that wanted a white Christmas and are now disappointed with the recent and ongoing mild mush? Who knows.

This is normal, we often get a publicity boost from Net-weather for the December contest and get 20-30 additional entries from Net-weather regulars (often names I recognize from model threads) but either they think the contest is a one-time thing, or they don't wish to continue on after the novelty of entering. Usually one or two of those people do stick with it and replace the one or two who drop out after many years. 

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield at 7.1C +2.3C above average. Rainfall at 25.2mm 33.9% of the monthly average.

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield at 7.4C +2.6C above normal. Rainfall 26.9mm 36.2% of the monthly average

[reef]

Still no update from Hadley since the 3rd.

We're running on 8.4C (+3.8C) here so far, so there's a good chance the CET will be 8C+.

The core part of winter has been pants. The last 20 days have averaged 7.6C for us. 

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

2 hours ago, reef said:

Still no update from Hadley since the 3rd.

We're running on 8.4C (+3.8C) here so far, so there's a good chance the CET will be 8C+.

The core part of winter has been pants. The last 20 days have averaged 7.6C for us. 

That’s been the case for the past 35 years really. When has a January impressed last time ?

[North-Easterly Blast]

11 minutes ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

That’s been the case for the past 35 years really. When has a January impressed last time ?

We have only had one significantly cold January since 1987 (the last 36 years), and that was in 2010 with a CET of 1.4 (on the old legacy series)  More recently in 2021 we have been a little below the 1961-90 average, and 2013 was also a little below average I think.  You are dead right, most Januarys since 1987 have basically seen no proper cold.

[summer blizzard]

Jan 91, Jan 92, Jan 97, Jan 01, Jan 09, Jan 10, Jan 13 and Jan 21 were all relatively cold. Certainly i recall 01, 09, 10, 13 and 21 delivering here. Bit young for the others though i recall snow in Jan 97. 

[Don]

3 hours ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

That’s been the case for the past 35 years really. When has a January impressed last time ?

2010 and to a lesser extent 2013.

[North-Easterly Blast]

1 hour ago, summer blizzard said:

Jan 91, Jan 92, Jan 97, Jan 01, Jan 09, Jan 10, Jan 13 and Jan 21 were all relatively cold. Certainly i recall 01, 09, 10, 13 and 21 delivering here. Bit young for the others though i recall snow in Jan 97. 

I think that January 1992 was colder in the latter half due to an anticyclonic block sat over the UK giving surface cold, and not deep cold Arctic air or proper cold synoptics.  January 1997 started with a continuation of a cold easterly spell that had begun in the later part of December 1996, and it lasted until 10th January 1997, when that winter effectively ended, and the cold was never to return, as the rest of Jan 1997 was fairly average, non-descript and anticyclonic, and Feb 1997 was more or less very mild all month.  Since then you are correct that on a handful of occasions over the years such as in 2001, 2009, 2013 and 2021 the January CET has been slightly below the 1961-90 average but only January 2010 was significantly cold since 1987.

[Roger J Smith]

Looking rather cold eventually and also rather dry, would say 5 C and 60 mm possible targets. 

[Don]

2 hours ago, Roger J Smith said:

Looking rather cold eventually and also rather dry, would say 5 C and 60 mm possible targets. 

CET I may likely be close but the EWP will be somewhat off?!!

Edited January 8, 2023 by Don

[Man With Beard]

9 hours ago, Roger J Smith said:

Looking rather cold eventually and also rather dry, would say 5 C and 60 mm possible targets. 

It does look like things are going to tilt a bit colder by mid month, though nothing extraordinary. Will it be enough to counter the mild start? I feel we're going to need to go colder still than what the D6-10 charts are showing.

[snowray]

A week or so of frosts would do it, even if day temps are mediocre.

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield at 7.6C +2.9C above normal. Rainfall 30.4mm 40.9% of the monthly average.

Could well be up to 8C to 8.3C here by the end of this week. Very good chance of a record warm January. The warmest here is 2007 with 6.4C.

Edited January 8, 2023 by The PIT

[Scorcher]

3 hours ago, snowray said:

A week or so of frosts would do it, even if day temps are mediocre.

I really can't see where frosts are coming from other than the odd isolated night. Anything significantly colder is still well into FI. Could change of course but the first half is going to be very mild.

[snowray]

41 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

I really can't see where frosts are coming from other than the odd isolated night. Anything significantly colder is still well into FI. Could change of course but the first half is going to be very mild.

First half will be very mild but a frosty spell of weather can't be ruled out just yet in the second half of the month, there are hints it could turn a fair bit colder and more in the way of HP dominance. Pity we don't get regular/daily CET updates any more.

[Don]

5 hours ago, Man With Beard said:

It does look like things are going to tilt a bit colder by mid month, though nothing extraordinary. Will it be enough to counter the mild start? I feel we're going to need to go colder still than what the D6-10 charts are showing.

I think an above average January is pretty much in the bag now, question being will it end up slightly or moderately above?  I don't think an exceptionally mild month is on the cards.

Edited January 8, 2023 by Don

[kold weather]

I think its pretty obvious the 1st half of the month is going to be way above average. I think an above average month on the 61-90 is pretty close to 100% now, it would take a historic cold spell to reverse that at this stage.

With that being said there are more than a few hints at something below average, so I agree with others that think something above, but probably not hugely above seems most likely at this stage.

[North-Easterly Blast]

2 hours ago, kold weather said:

I think its pretty obvious the 1st half of the month is going to be way above average. I think an above average month on the 61-90 is pretty close to 100% now, it would take a historic cold spell to reverse that at this stage.

With that being said there are more than a few hints at something below average, so I agree with others that think something above, but probably not hugely above seems most likely at this stage.

It is now 100% certain that another January is passing by without being notably cold - only one January was significantly cold since 1987 (36 years ago), and that was January 2010.  On a handful of occasions in other recent years we have been slightly below the 1961-90 average (2021, 2013, 2009, 2001), but it is a truly appalling show for winter weather in the UK, to think that only one January in 36 years has produced a significantly cold CET.

On another hand, April 2021 is the only significantly below average April CET since 1989, but the statistics for January look just as poor as this with 2010 producing the only significantly cold January since 1987.

Edited January 8, 2023 by North-Easterly Blast

[North-Easterly Blast]

3 minutes ago, North-Easterly Blast said:

 

 

Edited January 8, 2023 by North-Easterly Blast

[Roger J Smith]

Strong winds are indicated on several occasions, 13th to 17th. It also turns a lot colder during the days after those windstorm events. As people have said, average will be quite high when that happens, so a case of how much could it fall from near-record 8 C average. In 2007 there was a windstorm on the 18th-19th, and a few colder days followed (the month was sitting mid-8 at a record pace) but the fall was only a small one with that month ending up 7.0. Hadley CET and EWP continue to be untended, maybe we'll see updates on Monday.