January 2023 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests

[Roger J Smith]

Here's another cold spell that lengthens out considerably accepting the marginal values ... 

from 13 to 25 days ... 

1986-02-06 -1.6

1986-02-07 -1.3

1986-02-08 -0.8

1986-02-09 -1.5

1986-02-10 -4.5

1986-02-11 -4.0

1986-02-12 -1.1

1986-02-13 -0.8

1986-02-14 -1.8

1986-02-15 -0.4

1986-02-16 -0.5

1986-02-17 -0.1

1986-02-18 -0.2

1986-02-19 0.2

1986-02-20 -2.4

1986-02-21 -4.2

1986-02-22 -2.5

1986-02-23 -2.3

1986-02-24 -0.9

1986-02-25 -1.8

1986-02-26 -2.2

1986-02-27 -1.4

1986-02-28 0.4

1986-03-01 -0.2

1986-03-02 0.2

1986-03-03 -0.4

 

[Roger J Smith]

So the question about "matter of opinion" is not whether 0.0 is subzero (obviously not) but whether the criterion for significant cold spells should be subzero days, or 0.0 and lower, or even the modified version I proposed where all values round off to zero. So that involves opinion. A long stretch of days colder than 2.0 was proposed by A Winter's Tale who posted his list of those on my thread. I guess the logic of 2.0 or lower is that around 2.0 or higher you're not likely to see much lying snow, and you're no longer pretty much guaranteed subzero minimum values. 

[LetItSnow!]

Well, it looks like another unexceptional January to add to the mix of the past 14 years. Apart from January 2020 which was quite a mild one at 6.4C, Januaries since 2009 have been a rather tame affair with most ranging from the 3 to 5s. Temperature-wise it must be one of our least exceptional months of the year in recent times and stands against the notably mild Decembers and Februaries. Even in our warmest year ever recorded, January 2022 was a very modest 4.7. Looking for a similar figure this year. Rather mild for old times but very average or even a tad below average in the 90s-present era.

[Frigid]

27 minutes ago, LetItSnow! said:

Well, it looks like another unexceptional January to add to the mix of the past 14 years. Apart from January 2020 which was quite a mild one at 6.4C, Januaries since 2009 have been a rather tame affair with most ranging from the 3 to 5s. Temperature-wise it must be one of our least exceptional months of the year in recent times and stands against the notably mild Decembers and Februaries. Even in our warmest year ever recorded, January 2022 was a very modest 4.7. Looking for a similar figure this year. Rather mild for old times but very average or even a tad below average in the 90s-present era.

I agree, if you look back at July's over the past decade they've been varied and a lot more interesting. Can't say the same about January. Hot July's (2013, 2018, 2022) and quite cool ones (2015, 2020). At the peak of winter you'd expect some interest but alas it's been quite tame

[Weather-history]

I noticed a checkerboard pattern, a year or two back that since and including January 2011 that odd year Januarys were colder than even year Januarys, although it looks like it is going to be broken this year.

However, what just struck me is the temperature difference between consecutive Januarys, it has at least been  +/-1.0°C. Not since Januarys 2007 and 2008 has the CET been within 0.5°C of each other.

2008-09  -3.5

2009-10 -1.6

2010-11  +2.2

2011-12   +1.8

2012-13  -2.0

2013-14  +2.2

2014-15  -1.2

2015-16  +1.0

2016-17  -1.5

2017-18  +1.3

2018-19  -1.3

2019-20  +2.4

2020-21 -3.2

2021-22  +1.5

 

 

Edited January 21, 2023 by Weather-history

[North-Easterly Blast]

34 minutes ago, LetItSnow! said:

Well, it looks like another unexceptional January to add to the mix of the past 14 years. Apart from January 2020 which was quite a mild one at 6.4C, Januaries since 2009 have been a rather tame affair with most ranging from the 3 to 5s. Temperature-wise it must be one of our least exceptional months of the year in recent times and stands against the notably mild Decembers and Februaries. Even in our warmest year ever recorded, January 2022 was a very modest 4.7. Looking for a similar figure this year. Rather mild for old times but very average or even a tad below average in the 90s-present era.

The January 2022 figure of 4.7 has been revised upwards from 4.6 in the legacy version.  January 2022 was about the most recent 91-20 average, although still a mild month by 61-90 standards.

The most modern 1991-2020 average CET for January is 4.66*C.  Compare this with the 1961-90 average which was 3.81*C.  These figures are using the legacy series.  There is still a chance that the final CET for this month could fall into the 4s, but if we do not manage to get much colder air over us in the last week it could finish above 5*C.  So yes January 2023 is likely to end up above average by the most recent 1991-2020 average, and it will still be a mild month by 1961-90 standards.

Yet again we avoid a cold January.  We have only had one January (2010) that was significantly cold since 1987; since even before any figures were included in the 1991-2020 average.  On a handul of more recent occasions we have been slightly below the 1961-90 average (low to mid 3s), in 2021, 2013, 2009 etc, and 2011 was under 4*C.

[North-Easterly Blast]

16 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

I noticed a checkerboard pattern, a year or two back that since and including January 2011 that odd year Januarys were colder than even year Januarys, although it looks like it is going to be broken this year.

However, what just struck me is the temperature difference between consecutive Januarys, it has at least been  +/-1.0°C. Not since Januarys 2007 and 2008 has the CET been within 0.5°C of each other.

 

 

 

Yes I noticed that, 2011 was the last odd year January that had a higher CET than its preceding even year January, and 2010 was the last even year January to have a lower CET than its preceding odd year January.  That checkerboard pattern was the case right up to last year.  This CET this month looks unlikely to fall below last year's figure, so it is now looking as though that checkerboard pattern will not be the case this year.

Edited January 21, 2023 by North-Easterly Blast

[Summer Sun]

6.1c to the 20th

2.3c above the 61 to 90 average
1.6c above the 81 to 10 average

[dryfie]

Not quite the correct forum, but nearest I can find:

Many years ago I recall learning that not all countries use the same procedure for working out the equivalent of 'daily' temperatures such as we use for CET.  Instead of (0900 min+2100 max)/2 there were variations.  Think for example that Germany was (0200 + 0900 min + 1400 + 2100 max)/4.  If my memory is correct over this, does it make much difference in the daily results obtained and, if so, does it make comparisons between affected countries impossible?

Thanks in antic

[SummerShower]

Is it me or have most of January's figures increased by 0.1C on today's update?

 

 

[Frigid]

8 minutes ago, SummerShower said:

Is it me or have most of January's figures increased by 0.1C on today's update?

 

 

Yeah idk what they're playing at. Might as well bring back the end of month corrections 

Edited January 21, 2023 by Frigid

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield down to 5.7C +1.1C above average. Rainfall unchanged.

[snowray]

2 hours ago, SummerShower said:

Is it me or have most of January's figures increased by 0.1C on today's update?

 

 

Yes, all very strange indeed.

[Roger J Smith]

You're right about the general 0.1 increase, I see the lower set on one link (all-time) and the new higher numbers on the 2023 link. Perhaps a decision was taken to recalibrate one (or more) instruments retroactive to 1st of January. For whatever reason, quality control might have suggested that one location's thermometer was reading 0.3 low (so the total after being divided by three was 0.1 low). The only other logical explanation is that the urban heat island correction has decreased to 0.1 from 0.2 which would result in an increase of 0.1 to all data. That seems unlikely, eventually a larger u.h.i. correction may be deemed appropriate and then the data will be lower rather than higher.

They may issue an explanation in coming days. Recently I questioned some CEP daily data in the new format and they agreed with my suggestion, corrected the data and issued an explanation (they also found the same sort of error in one Scottish regional EWP data set). You'll notice a green box on the home page for EWP with a correction note and a list of dates corrected. 

[Roger J Smith]

EWP now sits at 91 mm and looks almost bone dry to end of month on GFS, might add 2-4 mm. I scored the contest for 95 mm and found that summer8906 would lead the annual contest with the three recent normals ahead of all actual forecasters. May post some preliminary scores in a day or two if the trend stays dry. 

My current estimate for the CET outcome is near 5 C. From 6.0 after today (may be 5.8-5.9) an average of 3 C for 22nd-31st would produce an outcome of 5.0, 4 C would lead to 5.3. I think it would likely finish around that range given that nights look to stay fairly cold almost to end of month.  

[Roger J Smith]

PRELIMINARY EWP SCORING (annual contest and January update)

January scoring is based on provisional value of 95.1 mm. This table will be updated to later indicated outcomes until the tracker finishes its work on 2nd of Feb. At that time this table will migrate to a more visible post on 2nd. Check back as any small adjustments may not be announced in the thread.

All average errors are ranked, but going forward the criterion will be 2/3, 2/4, 3/5, 3/6 and then 4/7 up to 9/12 contests with three missed the minimum requirement. That means ranks below for those who missed Jan after playing Dec will go dormant if they also miss Feb, but can be reactivated by entering any eight of nine remaining March to November. The points ranks are always based on total points regardless of number of contests entered. Unlike the CET contest, you do not gain points directly for having a high average score.

With 56 entrants, there is a scoring level differential of .182, which is applied to each group of five so that the first progression of scoring levels is 10.00, 9.82, 9.64, 9.46, 9.28, 9.09 and so on. Equal forecast errors are scored at the same level (the next closest goes down two levels, plus any duplicates of the tied forecasts which are also scored equally to each other). Duplicates in all cases drop 0.10 per entry. Wrong side of normal penalties are .01 for first after normal, .02 for second etc, until .06 then equally .06 to end of that category. Late penalties applied after all of the preceding adjustments, 0.30 per day. This may drop a late forecast down one or two ranks relative to error, which is noted below for two cases where the next lowest error attains a higher scoring rank (but is scored from one lower scoring level without penalties). If you have a late penalty and join a large group of similar forecasts, then the smaller drops for duplicate forecasts will usually prevent this from happening as can be seen for two forecasts below, at the popular choice of 100 mm.

 

Contest _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _____ _ _ _ _ _  (absolute) _ _ _ _ _

 Rank ____ Forecaster (Jan fcst) ______ Dec score _Jan score (rank) __ TOTAL _____ Dec err _Jan err __avg (rank)

_ 01 ____ summer8906 (95.0) _________ 9.60 ____ 10.00 ( 1) __________ 19.60 _______ 7.0 ____ 0.1 ____ 3.55 ( 1)

_ 02 ____ February1978 (96.0) _________8.33 _____ 9.64 ( 3) ___________ 17.97 ______18.0 ____ 0.9 ____ 9.45 ( 6)

_ 03 ____ Bobd29 (91.7) _______________ 9.48 _____ 8.34 (10) __________ 17.82 _______ 8.5 ____ 3.4 ____ 5.95 ( 4) 

_ 04 ____ jonboy (97.0) ________________ 8.04 _____ 9.18 ( 6) ___________ 17.22 ______ 22.0 ____ 1.9 ___ 11.95 (T9)

_T05____ prolongedSnowLover (99.9) _ 8.56 _____ 7.82 (13) __________ 16.38 ______ 17.0 ____ 4.8 ____ 10.90 ( 7)

_T05____ Feb1991Blizzard (99.0) ______ 8.20 _____ 8.18 (11) ___________16.38 ______ 20.0 ____ 3.9 ____ 11.95 (T9)

_ 07 ____ Norrance (95.0) ______________6.33 _____ 9.90 ( 2) ___________ 16.23 ______ 32.0 ____ 0.1 ____ 16.05 (21)

_ 08 ____ Midlands Ice Age (98.0) _____ 6.84 ______8.91 ( 7) ____________15.75 ______ 27.0 ____ 2.9 ____ 14.95 (17)

_ 09 ____ Jeff C (100.0) _________________ 8.08 _____ 7.64 (14) ___________ 15.72 ______ 22.0 ____ 4.9 ____ 13.45 (T13)

_ 10 ____ Leo97t (90.0) ________________ 8.97 _____ 6.31 (21) ___________ 15.28 ______ 12.0 ____ 5.1 _____ 8.55 ( 5)

_ 11 ____ cymro (100.0) ________________7.56 _____ 7.44 (16)  ___________15.00 ______ 24.0 ____ 4.9 ____ 14.45 (16)

_ 12 ____ virtualsphere (97.0) _________ 5.69 _____ 9.28 ( 5) ____________ 14.97 ______ 36.0 ____ 1.9 ____ 18.95 (T24)

_ 13 ____ DR(S)NO (100.0) _____________ 8.00 _____ 6.84 (19^ ___________14.84 ______ 22.0 ____ 4.9 ____ 13.45 (T13)

_ 14 ____ DiagonalRedLine (100.0) _____6.41 _____ 7.34 (17) ___________ 13.75 ______ 32.0 ____ 4.9 ____ 18.45 (23)

_ 15 ____ Mulzy (105.0) ________________ 8.72 _____ 4.91 (29) ___________ 13.63 ______ 16.0 ____ 9.9 ____ 12.95 (T11)

_ 16 ____ EdStone (100.0) ______________5.77 _____ 7.54 (15) ____________13.31 ______ 36.0 ____ 4.9 ____ 20.45 (28)

_ 17 ____ Stationary Front (88.0) ______ 7.69 _____ 5.58 (25) ____________ 13.27 ______ 23.0 ____ 7.1 ____ 15.05 (18)

_T18 ____ Weather26 (112.0) ___________ 9.74 _____ 2.99 (40) ___________12.73 _______ 6.0 ____ 16.9 ____ 11.45 ( 8.)

_T18 ____ Roger J Smith (79.2) _________ 9.34 ______ 3.39 (37) ___________12.73 ______ 10.0 ____15.9 ____ 12.95 (T11)

_ 20 ____  J 10 (110.0) __________________ 8.59 _____ 3.90 (35) ____________12.49 ______ 17.0 ___ 14.9 ____ 15.95 (20)

_ 21 ____ seaside60 (98.0) _____________ 3.28 ______8.81 ( 8.) ____________12.09 ______ 51.0 ____ 2.9 ____ 26.95 (37)

_ 22 ____ Emmett Garland (103.0) _____ 6.54 _____ 5.27 (27) ___________ 11.81 ______ 31.0 ____ 7.9 ____ 19.45 (27)

_ 23 ____ Summer 18 (120.0) __________ 9.36 _____ 2.36 (43) ____________11.72 ______ 10.0 ___ 24.9 ____ 17.45 (22)

_ 24____ Weather Observer (92.0) ____ 2.75 ______8.53 ( 9) _____________11.28 ______ 53.0 ____ 3.1 ____ 28.05 (42)

_ 25 ____ Don (121.0) __________________ 8.89 _____ 1.81 (46) ___________ 10.70 ______ 12.0 ___ 27.1 ____ 18.95 (T24)

_ 26 ____ Reef (123.0) __________________9.28 _____ 1.27 (49) ____________10.55 ______ 10.0 ___ 27.9 ____ 18.95 (T24)

_ 27 ____ snowray (91.0) ______________ 2.57 _____ 7.96 (12) ____________ 10.53 ______ 54.0 ____ 4.1 ____ 29.05 (T45)

_ 28 ____ John88b (100.0) _____________ 3.08 _____ 7.24 (18) ____________ 10.32 ______ 52.0 ____ 4.9 ____ 28.45 (43)

_ 29 ____ Polar Gael (87.5) _____________4.88 _____ 5.39 (26) ____________10.27 ______ 41.8  ____ 7.6 ____ 24.70 (31)

_ 30 ____ daniel* (90.0) ________________4.24 _____ 5.91 (23^ ____________10.15 ______ 46.0 ____ 5.1 ____ 25.55 (34)

_ 31 ____ DCee ( -- --) __________________10.00 _____ -- -- --- ______________ 10.00 _______ 4.0 ____ -- -- _____ 4.0 (T2)

_ 32 ____ Robbie Garrett ( -- --) ________ 9.92 _____ -- -- ---  ________________9.92________ 4.0 ____ -- -- _____ 4.0 (T2)

_ 33 ____ shillitocettwo (94.0) _________ 0.27 _____ 9.47 ( 4) ______________ 9.74 ______ 76.0 ____ 1.1 ____ 38.55 (58)

_ 34 ____ freeze (110.0) ________________5.53 _____ 4.00 (34) _____________ 9.53 ______ 36.0 ___ 14.9 ____ 25.45 (34)

_ 35 ____ SteveB (120.0) _______________ 7.18 _____ 2.26 (44)  ____________ 9.44 ______ 25.0 ___ 24.9 ____ 24.95 (T32)

_ 36 ____ Summer Blizzard (89.0) ______3.64 _____ 5.76 (24) _____________ 9.40 ______ 49.0 ____ 6.1 ____ 27.55 (41)

_ 37 ____ I Remember Atlantic (112.0) _ 6.10 _____ 3.09 (38)**___________9.19 ______ 33.0  ___ 16.9 ____ 24.95 (T32)

_ 38 ____ SLEETY (85.0) ________________ 4.37 _____ 4.48 (31) _____________ 8.85 ______ 44.0 ___10.1 ____ 27.05 (39)

_ 39 ____ noname_weather (104.0) ___ 3.56 _____ 5.09 (28) _____________ 8.65 ______ 49.0 ____ 8.9 ____ 28.95 (44)

_ 40 ____ BlastFromThePast (100.0)___ 1.90 _____ 6.74 (20^ _____________8.64 ______ 57.0 ____ 4.9 ____ 30.95 (47)

_ 41 ____ stewfox (68.0) _______________ 7.05 _____ 1.39 (48) _____________ 8.44 ______ 26.0 ___ 27.1 ____ 26.55 (36)

_ 42 ____ Wold Topper (76.0) __________ 5.13 _____ 2.48 (42) _____________ 7.61 ______ 39.0 ___ 19.1 ____ 29.05 (T45)

_ 43 ____ Mapantz (101.0) _____________1.60 _____ 6.00 (22)** ___________ 7.60 ______ 58.0 ____ 5.9 ____ 31.95 (49)

_ 44 ____ snowboy111 ( --- ) ___________ 7.51 _____ --- --- _________________ 7.51 ______ 24.0 ____ -- -- ____ 24.00 (T29)

_ 45 ____ Booferking ( --- ) _____________ 7.48 _____ --- --- _________________ 7.48 ______ 24.0 ____ -- -- ____ 24.00 (T29)

_ 46 ____Thundery Wintry Showers (78.5) _ 4.36 _____ 3.00 (39^ _____________ 7.36 ______ 45.7 ____ 16.6 ____ 31.15 (48)

_ 47 ____ dancerwithwings (64.0) _______6.03 _____ 0.92 (51) ____________ 6.95 ______ 34.0 ____ 31.1 ____ 32.55 (50)

_ 48 ____ Mark Neal ( --- ) ______________ 6.92 _____ --- --- _________________ 6.92 ______ 27.0 ____ -- -- ____ 27.00 (38)

_ 49 ____ Kirkcaldy Weather ( --- ) ______ 6.67 _____ --- --- _________________ 6.67 ______ 27.2 ____ -- -- ____ 27.20 (40)

_ 50 ____ Mr Maunder (105.0) _________ 1.44 _____ 4.81 (30) ______________6.25 ______ 58.0 ____ 9.9 ____ 33.95 (51)

_ 51 ____ Tidal Wave ( --- ) _____________ 5.90 _____ --- --- __________________ 5.90 ______ 35.0 ____ -- -- ____ 35.00 (52)

_ 52 ____ Moorlander (120.0) __________ 3.72 _____ 2.16 (45) ______________5.88 ______ 49.0 ___ 24.9 ____ 36.95 (55)

_ 53 ____ Cumbrian Ice ( --- ) ___________ 5.61 _____ --- --- __________________5.61 ______ 36.0 ____ -- -- ____ 36.0 (53)

_ 54 ____ rwtwm (131.0) ________________4.75 _____ 0.72 (52) _____________ 5.47 ______ 44.0 ___ 35.9 ____ 39.95 (59)

_ 55 ____ The PIT (85.0) _________________ 0.92 _____ 4.38 (32) _____________5.30 ______ 62.0 ___10.1 ____ 36.05 (54)

_ 56 ____ Stargazer ( --- ) ________________5.26 _____ --- --- _________________ 5.26 ______ 38.0 ____ -- -- ____ 38.00 (57)

_ 57 ____ SouthLondonCold ( --- ) __)___ 5.00 _____ --- --- __________________5.00 ______ 41.0 ____ -- -- ____ 41.00 (60)

_T58 ____ Godber1 (112.0) _____________ 1.68 _____ 2.81 (41) _____________ 4.49 ______ 58.0 ____ 16.9 ____ 37.45 (56)

_T58 ____ Kentspur ( --- ) _______________ 4.49 _____ --- --- _________________ 4.49  ______ 45.5 ____ -- -- ____ 45.50 (62)

_ 60 ____ catbrainz (109.0) _____________ -- -- ______ 4.18 (33) _____________ 4.18 ______ --- --- ___ 13.9 ____ 13.90 (15)

_ 61 ____ Ross Andrew Hemphill (---) ___ 4.11 _____ --- --- _________________ 4.11 ______ 47.0 ____ -- -- ____ 47.00 (T63)

_ 62 ____ Andrew Burden ( --- ) _________ 4.03 _____ --- --- _________________ 4.03 ______ 47.0 ____ -- -- ____ 47.00 (T63)

_ 63 ____ Fozfoster ( --- ) ________________ 3.95 _____ --- --- _________________ 3.95 ______ 47.0 ____ -- -- ____ 47.00 (T63)

_ 64 ____ Earthshine (80.0) _____________-- -- ______ 3.66 (36) _____________ 3.66 ______ --- --- ____ 15.1 ____ 15.10 (19)

_ 65 ____ S Bragg ( --- ) _________________ 3.36 _____ --- --- _________________ 3.36 ______ 51.0 ____ -- -- _____ 51.00 (67)

_ 66 ____ sunny_vale ( --- ) ______________ 3.00 _____ --- --- _________________ 3.00 ______ 52.0 ____ -- -- ____ 52.00 (69)

_ 67 ____ davehsug (122.0) ____________ 1.36 _____ 1.63 (47)  _____________ 2.99 ______ 58.0 ____ 26.9 ____ 42.45 (61)

_ 68 ____ icykev ( --- ) __________________ 2.83 _____ --- --- __________________ 2.83 ______ 53.0 ____ -- -- ____ 53.00 (70)

_ 69 ____ vizzy2004 ( --- ) ______________ 2.49 _____ --- --- __________________ 2.49 ______ 54.0 ____ -- -- ____ 54.00 (T72)

_ 70 ____ Frigid (140.0) ________________ 2.06 _____ 0.36 (54) ______________ 2.42 ______ 57.0 ____ 44.9 ____ 50.95 (66)

_ 71 ____ coldest winter ( --- ) _________ 2.41 _____ --- --- __________________ 2.41 ______ 54.0 ____ -- -- ____ 54.00  (T72)

_ 72 ____ Matt Tarrant ( --- ) __________ 2.19 _____ --- --- ___________________2.19 ______ 56.0 ____ -- -- ____  56.00 (74)

_ 73 ____ syed2878 (45.0) _____________ 1.98 _____ 0.12 (55) ______________ 2.10 ______ 57.0 ____ 50.1 ____ 53.55 (71)

_ 74 ____ pegg24 ( --- ) _______________  1.52 ______ --- --- _________________ 1.52 ______ 58.0 ____ -- -- _____ 58.00 (75)

_ 75 ____ chilly milly (64.0) _____________0.47 _____ 1.02 (50)  _____________ 1.49 ______ 71.1 ____ 31.1 ____ 51.10 (68)

_ 76 ____ Let It Snow! ( --- ) ____________ 1.04 ______ --- --- _________________ 1.04 ______ 60.3 ____ -- -- _____ 60.30 (77)

_ 77 ____ Captain Shortwave ( --- ) ____ 0.79 ______ --- --- _________________ 0.79 ______ 66.0 ____ -- -- _____ 66.00 (79)

_ 78 ____ Metwatch ( --- ) _____________ 0.66 ______ --- --- __________________ 0.66 ______ 68.0 ____ -- -- _____ 68.00 (80)

_ 79 ____ Neil N (55.0) _________________0.00 _____ 0.48 (53) _______________0.48  ______ 80.0 ____ 40.1 ____ 60.05 (76)

_ 80 ____ Connor Bailey Degnan ( --- ) _0.40 _____ --- --- ___________________0.40 ______ 75.0 ____ -- -- _____  75.00 (81)

_ 81 ____ Warwickshire Lad __________ 0.14 _____ -- -- _____________________ 0.14 ______ 78.0 ____ -- -- ____  78.00 (82)

_ 82 ____ Summer Shower (156.0) _____ --- --- ____ 0.00 (56) ______________ 0.00 ______--- --- _____ 60.9 ____ 60.90 (78)

_________________________________________

^ late one day, 0.3 penalty

** ranks move up one or two due to other forecasters' late penalties (but these are scored from a lower scoring level)

-------------------------------------------------------------------- // ---------------------------------------------------

_1.1 ___ 1991-2020 average 94.2 mm_______10.00 __ 9.48 _______ 19.48 _____ 1.6 ____ 0.9 ____ 1.25 (rank 0.3)

_1.2 ___ 1993-2022 average 95.4 mm_______ 9.85 ___ 9.58 _______ 19.43 _____ 3.5 ____ 0.3 ____ 1.90 (rank 0.5)

_1.4 ____1981-2010 average 93.0 mm_______ 9.81 ___ 9.06 _______ 18.87 _____ 4.6 ____ 2.1 ____ 3.35 (rank 0.8)

17.4____ consensus 99.5 mm ________________5.13 ___ 7.94 _______ 13.07 _____39.0 ____ 4.4 ____21.70 (rank 28.3)

===================================================

(the normals and consensus are given decimal value ranks to show where they fit into the forecaster ranks. The three normals have just slightly fewer points than first place summer8906, and have better average errors than all forecasters. Consensus is more moderately ranked (17th to 18th in points, 28th to 29th in avg err).

 

THESE SCORES WILL BE SUBJECT TO ADJUSTMENTS WHEN NEW ESTIMATES ARE AVAILABLE FOR JANUARY. 

 

 

Edited January 22, 2023 by Roger J Smith

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield down to 5.5C +0.9C above normal. Rainfall stuck at 84mm 112.9% of the monthly total. Likely to stay there until the months end.

Pity we can't stretch the cold days longer my 5C punt is looking a lot better now when it looked miles to low.

[Summer8906]

On 21/01/2023 at 10:14, Frigid said:

I agree, if you look back at July's over the past decade they've been varied and a lot more interesting. Can't say the same about January. Hot July's (2013, 2018, 2022) and quite cool ones (2015, 2020). At the peak of winter you'd expect some interest but alas it's been quite tame

Let's not wish an exceptionally mild January to happen anytime soon though!

I'm glad that this cold spell has prevented a silly mild January. It might help save the spring; extreme mild Januaries can lead to over-early spring flowering, ruining the actual spring. Flowering was really, really silly-early in both 2016 and 2020, though in 2016 we were saved by a cold March.

Now we just have to hope the first half of February won't be too mild.

And regarding this contest I rather hope my own estimate ends up being considerably too high by the month's end.

Edited January 22, 2023 by Summer8906

[Relativistic]

19 hours ago, SummerShower said:

Is it me or have most of January's figures increased by 0.1C on today's update?

 

 

Looks like it. The 17th has been adjusted upwards to -1.3°C, and our marginal subzero day on the 18th is no more, now showing 0.1°C.

[Summer Sun]

5.8c to the 21st

2.0c above the 61 to 90 average
1.3c above the 81 to 10 average

Edited January 22, 2023 by Summer Sun

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

Need an average of 2.7c for last 10 days to hit 4.8c!

Edited January 22, 2023 by prolongedSnowLover

[Frigid]

Today could be another sub-zero CET day.. many places hovering around freezing and the minima were quite low. Next 10 days looks cool/average. 

[North-Easterly Blast]

On 21/01/2023 at 10:23, Weather-history said:

I noticed a checkerboard pattern, a year or two back that since and including January 2011 that odd year Januarys were colder than even year Januarys, although it looks like it is going to be broken this year.

However, what just struck me is the temperature difference between consecutive Januarys, it has at least been  +/-1.0°C. Not since Januarys 2007 and 2008 has the CET been within 0.5°C of each other.

2008-09  -3.5

2009-10 -1.6

2010-11  +2.2

2011-12   +1.8

2012-13  -2.0

2013-14  +2.2

2014-15  -1.2

2015-16  +1.0

2016-17  -1.5

2017-18  +1.3

2018-19  -1.3

2019-20  +2.4

2020-21 -3.2

2021-22  +1.5

 

 

This odd year January looks unlikely to be colder than last year's even year January, but as you say, since 2007 / 2008 consecutive January CETs have not been within 0.5 of each other, but in my opinion there now looks to be a good chance that this January CET may end up very similar to last year's figure or just a touch above it, so this year it looks to be the case that consecutive January CETs are within 0.5 of each other for the first time since 2007 / 2008.  This month's CET could still dip under 5.0*C if the last few days of the month are cool enough.

Edited January 22, 2023 by North-Easterly Blast

[damianslaw]

6 hours ago, Summer8906 said:

Let's not wish an exceptionally mild January to happen anytime soon though!

I'm glad that this cold spell has prevented a silly mild January. It might help save the spring; extreme mild Januaries can lead to over-early spring flowering, ruining the actual spring. Flowering was really, really silly-early in both 2016 and 2020, though in 2016 we were saved by a cold March.

Now we just have to hope the first half of February won't be too mild.

And regarding this contest I rather hope my own estimate ends up being considerably too high by the month's end.

I spotted some daffodils in bloom in Congleton yesterday - surprised, but perhaps shouldn't be given the mild November which I think lulled alot of plants into a false early spring, the very mild 4 week period mid Dec to mid Jan also spurred growth on but thought the recent cold spell might have lowered soil temps. Its turned into quite a surprise decent cold spell this one.

Today very cold in CET zone, could be on 5.5 degrees tomorrow, a finish close to 5 degrees most probable, question is above or below?

 

[Daniel*]

4 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

I spotted some daffodils in bloom in Congleton yesterday - surprised, but perhaps shouldn't be given the mild November which I think lulled alot of plants into a false early spring, the very mild 4 week period mid Dec to mid Jan also spurred growth on but thought the recent cold spell might have lowered soil temps. Its turned into quite a surprise decent cold spell this one.

Today very cold in CET zone, could be on 5.5 degrees tomorrow, a finish close to 5 degrees most probable, question is above or below?

 

I can you min/max for two of the stations for today the 22nd. 

Pershore 

min: -7.9C

max: 2.3C 

mean daily temp -2.8C 

Rothamsted

Min: -6.1C 

Max: 4.1C 

mean daily temp -1C 

clearly another subzero day to add  

Edited January 22, 2023 by Daniel*