Model Output Discussion - New Year and Beyond

[Kasim Awan]

1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

The problem with those bloated Russian highs is they rarely deliver . I think the last one I can remember was that exceptional spell in February 2012. I was living in sw France then near Lourdes and the cold was something else.  The Garonne river further north started to freeze over . And I’m sure in your location they were able to skate on the canals .

 

Big Russian high does not offer any interest imo it is very common in a positive NAO setup. It is synoptically insignificant relative to the Atlantic pressure systems in this setup.

Edited January 1, 2023 by Kasim Awan

[mountain shadow]

55 minutes ago, Don said:

It's all down to the Euro slug!!

The Euro high is now a virtual permanent feature due to the expansion of the sub tropical high pressure belt due to global warming.

Only the most severe of teleconnections can overide it.

 

[Kasim Awan]

1 minute ago, mountain shadow said:

The Euro high is now a virtual permanent feature due to the expansion of the sub tropical high pressure belt due to global warming.

Only the most severe of teleconnections can overide it.

 

Correct and this is the reason why our winter CET has warmed by near 2C in the last 50 years compared to the global avg temp rise of 0.7C. It's a simple mechanism that is neglected by many when producing prognosis of telleconnections and their implications.

[January Snowstorm]

Just a few observations from me,

- I remember Crewe cold saying the week before Christmas that he had seen enough to write off the next 3/4 weeks. How right he was!!

- There is a trend to erode heights over Southern Europe by day 9/10. This is significant as an increasing Southerly jet could well be the way out of this hole. (And let's face it, it is a hole)

- There is an undeniable trend the last 10 years to raise heights to our North in early Winter (pre Christmas) Likely caused by global warming this in turn is leading to a delayed zonal onslaught around Xmas time/early Jan. FACT over the last 10 years.

- Strat warming for one reason or another are becoming much more common. For me one happening this year is very likely and will shape the final third of Winter!

I'm nearly 50 and I have seen more snow in the last decade than the previous four! So for the younger members don't lose the faith global warming is here and and I'm in the camp that it will lead to colder winters for Ireland/UK

 

 

[tight isobar]

16 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The ECM builds a strong Russian high just as the limpet Euro slug was heading nw and the likely scenario is it sticks troughing over the UK and stops an eastwards progression of that when more amplitude upstream was likely to develop ! Yuk did someone run over a black cat ! 

Honestly- it’s the lucky 15 bet.. all the evens rump home.. and the 50-1 shot  is leading but dismounts the jockey at the last fence!!..- we need a reality check on outer dynamics , and zone into water local Synoptics firstly- and second jet alignment!.. and tbh that’s it in such situations. The jet WILL ultimately nearly always split /separate/ dip/ arc around our domain! - I’m all for outer sourcing/ telecons, but let’s have it right- how often are they are reliable/ fruition out for the uk!?? ... even the upper layers are probably the only semi reliable dynamics! Yet even those displace/ or evolve to a “nearly plot “!!.. Anyway as again we have a notable northern hemisphere shape! - and one that if evolves into a possible drip down for NW Europe- it’ll land timely And for wanting..... I’m going ya- ole fashioned, and day to day ops-to ens... it’s an easy life that way!

[Cold Winter Night]

6 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The problem with those bloated Russian highs is they rarely deliver . I think the last one I can remember was that exceptional spell in February 2012. I was living in sw France then near Lourdes and the cold was something else.  The Garonne river further north started to freeze over . And I’m sure in your location they were able to skate on the canals .

 

Correct. The thing is, when they do deliver, they really do.
That February 2012 period was an exceptional cold spell in Holland. I skated a lot on the canals and lakes those two weeks.

The models are still toying with different solutions, and some are really closer to being good (in the long run, not immediately) than most think. It can be a fine line sometimes.
It's clear that things between 120h-240h are not at all figured out yet, and I like those low heights moving through Europe.

[zubzero]

2 hours ago, Tim Bland said:

Not a particularly cold one but it’s an easterly of sorts …

A few positive signs from that, even though the vortex of doom is raging away. Is heights finally falling to the south and things settling down with frost 'n' fog returning.

[Catacol]

1 hour ago, tight isobar said:

Trolly through - mountain torque syncs-the rolling plots evade anything uk bound- we could have record breaking HLB- with eye watering height pressure- And still sit in the shovel plots!!!!!

We need amplification or downwelling reversal to bring cold to our small island at the Eastern edge of the Atlantic. Agree it is frustrating when the Euro High overrides other forcing in our sector. Doesnt make teleconnections irrelevant - just means that probably we need to understand better what promotes that Euro anomaly. Even the models did an about face.

I see that Germany broke a temperature record yesterday followed by a huge record break in Warsaw today. 18.9 degrees. Others arguably will suffer much more from the current direction of travel.

 

[Kentspur]

29 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

The Euro high is now a virtual permanent feature due to the expansion of the sub tropical high pressure belt due to global warming.

Only the most severe of teleconnections can overide it.

 

Hopefully it gets so inflated and further north in a few years it becomes a scandi- Griceland permanent high instead lol

[Frosty.]

P17 got better and better....wow, I wanna frame it and stick it on my wall forever! ️….yes, it was just a dream, right Pam?!

 

[mountsbaysnow]

5 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

P17 got better and better....wow, I wanna frame it and stick it on my wall forever! ️….yes, it was just a dream, right Pam?!

 

At least it wasn't a wet dream.. So to speak  

[syed2878]

1 hour ago, tight isobar said:

Most certainly! And Angular momentum/ mjo orbital plots etc etc mean jack all to our island!! Here’s a perfect snapshot - example of simple consequence!!

 An excellent post. If I may say all these telly connections doesn’t mean Jack in our island when we have the Atlantic on our doorstep.

[Catacol]

27 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

Correct and this is the reason why our winter CET has warmed by near 2C in the last 50 years compared to the global avg temp rise of 0.7C. It's a simple mechanism that is neglected by many when producing prognosis of telleconnections and their implications.

Shooting from the hip at those who try and make sense of what drives our weather is probably not the way to go. Nobody I have seen try and come up with an analysis ignores the reality of Hadley Cell movement and the increasing dominance of the sub tropical high pressure belt. It is a known context. And clearly there is more we need to do to try and comprehend what impacts the Euro High specifically. For many years data and forecasting has looked almost entirely at the Pacific- and for good reason. The Pacific drives the Rossby Wave pattern that most obviously impacts the major centres of Western population namely the US and Europe. But little to no time is given analysing what is happening over the Atlantic or perhaps over the African continent. Do research papers exist that target the Euro High? I haven't seen any. Perhaps we will start to see some soon.

Those who use teleconnections and who you identify as "ignoring" the Euro High context presumably also include NWP output itself which also got it wrong. As did the Met Office. Sometimes a forecast is a bust because it is a bust - because we are yet to know enough to forecast accurately beyond 5 days.

But to try is better than not to try. There are no prizes for raising the white flag and having a chip at those who got it wrong.

[SqueakheartLW]

Happy to see that we have a few more cold charts to offer today compared with yesterday. I could only source 5 yesterday between all 4 most recent GFS runs as well as 2 GEM runs. Lets see how many I can offer today. I have arranged these in date order from nearest to furthest away and if there's a tie on the day and date of the charts the colder chart is put after the less cold one by 850hpa temps.

As there are quite a few to choose from I have decided to only show the charts for those with -10C 850hpa temps or lower for my location but have listed all of the cold options I have found if you wish to look at the other ones too.

GFS and GEM in last 24 hours

01/01/2023 GFS 00z P24          +138h Fri Jan 6th 18:00           850hpa temp = -9.3C

01/01/2023 GFS 00z P23          +180h Sun Jan 8th 12:00         850hpa temp = -10.9C

Bring on the ...... BEST FROM THE WEST. A nice snow making machine for those areas that usually miss out on the most snow in cold setups.

01/01/2023 GFS 06z P23          +252h Wed Jan 11th 18:00      850hpa temp = -8.7C

01/01/2023 GEM 00z P18        +270h Thu Jan 12th 06:00        850hpa temp = -8.9C

01/01/2023 GFS 00z P30          +276h Thu Jan 12th 12:00        850hpa temp = -9.5C

01/01/2023 GFS 00z P20          +288h Fri Jan 13th 00:00          850hpa temp = -9.7C

01/01/2023 GEM 00z P01         +300h Fri Jan 13th 12:00          850hpa temp = -9.4C

01/01/2023 GFS 00z P21          +300h Fri Jan 13th 12:00          850hpa temp = -10.7C

A rather cold Arctic flow here with a decent shot at snow showers, especially in the east and north.

01/01/2023 GFS 12z P18          +306h Sat Jan 14th 06:00          850hpa temp = -8.1C

01/01/2023 GFS 00z P16          +324h Sat Jan 14th 12:00          850hpa temp = -8.8C

01/01/2023 GFS 12z P21          +318h Sat Jan 14th 18:00          850hpa temp = -9.4C

01/01/2023 GEM 00z P08        +348h Sun Jan 15th 12:00          850hpa temp = -7.8C

01/01/2023 GFS 06z P15          +342h Sun Jan 15th 12:00          850hpa temp = -8.3C

01/01/2023 GFS 06z P03          +342h Sun Jan 15th 12:00          850hpa temp = -10.7C

England in particular should do well off this setup for snow, especially further east. Cold and frosty for Scotland and N Ireland here.

01/01/2023 GFS 00z P17          +354h Sun Jan 15th 18:00          850hpa temp = -9.9C

31/12/2022 GFS 18z P16          +360h Sun Jan 15th 18:00          850hpa temp = -10.6C

A nice straight Arctic blast here with cold uppers. Snow most likely near coasts and in Scotland. Could be good for other areas in exposure too.

01/01/2023 GFS 00z P02          +354h Sun Jan 15th 18:00          850hpa temp = -10.8C

Cold and dry the order of the day here and most likely quite severe frosts at night under those cold uppers.

01/01/2023 GEM 12z P15        +348h Mon Jan 16th 00:00         850hpa temp = -9.1C

01/01/2023 GFS 06z P05          +360h Mon Jan 16th 06:00         850hpa temp = -13.0C

A beasterly of sorts here with uppers plenty cold enough for snow and with colder air waiting both further east and north then this one could evolve into something with deeper cold if we could see far enough ahead.

01/01/2023 GEM 00z P17        +378h Mon Jan 16th 18:00         850hpa temp = -8.5C

01/01/2023 GFS 12z Op           +366h Mon Jan 16th 18:00         850hpa temp = -8.6C

31/12/2022 GFS 18z P26          +384h Mon Jan 16th 18:00         850hpa temp = -8.7C

31/12/2022 GFS 18z P01          +384h Mon Jan 16th 18:00         850hpa temp = -9.9C

01/01/2023 GEM 00z P13         +384h Tue Jan 17th 00:00          850hpa temp = -7.7C

01/01/2023 GFS 00z P19          +384h Tue Jan 17th 00:00          850hpa temp = -8.9C

01/01/2023 GFS 12z P09          +372h Tue Jan 17th 00:00          850hpa temp = -9.9C

01/01/2023 GFS 00z P12          +384h Tue Jan 17th 00:00          850hpa temp = -10.3C

The BEAST FROM THE EAST is waiting to be UNLEASHED here. As this is a +384h chart then we can't see what happens next but I have a pretty good guess that the BEAST IS COMETH !!!

01/01/2023 GFS 06z P28          +384h Tue Jan 17th 06:00          850hpa temp = -9.1C

01/01/2023 GFS 06z P14          +384h Tue Jan 17th 06:00          850hpa temp = -12.2C

Another potential BEAST FROM THE EAST here too but with less strong winds. Could be equally as good at dumping snow as the other example above with troughs waiting to push in from the east.

01/01/2023 GFS 12z P17          +384h Tue Jan 17th 12:00          850hpa temp = -13.5C

The last and by no means least we have this BEASTERLY to finish off with. Looks like a snow making heaven chart this one does. That tight pressure gradient with those cold uppers and low pressure close by.

[tight isobar]

6 minutes ago, Catacol said:

We need amplification or downwelling reversal to bring cold to our small island at the Eastern edge of the Atlantic. Agree it is frustrating when the Euro High overrides other forcing in our sector. Doesnt make teleconnections irrelevant - just means that probably we need to understand better what promotes that Euro anomaly. Even the models did an about face.

I see that Germany broke a temperature record yesterday followed by a huge record break in Warsaw today. 18.9 degrees. Others arguably will suffer much more from the current direction of travel.

 

Yeah crazy temps in mainland Europe!.. I will never discount the outer sigs/ telecons- However the emphasis is fraught- especially with SSW- to which we need calculating factors to impact down welling/ dripping of lucky proportion!- it’s not hard to note- that without nil impactual tropospheric/ stratospheric sync- the USA (even down to drop state level)- can And do get drag of polar vortex spilling- because of landmass fact... lots of people assume/ say we need all the dices to roll ona 6”- yet for me.. we need blind rolling and confusion! Because that’s frankly where our best winter shots come- out of what looks like nothing- and I’ll reiterate, ALL outcomes “ ultimately come from raw modelling “- and usually, basic plots! You can keep updating technology - and have ultimately another problem- rather than resolve! A mans bamboo stick- can sometimes catch bigger fish than ya carbon stretch- with bite alarms that never really ring!!! - being a mid/ top latitude island- should be the scoop for forecast/ deciphering-?! We are a- climate to ourselves- uniquely.. !

[Wold Topper]

12 minutes ago, Catacol said:

Shooting from the hip at those who try and make sense of what drives our weather is probably not the way to go. Nobody I have seen try and come up with an analysis ignores the reality of Hadley Cell movement and the increasing dominance of the sub tropical high pressure belt. It is a known context. And clearly there is more we need to do to try and comprehend what impacts the Euro High specifically. For many years data and forecasting has looked almost entirely at the Pacific- and for good reason. The Pacific drives the Rossby Wave pattern that most obviously impacts the major centres of Western population namely the US and Europe. But little to no time is given analysing what is happening over the Atlantic or perhaps over the African continent. Do research papers exist that target the Euro High? I haven't seen any. Perhaps we will start to see some soon.

Those who use teleconnections and who you identify as "ignoring" the Euro High context presumably also include NWP output itself which also got it wrong. As did the Met Office. Sometimes a forecast is a bust because it is a bust - because we are yet to know enough to forecast accurately beyond 5 days.

But to try is better than not to try. There are no prizes for raising the white flag and having a chip at those who got it wrong.

great post!

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Teleconnections are very important...without them we would not be able to phone the missus or your bit on the side or your mother....it would be a disaster... sorry folks a sense of humour is needed while we ride out this ruff long wave.

I think tonight's ECM mean suggests those heights further South are little bit backed further SW...There is also a large chunk of the PV located on the Eastern side! There is some serious cold bottling up right now...when it pops its gonna be extreme for some! Yes that includes us. 

All this talk about the Hadley cell is without doubt a concern right now. But we do not have enough evidence currently regarding it to say for sure if it will further expand and disrupt ours,and Europe's winter patterns! Sometimes you get long drawn out cycles where these sypnotics increase with frequency over many years. Currently you can see a trend of the states seeing greater cold extremes...again this could be down to climate change.

Fast forward a few more years and NW Europe could start to get extreme cold snaps,while others warm up....We don't know how the Gulf stream will act in years to come due to more melting ice flooding the oceans. There are extreme possibilities of major volcanic eruptions which could also dramatically cool our climate...Drastic sunspot reduction...polar magnetic fields shifting..we havnt got a clue what mother nature intends to throw at us..or the wrath of God for that matter...but I will tell you this..this Earth was here long before we were...and it will remain long after our demise! 

Regarding long range predictions,that's all very well and good...but there ain't anyone who knows anything for sure...Even the so called great nostradamaus got plenty wrong! 

And to sum up I feel we could well drop lucky later this month...watch this space.

 

Edited January 1, 2023 by MATTWOLVES

[zubzero]

Meteociel - Cartes Ensemble GFS (ENS/GEFS)

WWW.METEOCIEL.FR

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meteociel propose des rubriques météo temps réel, forums, modeles...

p15 on the GEFS. 

The UK has disappeared, as has my shed,roof and fence 

 

[zubzero]

Meteociel - Cartes Ensemble GFS (ENS/GEFS)

WWW.METEOCIEL.FR

---

meteociel propose des rubriques météo temps réel, forums, modeles...

And p30 has a hurricane like low approaching the Bay of Biscay  

 

[tight isobar]

21 minutes ago, Wold Topper said:

great post!

I agree good post- stuff- yet rossby waving Pacific massing release..is IMO the gospel out amongst a lot! But for the grander scheme- and that’s my thorn! Waving is ripple effect- yet there is a lot of ignorance for pebble in water effects- and larger scale lands. And barrier effect - horizontal p- waving- is most noted when landmass is bounced and sea/ oceanic absorbing is ultimately realised! And that ALWAYS falls on the ATLANTIC flow- and is thee jet- decider! So my point being that AGAIN- we reside in a very very fickle plot- and the overall bk- reverebs- are not critical at all until way after they have already happened! Edit: anyway I’ll wash away with this 1 now .. and keep an eye on the here n now

Edited January 1, 2023 by tight isobar

[Don]

1 hour ago, mountain shadow said:

The Euro high is now a virtual permanent feature due to the expansion of the sub tropical high pressure belt due to global warming.

I'm aware of that but I guess there will always be exceptions i.e. winters where it might be absent?!

[Daniel*]

1 hour ago, johncam said:

Yep ,sad to say you are right Don,  need to climb a hill to see anything wintry 

It’s wintry cold at present in north of Scotland. Snow covered Altnaharra -8.8C at 8pm ob never climbed above 0C today. Different world for most of U.K. 

 

Edited January 1, 2023 by Daniel*

[Don]

3 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

It’s wintry cold at present in north of Scotland. Snow covered Altnaharra -8.8C at 8pm ob never climbed above 0C today. Different world for most of U.K. 

 

Exactly, the north of Scotland and the Highlands can have a decent winter, while it's pants for the rest of the UK!!

[offerman]

Best page of comments i have ever read on the site.

why? 
 

Because anyone who has ever followed/ remembered my posts on the site over the years will remember me discussing these exact comments mentioned here about the Euro slug, Azores / Iberian highs and powerful effects these have on our weather over the years and the effects in our winter this offsetting much of the Teleconetics   .  So to see this discussed for me is so interesting because I’m 100% believe that our local High pressures do have huge affects on our weather . 
 

 Great points All of you , especially( Mountain, Kasim, Nick) .

 

 

 

 

 

[SqueakheartLW]

32 minutes ago, zubzero said:

Meteociel - Cartes Ensemble GFS (ENS/GEFS)

WWW.METEOCIEL.FR

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meteociel propose des rubriques météo temps réel, forums, modeles...

And p30 has a hurricane like low approaching the Bay of Biscay  

 

Hopefully it will blow away those Euro heights and set up a nice BEASTERLY for the UK