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Model Output Discussion - New Year and Beyond


Message added by Paul,

Please keep your posts to discussing the model output in this thread, and for more general winter weather chat please use the winter chat, moans and ramps thread.

The model highlights thread is also available for a more concise view of the model discussions.ย 

Be kind -- Stay on topic -- Share your knowledge -- Be polite -- Be honest -- Be tolerant -- Be family-friendly

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Posted
  • Location: Gatwick
  • Location: Gatwick
1 minute ago, E17boy said:

Could contain: Publication, Person, Glove, Clothing, Shop, Hat, Advertisement, Text, Face, PosterCould contain: Glove, Person, Man, Adult, Male, Car, Hat, Deer, Bicycle, Advertisement

Some headlines today, no surprise itโ€™s James Madden again but for once he might hit the right bracketย 

It would certainly be a first!

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Posted
  • Location: Bicester
  • Location: Bicester
5 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

A very slight increase in the Scandi High signal on day 7 of the EC 06z ensembles. Here are some of the more interesting members:

Could contain: Graphics, Art, Nature, Outdoors, Plot, Chart, Modern ArtCould contain: Plot, Chart, Sea, Outdoors, Nature, Water, Map, Atlas, Diagram

Could contain: Nature, Outdoors, Plot, ChartCould contain: Plot, Chart, Sea, Outdoors, Nature, Water, Map, Land, Atlas, Diagram

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25 looks about best in my opinion...the high likely to curve around into a northeastward direction

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Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull
4 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

25 looks about best in my opinion...the high likely to curve around into a northeastward direction

I'd like to go down the path of P44, good cold pool there if an undercut occurs.

Still clutching at straws here but who knows, if we can get a block strong enough to hold off a low from the west it'll stop the cold to our east getting pushed away and lead to something further down the line.

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Posted
  • Location: Bicester
  • Location: Bicester
2 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

I'd like to go down the path of P44, good cold pool there if an undercut occurs.

Still clutching at straws here but who knows, if we can get a block strong enough to hold off a low from the west it'll stop the cold to our east getting pushed away and lead to something further down the line.

the icon looks well out of sorts compared to this!

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
9 minutes ago, fellmike said:

Law of averages say he will be correct one day

The Law of Averages also suggests that most of us will be dead by then?๐Ÿ‘

Edited by Ed Stone
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Posted
  • Location: Hucknall, Nottingham 100m (328ft) ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Blizzards, Hoarfrost, Frost and Extremes
  • Location: Hucknall, Nottingham 100m (328ft) ASL
53 minutes ago, RhHh said:

It would certainly be a first!

Even a stopped clock tells the correct time twice a day!ย ๐Ÿ™‚

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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Warm and dry, or very cold. See my profile for model trivia
  • Location: Dorset
1 minute ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

With these updates I think they are just a quick write up based on an operational run in the shorter term and ensemble means for the long term. They will have the longer range MOGREPS to look at. They seem to go for one scenario unless its closer range and there are big implications.

I wouldn't read too much into the longer term text.

There are longer-range MOGREPS?ย ๐Ÿ˜ฎ

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Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Weather Preferences: Deep Deep Snow causing chaos
  • Location: Banbury
3 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

With these updates I think they are just a quick write up based on an operational run in the shorter term and ensemble means for the long term. They will have the longer range MOGREPS to look at. They seem to go for one scenario unless its closer range and there are big implications.

I wouldn't read too much into the longer term text.

They also won't update after each run , they will wait for trends across many models before slightly changing the wording .

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Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull
2 minutes ago, RainAllNight said:

There are longer-range MOGREPS?ย ๐Ÿ˜ฎ

Well we can see the MOGREPS up to 10 days on TWO but the output will likely go on much longer, there is data from the EC and UKMO that not all the public will have access to. I didn't work at the Met Office itself though so wouldn't know for sure.

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
8 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

Ukmo 120๐Ÿ‘€.

Low sliding nicely, decent pressure to the northย 

UN120-21 (30).gif

Looks to be too much energy being spewed from that lobe to the NW to me ..

144

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๐‘ฉ๐‘ฌ๐‘บ๐‘ปย ๐‘ด๐‘ฌ๐‘บ๐‘บ๐‘จ๐‘ฎ๐‘ฌย ๐‘ญ๐‘ถ๐‘นย ๐‘ป๐‘ฏ๐‘ฌย ๐’€๐‘ฌ๐‘จ๐‘น!!

ย 

๐‘ฉ๐’๐’‚๐’“๐’…๐’Š๐’๐’ˆย ๐’๐’ย ๐‘ญ๐’๐’Š๐’ˆ๐’‰๐’•ย โœˆ๏ธย 2023 ย has been ๐’‚๐’๐’๐’๐’–๐’๐’„๐’†๐’….......ย 

ย 

๐’€๐’๐’–๐’“ย ๐’๐’–๐’ˆ๐’ˆ๐’‚๐’ˆ๐’†ย ๐’”๐’‰๐’๐’–๐’๐’…ย ๐’๐’๐’๐’šย ๐’„๐’๐’๐’•๐’‚๐’Š๐’ย ๐’•๐’‰๐’†ย ๐’ƒ๐’†๐’”๐’•ย ๐’”๐’๐’–๐’—๐’†๐’๐’Š๐’“๐’”ย ๐’‡๐’“๐’๐’Žย 2022.....ย ๐‘ป๐’‰๐’†ย ๐’ƒ๐’‚๐’…ย ๐’‚๐’๐’…ย ๐’”๐’‚๐’…๐’Ž๐’๐’Ž๐’†๐’๐’•๐’”ย ๐’”๐’‰๐’๐’–๐’๐’…ย ๐’ƒ๐’†ย ๐’๐’†๐’‡๐’•ย ๐’Š๐’ย ๐’•๐’‰๐’†ย ๐’ˆ๐’‚๐’“๐’ƒ๐’‚๐’ˆ๐’†.......ย 

ย 

๐‘ป๐’‰๐’†ย ๐’…๐’–๐’“๐’‚๐’•๐’Š๐’๐’ย ๐’๐’‡ย ๐’•๐’‰๐’†ย ๐’‡๐’๐’Š๐’ˆ๐’‰๐’•ย ๐’˜๐’Š๐’๐’ย ๐’ƒ๐’†ย 12ย ๐’Ž๐’๐’๐’•๐’‰๐’”.ย ๐‘บ๐’,ย ๐’•๐’Š๐’ˆ๐’‰๐’•๐’†๐’ย ๐’š๐’๐’–๐’“ย ๐’”๐’†๐’‚๐’•ย ๐’ƒ๐’†๐’๐’•!!

ย 

๐‘ป๐’‰๐’†ย ๐’๐’†๐’™๐’•ย ๐’”๐’•๐’๐’‘-๐’๐’—๐’†๐’“๐’”ย ๐’˜๐’Š๐’๐’ย ๐’ƒ๐’†ย :๐‘ฏ๐’†๐’‚๐’๐’•๐’‰,ย ๐‘ณ๐’๐’—๐’†,ย ๐‘ฑ๐’๐’š,ย ๐‘ฏ๐’‚๐’“๐’Ž๐’๐’๐’š,ย ๐’˜๐’†๐’๐’-๐’ƒ๐’†๐’Š๐’๐’ˆย ๐’‚๐’๐’…ย ๐‘ท๐’†๐’‚๐’„๐’†.ย ๐‘ป๐’‰๐’†๐’„๐’‚๐’‘๐’•๐’‚๐’Š๐’ย ๐’๐’‡๐’‡๐’†๐’“๐’”ย ๐’š๐’๐’–ย ๐’•๐’‰๐’†ย ๐’‡๐’๐’๐’๐’๐’˜๐’Š๐’๐’ˆย ๐’Ž๐’†๐’๐’–ย ๐’˜๐’‰๐’Š๐’„๐’‰ย ๐’˜๐’Š๐’๐’ย ๐’ƒ๐’†ย ๐’”๐’†๐’“๐’—๐’†๐’…ย ๐’…๐’–๐’“๐’Š๐’๐’ˆย ๐’•๐’‰๐’†ย ๐’‡๐’๐’Š๐’ˆ๐’‰๐’•.......ย 

๐‘จย ๐‘ช๐’๐’„๐’Œ๐’•๐’‚๐’Š๐’ย ๐’๐’‡ย ๐‘ญ๐’“๐’Š๐’†๐’๐’…๐’”๐’‰๐’Š๐’‘ย 

๐‘จย ๐‘บ๐’–๐’‘๐’“๐’†๐’Ž๐’†ย ๐’๐’‡ย ๐‘ฏ๐’†๐’‚๐’๐’•๐’‰ย 

๐‘จย ๐‘ฎ๐’“๐’‚๐’•๐’Š๐’ย ๐’๐’‡ย ๐‘ท๐’“๐’๐’”๐’‘๐’†๐’“๐’Š๐’•๐’šย 

๐‘จย ๐‘ฉ๐’๐’˜๐’ย ๐’๐’‡ย ๐‘ฌ๐’™๐’„๐’†๐’๐’๐’†๐’๐’•ย ๐‘ต๐’†๐’˜๐’”

๐‘จย ๐’”๐’‚๐’๐’‚๐’…ย ๐’๐’‡ย ๐‘บ๐’–๐’„๐’„๐’†๐’”๐’”ย 

๐‘จย ๐‘ช๐’‚๐’Œ๐’†ย ๐’๐’‡ย ๐‘ฏ๐’‚๐’‘๐’‘๐’Š๐’๐’†๐’”๐’”ย 

๐‘จ๐’๐’ย ๐’‚๐’„๐’„๐’๐’Ž๐’‘๐’‚๐’๐’Š๐’†๐’…ย ๐’ƒ๐’šย ๐’ƒ๐’–๐’“๐’”๐’•๐’”ย ๐’๐’‡ย ๐’๐’‚๐’–๐’ˆ๐’‰๐’•๐’†๐’“......ย 

ย 

๐‘พ๐’Š๐’”๐’‰๐’Š๐’๐’ˆย ๐’š๐’๐’–ย ๐’‚๐’๐’…ย ๐’š๐’๐’–๐’“ย ๐’‡๐’‚๐’Ž๐’Š๐’๐’šย ๐’‚๐’ย ๐’†๐’๐’‹๐’๐’š๐’‚๐’ƒ๐’๐’†ย ๐’•๐’“๐’Š๐’‘ย ๐’๐’ย ๐’ƒ๐’๐’‚๐’“๐’…ย ๐’๐’‡ย ๐’‡๐’๐’Š๐’ˆ๐’‰๐’•ย 2023.....

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

GFS has the wedge of heights stronger on this run than the 6z, this has really developed at quite short range today, here T144 v 6z T150:

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester

Looks like December will end up being officially a cold month. Probs 1.2 below average with mean temp 3.4. Think coldest since 2010! Mild first week of Jan and then lots to play for going further into winter by the looks of the models. I still think the Atlantic will quieten down again as we've seen through the year. Doesn't necessarily mean cold but better chances than normal. Here's hoping!๐Ÿคž

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