Possible windstorms Thursday/Friday 30th and Saturday 31st

[The PIT]

The GFS and UkMO show two possible windstorms on these days. Interestingly ECM and the local forecast have none of it. The second one more widespread and winds shown to be 60mph+. GFS has certainly being very poor this year in forecasting such events often removing altogether closer to the time.

 

 

[ChannelThunder]

Wow, what a nightmare for forecasters at this stage. Various solutions and timings on show from all of the main models. 

[ANYWEATHER]

2 hours ago, The PIT said:

The GFS and UkMO show two possible windstorms on these days. Interestingly ECM and the local forecast have none of it. The second one more widespread and winds shown to be 60mph+. GFS has certainly being very poor this year in forecasting such events often removing altogether closer to the time.

 

 

To be honest , I would argue that the Gfs has been pretty good in modeling wind storms, Februarys wind storm comes to mind...but yes it's had its very bad days along with all the other models....but looks potentially lively by the end of the week...

[The PIT]

6 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:

To be honest , I would argue that the Gfs has been pretty good in modeling wind storms, Februarys wind storm comes to mind...but yes it's had its very bad days along with all the other models....but looks potentially lively by the end of the week...

It's modelled quite a few since Autumn and all have been quickly dumped by the next run. At the moment I would say about 1 in 10 chance in coming off.

[The PIT]

Well the second storm has been shunted south but now gives a chance of some snow instead.

[ANYWEATHER]

Still looks potentially stormy by Friday, may need to batten down the hatches

[The PIT]

Friday still there but moderated down a little Saturdays totally gone while we have another possible one Sunday.  Friday will probably be just a been a run of the mill breezy  day by tomorrow evening more likely than not. Whether Sundays is there or not is another question. Locally forecast having none of it still though.

Edited December 27, 2022 by The PIT

[The PIT]

As expected not much left by this evenings run. A brief stormy spell for the irish sea and northern England and the grinder has been taken to Sundays storm totalling removing it to a slack system. expected further downgrades to what's left.  Shows how much work is still needed too improve modelling even at short time spans. GFS is very poor and 90% of storms getting massively down grounded  even within T69 time period.