Model Output Discussion - New Year and Beyond

[BlueHedgehog074]

Greetings all. A new thread for the New Year. A year to hopefully bring a fresh new start with weather to excite us all.  

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For moans, ramps and general chat about the Winter, please feel free to use this thread here: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/98050-winter-2022-moans-ramps-chat/
 

Just a quick little summary of the models - it looks like the Atlantic dominated weather will continue. A general flow from the West. High Pressure generally across the South and South-East and Low Pressure dominating to the North-West of the UK.

This bringing further spells of rain and showers to places, particularly across North-Western areas, while Southern areas could see bit more in the way of drier weather at times, especially from little ridges of High Pressure that cross Eastwards through the UK. Maybe a little more in the way of wider-spread settled weather into Friday next week with a little Atlantic ridge shifting East over large portion of the UK. Though Monday this week could be pretty dry as well:

 

Mixture of cooler and milder periods with the alternating South-West to North-West flows. Northern areas seeing the best of the chilliest conditions were some of the rain and showers likely to be wintry over higher ground at times. 

The models, especially the 06Z GFS, do tease with more pronounced chillier weather from the North-West, and even North, later into the period which may heighten the risk of more widespread wintry weather. And maybe not even just for the Northern hills and high ground either!

But… can it happen?

Or are models such as the GFS over doing the amplification and eagerness to drop Low Pressure into Europe? Something for the cold weather enthusiasts to have excitement about. 

Thanks guys and please continue your discussions  

I would also like to wish you a great New Year - I hope it’s a blessed and joyful one for you all.

 

Previous thread: 

 

[E17boy]

Some headlines today, no surprise it’s James Madden again but for once he might hit the right bracket 

[RhHh]

1 minute ago, E17boy said:

Some headlines today, no surprise it’s James Madden again but for once he might hit the right bracket 

It would certainly be a first!

[Derecho]

A very slight increase in the Scandi High signal on day 7 of the EC 06z ensembles. Here are some of the more interesting members:

[Lukesluckybunch]

5 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

A very slight increase in the Scandi High signal on day 7 of the EC 06z ensembles. Here are some of the more interesting members:

25 looks about best in my opinion...the high likely to curve around into a northeastward direction

[Lukesluckybunch]

icon has the much colder air to the east at 144..but the uk is marginally milder at the same time then the 6z..sounds about right haha

[Derecho]

4 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

25 looks about best in my opinion...the high likely to curve around into a northeastward direction

I'd like to go down the path of P44, good cold pool there if an undercut occurs.

Still clutching at straws here but who knows, if we can get a block strong enough to hold off a low from the west it'll stop the cold to our east getting pushed away and lead to something further down the line.

[Lukesluckybunch]

2 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

I'd like to go down the path of P44, good cold pool there if an undercut occurs.

Still clutching at straws here but who knows, if we can get a block strong enough to hold off a low from the west it'll stop the cold to our east getting pushed away and lead to something further down the line.

the icon looks well out of sorts compared to this!

[fellmike]

43 minutes ago, RhHh said:

It would certainly be a first!

Law of averages say he will be correct one day

[northwestsnow]

Exeter not remotely interested in cold weather.

Lots of wind and rain in the update ,let's see where the 12z runs take us...

[Methuselah]

9 minutes ago, fellmike said:

Law of averages say he will be correct one day

The Law of Averages also suggests that most of us will be dead by then?

Edited December 31, 2022 by Ed Stone

[Weather of Mass Disruption]

53 minutes ago, RhHh said:

It would certainly be a first!

Even a stopped clock tells the correct time twice a day! 

[Derecho]

8 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Exeter not remotely interested in cold weather.

Lots of wind and rain in the update ,let's see where the 12z runs take us...

That increases my confidence of a cold spell then.

[northwestsnow]

Just now, Quicksilver1989 said:

That increases my confidence of a cold spell then.

Hope so

[Battleground Snow]

2 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

That increases my confidence of a cold spell then.

Yeh me too, it won't change until they see ec46 on monday

[Derecho]

4 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

Yeh me too, it won't change until they see ec46 on monday

With these updates I think they are just a quick write up based on an operational run in the shorter term and ensemble means for the long term. They will have the longer range MOGREPS to look at. They seem to go for one scenario unless its closer range and there are big implications.

I wouldn't read too much into the longer term text. From my time in working in weather forecasting it is deliberately vague and generic as forecasting at that range is difficult. I'd only write something different if all the ensembles were going for a big storm or there was a good consensus on a major cold spell. 

Even at longer timescales and a good ens signal most of the time I'd just write 'much colder conditions from the east cannot be ruled out'. When writing to clients the uncertainties have bigger implications compared to a weather forum so text is likely to be often underwhelming and just a rough guide from the model output.  

Edited December 31, 2022 by Quicksilver1989

[Battleground Snow]

Ukmo 120.

Low sliding nicely, decent pressure to the north 

[Rain All Night]

1 minute ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

With these updates I think they are just a quick write up based on an operational run in the shorter term and ensemble means for the long term. They will have the longer range MOGREPS to look at. They seem to go for one scenario unless its closer range and there are big implications.

I wouldn't read too much into the longer term text.

There are longer-range MOGREPS? 

[MJB]

3 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

With these updates I think they are just a quick write up based on an operational run in the shorter term and ensemble means for the long term. They will have the longer range MOGREPS to look at. They seem to go for one scenario unless its closer range and there are big implications.

I wouldn't read too much into the longer term text.

They also won't update after each run , they will wait for trends across many models before slightly changing the wording .

[Derecho]

2 minutes ago, RainAllNight said:

There are longer-range MOGREPS? 

Well we can see the MOGREPS up to 10 days on TWO but the output will likely go on much longer, there is data from the EC and UKMO that not all the public will have access to. I didn't work at the Met Office itself though so wouldn't know for sure.

[fellmike]

17 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

The Law of Averages also suggests that most of us will be dead by then?

Thats very true

[northwestsnow]

8 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

Ukmo 120.

Low sliding nicely, decent pressure to the north 

Looks to be too much energy being spewed from that lobe to the NW to me ..

144

Edited December 31, 2022 by northwestsnow

[E17boy]

𝑩𝑬𝑺𝑻 𝑴𝑬𝑺𝑺𝑨𝑮𝑬 𝑭𝑶𝑹 𝑻𝑯𝑬 𝒀𝑬𝑨𝑹!!

 

𝑩𝒐𝒂𝒓𝒅𝒊𝒏𝒈 𝒐𝒏 𝑭𝒍𝒊𝒈𝒉𝒕  2023  has been 𝒂𝒏𝒏𝒐𝒖𝒏𝒄𝒆𝒅....... 

 

𝒀𝒐𝒖𝒓 𝒍𝒖𝒈𝒈𝒂𝒈𝒆 𝒔𝒉𝒐𝒖𝒍𝒅 𝒐𝒏𝒍𝒚 𝒄𝒐𝒏𝒕𝒂𝒊𝒏 𝒕𝒉𝒆 𝒃𝒆𝒔𝒕 𝒔𝒐𝒖𝒗𝒆𝒏𝒊𝒓𝒔 𝒇𝒓𝒐𝒎 2022..... 𝑻𝒉𝒆 𝒃𝒂𝒅 𝒂𝒏𝒅 𝒔𝒂𝒅𝒎𝒐𝒎𝒆𝒏𝒕𝒔 𝒔𝒉𝒐𝒖𝒍𝒅 𝒃𝒆 𝒍𝒆𝒇𝒕 𝒊𝒏 𝒕𝒉𝒆 𝒈𝒂𝒓𝒃𝒂𝒈𝒆....... 

 

𝑻𝒉𝒆 𝒅𝒖𝒓𝒂𝒕𝒊𝒐𝒏 𝒐𝒇 𝒕𝒉𝒆 𝒇𝒍𝒊𝒈𝒉𝒕 𝒘𝒊𝒍𝒍 𝒃𝒆 12 𝒎𝒐𝒏𝒕𝒉𝒔. 𝑺𝒐, 𝒕𝒊𝒈𝒉𝒕𝒆𝒏 𝒚𝒐𝒖𝒓 𝒔𝒆𝒂𝒕 𝒃𝒆𝒍𝒕!!

 

𝑻𝒉𝒆 𝒏𝒆𝒙𝒕 𝒔𝒕𝒐𝒑-𝒐𝒗𝒆𝒓𝒔 𝒘𝒊𝒍𝒍 𝒃𝒆 :𝑯𝒆𝒂𝒍𝒕𝒉, 𝑳𝒐𝒗𝒆, 𝑱𝒐𝒚, 𝑯𝒂𝒓𝒎𝒐𝒏𝒚, 𝒘𝒆𝒍𝒍-𝒃𝒆𝒊𝒏𝒈 𝒂𝒏𝒅 𝑷𝒆𝒂𝒄𝒆. 𝑻𝒉𝒆𝒄𝒂𝒑𝒕𝒂𝒊𝒏 𝒐𝒇𝒇𝒆𝒓𝒔 𝒚𝒐𝒖 𝒕𝒉𝒆 𝒇𝒐𝒍𝒍𝒐𝒘𝒊𝒏𝒈 𝒎𝒆𝒏𝒖 𝒘𝒉𝒊𝒄𝒉 𝒘𝒊𝒍𝒍 𝒃𝒆 𝒔𝒆𝒓𝒗𝒆𝒅 𝒅𝒖𝒓𝒊𝒏𝒈 𝒕𝒉𝒆 𝒇𝒍𝒊𝒈𝒉𝒕....... 

𝑨 𝑪𝒐𝒄𝒌𝒕𝒂𝒊𝒍 𝒐𝒇 𝑭𝒓𝒊𝒆𝒏𝒅𝒔𝒉𝒊𝒑 

𝑨 𝑺𝒖𝒑𝒓𝒆𝒎𝒆 𝒐𝒇 𝑯𝒆𝒂𝒍𝒕𝒉 

𝑨 𝑮𝒓𝒂𝒕𝒊𝒏 𝒐𝒇 𝑷𝒓𝒐𝒔𝒑𝒆𝒓𝒊𝒕𝒚 

𝑨 𝑩𝒐𝒘𝒍 𝒐𝒇 𝑬𝒙𝒄𝒆𝒍𝒍𝒆𝒏𝒕 𝑵𝒆𝒘𝒔

𝑨 𝒔𝒂𝒍𝒂𝒅 𝒐𝒇 𝑺𝒖𝒄𝒄𝒆𝒔𝒔 

𝑨 𝑪𝒂𝒌𝒆 𝒐𝒇 𝑯𝒂𝒑𝒑𝒊𝒏𝒆𝒔𝒔 

𝑨𝒍𝒍 𝒂𝒄𝒄𝒐𝒎𝒑𝒂𝒏𝒊𝒆𝒅 𝒃𝒚 𝒃𝒖𝒓𝒔𝒕𝒔 𝒐𝒇 𝒍𝒂𝒖𝒈𝒉𝒕𝒆𝒓...... 

 

𝑾𝒊𝒔𝒉𝒊𝒏𝒈 𝒚𝒐𝒖 𝒂𝒏𝒅 𝒚𝒐𝒖𝒓 𝒇𝒂𝒎𝒊𝒍𝒚 𝒂𝒏 𝒆𝒏𝒋𝒐𝒚𝒂𝒃𝒍𝒆 𝒕𝒓𝒊𝒑 𝒐𝒏 𝒃𝒐𝒂𝒓𝒅 𝒐𝒇 𝒇𝒍𝒊𝒈𝒉𝒕 2023.....

[Mike Poole]

GFS has the wedge of heights stronger on this run than the 6z, this has really developed at quite short range today, here T144 v 6z T150:

[Rob 79812010]

Looks like December will end up being officially a cold month. Probs 1.2 below average with mean temp 3.4. Think coldest since 2010! Mild first week of Jan and then lots to play for going further into winter by the looks of the models. I still think the Atlantic will quieten down again as we've seen through the year. Doesn't necessarily mean cold but better chances than normal. Here's hoping!